The following evening, Sam Ytuarte and Billy Valeriano continued the assault on my opinions. So what were these four, sophisticated NBA minds so worked up about?
Well, I refused to call Stephen Curry "clutch." I told them all that LeBron James and Kevin Durant are at the top of the heap -- in terms of carrying over their regular season production into the postseason -- while Curry, Chris Paul, James Harden and Russell Westbrook are in a similar category...one where their clutchability can be questioned because their playoff production dips below who they've established themselves to be.
Before I get into the comparisons, I want to establish some important points:
(1) I try not to punish or reward an individual player too much for his TEAM'S ultimate success in the postseason. For example, until now, Harden has never had a Rockets' team that could compete with the depth and talent of Steph's Warriors. How can we say trite things like his team has never won it all, when he's never actually had the best team? However, this season, since the Rockets were the No. 1 seed in the West, we can knock Harden if he struggles and Houston ultimately loses in the Western Conference Finals.
(2) When I evaluate players and their teams' runs in the postseason, I compare them to what they have already established. For example, I'm not gonna say, well, Anthony Davis and the Pelicans didn't come through because they lost in the Western Conference Semifinals. Based on what we knew coming in, they went as far as they should have gone, right? They weren't beating the Warriors or Rockets, so they accomplished what they should have, if not better. Their season was a success, even though they lost.
I'm sure more will come up, but let's get into it...
Chris Paul: 10 postseason appearances, 37.4 minutes per game, 21.5 pts, 9.1 asts, 4.8 rebs, 2.6 TOs, 0.1 blks, 2.2 stls, 48.5% FG, 4.9 FT attempts, 84.9% FT, 4.3 3pt attempts and 38% 3pt.
James Harden: 9 postseason appearances, 34.5 minutes per game, 21.5 pts, 5.5 asts, 5.2 rebs, 3.2 TOs, 0.4 blks, 1.7 stls, 42.0% FG, 7.8 FT attempts, 87.1% FT, 6.4 3pt attempts and 33.6% 3pt.
Stephen Curry: 6 postseason appearances, 37.5 minutes per game, 26.1 pts, 6.5 asts, 5.1 rebs, 3.7 TOs, 0.2 blks, 1.8 stls, 45.4% FG, 5.2 FT attempts, 89.1% FT, 10.1 3pt attempts and 41.2% 3pt.
Russell Westbrook: 8 postseason appearances, 37.9 minutes per game, 25.5 pts, 7.8 asts, 6.9 rebs, 3.9 TOs, 0.3 blks, 1.9 stls, 41.3% FG, 7.7 FT attempts, 84.0% FT, 4.6 3pt attempts and 30% 3pt.
Important Points and Observations
1. Directly comparing their numbers isn't the best way to analyze these players. There are dozens of reasons why, but here are a few in short order:
2. Their styles of play are different. Curry relies on the three-point line, as we can see from his 10.1 attempts per playoff game, which are more than DOUBLE both Paul and Westbrook. Harden and Westbrook love to attack the basket and get to the charity stripe, as evidenced by their nearly identical FT attempt averages around 7.7-7.8. Curry and Paul are more around 5. Three extra FT attempts per game can be valuable, particularly at the end of close games.
3. Westbrook's usage rate is through the roof. Behind Michael Jordan, he's second in the history of the NBA in having the ball in his hands. Harden is 17th, Curry is 25th and Paul is 110th. Obviously, that makes Paul more efficient, and Westbrook less. You could say that Westbrook has an unfair advantage in the cumulative statistics, while Paul has a clear disadvantage.
4. As you can see, Harden has the LEAST minutes per game because Scott Brooks was on Mars early in his career. "The Beard" played only 20 minutes per game in the 2009-10 playoffs. Only 31.6 minutes in 10-11, compared to 43.8 with the Rockets in 13-14.
5. These are guards and as you can see from the stats, blocks aren't important. I am officially eliminating blocks from this discussion.
Part II: Ranking the Importance of the Stat Categories (per game)
This is MY opinion, in terms of importance to success in basketball, particularly for star guards like these:
1. Points
2. FG%
3. Assists
4. Free throw attempts
5. Three-point attempts (we know the teams that attempt more threes tend to be more successful in recent years)
6. Turnovers
7. Three-point percentage
8. Rebounds
9. Free throw percentage
10. Steals
1. Points: Curry, Westbrook, Harden/Paul (tie)
2. Points, adjusted for Harden's time in Houston, only (to be fair in terms of usage and being an offensive focal point for his team): Harden, Curry, Westbrook, Paul. Harden averages 27.5 PPG.
3. FG%: Paul, Curry, Harden, Westbrook.
4. Assists: Paul, Westbrook, Curry, Harden.
5. Assists, adjusted for Harden's time in Houston: Paul, Harden, Curry, Westbrook. Harden averages 7.2 APG.
6. FT Attempts: Harden, Westbrook, Curry, Paul.
7. 3pt Attempts: Curry, Harden, Westbrook, Paul.
8. Turnovers (least to most): Paul, Harden, Curry, Westbrook.
9. Turnovers, adjusted for Harden's time in Houston: Paul, Curry, Westbrook, Harden. Harden averages 4.3 turnovers per game.
10. 3pt %: Curry, Paul, Harden, Westbrook.
11. Rebounds: Westbrook, Harden, Curry, Paul.
12. FT%: Curry, Harden, Paul, Westbrook. FT percentage is not very important for this group. Everyone is an excellent FT shooter. None of them are a liability.
13: Steals: Paul, other 3 essentially tied.
14. Steals, adjusted for Harden's time in Houston: Paul, Harden, Westbrook, Curry. Harden moves to 2.0 stls per game. Still negligible with Westbrook and Curry. Overall steals aren't very important within this foursome.
Important Points and Observations
1. We're really splitting hairs here, aren't we?
2. It's really only fair to focus on Harden's time in Houston. Curry, Paul and Westbrook have ALWAYS been playoff focal points for their respective teams. Harden was not a focal point in OKC because of Westbrook and Durant.
3. Harden wins points and free throw attempts.
4. Curry wins three-point attempts, three-point percentage and free throw percentage.
5. Paul wins FG%, assists, least turnovers and steals.
6. Westbrook wins rebounds.
You are free to draw your own conclusions from these results. Depends on the stat categories you value.
Part IV: Career Regular Season Averages
Chris Paul: 13 seasons, 35.3 minutes per game, 18.7 pts, 9.8 asts, 4.5 rebs, 2.4 TOs, 2.3 stls, 47.2 FG%, 4.9 FT attempts, 86.8 FT%, 3.4 3pt attempts and 37.2 3pt %.
James Harden: 9 seasons, 33.8 minutes per game, 23 pts, 6.1 asts, 5.1 rebs, 3.5 TOs, 1.5 stls, 44.3 FG%, 8.3 FT attempts, 85.4 FT%, 6.6 3pt attempts and 36.4 3pt %.
Harden on the Rockets, only: 27.9 PPG, 7.7 APG, 4.3 TOs
Stephen Curry: 9 seasons, 34.4 minutes per game, 23.1 pts, 6.8 asts, 4.4 rebs, 3.2 TOs, 1.8 stls, 47.7 FG%, 4 FT attempts, 90.3 FT%, 7.8 3pt attempts and 43.6% 3pt %.
Russell Westbrook: 10 seasons, 34.4 minutes per game, 23.0 pts, 8.2 asts, 4.0 TOs, 1.7 stls, 43.5 FG%, 7.2 FT attempts, 81.4 FT%, 3.5 3pt attempts and 31.1 3pt %.
Part V: Comparing Regular Season Performance to the Playoffs
In my opinion, this is the BEST way to determine if a player is clutch in the playoffs, status quo or chokes a bit. I mean, WE ARE TALKING ABOUT 4 OF THE BEST PLAYERS IN THE HISTORY OF BASKETBALL, HERE. No one is disputing how good any of these guys are. To pick between them is generally a matter of preference.
But...if we're talking about clutch...well, shouldn't you at least be able to duplicate your regular season output? Maybe not because defenses are tougher and opposing teams are better. Who the hell knows? So many questions and hypotheticals...
The most important comparisons are points, FG%, assists, turnovers, FT attempts, 3pt attempts and 3pt%.
Chris Paul: Increases 2.8 PPG, Drops 0.7 APG, Adds 0.2 TOs, Increases 1.3% FG, exactly the same FT attempts, adds 0.9 3pt attempts and Increases 0.8% in 3pt. Summary: Improves in 4 categories, gets worse in 2, stays the same in 1.
James Harden (first 3 categories, Rockets only, rest are all-inclusive): Drops 0.4 PPG, Drops 0.5 APG, exact same turnovers, Drops 2.3% FG, Drops 2.8 3pt% too lazy for FT and 3pt attempt calculations, but both of his increase in the playoffs. Summary: Improves in 2 categories, gets worse in 4, stays the same in 1.
Stephen Curry: Increases 3 PPG, Drops 0.3 APG, Adds 0.5 TOs, Drops 2.3% FG, Adds 1.2 FT attempts, adds 2.3 3pt attempts and Drops 2.4% in 3pt. Summary: Improves in 3 categories, gets worse in 4.
Russell Westbrook: Increases 2.5 PPG, Drops 0.4 asts, Drops 0.1 TOs, FG% Drops 2.2, Increases 0.5 FT attempts, Increases 3pt attempts by 2.9 and Increases 3 pt% by 2.5. Summary: Improves in 4 categories, gets worse in 2, essentially the same in turnovers.
Important Points and Observations
1. Paul, Curry and Westbrook all have significant point increases. Harden is basically status quo.
2. Paul attempts an extra three-pointer per game in the playoffs, and his percentage goes UP.
3. Harden has notable drops in FG% and 3pt%.
4. Curry has notable drops in FG% and 3pt%.
5. Westbrook has a notable drop in FG%.
6. Who would have thought that Westbrook's three-point percentage would INCREASE by 2.5?
1. Playoff appearances: Paul (10), Harden (9), Westbrook (8) and Curry (6).
2. Conference Finals appearances: Curry (4, 1 pending), Harden (4, 1 pending), Westbrook (4) and Paul (1).
3. NBA Finals appearances: Curry (3), Westbrook (1), Harden (1) and Paul (0).
4. NBA Finals wins: Curry (2), Harden (0), Westbrook (0) and Paul (0).
I think Part V is the best indicator of clutchability, but everyone is certainly entitled to their opinion.
So...what is your conclusion?
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