to New York, it's time to figure out who improved, and who is destined for a season of misery.
. Best of luck, you two! Wishing you all the happiness in the world.
1. New England Patriots - Frascella's Projected Record: 11-5
The Pats weren't very convincing during the 2018 regular season, but we should all get the memo by now - we don't get to see the
real Pats until the postseason. Heading into the playoffs, I remember the talking heads screeching
these just aren't the same Patriots - the Chargers are the better all-around team!
Yeah, um, New England blew them out. The Pats opened up a commanding 35-7 lead and never looked back. They ended up winning easily, 41-28, with most of the Chargers' offense coming during garbage time. Of course, New England went on to win the Super Bowl (vomit) again.
This season will likely follow a similar trajectory - the Pats won't dominate the regular season, but they'll coast to some extent, finding their wins exactly when they need to. After a couple years of waffling,
Rob Gronkowski has finally retired, but
Bill Belichick and
Tom Brady always find efficient ways around personnel losses. The now-available targets will be spread around to rookie WR
N'Keal Harry, upstart
Maurice Harris and new No. 1 TE
Matt LaCosse.
James White and
Phillip Dorsett will obviously continue to get their looks, too.
This is all just pointless babble. The Patriots aren't going anywhere until Brady retires. It all comes down to...when a playoff game is close down the stretch, which team makes the winning plays under pressure?
UPDATE: WR Josh Gordon has been reinstated by the NFL, and should also absorb some of the looks vacated by Gronk.
2.
New York Jets (8-8)
Before I get excited about this team, the Jets have to figure out their cornerback situation. CB1
Trumaine Johnson - who has been an all-around bust since former GM
Mike Maccagnan signed him last offseason - is "week to week" with a hamstring injury, which leaves
Darryl Roberts and
Kyron Brown as the Jets' starters. Who?
The inability to contain opposing wideouts can sink a promising team, so we'll have to keep an eye on New York's questionable corners throughout the year.
In the meantime, I'm just happy Maccagnan,
Todd Bowles and
Jeremy Bates are gone. It's a refreshing new era with GM
Joe Douglas, HC
Adam Gase and DC
Gregg Williams steering the ship. Douglas comes highly-regarded from a Super Bowl champion Eagles' organization; Gase has been consistently
endorsed by the great Peyton Manning and Williams has always been one of the most respected defensive coordinators in the game.
Dowell Loggains takes over from Bates as OC, but we all know Gase will be heavily involved in the playcalling.
Of course,
Sam Darnold is reasonably expected to take "the next step" in year two, but I don't think the Jets are all the way there as a team. After going 4-12 last season, doubling their wins should be a nice step up for Gang Green. The future is bright; but they haven't separated themselves from the Bills in the middle of their division, yet.
UPDATE: Key linebacker
Avery Williamson is now out for the season with a torn ACL. Jets fans can thank Gase for playing Williamson in the second quarter of a meaningless preseason game. A great start to Gase's Jet tenure.
3.
Buffalo Bills (8-8)
Again, the talking heads and "experts" were talkin' alotta shit after the Bills selected
Josh Allen in the 2018 Draft, but those very same critics were awfully quiet down the stretch of last season. Allen was a fantasy football darling, mixing explosive running plays with five consecutive games over 200 yards passing. Prior to that, he had only cracked 200 in game five vs. the Chargers (245, to be exact). Allen's development accelerated, as he was helped along by the surprising play of athletic WR
Robert Foster.
Foster is expected to take a bit of a backseat this year, with the arrivals of veteran WRs
John Brown and
Cole Beasley. Brown should be on the outside with
Zay Jones, while Beasley will man his usual spot in the slot. Foster will get his opportunities in four-wide sets.
Defensively, Buffalo seems to like what it already had in place:
Jerry Hughes and
Lorenzo Alexander led the way in sacks (both are back), and interception leaders
Jordan Poyer and
Matt Milano also return to the same situations. Pro Bowler and de facto defensive leader
Kyle Williams has retired after a very successful 13-year career.
I expect these Bills to be a little bit better than the public's perception. Still not a playoff team, though.
4.
Miami Dolphins (3-13)
Yeesh, rookie head coach
Brian Flores is going to have his hands full here. Coincidentally, I ran into him at a hotel during (the aforementioned) DJ's Bachelor Party, but I didn't wanna say,
man, your team is really going to suck this year.
But...man, his team is really going to suck this year.
We all know what
Ryan Fitzpatrick at the helm means -- some surprisingly productive fantasy games, a lot of head-scratching decisions and mind-boggling interceptions -- and
Josh Rosen won't be any better if he gets the call. WR
DeVante Parker is a perennial disappointment and
Kalen Ballage is rather inexperienced in the backfield, so Flores -- already known for his defensive acumen -- will be leaning heavily upon LBs
Kiko Alonso (125 tackles),
Raekwon McMillan (105 tackles) and Pro Bowl CB
Xavien Howard (7 picks).
However, top pass rushers
Cameron Wake and
Robert Quinn are both gone - to Tennessee and Dallas, respectively. This sure looks like a "rebuilding year" for Miami.
AFC North
1. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6)
People tend to overreact when a team loses marquee names. Don't get me wrong, Antonio Brown and Le'Veon Bell are two of the best individual offensive players in the game, but the Steelers already played without Bell last season, during which James Conner emerged as a major breakout player.
Sure, the Steelers are a better team with both Brown and Bell, but they aren't suddenly going to fall off a cliff. Ben Roethlisberger and Mike Tomlin have been around the block. They know how to handle personnel changes.
The pundits seem to be down on Pittsburgh, given the hype around Baker Mayfield, Odell Beckham and the Browns, as well the "rising star" storyline with Lamar Jackson in Baltimore. It isn't smart to sleep on a veteran team. These Steelers will not go quietly into the night.
2. Baltimore Ravens (9-7)
The natural inclination is to assume Jackson will take another step up this season, but we know what happens to those who make assumptions. I don't believe Jackson will improve dramatically as a passer, but John Harbaugh will play the field position game, dinking and dunking and controlling the short game with Jackson and new addition Mark Ingram.
Baltimore's going to be right in that 8-8, 9-7 range. C.J. Mosley was an awfully big loss for this once-vaunted defense.
3. Cleveland Browns (8-8)
Toot Toooooot! All aboard the Hype Train!
Every year I pinpoint the hype teams, and virtually every single time they fall short of lofty expectations. I have no gripes about the offensive core of Mayfield, Beckham, Jarvis Landry, Nick Chubb and David Njoku; this projection isn't strictly about personnel. Just keep in mind that winning as a unit is a collective process. I admire Mayfield's perseverance and cockiness, but I'm not just going to rocket this team to 10 or 11 wins. They are in a similar category with the Jets and Bills - three teams with sophomore quarterbacks that have some nice pieces in place.
Creating a winning culture is a gradual process. The Hype Train is simply moving too fast, here. The Browns will be in a position to win 10 or 11 games, but they'll lose a handful of heartbreakers, which will push them down to 7 or 8 wins. Growing pains of a young, improving team. Mark my words.
4. Cincinnati Bengals (4-12)
Maybe the Bengals will be more interesting with youngster Zac Taylor at the helm, but A.J. Green and John Ross are already hurt. It's always something with this franchise. Green and/or Tyler Eifert always seem to be hurt, either intermittently or simultaneously. With A.J. at 100% and low expectations of this team, I could have projected 6 or 7 wins, but Taylor already admitted Green will miss regular season games. He's simply too valuable for a team this thin on top-tier talent. Should be another disappointing year for Cincy fans.
AFC South
1. Houston Texans (11-5)
Nice pickup of Duke Johnson, here. D'Onta Foreman never became what the organization initially believed he could be, so Johnson becomes a clear and immediate upgrade as a complement to vanilla RB1 Lamar Miller. Will Fuller is back, and Houston needs him at 100% if it wants to be a serious contender. We all saw how much this offense struggled after he went down last season. They tried Demaryius Thomas, but he wasn't much help. Fuller and DeAndre Hopkins form one of the top three or four WR tandems in the league, and the Texans will need them both to compete with the likes of the Patriots and Chiefs.
On defense, it's the same ol' story - J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney will lead the way. Safety Tashaun Gipson steps in for Tyrann Mathieu, who is now hunting for a Super Bowl in KC.
2. Indianapolis Colts (9-7)
When I hear the Colts are "cautiously optimistic" about Andrew Luck's status for Week 1, alarm bells immediately go off in my head. Sure, that likely means they'll push him out there for the opener, but when Luck is banged up, he tends to continue getting hurt. When he's healthy, he tends to stay healthy. It's like a season-to-season thing with him. This already feels like a year in which he misses at least three or four games, and that takes a potential 10 or 11-win team down to 8 or 9.
I believe in head coach
Frank Reich, though. With or without Luck, he'll find ways to keep this club competitive.
3.
Jacksonville Jaguars (7-9)
After falling off the map in '18, the Jags are re-emerging as a sexy pick this year. Everyone seems to love the quarterback upgrade from
Blake Bortles to
Nick Foles;
Leonard Fournette is expected to enjoy a bounce-back year, and solid vet
Chris Conley was added to bolster Jacksonville's receiving corps.
And don't get me wrong - I LOVE Nick Foles (
thanks for beating the Pats, Nicky!) - but
Doug Pederson is a better and more innovative head coach than
Doug Marrone. Pederson is an unassuming fellow, but he can squeeze more than he should out of a (somewhat) limited veteran like Foles. We know what Marrone is going to do, on the other hand - he's going to take the air out of the ball and play everything safe. Foles' efficiency numbers will be "protected," but what about effectiveness and the autonomy to go out there and engineer victories from the offensive side of the ball?
Of course Foles will be better than Bortles, but Jacksonville's offensive system will ultimately hinder the former.
On the bright side, the Jags can't possibly be as bad as they were last season, thanks to a still-formidable defense lead by CB
Jalen Ramsey, LB
Myles Jack, veteran DT
Marcell Dareus and elite pass rusher and Pro Bowler
Calais Campbell. Star linebacker
Telvin Smith is bizarrely
sitting out the season, though.
4. Tennessee Titans (6-10)
Mike Vrabel did a helluva job as a rookie head coach, considering the facts that his offense was putrid and defense just okay. How the hell did the Titans win 9 games? Let's give Vrabel some of the credit for squeezing every possible ounce out of a sub-par roster, but lightning doesn't strike twice. The Titans are going to lose a bunch of those tight ones this time around. Many moons ago, I used to speak highly of
Marcus Mariota, but I've simply lost all faith in him.
This Tennessee team is screaming mediocrity.
AFC West
1. Kansas City Chiefs (13-3)
He has ALL of the physical gifts. He has the moxie and determination. What's more...he has the magic. He has the flair. Simply put...the kid can do no wrong.
Andy Reid is one of the greatest head coaches in league history - he needs that Super Bowl. The Chiefs were one coin toss away from it last year. The Pats won the overtime toss in the AFC Championship Game, and we all knew whomever won the toss was marching down the field and scoring a touchdown. Funny too, because the Patriots absolutely stifled the Rams' "high-octane" offense in that UGLY Super Bowl. Yet, they had no answer for Mahomes, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. No answer for Reid's disorienting offensive schemes, either.
So, we all know KC has the offense to get it done. What about that defense that was often swiss cheese last year?
There's no reason for me to beat around the bush...these guys ain't fuckin' around. GM Brett Veach and Reid went buckwild, trading for star DE Frank Clark (13 sacks), signing Pro Bowl safety Tyrann Mathieu, trading for DE Emmanuel Ogbah, signing DE Alex Okafor and savvy vet CB Morris Claiborne.
Yeah, the time is now. These Chiefs aren't waiting around. I believe in Mahomes. Reid is due. If I had to bet on a Super Bowl champ right this second, I'd take Kansas City all the way.
2. Los Angeles Chargers (10-6)
This Melvin Gordon holdout situation is more important than you may think. Sure, it has fantasy football implications in every possible format, but the public wants to think Austin Ekeler is a "good enough" replacement if push comes to shove. And that just ain't true. Ekeler is perfect where he is, as a complementary No. 2 back with top-tier receiving skills out of the backfield. He is NOT an every down grinder. I'm bumping the Chargers down from 12 to 10 wins, because who the heck knows what'll end up happening with Gordon.
With all hands on deck, this is a very solid all-around club. Probably fourth-best in the AFC, behind the Chiefs, Patriots and Texans. The Chargers will need Gordon's consistency in the end, though.
3. Oakland Raiders (6-10)
Yeah, Antonio Brown is creating a media circus, but this should be a better team with AB, Tyrell Williams, Richie Incognito, Vontaze Burfict, Lamarcus Joyner, J.J. Nelson and first-round rookies Clelln Ferrell, Josh Jacobs and Johnathan Abram.
But hey, we're still talkin' about Jon Gruden and Derek Carr as coach and quarterback, here. How excited can I possibly get? Bumping them up two wins is the best I can do.
4. Denver Broncos (6-10)
The wheels are comin' off for John Elway.
Tim Tebow. Mark Sanchez. Trevor Siemian. Paxton Lynch. Brock Osweiler. One quarterback circus after another. The legendary Peyton Manning is and has been dearly missed.
And now over-the-hill Joe Flacco?
Of course, "Joe Cool" isn't the answer, but maybe he'll play a bit better because everyone is doubting him. He's that type of dude. When everything is status quo, he just kind of goes through the motions. He becomes Joe Cool to a fault - more like Joe Sleepy or Joe Shitty. But now, everyone (including me) is making fun of Elway for thinking Flacco might be the answer. He's not. But he'll mix in a few monster games the consensus doesn't expect.
Who cares, anyway? This team isn't going anywhere this season.
NATIONAL FOOTBALL CONFERENCE
NFC East
1. Philadelphia Eagles (11-5)
This feels like the season Carson Wentz finally stays healthy. I really like the pickup of DeSean Jackson, to open up even easier opportunities for Alshon Jeffery and Zach Ertz. I think Wentz will enjoy the fact that Foles isn't around, lookin' over his shoulder. Foles is a great guy and team-first professional, but Wentz heard all the noise. Whenever he went down, we'd hear, eh, it doesn't matter, they have Foles anyway!
It shouldn't be that way when you have a young franchise quarterback who was very nearly a league MVP (if not for a devastating, season-ending injury). It's now or never for Wentz. Shit or get off the pot. Don't become that "bust" who ended up getting hurt every single year.
So, Jackson, Ertz and Jeffery will certainly help combat the worst-case scenario, as will rookie RB Miles Sanders. Philly needs fresh legs at that position. The Jay Ajayi/Corey Clement/Darren Sproles/Wendell Smallwood, etc. thing didn't work out. They need fresh legs, stability and playmaking, and they certainly hope Sanders will provide all three right out of the gate. Jordan Howard was also added at running back, but he falls into the former category - a plodder who simply can't make an enormous impact on his own. I think he's just a name. Fantasy football coaches made him into more than he actually is.
Defensively, CB Ronald Darby and DT Malik Jackson should be helpful signings. The AFC East should be a two-horse race between the Eagles and Cowboys.
2. Dallas Cowboys (9-7)
This defense was somethin' else last season, wasn't it?
Linebacker
Leighton Vander Esch was a revelation -- 140 tackles, 2 picks and 7 passes defended -- and a Pro Bowler, as was DE
Demarcus Lawrence (10.5 sacks). MLB
Jaylon Smith was all over the field (121 tackles).
Randy Gregory and
Tyrone Crawford were relentless rushers of the opposing quarterback, too. Gregory has since been (basically)
kicked out of the league, but vet
Robert Quinn has arrived to pick up the slack (after his short suspension).
So, yeah, that Dallas D is lookin' pretty damn good, but we're all well too aware of the elephant in the room:
It seems like Ezekiel Elliott is very willing to sit out this season. It also seems like Jerry Jones is very willing to continue playing hardball. I'm happy to hear all of the hype about young Tony Pollard, but let's get real here - this team ain't winnin' the division without Zeke. It's as simple as that. Jones is between a rock and a hard place, here.
3. New York Giants (6-10)
I REALLY want to take the Giants' over, but I can't believe it's at 6!
This is totally just a contrarian play. I know the entire world is on the under. I know the Giants' receiving corps is in shambles. I know the Internet erupted in hysterics when New York drafted Daniel Jones. I know Eli Manning is clearly over the hill.
But football is a funny game. A game of inches. A game of bounces. A missed field goal here, a blocked punt there, a bad call anywhere. If you're a shitty team like the Giants, your goal has to be to win close games. That's it. You're not gonna be running up the score, Chiefs' style.
So,
nobody thinks they are going over 6. I really want them to. I want to project them to be 7-9, but the Giants' sub-par personnel simply doesn't allow me to. As
my great friend Matt Zylbert would say..."play for the push" on this one.
4. Washington Redskins (5-11)
What is it with the Redskins and ugly quarterback competitions?
Better yet, what is it with the Redskins and big-name coaches and shitty quarterback competitions?
Remember that time with Steve Spurrier, Danny Wuerffel, Shane Matthews and I don't know - maybe Patrick Ramsey?
Then we had Mike Shanahan dealing with John Beck and Rex Grossman.
Now we have Jay Gruden throwing darts at the wall between unseasoned rookie Dwayne Haskins, journeyman Case Keenum and perennial backup Colt McCoy?
Yuck. Just...yuck. I'm starting to feel like the "Gruden Coaching Tree" is a myth - the idea of Jon and Jay being football masterminds is slipping further and further away from my consciousness. The "Gruden Coaching Tree" is just another way of saying...coaches change teams in the NFL. They change job titles. They get promotions. Some of them may or may not have worked with Jon or Jay Gruden, who worked with Andy Reid and Mike Holmgren, and so on and so forth.
The Redskins aren't going anywhere. The Raiders aren't going anywhere. And yet, the Gruden name hangs around.
NFC North
My apologies, gang...it's 11:16 p.m. EST and I'm going to speed through the rest if I can...
1. Chicago Bears (10-6)
2. Minnesota Vikings (9-7)
3. Green Bay Packers (9-7)
4. Detroit Lions (6-10)
The quick rundown...
I'm giving the Bears the division because Matt Nagy has quickly emerged as one of the best and most innovative head coaches in the NFL...I do think Mitchell Trubisky will take a step back, which is why I'm dialing Chicago back from 12 to 10 wins...Mike Zimmer says the Vikings are going to become more of a ground-and-pound team, which is fine, but ultimately my issue with this team is Kirk Cousins...I'm not sure he'll ever get any team over the hump...Aaron Rodgers is definitely going to punch "wunderkind" Matt LaFleur in the face...Rodgers doesn't like anyone telling him what to do in the huddle, let alone an unproven kid who already thinks he knows everything...if Rodgers stays healthy the Packers get a guaranteed 8 or 9 wins, but I simply don't like the coach/QB combination here...this will probably be Matt Patricia's last season as the ineffective head coach of the Lions.
NFC South
1. New Orleans Saints (11-5)
2. Atlanta Falcons (9-7)
3. Tampa Bay Bucs (8-8)
4. Carolina Panthers (7-9)
I'm reading an awful lot of articles about Drew Brees' "diminishing arm strength," but the Saints are coming into this season with unfinished business after a bogus NFC Championship loss to the less-deserving Rams...The Saints will drop down a couple regular season wins, but Brees is going to want this Super Bowl badly as he inches toward retirement...I'm thinking Saints vs. Chiefs, at this very moment...The Falcons are the Falcons...sometimes they blow you away with electric offense and other times they make you vomit with god awful defensive play...Bruce Arians is the right man for the job in Tampa...but you still can't win more than 8 games with Jameis Winston as your starting quarterback; he simply makes too many ill-advised decisions in critical spots...Cam Newton is declining...I like the young receivers in D.J. Moore and Curtis Samuel, but Cam is holding on to the ball longer and longer...I'm not sure how Carolina moves forward as a franchise.
NFC West
1. Los Angeles Rams (12-4)
2. Seattle Seahawks (10-6)
3. San Francisco 49ers (6-10)
4. Arizona Cardinals (3-13)
I like that the Rams don't play any of their starters in the preseason...They'll come out fresh and ready to rock...Sean McVay will continue to outcoach his counterparts throughout the regular season, but I'll be rooting against him come playoff time after that EMBARRASSING all-around performance in the Super Bowl...Russell Wilson and Pete Carroll just find a way to grind it out and get it done...Jimmy Garoppolo is far too much of a wild card to put any stock in Kyle Shanahan's 49ers....Here comes the Hypeeeee Train again...The pundits seem to love the young and "fresh" QB/Coach duo of Kyler Murray and Kliff Kingsbury, but we're talking about a rookie head coach and quarterback, here...Ignore all the noise about "fancy" formations and breakneck offensive pace...This inexperienced team isn't winning this season. Take their under. Trust me.
FRASCELLA'S NFL PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS
AFC Playoff Teams
1. Chiefs
2. Patriots
3. Texans
4. Steelers
5. Chargers
6. Ravens
NFC Playoff Teams
1. Rams
2. Saints
3. Eagles
4. Bears
5. Seahawks
6. Falcons
AFC Playoff Bracket
BYES: Chiefs and Patriots
Wild Card Weekend: Texans over Ravens and Steelers over Chargers
Divisional Round: Chiefs over Steelers and Patriots over Texans
AFC Championship: Chiefs over Patriots, 38-24
NFC Playoff Bracket
BYES: Rams and Saints
Wild Card Weekend: Eagles over Falcons and Seahawks over Bears
Divisional Round: Rams over Seahawks and Saints over Eagles
NFC Championship: Saints over Rams, 27-24
FRASCELLA'S SUPER BOWL PREDICTION
A reversal of fortunes! The Chiefs and Saints get it done this season.
In the end, it's "Magic" Mahomes over aging Brees, 38-21. Andy Reid can only hope!
Congrats again, Lauren and DJ!
