Saturday, July 14, 2018

Shocking NBA Prediction: Why the Brooklyn Nets Will Make the Playoffs

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PART I: Marks and Atkinson Change the Culture of a Floundering Franchise

When former GM Billy King traded years worth the draft picks to acquire Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett at the tail end of their Hall of Fame NBA careers, the Nets franchise fell into a deep, dark hole with no hope for survival.

The Pierce-KG-Joe Johnson-Deron Williams core was eventually dispatched from the postseason by LeBron James' original Heat superteam in unceremonious fashion. Money-is-no-object owner Mikhail Prokhorov went all-in with King, and the Nets lost. They didn't have a single chip left on the table.

Of course, King's head had to roll. Enter Sean Marks, a former assistant GM and coach for the enviable Spurs. This was a logical and acceptable hire from the get-go. You want to pull on and off-court talent from the organizations that know how to win, and Prokhorov did exactly that with Marks. The best basketball is team basketball, and the Spurs have always subscribed and committed to that successful ideology. There was little doubt that Marks would bring the same philosophy to Brooklyn.

The same could be said of his head coach and partner-in-crime, Kenny Atkinson. When the Hawks were successful with the triumvirate of Jeff Teague, Paul Millsap and Al Horford under HC Mike Budenholzer, they mimicked the style championed in San Antonio. Atkinson was Budenholzer's right-hand man, and the former clearly took a liking to the pass-and-cut, constant-movement, team-first, unselfish offensive basketball that Atlanta played on a nightly basis.

Not surprisingly, Budenholzer had previously worked as a top assistant for Gregg Popovich. Pop passed his knowledge down to Budenholzer, who then proceeded to do the same for Atkinson. From there, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to make the connection between Atkinson and Marks. It's no coincidence that these are like-minded individuals.

Marks and Atkinson have made things very simple for their young Nets: We play fast. We push the ball. We run, cut and finish hard. We share the ball, and we always support our teammates. No bullshit. All professionalism.

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Coming off the best year of his professional career, SG Joe Harris was a sleeper name on the free agent market this offseason. Considering his three-point shooting, surprising finishing ability, consistent energy and all-around efficiency, many teams expressed interest in signing Joe. However, he stuck with the Nets. His remarks were the most interesting part of the situation:

“It’s a family-first organization and they want that to be noticeable in the organization with the players,” said Harris. “They don’t force anything on us. But guys, we tend to gravitate and want to hang out and be around each other. There’s good chemistry and continuity. Ultimately it’s going to help us be better. The teams that have got good continuity, good chemistry typically have more success.”
“I believe in Kenny. I believe in Sean.”
These are pointed comments from a player who had a clear opportunity to play for more "proven" franchises -- teams that are expected to reach the postseason this upcoming year. Harris sees what Marks and Atkinson are building. The oncoming wave is gathering height and momentum. The first major step is coming in the 2018-19 NBA season. 
PART II: Spotting Diamonds in the Rough
The key to long-term success is management. Despite my Mets' success in 2015, I remained concerned about their future because of an ill-prepared front office led by Sandy Alderson, who is out of touch with the current standards of player evaluation and development. The Mets have since fallen off the map, and their inability to evaluate talent dooms them long-term. Any potential rebuild won't work because they'll acquire insufficient packages of incoming talent. 
The Nets don't have that problem with Marks, assistant GM Trajan Langdon and Atkinson. Let's take a look at some of their incredible finds:
1. Signing scrap-heap free agent G Spencer Dinwiddie in December of 2016. 
Dinwiddie was a second-round selection by the Pistons in the 2014 draft, and no one ever seemed to think much of him. After a mostly unsuccessful tenure in Detroit, they traded him to the Bulls for Cameron Bairstow, who has been an absolute zero at the NBA level. After doing little-to-nothing in Chicago, the Bills waived Dinwiddie, leaving him out in the cold. 
NBA execs weren't knocking down his door, but Marks and Atkinson saw something. At 6-foot-6, 200 pounds with a sneakily long wingspan and a spectacular first step, Dinwiddie possesses physical gifts that are usually sought after. The problem was that the Pistons and Bulls normally had him playing off the ball, on the wings or in the corners. Dinwiddie has a nice outside stroke, but Atkinson quickly realized that he is at his best with the rock in his hands. Dinwiddie's quick first step allows him to drive both right and left, and he's quite good around the rim. During D'Angelo Russell's injury absence, Dinwiddie was Brooklyn's undisputed go-to-guy. The latter displayed a shockingly-strong ability to close tight games, something Russell -- despite being the bigger name -- simply hasn't been able to do. 
Long story short, Dinwiddie became a finalist for the NBA's Most Improved Player award. His confidence should be at an all-time high, and he'll be an integral part of the Nets' success this upcoming season. 
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2. Getting G/F Caris LeVert and C Jarrett Allen late in the 1st rounds of the 2016 and '17 drafts, respectively. 
If you really want to evaluate executives, see how they do in a round dominated by busts. Look around LeVert in the '16 draft -- Guerschon Yabusele, Henry Ellenson, Malachi Richardson, Furkan Korkmaz and more of the like -- yet Marks and Atkinson nabbed a kid who can drive, shoot, defend and successfully play multiple positions. LeVert is long, athletic and versatile -- a perfect fit for the style of today's NBA game. That's a move by executives who are in touch with the rapidly-evolving nature of the league. 
Allen was selected after Terrance Ferguson, T.J. Leaf, D.J. Wilson and Justin Patton. Yikes. What were all of those teams doing? The near 7-footer went on to become a surprising stud as a rookie -- finishing with flair and athleticism, showcasing top-notch coordination, blocking shots and making himself available to drive-and-dish teammates. The early comparisons to Clint Capela and DeAndre Jordan are most certainly warranted. Allen is a much better free throw shooter, though. Allen is a catch-and-finish big who shows the potential to step back into the midrange over time. He has a very soft touch for a true big. 
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3. Signing Joe Harris in the first place. 
In his rookie season, Harris played 51 games for the Cavs, in which he averaged just 2.7 points per game on 40% shooting. The next year he played 5 games and averaged 0.6 points.
That ensuing offseason, Marks and Atkinson sought him out
Why? How? What exactly did they see?
Harris quickly rewarded his bosses with the best two years of his career. He's improved in every category, and he consistently provides the perimeter shooting that is an absolute necessity these days. He knocks down his standstill shots, as well as curls and rolls off down-screens. When the D closes too hard, he puts the ball on the deck and finishes at the rim. Joe Harris is a smart player. Joe Harris is a VERY good all-around professional basketball player. 
PART III: The East Is Wideeee Open
LeBron is gone, the Celtics and Raptors should be locked in atop the conference, while many other playoff spots should be up for grabs. We can pencil in the 76ers, Wizards, Bucks and Pacers for the postseason, but teams like the Hawks, Magic and Knicks are essentially tanking. The actual number of teams in competition for playoff spots is shockingly small. The window of opportunity is open for the Nets, and they have the personnel and management to get it done. 
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Russell, Dinwiddie, LeVert, Allen and Harris are joined by DeMarre Carroll, Allen Crabbe, Rondae-Hollis Jefferson and Ed Davis in Atkinson's rotation. These Nets don't have any dead weight. They are fast, athletic, versatile and hungry. Yes, they lack the big-name franchise player -- which is why I would love to trade Russell and a 1st rounder for Kemba Walker -- but they rarely run into mid-game lulls. Their starters and reserves are interchangeable in a positive way; so in the end, the ultimate key for Atkinson's club will be closing tight games. They weren't able to do that last season, but I'm certain Atkinson and Marks will figure out the right ways to utilize Russell, Dinwiddie, LeVert and Carroll down the stretch. 
You heard it here first...the 2018-19 Brooklyn Nets are making the playoffs.

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