Headlined by the young, powerful duo of Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez, the New York Yankees already boasted one of the more intimidating lineups in the MLB. Now, with Derek Jeter stripping his Miami Marlins down to spare parts, his former organization is reaping the benefits in the form of super slugger Giancarlo Stanton.
But, as the old saying goes, with great power comes great responsibility.
Will Stanton be able to withstand the unrivaled pressure of performing in New York? Can he possibly meet the expectations of a fanbase dead set on World Series-or-bust?
Over at Fenway, big-money free agent signee J.D. Martinez will be asked to replace the clutch hitting of "Big Papi" David Ortiz. The Boston Red Sox won 93 games en route to an AL East division title last season, but for the second straight year, fell completely flat in the postseason. While youthful all-around talents like Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi and Rafael Devers hold down the fort during the regular season, Martinez will be leaned upon for timely, high-priced production in the playoffs. We'll see if Stanton and Martinez can meet unrealistic expectations.
5. Toronto Blue Jays - Frascella's projection: 74-88
Not too long ago the Jays were defined by their homer-smashing trio of Edwin Encarnacion, Jose "Joey Bats" Bautista and Josh Donaldson. Boasting that triumvirate of studs, Toronto was able to compete with the big boys from New York and Boston.
Now, just a few years later, Donaldson is the only remaining basher. Encarnacion sits in the middle of the Cleveland Indians' order, while Joey Bats sits, unsigned, on the abnormally-crowded free agent market.
I just don't like what President/CEO Mark Shapiro and GM Ross Atkins are doing with this roster. Honestly, they seem out of touch. Troy Tulowitzki and Russell Martin are already past their primes, and now they add Curtis Granderson as a semi-regular in their outfield? Where's the upside, here? Just watch their outfielder strikeouts pile up with Grandy alongside Randal Grichuk, another offseason addition. Grichuk makes a bit more sense -- he's a young player who flashed some pop with the St. Louis Cardinals -- but it seems like his offensive holes are unfixable. Don't pitch this kid middle-in, and you'll be okay. Sliders and fastballs down and away.
Devon Travis is another kid who always seems to generate positive buzz, but never delivers in any meaningful way. I'm not a fan.
On the bright side, I think Justin Smoak has finally turned the corner in his enigmatic career; Kevin Pillar is a solid and spunky all-around ballplayer; Kendrys Morales is a reliable professional hitter, and of course Donaldson is a fine centerpiece.
In the pen, closer Roberto Osuna is coming off a sparkling season, but I don't think he's untouchable long-term. We'll see how the newly-acquired ex-Cardinals closer Seung Hwan Oh bounces back after a disappointing and injury-riddled 2017 campaign.
All in all, no one's afraid of this Blue Jays club. I really can't see a scenario where they make any serious noise in this crowded division.
4. Tampa Bay Rays - Frascella's projection: 76-86
On paper, since the Jays have some recognizable names like Donaldson, Tulowitzki and Stroman, I feel like most would assume they'll finish ahead of the bargain-basement Rays. However, I simply think the Rays are better prepared and managed than the Jays.
President Brian Auld and GM Erik Neander essentially do what Billy Beane has always done in Oakland, but they do it a little better. A handful of years ago, the Rays were ahead of the curve on defensive shifting, and since owner Stu Sternberg's spending is similar to John Fisher's and Stephen Schott's, Auld, Neander and their forward-thinking team are forced to explore creative ways to steal some wins.
Also, I think Kevin Cash is a more open-minded manager than traditionalist John Gibbons.
In terms of personnel, gone are Evan Longoria, Steven Souza, Corey Dickerson, Logan Morrison, Jake Odorizzi and Alex Cobb, among others. But the question is, at this stage in their respective careers, do any of those guys make-or-break a franchise? On the whole they will be missed, but these Rays only won 80 games last year. Let's not get carried away, Dick Vitale.
I mean, let's be real about it -- the Rays need a miracle to outplay the Yankees, Red Sox and Orioles. They might as well save money on payroll, right? Sternberg relies more on Cash, Auld and Neander than his players.
On the field, I think catcher Wilson Ramos is in for a nice bounce-back year. Kevin Kiermaier is probably their best all-around player, and maybe SS Adeiny Hechavarria will make "the leap" this season. But, honestly, there isn't much here offensively.
The strength of Cash's team, if any, will be his pitching. I think Chris Archer puts it all together this year. Front-line ace. Lefty Blake Snell never seems to be able to harness his ability, and Nathan Eovaldi is one of those guys who looks good, but one way or another, the wheels fall off. Jacob Faria is a decent middle-of-the-rotation hurler.
Joining Archer as strengths of this team, are closer Alex Colome and setup man Daniel Hudson. Tampa's pen should be solid at the back, but the middle innings are shaky with scraps like Sergio Romo.
That's probably too many words for a team that isn't making the playoffs.
3. Baltimore Orioles - Frascella's projection: 84-78
If everything breaks right, Buck Showalter's club could return to playoff relevancy. If the bumps in the road are continuous, well, you saw what happened to them last year. After a respectable 89-win total in 2016, the O's tumbled down to 75 in '17. Manny Machado got off to a brutal start. Chris "Crush" Davis was horrible. Mark Trumbo fell from grace, and all-star closer Zach Britton only threw 37 innings.
The bad news is that Britton is again on the DL, and that will last (at least) a couple months. The good news is that Brad Brach, Darren O'Day and Mychal Givens are quality big-league relievers. I'd say Baltimore has to worry more about its starting pitching than relief. SP3 Andrew Cashner is coming off a shockingly good year, but it had to be a fluke. He somehow produced a 3.40 ERA pitching in Texas, despite striking out only 86 in 166 innings. I have a feeling his ERA will approach 5.00 this season.
Kevin Gausman should normalize in the opposite direction, while Dylan Bundy hangs around his 2016 and '17 average stats. After Cashner, the back-end of this rotation is a disaster. Chris Tillman looked finished last year.
The extent of the Orioles' success will hinge on the production levels of unpredictable guys like Trumbo, Davis, Beckham, Gausman and Cashner. I think they come up short.
2. Boston Red Sox - Frascella's projection: 89-73
Some (minor?) concerns that can chop a few wins off your total: (1) Emotional leader and steady contributor Dustin Pedroia (knee) is out until at least mid-May. (2) Drew Pomeranz, who is probably Boston's second-best starting pitcher, is heading into the season with left forearm "tightness." The lumbering left-hander threw over 170 innings back-to-back years, despite never exceeding 97 in his preceding five seasons. I wouldn't touch him in fantasy drafts this year. (3) Smooth, hard-throwing lefty Eduardo Rodriguez (knee) is also beginning the season on the DL. We're not talking about megastars here; but these are three key contributors.
Otherwise, Alex Cora's club should be able to hang with the hated-rival Yanks throughout the year. Martinez, Betts, Benintendi and Devers will lead the way offensively, with respectable contributions from Hanley Ramirez, Xander Bogaerts and perhaps Jackie Bradley.
Superstar Chris Sale heads up Dave Dombrowski's rotation; but you can't be too sure about Pomeranz, veteran David Price or up-and-down righty Rick Porcello. The latter won the 2016 AL Cy Young, only to follow up that career-best campaign with an 11-17 record and an ugly 4.65 ERA. The real Porcello sits somewhere between the two, around 4.25 or 4.30.
Generational closer Craig Kimbrel holds down the 9th inning, with flamethrower Joe Kelly and wild card Carson Smith leading up to him.
This is a rock solid all-around ballclub, and I DO think Martinez will deliver in a major way for them. However, in the end, I don't think the core of this particular Red Sox group can match the moxie of their dire enemies from the Bronx. I just don't like what I saw from Boston in the playoffs the last couple years.
1. New York Yankees - Frascella's projection: 95-67
Right off the bat -- there's just no way Giancarlo Stanton can repeat his production from last season. Now, I know that's not exactly going out on a limb -- the guy hit 59 homers and drove in 132 runs -- but I think we'll see a significant drop off. You might be fooled, considering the favorable transition from massive Marlins Park to the Yankee Stadium bandbox, but the greater considerations are unattainable expectations and meaningful, high-pressure ballgames. The Marlins were never a serious contender last year, and they had about 11 people at their low-intensity games. Stanton was comfortable. Just playing ball and having fun with no expectations or unwanted scrutiny.
Last year he hit .281 with 59 HRs and 132 RBI, and this season I say he drops to .257, 36 HRs and 103 RBI. Not exactly an MVP-type year.
Regardless, the success of Brian Cashman's club clearly doesn't hinge on one player. As I've been saying to many of my friends in private conversations, I believe that Aaron Judge has the chance to become a LeBron James-type star for the MLB. He has the size, intimidation, physical gifts and marketability to become the face of the league. I love his plate coverage -- I mean, who doesn't? -- and the fact that he simply doesn't miss mistakes. If you make your pitches you can get him out, but if you miss, he's going to make you pay. His improvement from 2016 to '17 was unparalleled. Not quite sure I've ever seen anything like that. Judge is just a special talent.
Speaking of improvement, SS Didi Gregorius gets better and better every year. Can you imagine trying to fill the vacated shoes of the legendary Derek Jeter? Well, Didi has been more than up to the task. His homers have jumped from 9 to 20 to 25, RBI from 56 to 70 to 87 and BA from .265 to .276 to .287. That's accelerated development. Didi just has that "it" factor. He's confident and plays with a chip on his shoulder. He's my kind of ballplayer.
Gary Sanchez has the swag of a kid who was born to crush baseballs. Most righties don't have "loose" swings -- that terminology is usually reserved for sweet-swinging lefties like Ken Griffey Jr., Robinson Cano and Rafael Palmeiro -- but Sanchez's stroke looks awfully pretty to me. Sometimes he looks like he's ready to take a nap up there. Don't make a mistake inside to him. He'll hammer the baseball down to the size of a golf ball. It's funny...his approach, swing and demeanor at the plate all remind me of Manny Ramirez; lo and behold, the Marketing Director of John Frascella Sports, Matt "Marty" DeSantis, texted this to me last night.
1B Greg Bird is an unpredictable wild card; 2B Brandon Drury was a nice, sneaky pickup; Brett Gardner is good, if a bit enigmatic, and OF Aaron Hicks was a find. Man, Cashman is a savage. Might be the best exec in all of sports.
On the bump, I don't think Luis Severino's good year-bad year trend will continue. He's ready to string together his second-straight, high-quality season. Masahiro Tanaka and CC Sabathia are calming influences -- though Sabathia will not be able to replicate his success from last year -- and Sonny Gray is above average. I like young lefty Jordan Montgomery. It wouldn't surprise me if he ends up the third-best pitcher in Larry Rothschild's rotation.
Then there's the bullpen. I mean, what can I say? This is one of the most talented bullpens in MLB history. Aroldis Chapman is the hardest thrower in the history of the game. David Robertson has been a top-tier reliever throughout his lengthy career. Dellin Betances may have the best pure stuff in the world. Tommy Kahnle is a flamethrowing bulldog. Chad Green is the best middle reliever in either league, and Adam Warren is a very respectable long man.
In the end, the Red Sox are very good.
But these Yankees are great.
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