Sandy Alderson and His Carefully-Crafted Myth of Success

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I've been in a deep depression since Wednesday, when the Mets announced they were rewarding GM Sandy Alderson with a contract extension. 

After winning 90 games in 2015 and falling apart in the World Series, dropping to 87 wins and a Wild Card loss in '16 and tumbling down to an embarrassing 70-win total in '17, Fred and Jeff Wilpon felt this was the right time to show Alderson their appreciation. Usually owners reward their staffers when things are trending upward, but that's a discussion for a different day. 

Ultimately, the question is, does Alderson deserve the credit for the Mets' mini-resurgence, which has since dissipated? 

My belief is that Alderson's myth of success hinges on one age-old, all-powerful force:

Dumb luck. 

Part I: The Carlos Gomez Trade

On July 29, 2015, Alderson very nearly traded SP Zack Wheeler and infielder Wilmer Flores to the Milwaukee Brewers for mercurial OF Carlos Gomez. The New York Post's Joel Sherman reported the deal as done, and the news trickled all the way down to the field, where Flores became famous for balling his eyes out.

Shortly after, in a last-second twist, the deal fell apart. Initial reports suggested the deal died due to a physical which revealed an issue with Gomez's hip, but the reality was likely another instance of the Wilpons looking to save every possible dollar. The Mets didn't want to cover enough of Gomez's contract, so shortly after, he was traded to the Houston Astros. Clearly, they weren't too concerned about his mysterious hip issue. 

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So while the deal never actually went through, it revealed Alderson's hand -- at the trade deadline, his priority was Carlos Gomez. Of course we all know what happened next; out of necessity, Alderson traded stud pitching prospect Michael Fulmer to the Detroit Tigers for Yoenis Cespedes. 

Immediately following the trade, Cespedes went on the greatest second-half offensive run in the history of the Mets franchise. In only 57 games, Cespedes scored 39 runs, stole 4 bases, hit 4 triples, 14 doubles, 17 home runs and drove in 44 runs. As a frame of reference, Cespedes had been in the MLB since 2012, and his career season-high in homers was 26. In 130-plus games he had never hit more than 26; then he crushes 17 in just 57 games?

Alderson got exactly the right player, at exactly the right time, and it was pure dumb luck. 

In 41 games with the Astros, Gomez went on to hit .242 with just 4 homers, while striking out 31 times. THAT was the player Alderson wanted. The one he got became the man who carried the Mets' anemic offense to a division title. 

Part II: Justin Turner, Daniel Murphy and Some Atrocious Draft Picks

My mom, Pauline Frascella, has been watching Mets baseball since 1962, when all the misery began.

She's a better fan than I am -- when the team falls apart, stumbling and fumbling through rough times, she always sticks with them. When I'm cursing and screaming "I can't watch this s**t!" she's watching an out-of-the-race team closely, looking for bright spots for the future. 

In 2013, when Justin Turner hit .280 in 86 games for the Mets, she said, "This kid can hit. He has quality at bats. He's just a natural."

And I agreed with her (as I normally do). Though the Mets floundered to the tune of just 74 wins -- for the second-straight year -- we agreed that Turner and Daniel Murphy were the offensive bright spots. Murphy hit .286 with a career-high 13 dingers, after hitting .291 and .320 the preceding two seasons. 

While the MLB was beginning its league-wide transition to launch angle and homer-tailored swings, Turner and Murphy continued to grind out long, high-quality professional at bats. The Frascellas have always felt that those types of at bats are the key to hitting in the clutch, with runners in scoring position. 

Well, unfortunately for Mets fans across the globe, my mom has a much better eye for talent than Sandy Alderson. 

Alderson ultimately released Turner because he felt $750 thousand was too much of a raise for him. Seven hundred and fifty THOUSAND. Keep in mind that OF Jason Heyward -- who hit .259 with 11 homers last season -- is going to make $28 MILLION this season. And yet Turner, who hit .280 while flashing the ability to hit to all fields with gap-to-gap potential for doubles, wasn't worth another $750K to Alderson. 

He later admitted that he "missed" on Turner. Ya think?

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As for Murphy, well, do I really have to go through all of the painful details again? He put together one of the greatest postseason runs in the history of baseball. He single-handedly carried a struggling Mets offense to the World Series. He had already hit over .280 SIX times for the New York Mets. He's THIRD in the history of the franchise with 228 doubles. 

Daniel Murphy had always been a highly-skilled big-league hitter, but one historic playoff run caused people to label him a "fluke". Sandy Alderson bought into that theory, and allowed him to sign with our hated rivals, the Washington Nationals, for three years and $37.5 million. Keep in mind, Ian Desmond, who will never be one-tenth of the hitter Murphy is, is going to make $22 million this season alone. And the Nats stole Murph for 37 over three. Alderson didn't want to invest pennies into one of the best hitters in Mets history. 

It's really quite interesting, when you think about it -- Alderson and the Wilpons didn't reward Murphy for being a postseason hero and remarkably steady Met over the years, but now the Wilpons are rewarding Alderson after the Mets' performance has gotten WORSE. Makes a lot of sense, right?

In 2011, with the 13th overall pick in the draft, Alderson selected OF Brandon Nimmo, who has six career home runs. The late, great Jose Fernandez went 14th and Sonny Gray 18th. 

In 2012, with the 12th overall pick, Alderson selected infielder Gavin Cecchini, who is a .217 lifetime hitter with one home run. Superstar Corey Seager went 18th, Michael Wacha 19th and Marcus Stroman 22nd. 

Later in that very same draft, with the 35th pick, Alderson selected C Kevin Plawecki, who is a .222 lifetime hitter with seven homers. Stephen Piscotty went 36th, Mitch Haniger 38th, Joey Gallo 39th and Lance McCullers 41st. 

In 2013, in the 4th round, Alderson honored former Met Lee Mazzilli by drafting his son, L.J, who is a .268 lifetime hitter in the minors, including a .217 stint in AAA. He has never reached the major leagues. 

Nine picks later, at No. 124, the Los Angeles Dodgers picked some kid named Cody Bellinger. Don't worry...he only crushed 39 homers in his rookie season in the bigs. Just for fun, here's the lineup Alderson could have had:

1. Corey Seager - SS

2. Michael Conforto - OF - I'll give Alderson credit for an excellent pick here

3. Justin Turner - 3B

4. Daniel Murphy - 2B

5. Yoenis Cespedes - OF

6. Cody Bellinger - OF

7. Joey Gallo - 1B (41 homers this season)

8. Travis d'Arnaud - C - Alderson also gets credit for trading R.A. Dickey for Noah Syndergaard and this guy

But, that's not the Mets lineup. Instead, because he isn't very good at his job, Alderson took Cecchini over Seager, released Turner, let Murphy sign with our hated rivals, got Cespedes by accident, took Mazzilli over Bellinger and Plawecki over Gallo. 

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The current, powerhouse Dodgers only exist because of Sandy Alderson's blunders. Reminds me of the fact that the dominant New England Patriots only exist because Mo Lewis knocked Drew Bledsoe out of the game. Enter Tom Brady. 

In the end, Alderson's floundering Mets are a story of missed opportunities. One after another.

It's a sad story. A continuing story. And our Mets depression may never end.