Friday, August 28, 2015

Late-Night Boredom Review: "Tape" - A Little-Known Mindf**k of A Movie

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When we first see Vince (Ethan Hawke) in Richard Linklater's Tape, he's bouncing around his dodgy hotel room like a sugar-rushed kid straight outta Candy Land. Later on, we find that what he's rushing on isn't exactly candy. Nevertheless, what is he so amped up about? What is he waiting so impatiently for?

Shortly after his jumping, throwing and flailing around the room, there's a knock at his hotel room door. In walks Vince's best friend from high school, Jon (Robert Sean Leonard). (You may recall that Hawke and Leonard played roommates in the Robin Williams vehicle, Dead Poets Society.) Jon is in town for the premiere of the indie film he's been working on for the past couple years. The old friends quickly fall into conversation about Vince's recently failed relationship, Jon's potentially burgeoning directorial career and old times. 

But there's a palpable edge to the conversation. These guys are clearly old pals, but there's something between them. A divide of some sort. There's a competitive feel to the banter, though Jon quickly assumes the authoritative role because he "has it together." Vince is a mess -- disheveled, jittery and a small-time drug dealer. Jon is clean cut and seemingly on the path to success. 

And yet the power pendulum swings when Vince begins to delve into their collective past. He brings up Amy, his high school sweetheart, and Jon is instantly hesitant. What happened with Amy? Why is this almost immediately a sore subject?

Before long we find out that Amy broke up with Vince near the end of senior year -- likely because of his "potentially dangerous" nature (this is referred to on multiple occasions) --  and Jon swooped in and slept with Amy. 

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This is apparently still bothering Vince. A lot. To make matters even more interesting, Amy happens to be in the area. Perhaps she'll be stopping by. 

Vince proceeds to place Jon under intense questioning for an extended period of time. There's little subtlety to what he's doing -- Vince is saying Jon's experience with Amy wasn't sex. It was rape. But why is Vince suggesting this? What are his grounds? Where did he get this theory from?


**SPOILERS AHEAD **

As the conversation heats up, Jon begins to break. At first he says the sex was "a little rough." As Vince becomes more and more insistent, Jon concedes more and more. Maybe it was date rape, he grants Vince, who is still visibly unsatisfied. He almost seems like he needs it to be rape. 

Disturbingly enough, Vince wants to hear Jon saying that he raped the love of his life. And when Jon actually does, the title of the movie begins to make sense. The moment Jon finally exclaims, "Okay, it was rape!" we hear the clicking of a tape recorder. "What was that?" Jon asks. 

Vince is ecstatic. He has successfully recorded the confession. Shortly after, he's on the phone with Amy, confirming that she's on the way over. Jon is both dumbfounded and extremely frustrated. Why has his "best friend" done this to him? Is Amy really on the way over, or is Vince just messing with him to make a vicious point? He can't afford to wait to find out. He tackles Vince in an effort to grab the tape. A scuffle ensues. It's getting violent when of course...

...there's a knock at the door. 

Both "men" quickly hop off the floor and straighten themselves up. Jon looks like he's ready to crap his pants. Vince is bursting with manic energy. When the door peels open, Amy (Uma Thurman) walks in. 

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From there, things get tricky. I don't want to give away too much, but Amy's introduction to the story certainly clouds the facts. There are secrets revealed about Vince. There are mysterious elements to Amy's responses and unwillingness to say anything definitive. Previously uttered lines of dialogue begin to make more sense. Someone ends up completely in the dark. A life-changing phone call is made. Someone gets closure. Someone is forgiven. Someone has the power at the very end. 

If you make it to the end of Tape, you may think you know what happened. 

But...think again. You'll want to. Trust me. 

** JOHNNY FRO'S RATING: 9 out of 10 **

Saturday, August 15, 2015

Quarterback Power Rankings: Two Rookies In My Top 30 - Without Ever Taking A Snap?

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We can talk about running backs, wide receivers, offensive and defensive linemen, linebackers and defensive backs all we want, but at the end of the day, we all know that winning and losing in the NFL boils down to quarterback play. 

I mean look at last season -- the final four teams were the Patriots, Colts, Seahawks and Packers, led by Tom Brady, Andrew Luck, Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers respectively. That's four of the top six quarterbacks in the world. Anyway, let's get to it...

50. Matt Schaub (Ravens):  I honestly thought this guy retired. Once one of the better fantasy quarterbacks in the NFL when he was throwing to Andre Johnson in his prime, Schaub is now merely an emergency veteran in case Joe Flacco goes down. His arm strength -- which was always kind of suspect anyway -- isn't there anymore, and he'll never be a true starter again. 

49. Dan Orlovsky (Lions): The man best known for running out of the back of the endzone and having absolutely no idea, Orlovsky also once dropped an $800 pot to me in poker. I had quad twos and he had a pair. Needless to say, he didn't play the hand very well.

However, football wise, he's actually a very talented guy. He's the greatest quarterback in the history of the University of Connecticut, and he maintains a job as an NFL QB2 because of his solid natural ability. He has a big arm and little fear. He's also a very positive guy and good teammate. 

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48. Jimmy Garoppolo (Patriots): There was a bizarre article last season that said the Patriots were considering trading Tom Brady for Andre Johnson if they couldn't escape their early season struggles. The thought alone insinuates that they must really like Garoppolo. I'll have to see it before I believe it. 

47. Johnny Manziel (Browns): He's out of control both on and off the field, but the personnel isn't great for Josh McCown in Cleveland. He's definitely a better quarterback than Manziel, but we may end up seeing "Johnny Football" when the Browns predictably sputter. Expect some wild plays and an unacceptable amount of mistakes. 

46. Austin Davis (Rams): We got a good look at him last season during his stint as Jeff Fisher's starter, and we didn't see much. The Rams won a game here and there with their electric defense, but Davis didn't have much to do with it. His best game came in a surprisingly strong performance against the Cowboys. Not much of an arm here, though. I doubt we'll see him as a starter again. 

45. E.J. Manuel (Bills): Things looked so promising in Manuel's first few starts as a rookie, but it's been all downhill from there. He's very inaccurate and really struggles to stretch the field effectively. He is best suited as a roll out QB who dinks and dunks short, safe passes. There are rumblings that he's fallen behind Tyrod Taylor on the Bills' depth chart. Yikes. 

44. Matt Hasselbeck (Colts): Nooooo, this guy is still in the league? Once a fairly consistent Pro Bowl caliber QB, Hasselbeck now holds the clipboard for Mr. Andrew Luck. I'd still rather have this old vet than the quarterbacks listed from #45 to 50.

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43. Kirk Cousins (Redskins): Ahh, the famous "back-up quarterback is actually a superstar" hype. Generally speaking, when a guy is a back-up QB, it's because his professional coaching staff understands that he is not a starting caliber player. I tend to trust the experienced coaches over beat writers who say, "The guy dominates practice. He looks incredible and makes all the throws." Yeah, well, the lights came on and Cousins shit the bed. 

42. Chad Henne (Jaguars): I guess he's kind of similar to Cousins, in some ways. People always say, "Henne is big, strong, talented and can make all of the throws downfield." And yet, whenever he gets the opportunity to start his game numbers look something like this: 156 yards, 1 touchdown, 2 interceptions. 

That's called a back-up quarterback. 

41. Colt McCoy (Redskins): In quite possibly my favorite game of the 2014 NFL regular season, Colt McCoy -- initially Jay Gruden's third-string quarterback -- went home to Dallas and shocked the Cowboys with an entertaining road victory. This kid radiates positive energy. He's a tough guy who will always get the most out of his limited physical ability. A pro's pro. 

40. Derek Anderson (Panthers): A steady professional back-up QB. Has represented himself well in a number of different cities. Doesn't kill you when he's out there, and can actually win a handful of games for you when he's on. 

39. Matt Cassel (Bills): My good friend, Steven Summer (happy 30th birthday, Stevo!), was once on vacation in the islands and ran into Steelers offensive coordinator Todd Haley. At the time, Haley had just finished up his successful-but-unfairly-short stint as head coach of the Chiefs. When Steve asked Haley about his time in Kansas City, he said, "Hey, I made the playoffs with Matt Cassel as my starting quarterback -- I'd say I did pretty damn good."

Nuff said. 

38. Matt Moore (Dolphins): The season before Ryan Tannehill was drafted by the Dolphins, Moore was named the team's Most Valuable Player by the coaches and players. He's a good leader and gamer who has had a very respectable professional career. My kind of guy. 

37. Mike Glennon (Bucs): Has had a couple of chances in Tampa Bay and never gets over the hump. He's a decent quarterback who shows some positive flashes. Doesn't have the sustainability to be a reliable starter. 

36. Ryan Mallett (Texans): Locked in a position battle with the scrappy Brian Hoyer. Neither guy is anywhere near a front-line quarterback. To use some names we have already seen: Mallett is like a younger Chad Henne and Hoyer is a slightly better Colt McCoy or Matt Moore. Nothing to write home about here.

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35. Blake Bortles (Jaguars): If you ask me, the kid has a broken arm and makes too many mind-boggling decisions. He sometimes thinks he is Brett Favre or Aaron Rodgers forcing "bullets" into dangerously small windows. Except, his bullets are ducks. Luckily for Bortles, Julius Thomas and Allen Robinson should help his statistical production a bit. 

34. Brian Hoyer (Texans): Pretty much covered him in Mallett's summary. He's a gamer but isn't gifted. Gets the respect of many of his teammates because he is gritty, but he just simply isn't a pure quarterback. He's more of a football player than a quarterback. 

33. Robert Griffin III (Redskins): Hasn't shown he can be an NFL starting quarterback without his mobility. Doesn't help when your head coach picks you apart in the media. Griffin hasn't realized that he isn't the player he once was, and Gruden is a dick. These guys are annoying. 

32. Drew Stanton (Cardinals): An excellent back-up quarterback. Cardinals may have beaten the Panthers in the playoffs if they had Stanton available instead of the laughable Ryan Lindley. Stanton has surprisingly good poise in the pocket and can make very difficult throws look relatively easy. I'm a Drew Stanton guy. 

31. Shaun Hill (Vikings): A reliable journeyman who has been a positive contributor everywhere he goes. In terms of tools and playing style, I think a comparison to Chad Pennington is very fair here. When starters go down, Hill often takes over and outplays them. It doesn't always look pretty but he certainly gets the job done. An admirable player. 

30. Josh McCown (Browns): When he pulled a Kurt Warner or Tom Brady during his run as a Chicago Bear, I was firmly seated in his bandwagon. However, a couple years later, it appears that McCown's incredible success was a product of Marc Trestman's savvy playcalling and Alshon Jeffery, Brandon Marshall and Matt Forte's tremendous talent. McCown is basically a borderline starter at this point. 

29. Ryan Fitzpatrick (Jets): I've already heard this guy's name too often this week. We know what he is -- he doesn't kill you but doesn't win games for you. The Jets better hope their defense is dominant and Chris Ivory is a monster. I'm not really feelin' it. 

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28. Jameis Winston (Bucs): Sorry, I gotta see it before I believe it. The kid's character is questionable and so is his on-field decision making. People are also overrating WR2 Vincent Jackson; there's no question he's lost a step. I expect Winston to be relying heavily upon Mike Evans and Austin Seferian-Jenkins. Not a lot of experience in that trio. Winston will have one of the highest interception totals this season. 

27. Geno Smith (Jets): I still believe in his natural ability, and I really like the combo of Eric Decker and Brandon Marshall for him. He may never be a starter in the NFL again, though. I suppose time will tell. 

26. Jay Cutler (Bears): All hype and no substance. "Big arm, can make all the throws" -- yeah, to the other team. This guy is a bonafide team cancer and everyone knows it. He still puts up some solid stats, so he makes the top 30. 

25. Sam Bradford (Eagles): The latest report says the Eagles' coaching staff is "ecstatic" with Bradford -- umm, he hasn't even played a regular season game yet. Gettin' all fired up about nothing. Bradford has been injury-prone and quite underwhelming throughout his somewhat bizarre NFL career. He's a really nice kid with a good attitude, but that's part of his facade. He gets everyone to like him so they look past the fact that he isn't a great quarterback. He'll have career-best numbers in Chip Kelly's offense, but he'll shock their staff with surprisingly poor play. 

Surprising to them, at least. 

24. Teddy Bridgewater (Vikings): It's been an interesting few years for Teddy. Once regarded as the consensus No. 1 quarterback of his draft class, he ended up falling to the bottom of the first round due to some suspect work at the Combine. Who gives a shit? It's just drills. In games, Bridgewater has always been a tough kid who makes athletic plays. His teammates rally behind him. He may not be a pure passer but he's going to win games. He has a little magic in him. 

23. Derek Carr (Raiders): Has a much stronger and smoother arm than his older brother, David. There's definitely potential here. Hopefully he and Amari Cooper will turn this sorry franchise around. Dare I say...the Raiders are on the rise?

22. Mark Sanchez (Eagles): Can't wait until Chip Kelly realizes he's better off with Sanchez over Bradford. Sanchez is the Stephon Marbury of the NFL -- gets no credit when he plays well and gets all the blame when he plays poorly. There's simply no justice for Dirty Sanchez.

However, he was superb after Nick Foles went down last season. His strong overall performance turned a lot of heads, but not mine. I know this guy can play. He's a solid-but-unspectacular NFL quarterback. 

21. Andy Dalton (Bengals): Not a great quarterback, but I like his talent pool with A.J. Green, Jeremy Hill, Giovani Bernard, Tyler Eifert, Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu. "The Red Rifle" should be decent this season. I have a good vibe on the Bengals this year. 

20. Alex Smith (Chiefs): Doesn't turn the ball over, doesn't make big plays. Doesn't kill you. Gotta run the ball and play D with Smith. He's one of the best of the pure "ball control" quarterbacks. 

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19. Marcus Mariota (Titans): I'm buying in all the way. My gut tells me this kid should end up being a superstar, but I'm extremely concerned about his surrounding cast. They need to improve their talent -- fast. I think Mariota can do it all. I'm going heavy on the Titans over the Bucs in Week 1. 

18. Nick Foles (Rams): I'm a Nick Foles guy. Was really hoping the Jets were going to end up with him when he was being shopped around. Very solid move for Jeff Fisher and the Rams. I think people are giving Chip Kelly too much credit when it comes to Foles. I think he truly has the intangibles. He could possibly get up into the #14 quarterback range. 

17. Colin Kaepernick (49ers): Needs a bounce-back season. Hopefully Torrey Smith will help and Vernon Davis will actually show up. Reggie Bush should also help on dump-offs. 

16. Carson Palmer (Cardinals): I've never been much of a Carson Palmer guy, but it was clear how much the Cardinals missed him when he went down last season. Drew Stanton was excellent as his back-up, but once it got to Ryan Lindley it was an absolute shitshow. Palmer is still a solid player. He needs Michael Floyd to be more consistent. John Brown may end up being the key receiver for him. 

15. Cam Newton (Panthers): Cam is growing on me a little. Kelvin Benjamin is not as good as people think he is, and Steve Smith wasn't there last season. Cam doesn't really have much to work with. He's a tough guy with a reputation as a dick, but at least we know he's always going to compete physically. I do think he has improved as a passer. I thought he played surprisingly well in the postseason last year. The front office still hasn't helped him enough at the wide receiver position. 

14. Ryan Tannehill (Dolphins): Very good all-around, just like his team. Not awesome, but very good. I don't think he'll ever be a consistent top 10 quarterback, but he should always be in the 12 to 18 range. He's one of my "blank-minded" quarterbacks. He doesn't think much; he's more of an instinctual and reactionary quarterback. There are two more guys like that coming on the list. 

13. Matthew Stafford (Lions): We're waiting and waiting and waiting for this guy to become a star, but he never does. He's just not consistent enough. Has the ability but needs to refine the mental skills that have made Peyton Manning and Tom Brady great. 

12. Eli Manning (Giants): The second of the blank-minded quarterbacks. The less you think, the less fear you have. That can often be a good thing. I think Eli is in for a big year if Odell Beckham, Victor Cruz and Shane Vereen can stay healthy. Eli could be as high as No. 9 on this list. 

11. Joe Flacco (Ravens): The third-and-final blank-minded quarterback. "Joe Cool" has really become an outstanding playoff quarterback. I love his poise but sometimes wonder about his decision-making. Nevertheless, I'd love to have him under center for my team in a big spot. I think he generally continues to improve from one season to the next. 

10. Philip Rivers (Chargers): Possible decline this season. Could fall as far as #16 or 17. Antonio Gates is suspended for four games, Eddie Royal is gone and I'm worried about Philip's arm strength. He's a warrior, though. I'll give him that. 

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9. Drew Brees (Saints): Same as Rivers. Arm strength is clearly diminishing. Jimmy Graham and Kenny Stills are gone. This season could mark the end of an incredible run. 

8. Peyton Manning (Broncos): Likely the smartest and best-prepared quarterback in the history of the game, Peyton's physical skills are simply declining. He relies more on his preparation than ability at this point. He generally needs to get rid of the ball quickly and get it into the hands of Demaryius Thomas or Emmanuel Sanders. He will certainly miss Julius Thomas in the redzone.

7. Matt Ryan (Falcons): A great quarterback in his prime. Like Peyton, his preparation is outstanding and his knowledge of the game is world class. He reads opposing coverages extremely well and delivers his timing throws beautifully. Too bad the Falcons can never make a defensive stop. 

6. Russell Wilson (Seahawks): Everyone knows I'm a Russell Wilson guy, but his horrific playoff performance against the Packers did scare me. He also threw an interception that cost his team the Super Bowl. I've dropped Wilson to #6 because he should have audibled out of that atrocious playcall. Manning, Brady, Rodgers, Ben...they all would have known better. Wilson is TOO nice. He respects his coaches TOO much. At the end of the day this is his team, and he should have taken control of the ship. Should be a two-time Super Bowl champ, but isn't. 

5. Andrew Luck (Colts): I've been talking about the Colts' offseason a lot. I can't say enough about the pick-ups of Frank Gore and Andre Johnson. Luck was incredible last season with just T.Y. Hilton, Donte Moncrief and "Boom Boom" Herron, but now he has two more legitimately productive veterans. Luck will be either the No. 1 or 2 fantasy quarterback this year. 

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4. Tony Romo (Cowboys): 1st in quarterback rating (a whopping 113.2). 1st in completion percentage (an incredible 69.9). 34 touchdowns and only 9 interceptions. Could he possibly be more efficient? Romo is the fuckin' man!

3. Ben Roethlisberger (Steelers): This monster is aging like fine wine. What he did last season was absolutely astonishing. 4,952 yards passing (1st in the league), 408 completions (3rd) and 32 touchdowns with only 9 picks. He will continue to reap the benefits of Antonio Brown and Le'Veon Bell, two of the best football players on the planet. 

2. Tom Brady (Patriots): C'mon, it's Tom Brady! Do I really have to summarize what he brings to the table? Another Super Bowl win. He's a winner in the class of Michael Jordan, Kobe Bryant and Derek Jeter. One of the best players in the history of the game. 

1. Aaron Rodgers (Packers): The perfect quarterback. When he's on -- which is essentially all the time -- there is nothing opposing defenses can do to stop him. He may be the best all-around quarterback in the history of the sport. What, if any, are his weaknesses? I really can't think of anything. He and LeBron James are the best active athletes in the four major sports. Mike Trout and Alex Ovechkin would be next in line.

Bring on the arguments!!!

Monday, August 10, 2015

2015 NFL Preseason Predictions: Rodgers, Brady or Wilson...Which Elite QB Gets the Glory?

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It was another action-packed offseason in the NFL -- ugh, I hate these obligatory intros. Let's just go straight to my rankings...

AFC EAST

4. Buffalo Bills (7-9)

Yeah, they got Rex Ryan and LeSean McCoy and Percy Harvin and Charles Clay and...they still don't have a quarterback. Either way, with Matt Cassel or E.J. Manuel, they'll have one of the absolute worst starting quarterbacks in the NFL. 

There's no question that they'll boast one of the premier defenses in the game -- sure to account for most of their seven wins -- but their division is too tough with the improved Dolphins and Jets, along with the Super Bowl champion Pats. 

3. Miami Dolphins (9-7)

I like the effort that the Dolphins' front office put into this offseason, but I'm not quite sure it'll be enough to get them over the hump. They've been a middling team for a couple seasons now, and they're hoping that Ndamukong Suh, Kenny Stills and Greg Jennings will present the collective answer to their prayers. 

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I think the Dolphins will be a solid two-way team without being a legitimate Super Bowl contender. Close, but no cigar. 

2. New York Jets (10-6)

What a friggin' offseason. I couldn't have been happier until Sheldon Richardson's inexplicable antics forced me into a momentary-but-standard Jets depression. Nevertheless, the Jets and their faithful are hoping that rookie Leonard Williams can be all he's cracked up to be. Wilkerson and Harrison will be there to support him on the D-line as well.

In the secondary, talk about a complete 180 with the additions of Darrelle Revis, Buster Skrine and Antonio Cromartie. People still like to talk about Cromartie because he's a big name, but I actually think Skrine will be the more valuable player of the two.

Offensively, Geno Smith will be greatly assisted by the addition of veteran redzone WR Brandon Marshall. Ryan Fitzpatrick will be waiting in the wings if Geno falls flat on his face. This is a very solid all-around team with a promising new head coach in Todd Bowles.

1. New England Patriots (10-6)

Much of their record will be determined by what ends up happening with Tom Brady. Right now he's looking at a four-game suspension to begin the season, but I still agree with Tom's contention that the NFL has no REAL evidence against him. Obviously we all know he did it, but it's innocent until PROVEN guilty in our society. Something tells me he'll end up with two games, at most. That's just the way things tend to work out for the hated Patriots.

Belichick's offense will be strong again once Brady is behind center, but defensively they've clearly taken a hit. Their corners are terrible. This is not a Super Bowl champion frontrunner, and they're going to get a ton of trouble from the Jets and Dolphins. The Bills will also be feisty. I don't see a repeat in Belichick's future.

AFC NORTH

4. Cleveland Browns (5-11)

This feels like a team of misfits and castoffs. Their offense should be one of the least productive in the NFL, but their talented defense will steal a game here and there. DBs Joe Haden and Donte Whitner are among the best at their respective positions, and LBs Paul Kruger and Karlos Dansby are pro's pros. Head coach Mike Pettine will continue to get more than he should out of his suspect talent pool. 

3. Baltimore Ravens (9-7)

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You'd think GM Ozzie Newsome would learn his lesson -- the last time Joe Flacco only had one legitimate wide receiver to throw to, this team fell out of contention. When they had Anquan Boldin and Torrey Smith they were fine. When they had Torrey Smith and Steve Smith they were fine. When they had ONLY Torrey Smith, they struggled mightily. Now they ONLY have Steve Smith. I don't think Flacco is going to like this. I also think RB Justin Forsett should be expected to regress some. 

They have a better defense than the Steelers and Bengals, but I'm not sure that'll be enough.

2. Cincinnati Bengals (9-7)

Everyone who knows me well knows that I've been cleaning up by betting against Andy Dalton in the playoffs. He's a bottom-third quarterback (middle of the pack, at best), but he's surrounded by some strong offensive talent. RB1 Jeremy Hill looked like one of the best in the game throughout last season's second half, WR1 A.J. Green is a consistent star and RB2 Giovani Bernard can make some explosive plays. The X-factors for this team will be WRs Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu -- will they do enough for the Bengals to outplay the Ravens and hang with the Steelers?

1. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6)

With Ben Roethlisberger, Le'Veon Bell, Antonio Brown and Martavis Bryant, we all know the Steelers are going to boast one of the highest scoring offenses in the league. Is their defense, a combination of aging vets and unproven youngsters, competitive enough for a Super Bowl run? I'm not sure, they may just have to outscore everyone.

AFC SOUTH

4. Jacksonville Jaguars (5-11)

Gotta like the additions of TE Julius Thomas and RB T.J. Yeldon, but I'm not a Blake Bortles believer. Plain and simple. And this team never defends well enough. 

3. Tennessee Titans (6-10)

While I may not be a Blake Bortles guy, I AM, in fact, a believer in rookie QB Marcus Mariota. Love his quick release, confidence and mobility. It's a real shame that the Titans don't have any top-tier receivers. Mariota will undoubtedly show flashes of brilliance, but his production will be bottled up by a sub-par supporting cast. I hope they improve their talent pool in the future, so this kid can reach his full potential. 

2. Houston Texans (6-10)

Like the Brady situation in New England, much of Houston's success will hinge on RB Arian Foster's eventual return. Will he be out 3-to-6 weeks, or 6 months? The reports have varied. With Foster on the sideline and Andre Johnson in Indianapolis, this could be a dreadful offense. QBs Brian Hoyer and Ryan Mallett don't inspire much confidence. 

Defensively, this is an all-star team featuring Watt, Wilfork, Clowney, Cushing and Joseph. I just don't think this offense will be good enough. 

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1. Indianapolis Colts (12-4)

Love the Johnson and Frank Gore pick-ups. They will get just the right amount of reps, with T.Y. Hilton, Donte Moncrief and Dan Herron sharing the playmaking load. Andrew Luck is going to love his new guys, but this defense is questionable as usual. 

Even with the sometimes-suspect defense, I don't think there's any doubt that the Colts have the easiest path to a division title. 

AFC WEST

4. Oakland Raiders (6-10)

I mean, they look better on paper with guys like Michael Crabtree, Amari Cooper and Roy Helu -- it's a start. I don't think they will be terrible, and they may even win seven. Still not going to be in the playoff discussion due to a competitive division and better Wild Card options like the Jets, Dolphins, Ravens and Bengals. 

3. San Diego Chargers (7-9)

I'm outsourcing this one -- my buddy who is an expert on offensive and defensive lines says the Chargers' O-line is in absolute shambles. That, coupled with the fact that I'm not "feeling" San Diego this season, feels like 7-9 or 8-8 (at best) are very safe bets. 

2. Kansas City Chiefs (9-7)

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Man, the race for the two AFC Wild Card spots is really going to be a dogfight. The Chiefs will be right in there (seemingly as always) with their addition of WR1 Jeremy Maclin. Clearly he won't be as productive as he was in Chip Kelly's video game offense, but he will definitely help take some of the pressure off RB1 Jamaal Charles and TE Travis Kelce

And this defense is always serviceable; especially at home. 

1. Denver Broncos (11-5)

I'm down on Peyton Manning but high on C.J. Anderson; the latter was super impressive down the stretch of last season. WRs Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders are an outstanding tandem. There's a ton of talent on this defense. They still won't get over the hump in the end, though. 

NFC EAST

4. Washington Redskins (6-10)

When I'm reading things like, "Multiple high-ranking NFL execs think Robert Griffin III is DONE," that doesn't exactly inspire confidence. HC Jay Gruden is also kind of an asshole who sells out his players to make himself look smart. This is still a dysfunctional bunch; don't let their offseason of positivity and praise fool you. 

RB Alfred Morris also has nothing left in his legs. 

3. Philadelphia Eagles (7-9)

I don't like Chip Kelly or Sam Bradford, this team's receivers are suspect and their defense (as usual) will blitz and gamble more than anything else. I love DeMarco Murray, but this is an over-hyped squad. I think Mark Sanchez is better than Bradford. Looking forward to the latter falling on his face. 

2. New York Giants (9-7)

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It's hard not to like New York's offensive core of Eli Manning, Odell Beckham, Victor Cruz, Rashad Jennings, Shane Vereen and Larry Donnell (with RB Andre Williams and WR Rueben Randle also worth mention). If Cruz is 100% this could be a 10-win team, though I don't think he will be. 

Conversely, we may be looking at one of the worst defensive teams in the NFL here. In terms of personnel, the Giants appear to be built similarly to the Steelers. 

1. Dallas Cowboys (10-6)

I want the DeMarco decision to burn them SO badly, but Jerry Jones' boys still appear to be the best in their division. New RB1 Joseph Randle has shown some nice flashes in the past; nevertheless, he's still the team's biggest overall question mark. Clearly he won't be as effective as DeMarco, but Dallas does boast one of the premier offensive lines in the game. The holes will be there. 

Honestly, I still feel bad about last season -- that Dez Bryant "drop" against the Packers was absolutely excruciating to watch. As a career-long Tony Romo supporter, that was a tough pill to swallow. This year is going to be different for me because I vehemently disagree with their decision to let DeMarco walk. To make matters worse he ends up with the division-rival Eagles. 

So yeah, I'll be rooting for the Cowboys, but not.

NFC NORTH

4. Chicago Bears (6-10)

I'm just kind of sick of this team. They are like the Redskins, in a way -- lot of drama, mostly centered on a shitty quarterback. Jay Cutler is a cancer and everyone knows it, including the people who inked him to an absurdly lucrative extension. You can't win with Cutler and a suspect defense. Period. 

3. Minnesota Vikings (8-8)

Now this is an interesting team. I was leaning toward 7-9, but they showed plenty of life last season even without Adrian Peterson and the newly-acquired Mike Wallace. Teddy Bridgewater is a gamer, and this team appeared to take on a bit of his personality. I think 8-8 is safe, but 9-7 isn't out of the question for this intriguing group. 

2. Detroit Lions (9-7)

Ndamukong Suh and Reggie Bush are big losses. Haloti Ngata and Theo Riddick will step into those roles respectively, but that's a level below what they had. Gotta love their trio in the passing game of Matthew Stafford, Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate, but I'm still not sold on Joique Bell as a RB1. 

The Lions do have two of my favorite defensive players, LB DeAndre Levy and SS James Ihedigbo. That's a duo that plays with ferocity and intensity all the time. They truly create havoc. This team should be able to hold off the Vikings for 2nd, but it's not a lock. 

1. Green Bay Packers (12-4)

Green Bay is the class of the division and will certainly be in contention for the NFC title. Aaron Rodgers is the best player in the world, WRs Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb and Davante Adams are a superb trio, RB Eddie Lacy is slow but steady and B.J. Raji, Clay Matthews, Julius Peppers, Sam Shields and Ha Ha Clinton-Dix are all excellent defenders. 

I've never been a huge Mike McCarthy guy, but he does seem to outsmart opposing head coaches more often than not.

NFC SOUTH

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-10)

I'm not gonna lie, hearing that rookie QB Jameis Winston was throwing careless picks left and right the first few days of camp made a poor first impression on me. Given his history of erratic behavior and sometimes overzealous play, I would have preferred to hear some positive early reports about a changed man. Instead I'm picturing Winston throwing twice as many interceptions as touchdowns in his rookie campaign. 

WR Vincent Jackson is clearly on the decline, the running back position has been a question mark of late for this franchise and their defensive is average, even if they do have my friend from UConn -- name drop! -- solid and savvy linebacker Danny Lansanah. Good luck, Danny!

3. New Orleans Saints (6-10)

Oh, how the mighty have fallen. Drew Brees' arm just isn't what it used to be and this team is all-in on WR Brandin Cooks, and I ain't buyin' it. He's a tiny wideout with some speed and shiftiness, he's not a franchise WR1. Like Vincent Jackson in the previous synopsis, WR Marques Colston is also slowing dramatically. 

As always, New Orleans' defense will increase the blood pressure of its fans to unsafe levels. Possible candidate to be severely overrated. 

2. Carolina Panthers (7-9)

Although I won a significant sum of money betting against the Panthers in the postseason, I actually liked what I saw from Cam Newton against the salivating Seattle Seahawks D. I thought he performed about as well as he possibly could. It's not him I'm worried about -- it's his receiving corps and oft-injured RB1 Jonathan Stewart. WR1 Kelvin Benjamin has to improve his toughness, physicality and versatility to be a real factor in close games this season. 

On the bright side, "Riverboat" Ron Rivera's defense is easily the best in this division. They could plausibly squeak out another division crown, they'll just have to get a few breaks here and there. 

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1. Atlanta Falcons (8-8)

It's the weakest division in the NFL, so I'm going with the best 1-2 punch in Matt Ryan and Julio Jones. I'm also thinking new head coach Dan Quinn will maximize the little talent that he does have on defense. Former HC Mike Smith was a glorified babysitter and nothing more; it's likely that a real football coach like Quinn will get more out of a similar group of players. 

Nevertheless, this division battle will come down to the home stretch. It's Panthers or Falcons. Flip a coin. 

NFC WEST

4. San Francisco 49ers (7-9)

I don't think this team will be as bad as most are anticipating. LB Patrick Willis and DL Justin Smith were outstanding players, but at the end of the day it's easier to replace defensive players than offensive skill players. Offensively the Niners have Colin Kaepernick, Torrey Smith, Anquan Boldin, Vernon Davis, Reggie Bush and Carlos Hyde. That ain't bad at all. They will compete but this division is tough. 

3. Arizona Cardinals (8-8)

I really think this franchise is going to miss former DC Todd Bowles. I don't think this defense will be as explosive or effective. Also, as many of you know, I've never really been a believer in Carson Palmer. Can't win the big ones with him. Expect a slight regression here. 

2. St. Louis Rams (9-7)

Feels like it may be their time to get over the hump (a bit). A very fast, aggressive and talented defense. One of the premier head coaches in the game. Also, Nick Foles clearly won't be able to duplicate his bloated production from Chip Kelly's offense, but I do like him in general. He's tall, pretty patient and is surprisingly tough on third downs. He can make clutch throws and is actually tougher than he appears. He's not a star but I certainly like him better than Shaun Hill or Sam Bradford. 

The Rams also make key plays on special teams. It's not a fluke; it's well-designed scheming. 

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1. Seattle Seahawks (12-4)

Not much reason to expect regression here. And, well, they added Jimmy Graham. I think Russell Wilson will like his new toy. 

PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS

AFC Playoff teams: 1. Colts 2. Broncos 3. Steelers 4. Patriots 5. Jets 6. Bengals
NFC Playoff teams: 1. Packers 2. Seahawks 3. Cowboys 4. Falcons 5. Lions 6. Rams
AFC Wild Card Weekend:  Steelers over Bengals and Jets over Patriots
NFC Wild Card Weekend:  Cowboys over Rams and Lions over Falcons
AFC Semis: Colts over Jets and Steelers over Broncos
NFC Semis: Packers over Lions and Seahawks over Cowboys
AFC Championship: Colts over Steelers, 34-31
NFC Championship: Packers over Seahawks, 27-20

SUPER BOWL

GREEN BAY PACKERS OVER INDIANAPOLIS COLTS, 38-28. 

As always, I welcome your questions and/or comments. Thanks for reading. 

Sunday, July 26, 2015

Grantland's NFL Top 100: Let Me Clean Up This Mess

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As of this second, Grantland is featuring part two of Bill Barnwell's NFL Top 100 piece on its homepage (this was part one). It has been front and center since Friday; so either the guys don't work on the weekends or the editing staff is particularly fond of the article. I hope the latter isn't the case because the rankings are completely and utterly illogical. 

I totally understand the fact that Barnwell feels skill players are unfairly overrated -- and I certainly think that offensive and defensive linemen and other un-flashy players deserve their due -- but you can't be ranking tight ends ahead of running backs simply because you believe tight ends don't get enough attention. For example:

1. Barnwell has TE Delanie Walker (#97) ranked ahead of RB DeMarco Murray (#100). 

I almost shut down my computer when I read this. I very nearly gave up on Barnwell's article altogether. This is how he opens his paragraph about Walker:

"Regarded as one of the league’s best blocking tight ends during his time as Vernon Davis’s backup in San Francisco..."

And to that I say, "Yipde do." The guy was one of the best blockers when he was on the 49ers? He's not even on the 49ers anymore! What is that statement implying, that Walker isn't one of the best blocking tight ends anymore? That he was only one of the best blockers then? How is that a selling point?

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He's ranking a guy who used to be a good blocking tight end over the powerful and dynamic bellcow who led the NFL in rushing attempts, yards (total and per game), touchdowns and total yards from scrimmage. 

HOW ILLOGICAL IS THAT? I know it's rare for a running back, but I actually thought Murray deserved to be MVP of the league last season. I felt multiple quarterbacks were in the discussion -- namely Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Tony Romo, Andrew Luck and Ben Roethlisberger -- but no other running back was in Murray's class. He was absolutely the class of his position. 

And trust me, I completely understand that the Cowboys boasted the most improved offensive line in the game last year. I watched almost all of their games. I saw some of the ridiculously large holes that opened up. I take nothing away from them -- but I also saw Murray punishing linebackers and safeties in the second level. I also saw the stars of the vaunted Seattle Seahawks' defense, already considered one of the best in the history of football, shaking in their boots as Murray ran them over for 115 yards and a touchdown in a 30-23 Cowboys victory AT SEATTLE. The toughest place to play in the league. 

I really could go on all day about this. It's just such a completely ridiculous ranking that I feel no need to continue justifying my opinion. Barnwell's simply overthinking things in this case. 

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2. Barnwell has Jason Witten (#79) ahead of Elvis Dumervil (#83) and Mario Williams (#85).

It just dawned on me that this guy was probably a tight end in high school or something. I mean, the favoring of tight ends is blatant. Witten played all 16 games last season and had just 703 yards receiving! I know he's a reliable veteran, but he's also slow as shit. Anyone who actually watches the games can see the obvious decline in his physical ability. He is not a dynamic player. He's another good blocker. Also, since he's still fresh in mind, how the hell is Witten better than DeMarco Murray? Murray is younger, they were on the same team last season and Murray was the MVP of the team. Witten is old and slow. Murray is a truck disguised as a human being. How is this even a discussion?

As for Dumervil and Williams, we're clearly talking about two of the most explosive pass rushers in the world. Dumervil was third in sacks and Super Mario was fourth. Most football people agree that the key to a world-class defense is consistent pressure on the opposing quarterback. Both Dumervil and Williams play for top defensive units in the Ravens and Bills, respectively. These guys are INCREDIBLY valuable. They are relentless monsters in the trenches. At this stage in his career, Witten is a solid role player and nothing more. 

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3. Barnwell has CB Chris Harris ahead of Jimmy Graham, Clay Matthews, Le'Veon Bell and Jamaal Charles. 

DO I EVEN HAVE TO F'N SAY ANYTHING? IS THIS EARTH? I CAN'T TAKE IT ANYMORE. 

Sunday, July 5, 2015

Winners and Losers of the NBA Offseason: Spurs Grab Top Prize In Aldridge

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I think most would agree that it's been a very bizarre NBA offseason. Many players had to make tough decisions because of the upcoming changes to the salary cap, and organizations had similarly difficult decisions to make. With that being said, let's take a look at my winners and losers:

LOSER: Dallas Mavericks
Added: DeAndre Jordan and Wesley Matthews
Lost: Monta Ellis and Rajon Rondo

I think this "Loser" label will come as a surprise to some. Here's my problem with the Mavs' offseason: They added two of the most highly sought after players -- DeAndre and Wes Matthews -- but they didn't dramatically improve their position in the brutally competitive Western Conference. 

Many of you already know my stance on DeAndre; he's one of the best rebounders and off-the-ball shotblockers in the NBA, but he has no game. I don't place immense value on players with no game. He has no post ability, cannot make a short or mid-range jumper and cannot make free throws. He has no touch. His buckets need to be spoon fed to him. Taking that into consideration, how is he going to fare without Chris Paul? He's going from CP3 to JJ Barea and possibly Jeremy Lin. Talk about two completely different stratospheres. Long and short of it is, DeAndre's not the guy to get this team over the top. 

On the other hand, I think letting Monta Ellis go was a critical mistake. He was far and away their best offensive player this past season, and playing for superb head coach Rick Carlisle, Monta really improved his passing and unselfishness in recent years. To me, he was the engine of the Mavs' offense. Dirk is still solid, but aging to the point where he is not a go-to, franchise-type offensive player. This means Chandler Parsons is really going to have to be a primary playmaker for this team. That ain't gonna cut it in the West. 

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As for Matthews, I am definitely a fan. I really wanted the Knicks to get him, but he wouldn't even grant them a meeting (and who could blame him?). The problem is that Wes is primarily a catch-and-shoot offensive player who is best suited to play alongside a playmaking, drive-and-kick point guard. The Mavs have failed to properly address that position. I don't think Wes can reach his maximum value with the Mavs constructed as they are. 

This kind of feels like a mismatched group of random parts. After this offseason, I do not view the Mavs as a legitimate threat in the West. 

WINNER: San Antonio Spurs
Added: LaMarcus Aldridge
Lost: Tiago Splitter and Marco Belinelli

I mean, this is really a no-brainer. Any time you subtract a detrimental player like Splitter while adding a superstar like Aldridge, your organization is a big-time winner. Coach Pop and the Spurs were also able to lock up Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green for the future, so they basically just killed it all the way around. In my opinion, even though the Warriors won the championship, I still feel like the Spurs were the most cohesive and well-oiled team in the playoffs. I honestly felt like they fell victim to horribly bad luck, catching the Clippers in the best series they have ever played, not to mention a one-legged game winner by CP3 in Game 7. Ouch. 

Anyway, this offseason makes the Spurs the favorites to win it all. In addition, Pop, Duncan, Parker and Ginobili can use the next couple of seasons to groom Aldridge for the future. My only concern is that "LA" likes to get the lion's share of shot attempts, so he'll have to work on his consistent willingness to pass when necessary. The Spurs certainly have the personnel to help him with that. 

LOSER: Portland Trail Blazers
Added: Mason Plumlee, Gerald Henderson, Al-Farouq Aminu and Ed Davis
Lost: LaMarcus Aldridge, Wesley Matthews and Nicolas Batum

Yikes. Not much really needs to be said here. They lost three of their four best players and added a pile of mediocre guys. Plumlee sucks, Henderson and Davis are okay and I actually like Aminu, but this is a clear all-around downgrade. This team is now one of the few Western squads that cannot contend for a playoff spot. The others are likely the Nuggets, Lakers and probably the T'Wolves, unless they emerge quicker than expected. 

WINNER: Sacramento Kings
Added: Rajon Rondo, Marco Belinelli, Kosta Koufos and Willie Cauley-Stein
Lost: Derrick Williams and Nik Stauskas

The saga continues. Can you imagine? A team with so much offseason turmoil, actually somehow improved? I think that's the case here. George Karl and DeMarcus Cousins may hate one another, but that doesn't change the fact that Rondo, Belinelli, Koufos and Cauley-Stein make this a much better team than last year. 

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I hate Rondo and I'm sure they'll be plenty of drama involving him, Karl and Cousins, but this is the right personnel for his skill set at this stage of his rapidly declining career. Cousins and Rudy Gay can create a lot on their own and don't require a point guard who can do an awful lot, except maybe get them the ball when the opposing defense has decided to overplay and deny them. That's one of the few things Rondo can actually do. He also somehow improves the team's depth, giving them two veteran (and not completely useless) players at the point guard position, the other of course being Darren Collison

Collison is definitely a better all-around player than Rondo at this stage in their respective careers, but I'm sure Rondo will get the starting job. This isn't necessarily a bad thing for the Kings because Collison is far more capable of carrying the second unit. 

I don't think the Kings will make the playoffs because they will be too dysfunctional on and off the court, but they will be better than last season. Thus, they are an offseason winner. 

WINNERS WITH ONE MOVE: Bucks and Pacers
Added: Greg Monroe and Monta Ellis, respectively

The Bucks may be the second-best team in the East heading into the the 2015-16 NBA season. People have already been fighting me on that contention with the conservative picks like the Bulls, Wizards, Hawks and Heat, but I really do believe Milwaukee will contend for the two-seed. They already gave the Bulls a tough series this past postseason, and now they'll have Monroe and Jabari Parker. This is a long, fast, hungry and well-coached squad. Monroe adds the offense and technical skill that they really needed. This was a huge pick up for an organization on the rise. 

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I've already spoken a bit about Ellis, so let's just say that the Pacers have really given themselves a chance by adding him. Of course everything in Indiana will boil down to Paul George's ability to stay healthy and (perhaps) return to form. Only time will tell in that case. 

TEAMS THAT WON BY BRINGING BACK (BASICALLY) THE SAME TEAM:

Cavs, Bulls, Warriors, Rockets, Grizzlies, Heat, Nets, Pelicans, Thunder and Jazz. 

I really love what GM David Griffin and the Cavs did this offseason. Instead of being completely results-oriented and saying, "We lost in the Finals, we really have to change things" he instead said, "We probably had the best team in the NBA as we were, and the Kyrie and K-Love injuries are what ultimately derailed us."

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And he would be correct in thinking that. Therefore, they brought back essentially the same team and should cruise to an easy repeat Eastern Conference championship. That's simple and smart organizational thinking. No one else in the East really has a chance.

TEAMS THAT LOST IN ONE EXCHANGE:

Atlanta Hawks: DeMarre Carroll downgrade to Tim Hardaway Jr

Detroit Pistons: Greg Monroe downgrade to Ersan Ilyasova

Los Angeles Clippers: DeAndre Jordan downgrade to no one. What are they doing? They are going to have to go all out for JaVale McGee now? Give me a friggin' break. They better hope Paul Pierce is an all-around savior. Sent from the heavens. And speaking of Paul Pierce...

Washington Wizards: Paul Pierce downgrade to Jared Dudley. They will need Dudley and Gary Neal to somehow collectively pick up the slack. Neal is the better player of the two. 

Ughhhhh, I had a whole 'nother section here that didn't save because I lost my Internet connection. I hit Control-C (copy) and tried to Control-V paste but nothing returned. I'm not writing it all again. Now I'm pissed. Fuck it, it was something like this:

-I love Brad Stevens and the evolution of the Celtics' culture, but they really didn't do much this offseason. I thought they really would have benefited from the addition of Greg Monroe. Also, they won't have the element of surprise this season in the Eastern Conference.

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-Michael Jordan's Hornets had a nice little offseason, adding Nicolas Batum and rookie Frank Kaminsky. I like the idea that they are going to throw Kaminsky right into the fire with big minutes and a lot of touches because they aren't a championship-caliber team. They are better off giving him the opportunity to learn on the fly during real professional game action. I can only hope Phil Jackson and Knicks will make similar decisions regarding rookies Kristaps Porzingis and Jerian Grant. They probably won't because they always do the wrong thing.

-Overall summary: The Hawks got worse, the Nets and Celtics stayed put, the Hornets got better, the Cavs and Bulls stayed put, the Mavs failed to improve, the Nuggets stayed put, the Pistons got worse, the Warriors and Rockets stayed put, the Pacers got better, the Clippers got worse, the Lakers are different but still shitty, the Grizzlies and Heat stayed put, the T'Wolves and Bucks got better, the Pelicans stayed put, the Knicks got better but still suck, the Thunder and Magic stayed put, the 76ers are a circus, the Suns failed to improve, the Blazers got worse, the Spurs, Kings and Raptors got better, the Jazz stayed put and the Wizards got worse.

-Number of Eastern teams that improved: 5 (Hornets, Pacers, Bucks, Knicks and Raptors)
-Number of Eastern teams that weakened: 3 (Hawks, Pistons, Wizards)
-Number of Western teams that improved: 3 (T'Wolves, Spurs and Kings)
-Number of Western teams that weakened: 2 (Clippers and Blazers)

8 teams improved, 5 teams got worse and the rest are status quo. That is your 2015 NBA offseason in a nutshell. 

Friday, June 26, 2015

2015 NBA Draft: Maybe Phil Isn't Senial? Jackson Scores With Porzingis Selection

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If there's one thing I've learned from the all-powerful entity known as "Vegas," it's when the Public feels strongly about something, the best move is to bet the opposite. So when the predominantly New York crowd erupted with boos upon hearing the name Kristaps Porzingis Thursday night, I couldn't help but smile to myself. I think many ignorant Knicks fans will be in for a nice surprise. 

While I can certainly accept the consensus that Karl-Anthony Towns and Jahlil Okafor are two of the top three players in this draft class, I actually disagree with many who have PG D'Angelo Russell in that trio. I actually believe Porzingis, the 7-foot-1 forward/center from Latvia, is the third-best player in the class. Before I get to what I have against Russell, let's talk about Porzingis' many strengths...

The first thing that jumps out at me about Porzingis' game tape is that he catches-and-shoots like a two-guard. We've seen foreign-born bigs shoot from the perimeter before -- Andrea Bargnani, Yi Jianlian, Nikoloz Tskitishvili and more of the like -- but I've never seen THIS before. This is a 7-foot-1 kid coming off screens and releasing his shot as quickly as some solid shooting guards who are already in the NBA. Porzingis is not solely a stand-still shooter; he has rather amazing shot versatility. Offensively, I honestly think he could contribute right away. The question is will Phil Jackson and Derek Fisher throw him immediately into the fire? I think they should. Only time will tell. 

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Porzingis also has EXCELLENT hands. Normally young, 7-plus guys need a ton of work on their catching and overall ball skills. They usually have the length and athleticism, but lack the necessary touch and smoothness to excel right out of the gate. That certainly isn't the case here. Porzingis moves very well without the ball and catches with ease when cutting. His long arms and sure hands make him difficult to contest when he catches off a curl and rolls to the rim to flush it down. I've been referring to him as a "giant guard" and for now, offensively, that's what he is at the NBA level. Of course he will have to bulk up over time in order to hold his own defensively against power 4s and 5s, but I think he can flip-flop between 3s and 4s for the time being. A good coaching staff would be able to find the right opportunities for him to play immediately out of the gate. Not sure if the Knicks have that kind of staff, but I hope they'll give him a chance to play alongside a group that will likely include Carmelo Anthony, Greg Monroe and David West

So what do I have against D'Angelo Russell? Well nothing personal, but, I think everything he does on the court is too slow to be elite at a world-class level. I mean, this is a kid who was selected No. 2 overall, he's supposed to be a franchise-type player, and I just don't see how he could be. He's not fast in terms of actual foot speed, and his moves are slow-ish and very deliberate. I don't see him breaking down tough, professional perimeter defense too easily. Guys like Pat Beverley, John Wall and Mike Conley will eat him alive. 

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Shooting wise, Russell shows some ability to play off the ball, but his release is low and unimpressive. He seems to be able to make shots, but I definitely wouldn't refer to him as a "shooter." What I see is a weak point guard class, and teams desperately searching for something in a pile of nothing. I CANNOT believe the Lakers passed on Okafor for Russell, especially considering the fact that Jordan Clarkson -- who is young, explosive and also a combo guard -- is already one of the cornerstones of their roster. They must really believe they have a good chance to move Clarkson and Julius Randle (and others) in a package for DeMarcus Cousins. Either that or they are confident they will land LaMarcus Aldridge, Marc Gasol, Brook Lopez, DeAndre Jordan, Kevin Love and/or the aforementioned Monroe. 

I also really like PG Jerian Grant from Notre Dame, whom Phil nabbed later in the first round. It was a strong showing for the Knicks, as well as my Nets who I didn't have a chance to get to. Maybe next time. 

Wednesday, June 10, 2015

NBA Top 200 List: Steph Curry With the Shot, Boy?

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I've been thinking about putting together this massive post since the outset of the NBA postseason, and I'm finally getting around to it now. I watch and talk about basketball so often that it's really a necessity. Of course when we undertake a task like this, we run into the following issues:

1. What are the rankings based upon? Just this season? The past handful of years? Entire careers?
2. What carries more weight, cold statistics or the eye test?
3. How do we compare guards to forwards, forwards to centers, etc?

Well, at the end of the day, these are the questions I'm asking myself when evaluating an NBA player:

How unique is the player? Are there a bunch of guys just like him?
Can he create his own shot?
Does he have the killer instinct? Yes, no or maybe?
Is his game defined? Relative to that, does he play consistently?
Does the consistency of his game contribute directly to his team’s success?
Is he a two-way player?
Have they been able to stay healthy? 
Are they consistently aggressive or do they play passively at times?
Do they WANT it?
Are they a boom-or-bust player? Too much of a wild card?

Without further ado, in the words of the diabolical and twister Joker, "Here...we...go."

200. Meyers Leonard

What I like: Leonard is a big, strong kid who hustles and has made a concerted effort to improve his offensive game. He added a perfectly adequate three-point shot to his repertoire this season, to go along with his activity on the offensive glass and reasonable ability to finish around the rim. He's also active and physical defensively, if not entirely skilled.

What I don't like: Low ceiling. He deserved more playing time from head coach Terry Stotts this season, but even at 22-30 minutes per night his ceiling would be around 12-13 points and 7-8 rebounds per game.

199. Brandan Wright

What I like: Wright was one of the most consistent and useful back-up centers in the NBA when he played behind Tyson Chandler (and last season, Samuel Dalembert) in Dallas. He is a limited off-the-ball offensive player a la DeAndre Jordan, Mason Plumlee or more of the like, but he finishes the plays he's paid to finish. He's a coordinated pick-and-roll lob player with good springs and long arms. Defensively he's a good shot blocker with limited bulk to guard post-ups. 

What I don't like: Jeff Hornacek didn't seem to find him very useful in Phoenix. Devin Harris was Wright's pick-and-roll lob partner in Dallas, but no one was really looking for him that way in Phoenix. It just goes to show you, if a guy doesn't have one-on-one offensive game, he can be a forgotten man on teams without skillful and/or willing passers.

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198. Otto Porter

What I like: Here's a guy who looked absolutely lost for most of his first year and a half as a pro, then all of a sudden he seemed to figure things out. Some credit goes to the savvy tutelage of the great Paul Pierce. The rest gets attributed to Porter's length, athleticism, energy, willingness to attack/cut/move without the ball and the pure basketball ability that earned him a high lottery selection.

What I don't like: Otto needs to work on his triples if he wants to be an all-around offensive threat at the wing position. His ballhandling is suspect as well. 

197. Alex Len

What I like: Raw size and surprising ability. Len is not a clumsy Hasheem Thabeet type, despite his legitimate height and potentially-gawky length. He can catch and finish in deep, and his touch is better than I expected it to be. Defensively he's a shot blocker who needs to work on his lateral movement and team rotations. Len ran into a lot of the same problems as Brandan Wright at #199 -- the Suns' rotating guards throughout the season (Dragic, Bledsoe, Thomas and Knight) aren't generally looking to spoon feed their bigs. I suppose that's kind of the nature of the league in general, now. 

What I don't like: Lack of defensive quickness and no jump shooting game at this point. We'll see if he works on that.

196. Kosta Koufos

What I like: The guy's a pro. He's not particularly spectacular in any way, but he plays hard, gets in solid position on both ends of the floor and finishes nicely at close range. He was a totally serviceable starting center during his days as a Denver Nugget. Nowadays, he's exactly the kind of player you want as your back-up big. 

What I don't like: His once quick feet aren't as quick as they used to be. Showing some decline with age, but is still a useful giant.

195. Beno Udrih

What I like: "Beno Draino" knows his game. Protect the ball, come off high screens and knock down mid-range lefty jumpers. He's reliable, experienced and isn't going to kill you when your ace point guard is off the floor. I always find value in consistency and a player with a defined game, even if he's a pure role player.

What I don't like: Opposing point guards salivate when they see Beno in front of them. He isn't big, strong or particularly fleet of foot at this stage in his solid NBA career.

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194. CJ McCollum

What I like: Here's a guy who very quickly redefined his offensive game. Throughout his rookie season and about half of his sophomore campaign, it seemed like McCollum was trying to be a pure shooting guard because that's what the organization told him they needed. What's the problem with that? He's not a pure three-point shooter and he's not really a comfortable catch-and-shoot player. McCollum really came into his own when he began utilizing his off-the-bounce quickness and driving relentlessly -- both right and left -- to the rim. An argument could be made that he was the Blazers' best player in their unsuccessful postseason series against the Grizzlies. 

What I don't like: I don't know if C.J.'s short-term success was a fluke. It's too small of a sample size to really make a determination. I'll have to see more consistency over time to move him up.

193. Austin Rivers

What I like: Like Otto Porter and C.J. McCollum, Rivers decided to suddenly play his best basketball in the playoffs. That definitely isn't a bad thing. When Rivers realized he could use his size and quickness to attack the paint while more established players like Blake Griffin, JJ Redick and Jamal Crawford drew the majority of the defensive attention, he became an extremely valuable reserve for his father's team. We'll see if he can carry that new found confidence over to next season. 

What I don't like: Rivers has actually been a negative contributor for most of his short NBA career. He has spent a lot of time hurting his teams with indecisiveness and wildly inconsistent perimeter shooting. We'll see which Rivers shows up in 2015-16.

192. Chris Andersen

What I like: He may look like an unreliable loose cannon, but on the court, that couldn't be further from the truth. In a way, "Birdman's" look is a calculated bit of misdirection. When given the playing time, knowledgeable NBA enthusiasts have always considered him one of the premier shotblockers in the game; however, he can also be useful on the other end of the court with his lob-catching ability, offensive rebounding and "50/50 plays," as Coach Spo would say. He's a true team guy. 

What I don't like: Another "limited" or "low ceiling" player, as I have dubbed others. Creates little to no offense on his own and makes little impact on the game when his hustle level is below 100%.

191. JJ Hickson

What I like: When healthy and surrounded by the right cast of characters, Hickson can be a productive and sometimes-explosive flex big. He finishes hard -- often with two hands -- at the cup, makes athletic plays and dominates the glass at times. The key to that sentence, of course, is "at times."

What I don't like: Seems to get injured often and also appears to wear out his welcome with his coaches and/or teammates. He gets major run for stretches, but eventually becomes more of a 7th or 8th man for his team(s). Would only be a starter on three or four teams, at most.

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190. Jason Terry

What I like: "Jet" is a winner...always has been. I thought he was finished when he was on my Nets last season, but then he bounced back as a solid contributor for a very formidable Rockets team this year. At this stage in his superb NBA career (now third all time in three-pointers made), Terry's offensive game is pretty simple: Shoot threes when open and use the pump fake and threat of the three as a gateway to the paint and his patented pull-up jumper.

What I don't like: He was never an elite defender, and now with diminished foot speed he's certainly below average. That's surely an issue when he has to guard guys like Steph Curry, Chris Paul, Mike Conley and Tony Parker out west.

EDITOR'S NOTE: I just realized there's no way I'll ever finish this thing, with descriptions. Here's the rest in list form, 1 to 189:

LeBron James 1

Russell Westbrook 2

Stephen Curry 3

James Harden 4

Anthony Davis 5

Chris Paul 6

Kevin Durant 7

Blake Griffin 8 

Kyrie Irving 9 

DeMarcus Cousins 10 

John Wall 11

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Jimmy Butler 12

LaMarcus Aldridge 13

Dwight Howard 14

Brook Lopez 15

Marc Gasol 16

Carmelo Anthony 17

Tim Duncan 18

Mike Conley 19

Monta Ellis 20

Chris Bosh 21

Pau Gasol 22

Kevin Love 23

Gordon Hayward 24

Damian Lillard 25

Jeff Teague 26

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Klay Thompson 27

Kawhi Leonard 28

Rudy Gay 29

Al Horford 30

Zach Randolph 31

Dwyane Wade 32

Nikola Vucevic 33

Derrick Rose 34

Joe Johnson 35

Dirk Nowitzki 36

Tony Parker 37

Paul Millsap 38

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DeMar DeRozan 39

Bradley Beal 40

Wesley Matthews 41

Tyreke Evans 42

Al Jefferson 43

Ty Lawson 44

Goran Dragic 45

Brandon Jennings 46

Greg Monroe 47

Khris Middleton 48

Eric Bledsoe 49

Isaiah Thomas 50

Draymond Green 51

Kyle Korver 52

Kemba Walker 53

DeAndre Jordan 54

Reggie Jackson 55

Brandon Knight 56

Paul George 57

Jamal Crawford 58

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Kobe Bryant 59

DeMarre Carroll 60

Deron Williams 61

Andre Drummond 62

Hassan Whiteside 63

Kevin Martin 64

Enes Kanter 65

Andrew Wiggins 66

Kyle Lowry 67

Derrick Favors 68

Darren Collison 69

Serge Ibaka 70

Victor Oladipo 71

Michael Carter-Williams 72

Eric Gordon 73

Markieff Morris 74

Ricky Rubio 75

Kenneth Faried 76

Chandler Parsons 77

Rudy Gobert 78

Paul Pierce 79

George Hill 80

Tobias Harris 81

Danny Green 82

C.J. Miles 83

Jordan Clarkson 84

Tristan Thompson 85

Timofey Mozgov 86

Harrison Barnes 87

Joakim Noah 88

J.J. Redick 89

Boris Diaw 90

Lou Williams 91

Marcin Gortat 92

Josh Smith 93

Nicolas Batum 94

Arron Afflalo 95

Mo Williams 96

Luol Deng 97

Nene Hilario 98

Ryan Anderson 99

Mike Dunleavy 100

Jarrett Jack 101

Tony Allen 102

Nerlens Noel 103

Taj Gibson 104

Terrence Jones 105

Andrea Bargnani 106

Thaddeus Young 107

Courtney Lee 108

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Dennis Schroder 109

Jeff Green 110

David West 111

Tyson Chandler 112

Andre Iguodala 113

J.R. Smith 114

Jordan Hill 115

Andrew Bogut 116

Jared Sullinger 117

Jrue Holiday 118

Evan Turner 119

Amir Johnson 120

Patty Mills 121

Carlos Boozer 122

Jodie Meeks 123

Wilson Chandler 124

Jusuf Nurkic 125

Trevor Ariza 126

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Giannis Antetekounmpo 127

Jonas Valanciunas 128

O.J. Mayo 129

Rodney Stuckey 130

Brandon Bass 131

Robin Lopez 132

Corey Brewer 133

Michael Kidd-Gilchrist 134

D.J. Augustin 135

Gary Neal 136

P.J. Tucker 137

Avery Bradley 138

Elfrid Payton 139

Robert Covington 140

Matt Barnes 141

Ersan Ilyasova 142

Patrick Beverley 143

Manu Ginobili 144

Marcus Morris 145

Gerald Henderson 146

Greivis Vasquez 147

Gorgui Dieng 148

Danilo Gallinari 149

Dion Waiters 150

Gerald Green 151

Kelly Olynyk 152

Luis Scola 153

Bojan Bogdanovic 154

Aaron Brooks 155

Alan Anderson 156

Mike Scott 157

Nikola Mirotic 158

 Omer Asik 159

Marco Belinelli 160

Jae Crowder 161

Zaza Pachulia 162

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Zach LaVine 163

Marresse Speights 164

Donatas Motiejunas 165

Leandro Barbosa 166

Anthony Morrow 167

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 168

C.J. Watson 169

Wayne Ellington 170

Amare Stoudemire 171

Lance Stephenson 172

Iman Shumpert 173

Tyler Zeller 174

Pero Antic 175

Marcus Smart 176

John Henson 177

Quincy Pondexter 178

Shaun Livingston 179

Jeremy Lin 180

J.J. Barea 181

Rajon Rondo 182

Jerryd Bayless 183

Tony Wroten 184

Trey Burke 185

Nick Young 186

Kent Bazemore 187

Randy Foye 188

Will Barton 189