It was another action-packed offseason in the NFL -- ugh, I hate these obligatory intros. Let's just go straight to my rankings...
AFC EAST
Yeah, they got Rex Ryan and LeSean McCoy and Percy Harvin and Charles Clay and...they still don't have a quarterback. Either way, with Matt Cassel or E.J. Manuel, they'll have one of the absolute worst starting quarterbacks in the NFL.
There's no question that they'll boast one of the premier defenses in the game -- sure to account for most of their seven wins -- but their division is too tough with the improved Dolphins and Jets, along with the Super Bowl champion Pats.
3. Miami Dolphins (9-7)
I like the effort that the Dolphins' front office put into this offseason, but I'm not quite sure it'll be enough to get them over the hump. They've been a middling team for a couple seasons now, and they're hoping that Ndamukong Suh, Kenny Stills and Greg Jennings will present the collective answer to their prayers.
I think the Dolphins will be a solid two-way team without being a legitimate Super Bowl contender. Close, but no cigar.
2. New York Jets (10-6)
What a friggin' offseason. I couldn't have been happier until Sheldon Richardson's inexplicable antics forced me into a momentary-but-standard Jets depression. Nevertheless, the Jets and their faithful are hoping that rookie Leonard Williams can be all he's cracked up to be. Wilkerson and Harrison will be there to support him on the D-line as well.
In the secondary, talk about a complete 180 with the additions of Darrelle Revis, Buster Skrine and Antonio Cromartie. People still like to talk about Cromartie because he's a big name, but I actually think Skrine will be the more valuable player of the two.
Offensively, Geno Smith will be greatly assisted by the addition of veteran redzone WR Brandon Marshall. Ryan Fitzpatrick will be waiting in the wings if Geno falls flat on his face. This is a very solid all-around team with a promising new head coach in Todd Bowles.
1. New England Patriots (10-6)
Much of their record will be determined by what ends up happening with Tom Brady. Right now he's looking at a four-game suspension to begin the season, but I still agree with Tom's contention that the NFL has no REAL evidence against him. Obviously we all know he did it, but it's innocent until PROVEN guilty in our society. Something tells me he'll end up with two games, at most. That's just the way things tend to work out for the hated Patriots.
Belichick's offense will be strong again once Brady is behind center, but defensively they've clearly taken a hit. Their corners are terrible. This is not a Super Bowl champion frontrunner, and they're going to get a ton of trouble from the Jets and Dolphins. The Bills will also be feisty. I don't see a repeat in Belichick's future.
4. Cleveland Browns (5-11)
In the secondary, talk about a complete 180 with the additions of Darrelle Revis, Buster Skrine and Antonio Cromartie. People still like to talk about Cromartie because he's a big name, but I actually think Skrine will be the more valuable player of the two.
Offensively, Geno Smith will be greatly assisted by the addition of veteran redzone WR Brandon Marshall. Ryan Fitzpatrick will be waiting in the wings if Geno falls flat on his face. This is a very solid all-around team with a promising new head coach in Todd Bowles.
1. New England Patriots (10-6)
Much of their record will be determined by what ends up happening with Tom Brady. Right now he's looking at a four-game suspension to begin the season, but I still agree with Tom's contention that the NFL has no REAL evidence against him. Obviously we all know he did it, but it's innocent until PROVEN guilty in our society. Something tells me he'll end up with two games, at most. That's just the way things tend to work out for the hated Patriots.
Belichick's offense will be strong again once Brady is behind center, but defensively they've clearly taken a hit. Their corners are terrible. This is not a Super Bowl champion frontrunner, and they're going to get a ton of trouble from the Jets and Dolphins. The Bills will also be feisty. I don't see a repeat in Belichick's future.
AFC NORTH
This feels like a team of misfits and castoffs. Their offense should be one of the least productive in the NFL, but their talented defense will steal a game here and there. DBs Joe Haden and Donte Whitner are among the best at their respective positions, and LBs Paul Kruger and Karlos Dansby are pro's pros. Head coach Mike Pettine will continue to get more than he should out of his suspect talent pool.
3. Baltimore Ravens (9-7)
You'd think GM Ozzie Newsome would learn his lesson -- the last time Joe Flacco only had one legitimate wide receiver to throw to, this team fell out of contention. When they had Anquan Boldin and Torrey Smith they were fine. When they had Torrey Smith and Steve Smith they were fine. When they had ONLY Torrey Smith, they struggled mightily. Now they ONLY have Steve Smith. I don't think Flacco is going to like this. I also think RB Justin Forsett should be expected to regress some.
They have a better defense than the Steelers and Bengals, but I'm not sure that'll be enough.
2. Cincinnati Bengals (9-7)
Everyone who knows me well knows that I've been cleaning up by betting against Andy Dalton in the playoffs. He's a bottom-third quarterback (middle of the pack, at best), but he's surrounded by some strong offensive talent. RB1 Jeremy Hill looked like one of the best in the game throughout last season's second half, WR1 A.J. Green is a consistent star and RB2 Giovani Bernard can make some explosive plays. The X-factors for this team will be WRs Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu -- will they do enough for the Bengals to outplay the Ravens and hang with the Steelers?
1. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6)
With Ben Roethlisberger, Le'Veon Bell, Antonio Brown and Martavis Bryant, we all know the Steelers are going to boast one of the highest scoring offenses in the league. Is their defense, a combination of aging vets and unproven youngsters, competitive enough for a Super Bowl run? I'm not sure, they may just have to outscore everyone.
4. Jacksonville Jaguars (5-11)
2. Cincinnati Bengals (9-7)
Everyone who knows me well knows that I've been cleaning up by betting against Andy Dalton in the playoffs. He's a bottom-third quarterback (middle of the pack, at best), but he's surrounded by some strong offensive talent. RB1 Jeremy Hill looked like one of the best in the game throughout last season's second half, WR1 A.J. Green is a consistent star and RB2 Giovani Bernard can make some explosive plays. The X-factors for this team will be WRs Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu -- will they do enough for the Bengals to outplay the Ravens and hang with the Steelers?
1. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6)
With Ben Roethlisberger, Le'Veon Bell, Antonio Brown and Martavis Bryant, we all know the Steelers are going to boast one of the highest scoring offenses in the league. Is their defense, a combination of aging vets and unproven youngsters, competitive enough for a Super Bowl run? I'm not sure, they may just have to outscore everyone.
AFC SOUTH
Gotta like the additions of TE Julius Thomas and RB T.J. Yeldon, but I'm not a Blake Bortles believer. Plain and simple. And this team never defends well enough.
3. Tennessee Titans (6-10)
While I may not be a Blake Bortles guy, I AM, in fact, a believer in rookie QB Marcus Mariota. Love his quick release, confidence and mobility. It's a real shame that the Titans don't have any top-tier receivers. Mariota will undoubtedly show flashes of brilliance, but his production will be bottled up by a sub-par supporting cast. I hope they improve their talent pool in the future, so this kid can reach his full potential.
2. Houston Texans (6-10)
Like the Brady situation in New England, much of Houston's success will hinge on RB Arian Foster's eventual return. Will he be out 3-to-6 weeks, or 6 months? The reports have varied. With Foster on the sideline and Andre Johnson in Indianapolis, this could be a dreadful offense. QBs Brian Hoyer and Ryan Mallett don't inspire much confidence.
Defensively, this is an all-star team featuring Watt, Wilfork, Clowney, Cushing and Joseph. I just don't think this offense will be good enough.
1. Indianapolis Colts (12-4)
Love the Johnson and Frank Gore pick-ups. They will get just the right amount of reps, with T.Y. Hilton, Donte Moncrief and Dan Herron sharing the playmaking load. Andrew Luck is going to love his new guys, but this defense is questionable as usual.
Even with the sometimes-suspect defense, I don't think there's any doubt that the Colts have the easiest path to a division title.
AFC WEST
I mean, they look better on paper with guys like Michael Crabtree, Amari Cooper and Roy Helu -- it's a start. I don't think they will be terrible, and they may even win seven. Still not going to be in the playoff discussion due to a competitive division and better Wild Card options like the Jets, Dolphins, Ravens and Bengals.
3. San Diego Chargers (7-9)
I'm outsourcing this one -- my buddy who is an expert on offensive and defensive lines says the Chargers' O-line is in absolute shambles. That, coupled with the fact that I'm not "feeling" San Diego this season, feels like 7-9 or 8-8 (at best) are very safe bets.
2. Kansas City Chiefs (9-7)
Man, the race for the two AFC Wild Card spots is really going to be a dogfight. The Chiefs will be right in there (seemingly as always) with their addition of WR1 Jeremy Maclin. Clearly he won't be as productive as he was in Chip Kelly's video game offense, but he will definitely help take some of the pressure off RB1 Jamaal Charles and TE Travis Kelce.
And this defense is always serviceable; especially at home.
1. Denver Broncos (11-5)
I'm down on Peyton Manning but high on C.J. Anderson; the latter was super impressive down the stretch of last season. WRs Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders are an outstanding tandem. There's a ton of talent on this defense. They still won't get over the hump in the end, though.
NFC EAST
When I'm reading things like, "Multiple high-ranking NFL execs think Robert Griffin III is DONE," that doesn't exactly inspire confidence. HC Jay Gruden is also kind of an asshole who sells out his players to make himself look smart. This is still a dysfunctional bunch; don't let their offseason of positivity and praise fool you.
RB Alfred Morris also has nothing left in his legs.
3. Philadelphia Eagles (7-9)
I don't like Chip Kelly or Sam Bradford, this team's receivers are suspect and their defense (as usual) will blitz and gamble more than anything else. I love DeMarco Murray, but this is an over-hyped squad. I think Mark Sanchez is better than Bradford. Looking forward to the latter falling on his face.
2. New York Giants (9-7)
It's hard not to like New York's offensive core of Eli Manning, Odell Beckham, Victor Cruz, Rashad Jennings, Shane Vereen and Larry Donnell (with RB Andre Williams and WR Rueben Randle also worth mention). If Cruz is 100% this could be a 10-win team, though I don't think he will be.
Conversely, we may be looking at one of the worst defensive teams in the NFL here. In terms of personnel, the Giants appear to be built similarly to the Steelers.
1. Dallas Cowboys (10-6)
I want the DeMarco decision to burn them SO badly, but Jerry Jones' boys still appear to be the best in their division. New RB1 Joseph Randle has shown some nice flashes in the past; nevertheless, he's still the team's biggest overall question mark. Clearly he won't be as effective as DeMarco, but Dallas does boast one of the premier offensive lines in the game. The holes will be there.
Honestly, I still feel bad about last season -- that Dez Bryant "drop" against the Packers was absolutely excruciating to watch. As a career-long Tony Romo supporter, that was a tough pill to swallow. This year is going to be different for me because I vehemently disagree with their decision to let DeMarco walk. To make matters worse he ends up with the division-rival Eagles.
So yeah, I'll be rooting for the Cowboys, but not.
4. Chicago Bears (6-10)
NFC NORTH
I'm just kind of sick of this team. They are like the Redskins, in a way -- lot of drama, mostly centered on a shitty quarterback. Jay Cutler is a cancer and everyone knows it, including the people who inked him to an absurdly lucrative extension. You can't win with Cutler and a suspect defense. Period.
3. Minnesota Vikings (8-8)
Now this is an interesting team. I was leaning toward 7-9, but they showed plenty of life last season even without Adrian Peterson and the newly-acquired Mike Wallace. Teddy Bridgewater is a gamer, and this team appeared to take on a bit of his personality. I think 8-8 is safe, but 9-7 isn't out of the question for this intriguing group.
2. Detroit Lions (9-7)
Ndamukong Suh and Reggie Bush are big losses. Haloti Ngata and Theo Riddick will step into those roles respectively, but that's a level below what they had. Gotta love their trio in the passing game of Matthew Stafford, Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate, but I'm still not sold on Joique Bell as a RB1.
The Lions do have two of my favorite defensive players, LB DeAndre Levy and SS James Ihedigbo. That's a duo that plays with ferocity and intensity all the time. They truly create havoc. This team should be able to hold off the Vikings for 2nd, but it's not a lock.
1. Green Bay Packers (12-4)
Green Bay is the class of the division and will certainly be in contention for the NFC title. Aaron Rodgers is the best player in the world, WRs Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb and Davante Adams are a superb trio, RB Eddie Lacy is slow but steady and B.J. Raji, Clay Matthews, Julius Peppers, Sam Shields and Ha Ha Clinton-Dix are all excellent defenders.
I've never been a huge Mike McCarthy guy, but he does seem to outsmart opposing head coaches more often than not.
NFC SOUTH
I'm not gonna lie, hearing that rookie QB Jameis Winston was throwing careless picks left and right the first few days of camp made a poor first impression on me. Given his history of erratic behavior and sometimes overzealous play, I would have preferred to hear some positive early reports about a changed man. Instead I'm picturing Winston throwing twice as many interceptions as touchdowns in his rookie campaign.
WR Vincent Jackson is clearly on the decline, the running back position has been a question mark of late for this franchise and their defensive is average, even if they do have my friend from UConn -- name drop! -- solid and savvy linebacker Danny Lansanah. Good luck, Danny!
3. New Orleans Saints (6-10)
Oh, how the mighty have fallen. Drew Brees' arm just isn't what it used to be and this team is all-in on WR Brandin Cooks, and I ain't buyin' it. He's a tiny wideout with some speed and shiftiness, he's not a franchise WR1. Like Vincent Jackson in the previous synopsis, WR Marques Colston is also slowing dramatically.
As always, New Orleans' defense will increase the blood pressure of its fans to unsafe levels. Possible candidate to be severely overrated.
2. Carolina Panthers (7-9)
Although I won a significant sum of money betting against the Panthers in the postseason, I actually liked what I saw from Cam Newton against the salivating Seattle Seahawks D. I thought he performed about as well as he possibly could. It's not him I'm worried about -- it's his receiving corps and oft-injured RB1 Jonathan Stewart. WR1 Kelvin Benjamin has to improve his toughness, physicality and versatility to be a real factor in close games this season.
On the bright side, "Riverboat" Ron Rivera's defense is easily the best in this division. They could plausibly squeak out another division crown, they'll just have to get a few breaks here and there.
1. Atlanta Falcons (8-8)
It's the weakest division in the NFL, so I'm going with the best 1-2 punch in Matt Ryan and Julio Jones. I'm also thinking new head coach Dan Quinn will maximize the little talent that he does have on defense. Former HC Mike Smith was a glorified babysitter and nothing more; it's likely that a real football coach like Quinn will get more out of a similar group of players.
Nevertheless, this division battle will come down to the home stretch. It's Panthers or Falcons. Flip a coin.
NFC WEST
I don't think this team will be as bad as most are anticipating. LB Patrick Willis and DL Justin Smith were outstanding players, but at the end of the day it's easier to replace defensive players than offensive skill players. Offensively the Niners have Colin Kaepernick, Torrey Smith, Anquan Boldin, Vernon Davis, Reggie Bush and Carlos Hyde. That ain't bad at all. They will compete but this division is tough.
3. Arizona Cardinals (8-8)
I really think this franchise is going to miss former DC Todd Bowles. I don't think this defense will be as explosive or effective. Also, as many of you know, I've never really been a believer in Carson Palmer. Can't win the big ones with him. Expect a slight regression here.
2. St. Louis Rams (9-7)
Feels like it may be their time to get over the hump (a bit). A very fast, aggressive and talented defense. One of the premier head coaches in the game. Also, Nick Foles clearly won't be able to duplicate his bloated production from Chip Kelly's offense, but I do like him in general. He's tall, pretty patient and is surprisingly tough on third downs. He can make clutch throws and is actually tougher than he appears. He's not a star but I certainly like him better than Shaun Hill or Sam Bradford.
The Rams also make key plays on special teams. It's not a fluke; it's well-designed scheming.
1. Seattle Seahawks (12-4)
Not much reason to expect regression here. And, well, they added Jimmy Graham. I think Russell Wilson will like his new toy.
PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS
AFC Playoff teams: 1. Colts 2. Broncos 3. Steelers 4. Patriots 5. Jets 6. Bengals
NFC Playoff teams: 1. Packers 2. Seahawks 3. Cowboys 4. Falcons 5. Lions 6. Rams
AFC Wild Card Weekend: Steelers over Bengals and Jets over Patriots
NFC Wild Card Weekend: Cowboys over Rams and Lions over Falcons
AFC Semis: Colts over Jets and Steelers over Broncos
NFC Semis: Packers over Lions and Seahawks over Cowboys
AFC Championship: Colts over Steelers, 34-31
NFC Championship: Packers over Seahawks, 27-20
SUPER BOWL
As always, I welcome your questions and/or comments. Thanks for reading.
No comments:
Post a Comment