Thursday, May 17, 2018

2018 Eastern Conference Finals: Has LeBron Infantilized His Teammates?

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As the Cleveland Cavaliers moped off the court Tuesday night -- heads down, shoulders slumped -- LeBron James waited with his arms extended. He slapped five with each and every one of his deflated teammates, a gesture that screamed typical LeBron. "The King" was playing for the cameras, as always, but I don't think many of us were buying the fake camaraderie.

To the contrary of his outward behavior, I wonder, is LeBron to blame for the Cavs' finger-pointing and overall dysfunction?

Before I dive into this abyss, let's get one thing straight: LeBron is the reason the Cavs have reached the Eastern Conference Finals. He's the reason they swept a better all-around team in the Raptors. So, I'm not questioning his on-court value, and I never would.

The questions here are...has LeBron pumped his teammates full of confidence? Has he welcomed Jordan Clarkson, Rodney Hood, George Hill and Larry Nance? As the GM, head coach, leader and face of the franchise, has he gone the extra mile to make sure Koby Altman's acquisitions settled into comfortable roles within Cleveland's offense? What about simply teaching them how to play off his penetration and one-on-one playmaking?

Tuesday Hood played 11 minutes. Same for Nance. Hill scored 3 points in 33 minutes and last but not least...Clarkson was a DNP Coach's Decision!

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I mean seriously, how can that be? In just 29 minutes per game last season, Clarkson averaged 15 points for the Baby Lakers. The athletic young guard shot roughly 45% from the floor and 80% from the line. For most of his career, he's been an aggressive offensive performer with sneaky explosiveness off the bounce. That very same player is averaging 5.1 PPG this postseason on 32% FG shooting.

How can you get so much worse, playing with the best basketball player in the world? An unselfish on-court player, no less. Something isn't adding up, here.

On February 11, in Clarkson's first game with the Cavs, he went 7-of-11 with 17 points in just 23 minutes. He connected on 3-of-4 from downtown, while chipping in 3 rebounds and 2 steals. The Cavs played with a ton of energy that night, and LeBron made a concerted effort to seek out both Clarkson and Hood. The latter left-hander drilled 6-of-11 for 15 points, 3 threes and 3 rebounds. In these playoffs, Hood is averaging 4.9 points and shooting 11% from three.

So what the hell happened to these kids? Hood was considered a primary scorer for a Jazz playoff team. Clarkson was a go-to one-on-one creator for the Lakers. Why have they dissipated into thin air playing alongside LeBron?

Of course, one explanation is that they are choking. Maybe they can't handle the scrutiny of a team that gets national TV exposure and daily hot takes from industry pundits. Maybe LeBron's reputation alone is too much for them to handle. But I don't know. I saw a lot of potential in their very first game with the Cavs.

They CRUSHED the Celtics 121-99 that night. And Kyrie Irving was out there and healthy for the Celtics at that point. The Cavs were the darlings of media coverage the next day. "GM" Altman was getting plenty of positive buzz. Everyone was saying it was Cleveland's conference to lose.

Something is different now. Hood played his way out of the rotation, eventually leading to his refusal to enter a playoff game at garbage time. That's bush league, and has nothing to do with LeBron -- I personally think Hood should have been suspended by the team for the remainder of the playoffs -- but why have things devolved to this point? Why haven't Clarkson or Hood received the touches they had on night one in a Cleveland uniform?

In the end, the players have to perform. They may not like their roles or lack of rhythm touches, but you have to play well if you want an expanded role.

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The problem for LeBron, Tyronn Lue and their Cavs is that this isn't the best possible version of their team. Right now they are leaning on veterans who will do an adequate job -- Kyle Korver, Tristan Thompson and J.R. Smith -- but they didn't unload Isaiah Thomas, Dwyane Wade, Jae Crowder and Derrick Rose to get NOTHING in return.

One would think LeBron, Lue and Altman would want to conjure ways to make Clarkson, Hood and Nance integral parts of their steady rotation. That just hasn't happened. And we know LeBron has a history of taking the credit when things are going well, then throwing his teammates under the bus when they aren't.

The Warriors and Celtics thrive on positive energy passed from the front office down to the coaching staff and through the players. Everyone keeps each other upbeat. Positive plays are rewarded; negative plays are forgotten.

That's not the way it goes with LeBron. It wasn't like that with Michael Jordan or Kobe Bryant, either. Some stars expect greatness, and berate anything below it.

Clarkson, Hood and Nance probably would have been better off in a more welcoming "team" environment, but that's just not the situation they are in. And they haven't made the best of it.

Can this hodgepodge group of misfit toys put it together in Game 3?

I guess we'll have to wait and see.

Wednesday, May 9, 2018

Dissecting the Playoff Careers of CP3, Curry, Harden & Westbrook: Are These Guys Clutch?

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Late Sunday night, I was taking a beating from Mark "HD" Rue and Ernest "E-Sharp" Lindain.

The following evening, Sam Ytuarte and Billy Valeriano continued the assault on my opinions. So what were these four, sophisticated NBA minds so worked up about?

Well, I refused to call Stephen Curry "clutch." I told them all that LeBron James and Kevin Durant are at the top of the heap -- in terms of carrying over their regular season production into the postseason --  while Curry, Chris Paul, James Harden and Russell Westbrook are in a similar category...one where their clutchability can be questioned because their playoff production dips below who they've established themselves to be.

Before I get into the comparisons, I want to establish some important points:

(1) I try not to punish or reward an individual player too much for his TEAM'S ultimate success in the postseason. For example, until now, Harden has never had a Rockets' team that could compete with the depth and talent of Steph's Warriors. How can we say trite things like his team has never won it all, when he's never actually had the best team? However, this season, since the Rockets were the No. 1 seed in the West, we can knock Harden if he struggles and Houston ultimately loses in the Western Conference Finals.

(2) When I evaluate players and their teams' runs in the postseason, I compare them to what they have already established. For example, I'm not gonna say, well, Anthony Davis and the Pelicans didn't come through because they lost in the Western Conference Semifinals. Based on what we knew coming in, they went as far as they should have gone, right? They weren't beating the Warriors or Rockets, so they accomplished what they should have, if not better. Their season was a success, even though they lost.

I'm sure more will come up, but let's get into it...

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Part I: Career Postseason Averages

Chris Paul: 10 postseason appearances, 37.4 minutes per game, 21.5 pts, 9.1 asts, 4.8 rebs, 2.6 TOs, 0.1 blks, 2.2 stls, 48.5% FG, 4.9 FT attempts, 84.9% FT, 4.3 3pt attempts and 38% 3pt. 

James Harden: 9 postseason appearances, 34.5 minutes per game, 21.5 pts, 5.5 asts, 5.2 rebs, 3.2 TOs, 0.4 blks, 1.7 stls, 42.0% FG, 7.8 FT attempts, 87.1% FT, 6.4 3pt attempts and 33.6% 3pt. 

Stephen Curry: 6 postseason appearances, 37.5 minutes per game, 26.1 pts, 6.5 asts, 5.1 rebs, 3.7 TOs, 0.2 blks, 1.8 stls, 45.4% FG, 5.2 FT attempts, 89.1% FT, 10.1 3pt attempts and 41.2% 3pt. 

Russell Westbrook: 8 postseason appearances, 37.9 minutes per game, 25.5 pts, 7.8 asts, 6.9 rebs, 3.9 TOs, 0.3 blks, 1.9 stls, 41.3% FG, 7.7 FT attempts, 84.0% FT, 4.6 3pt attempts and 30% 3pt. 

Important Points and Observations

1. Directly comparing their numbers isn't the best way to analyze these players. There are dozens of reasons why, but here are a few in short order:

2. Their styles of play are different. Curry relies on the three-point line, as we can see from his 10.1 attempts per playoff game, which are more than DOUBLE both Paul and Westbrook. Harden and Westbrook love to attack the basket and get to the charity stripe, as evidenced by their nearly identical FT attempt averages around 7.7-7.8. Curry and Paul are more around 5. Three extra FT attempts per game can be valuable, particularly at the end of close games. 

3. Westbrook's usage rate is through the roof. Behind Michael Jordan, he's second in the history of the NBA in having the ball in his hands. Harden is 17th, Curry is 25th and Paul is 110th. Obviously, that makes Paul more efficient, and Westbrook less. You could say that Westbrook has an unfair advantage in the cumulative statistics, while Paul has a clear disadvantage. 

4. As you can see, Harden has the LEAST minutes per game because Scott Brooks was on Mars early in his career. "The Beard" played only 20 minutes per game in the 2009-10 playoffs. Only 31.6 minutes in 10-11, compared to 43.8 with the Rockets in 13-14. 

5. These are guards and as you can see from the stats, blocks aren't important. I am officially eliminating blocks from this discussion. 

Part II: Ranking the Importance of the Stat Categories (per game)

This is MY opinion, in terms of importance to success in basketball, particularly for star guards like these:

1. Points
2. FG% 
3. Assists 
4. Free throw attempts
5. Three-point attempts (we know the teams that attempt more threes tend to be more successful in recent years)
6. Turnovers
7. Three-point percentage
8. Rebounds
9. Free throw percentage
10. Steals

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Part III: Ranking CP3, Steph, Beard & Russ on Pure Playoff Averages

1. Points: Curry, Westbrook, Harden/Paul (tie)

2. Points, adjusted for Harden's time in Houston, only (to be fair in terms of usage and being an offensive focal point for his team): Harden, Curry, Westbrook, Paul. Harden averages 27.5 PPG. 

3. FG%: Paul, Curry, Harden, Westbrook. 

4. Assists: Paul, Westbrook, Curry, Harden. 

5. Assists, adjusted for Harden's time in Houston: Paul, Harden, Curry, Westbrook. Harden averages 7.2 APG. 

6. FT Attempts: Harden, Westbrook, Curry, Paul. 

7. 3pt Attempts: Curry, Harden, Westbrook, Paul. 

8. Turnovers (least to most): Paul, Harden, Curry, Westbrook. 

9. Turnovers, adjusted for Harden's time in Houston: Paul, Curry, Westbrook, Harden. Harden averages 4.3 turnovers per game. 

10. 3pt %: Curry, Paul, Harden, Westbrook. 

11. Rebounds: Westbrook, Harden, Curry, Paul. 

12. FT%: Curry, Harden, Paul, Westbrook. FT percentage is not very important for this group. Everyone is an excellent FT shooter. None of them are a liability. 

13: Steals: Paul, other 3 essentially tied. 

14. Steals, adjusted for Harden's time in Houston: Paul, Harden, Westbrook, Curry. Harden moves to 2.0 stls per game. Still negligible with Westbrook and Curry. Overall steals aren't very important within this foursome. 

Important Points and Observations

1. We're really splitting hairs here, aren't we?

2. It's really only fair to focus on Harden's time in Houston. Curry, Paul and Westbrook have ALWAYS been playoff focal points for their respective teams. Harden was not a focal point in OKC because of Westbrook and Durant. 

3. Harden wins points and free throw attempts. 

4. Curry wins three-point attempts, three-point percentage and free throw percentage. 

5. Paul wins FG%, assists, least turnovers and steals. 

6. Westbrook wins rebounds. 

You are free to draw your own conclusions from these results. Depends on the stat categories you value. 

Part IV: Career Regular Season Averages

Chris Paul: 13 seasons, 35.3 minutes per game, 18.7 pts, 9.8 asts, 4.5 rebs, 2.4 TOs, 2.3 stls, 47.2 FG%, 4.9 FT attempts, 86.8 FT%, 3.4 3pt attempts and 37.2 3pt %. 

James Harden: 9 seasons, 33.8 minutes per game, 23 pts, 6.1 asts, 5.1 rebs, 3.5 TOs, 1.5 stls, 44.3 FG%, 8.3 FT attempts, 85.4 FT%, 6.6 3pt attempts and 36.4 3pt %. 

Harden on the Rockets, only: 27.9 PPG, 7.7 APG, 4.3 TOs

Stephen Curry: 9 seasons, 34.4 minutes per game, 23.1 pts, 6.8 asts, 4.4 rebs, 3.2 TOs, 1.8 stls, 47.7 FG%, 4 FT attempts, 90.3 FT%, 7.8 3pt attempts and 43.6% 3pt %. 

Russell Westbrook: 10 seasons, 34.4 minutes per game, 23.0 pts, 8.2 asts, 4.0 TOs, 1.7 stls, 43.5 FG%, 7.2 FT attempts, 81.4 FT%, 3.5 3pt attempts and 31.1 3pt %. 

Part V: Comparing Regular Season Performance to the Playoffs

In my opinion, this is the BEST way to determine if a player is clutch in the playoffs, status quo or chokes a bit. I mean, WE ARE TALKING ABOUT 4 OF THE BEST PLAYERS IN THE HISTORY OF BASKETBALL, HERE. No one is disputing how good any of these guys are. To pick between them is generally a matter of preference. 

But...if we're talking about clutch...well, shouldn't you at least be able to duplicate your regular season output? Maybe not because defenses are tougher and opposing teams are better. Who the hell knows? So many questions and hypotheticals...

The most important comparisons are points, FG%, assists, turnovers, FT attempts, 3pt attempts and 3pt%. 

Chris Paul: Increases 2.8 PPG, Drops 0.7 APG, Adds 0.2 TOs, Increases 1.3% FG, exactly the same FT attempts, adds 0.9 3pt attempts and Increases 0.8% in 3pt. Summary: Improves in 4 categories, gets worse in 2, stays the same in 1. 

James Harden (first 3 categories, Rockets only, rest are all-inclusive): Drops 0.4 PPG, Drops 0.5 APG, exact same turnovers, Drops 2.3% FG, Drops 2.8 3pt% too lazy for FT and 3pt attempt calculations, but both of his increase in the playoffs. Summary: Improves in 2 categories, gets worse in 4, stays the same in 1. 

Stephen Curry: Increases 3 PPG, Drops 0.3 APG, Adds 0.5 TOs, Drops 2.3% FG, Adds 1.2 FT attempts, adds 2.3 3pt attempts and Drops 2.4% in 3pt. Summary: Improves in 3 categories, gets worse in 4. 

Russell Westbrook: Increases 2.5 PPG, Drops 0.4 asts, Drops 0.1 TOs, FG% Drops 2.2, Increases 0.5 FT attempts, Increases 3pt attempts by 2.9 and Increases 3 pt% by 2.5. Summary: Improves in 4 categories, gets worse in 2, essentially the same in turnovers. 

Important Points and Observations

1. Paul, Curry and Westbrook all have significant point increases. Harden is basically status quo. 

2. Paul attempts an extra three-pointer per game in the playoffs, and his percentage goes UP. 

3. Harden has notable drops in FG% and 3pt%. 

4. Curry has notable drops in FG% and 3pt%. 

5. Westbrook has a notable drop in FG%. 

6. Who would have thought that Westbrook's three-point percentage would INCREASE by 2.5?

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Part VI: Team Success

1. Playoff appearances: Paul (10), Harden (9), Westbrook (8) and Curry (6). 

2. Conference Finals appearances: Curry (4, 1 pending), Harden (4, 1 pending), Westbrook (4) and Paul (1). 

3. NBA Finals appearances: Curry (3), Westbrook (1), Harden (1) and Paul (0). 

4. NBA Finals wins: Curry (2), Harden (0), Westbrook (0) and Paul (0). 

I think Part V is the best indicator of clutchability, but everyone is certainly entitled to their opinion. 

So...what is your conclusion?

Wednesday, May 2, 2018

MLB Top 250 Players: Electric Aces, Outstanding Outfielders and A Special Second Baseman Top My List

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With the NBA Playoffs and NFL Draft dominating recent headlines here at John Frascella Sports, my MLB Top 250 Players series has been forced to take a backseat. With that in mind, I'm going to wrap it up in one shot. Here's how we got to this point:

Players 250 down to 240
Players 239 down to 230
Players 229 down to 201
Players 200 down to 180

And remember, these rankings were compiled PRIOR to the 2018 MLB season. Countdown...right now:

179. Greg Holland, RP, Cardinals

178. Maikel Franco, 3B, Phillies

177. Adam Eaton, OF, Nationals

176. Rich Hill, SP, Dodgers

175. Steven Souza, OF, Diamondbacks

174. Alex Cobb, SP, Orioles

173. Rougned Odor, 2B, Rangers

172. Matt Kemp, OF, Dodgers

171. Danny Duffy, SP, Royals

170. Sonny Gray, SP, Yankees

169. Fernando Rodney, CP, Twins

168. Jed Lowrie, 2B, A's

167. Justin Bour, 1B, Marlins

166. Kevin Kiermaier, CF, Rays

165. Shin-Soo Choo, OF, Rangers

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164. Felix Hernandez, SP, Mariners

163. Ian Happ, OF, Cubs

162. Mark Trumbo, DH, Orioles

161. Kendrys Morales, DH, Blue Jays

160. Whit Merrifield, 2B, Royals

159. J.T. Realmuto, C, Marlins

158. Cesar Hernandez, 2B, Phillies

157. Rafael Devers, 3B, Red Sox

156. Dylan Bundy, SP, Orioles

155. Scooter Gennett, 2B, Reds

154. Jon Gray, SP, Rockies

153. Dustin Pedroia, 2B, Red Sox

152. Marwin Gonzalez, Utility, Astros

151. Cole Hamels, SP, Rangers

150. Billy Hamilton, OF, Reds

149. Jeurys Familia, CP, Mets

148. Roberto Osuna, CP, Blue Jays

147. Ken Giles, CP, Astros

146. Jake Odorizzi, SP, Twins

145. Logan Morrison, DH, Twins

144. Brad Hand, RP, Padres

143. Kevin Pillar, OF, Blue Jays

142. Lance Lynn, SP, Twins

141. David Robertson, RP, Yankees

140. Chris Taylor, OF, Dodgers

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139. Yasiel Puig, OF, Dodgers

138. Brett Gardner, OF, Dodgers

137. Ender Inciarte, OF, Braves

136. Evan Longoria, 3B, Giants

135. Aaron Nola, SP, Phillies

134. Domingo Santana, OF, Brewers

133. Matt Carpenter, 3B, Cardinals

132. Trey Mancini, OF, Orioles

131. Raisel Iglesias, CP, Reds

130. Rick Porcello, SP, Red Sox

129. Felipe Rivero, CP, Pirates

128. Zach Britton, CP, Orioles

127. Josh Bell, 1B, Pirates

126. Cody Allen, CP, Indians

125. Jeff Samardzija, SP, Giants

124. Kyle Seager, 3B, Mariners

123. Joey Gallo, 1B, Rangers

122. Eduardo Nunez, Utility, Red Sox

121. Drew Pomeranz, SP, Red Sox

120. J.A. Happ, SP, Blue Jays

119. Andrelton Simmons, SS, Angels

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118. Alex Bregman, 3B, Astros

117. Willson Contreras, C, Cubs

116. Yuli Gurriel, 1B, Astros

115. Michael Conforto, OF, Mets

114. Eddie Rosario, OF, Twins

113. Marcus Stroman, SP, Blue Jays

112. Jose Berrios, SP, Twins

111. Masahiro Tanaka, SP, Yankees

110. Wil Myers, OF, Padres

109. Avisail Garcia, OF, White Sox

108. Mike Moustakas, 3B, Royals

107. Alex Colome, CP, Rays

106. Jose Quintana, SP, Cubs

105. David Price, SP, Red Sox

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104. Rhys Hoskins, OF, Phillies

103. DJ LeMahieu, 2B, Rockies

102. Xander Bogaerts, SS, Red Sox

101. Zack Cozart, 3B, Angels

JOHN FRASCELLA'S TOP 100 MLB PLAYERS

100. Ryan Zimmerman, 1B, Nationals

99. Carlos Santana, 1B, Phillies

98. Hanley Ramirez, Utility, Red Sox

97. Michael Fulmer, SP, Tigers

96. Alex Wood, SP, Dodgers

95. Ervin Santana, SP, Twins

94. Lance McCullers, SP, Astros

93. Salvador Perez, C, Royals

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92. Yadier Molina, C, Cardinals

91. Miguel Cabrera, 1B, Tigers

90. Travis Shaw, 3B, Brewers

89. James Paxton, SP, Mariners

88. Miguel Sano, 3B, Twins

87. Starling Marte, OF, Pirates

86. Jean Segura, SS, Mariners

85. Christian Yelich, OF, Brewers

84. Adam Duvall, OF, Reds

83. Jonathan Schoop, 2B, Orioles

82. Johnny Cueto, SP, Giants

81. Jay Bruce, OF, Mets

80. Adrian Beltre, 3B, Rangers

79. Gio Gonzalez, SP, Nationals

78. Trevor Bauer, SP, Indians

77. Wade Davis, CP, Rockies

76. Jake Lamb, 3B, Diamondbacks

75. Andrew Benintendi, OF, Red Sox

74. Corey Knebel, CP, Brewers

73. Adam Jones, OF, Orioles

72. Justin Smoak, 1B, Blue Jays

71. Luis Severino, SP, Yankees

70. Chris Archer, SP, Rays

69. Elvis Andrus, SS, Rangers

68. Gerrit Cole, SP, Astros

67. Carlos Carrasco, SP, Indians

66. Robbie Ray, SP, Diamondbacks

65. Jon Lester, SP, Cubs

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64. A.J. Pollock, OF, Diamondbacks

63. Kyle Hendricks, SP, Cubs

62. Ryan Braun, OF, Brewers

61. Tommy Pham, OF, Cardinals

60. Trea Turner, SS, Nationals

59. Didi Gregorius, SS, Yankees

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58. Yu Darvish, SP, Cubs

57. Andrew McCutchen, OF, Giants

56. Lorenzo Cain, OF, Brewers

55. Dee Gordon, OF, Mariners

54. Carlos Martinez, SP, Cardinals

53. Jake Arrieta, SP, Phillies

52. Aroldis Chapman, CP, Yankees

51. Buster Posey, C, Giants

THE TOP 50 BASEBALL PLAYERS IN THE WORLD

50. Anthony Rendon, 3B, Nationals

49. Cody Bellinger, 1B, Dodgers

48. Eric Hosmer, 1B, Padres

47. Andrew Miller, RP, Indians

46. Justin Upton, OF, Angels

45. Robinson Cano, 2B, Mariners

44. Kenley Jansen, CP, Dodgers

43. Zack Greinke, SP, Diamondbacks

42. Edwin Encarnacion, 1B, Indians

41. Anthony Rizzo, 1B, Cubs

40. Craig Kimbrel, CP, Red Sox

39. Dallas Keuchel, SP, Astros

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38. Yoenis Cespedes, OF, Mets

37. Gary Sanchez, C, Yankees

36. Khris Davis, OF, A's

35. Madison Bumgarner, SP, Giants

34. Brian Dozier, 2B, Twins

33. Jose Abreu, 1B, White Sox

32. Noah Syndergaard, SP, Mets

31. George Springer, OF, Astros

30. Corey Seager, SS, Dodgers

29. Jose Ramirez, 3B, Indians

28. Marcell Ozuna, OF, Cardinals

27. Justin Turner, 3B, Dodgers

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26. Stephen Strasburg, SP, Nationals

THE TOP 25 BALLPLAYERS IN THE UNIVERSE

25. Josh Donaldson, 3B, Blue Jays

24. Justin Verlander, SP, Astros

23. Daniel Murphy, 2B, Nationals

22. Jacob deGrom, SP, Mets

21. Manny Machado, SS/3B, Orioles

20. Mookie Betts, OF, Red Sox

19. Francisco Lindor, SS, Indians

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18. Freddie Freeman, 1B, Braves

17. Giancarlo Stanton, OF, Yankees

16. Nelson Cruz, DH, Mariners

15. Carlos Correa, SS, Astros

14. Kris Bryant, 3B, Cubs

13. J.D. Martinez, OF, Red Sox

12. Corey Kluber, SP, Indians

11. Joey Votto, 1B, Reds

THE ABSOLUTE BEST OF THE BEST

10. Charlie Blackmon, OF, Rockies

9. Nolan Arenado, 3B, Rockies

8. Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, Diamondbacks

7. Aaron Judge, OF, Yankees

6. Clayton Kershaw, SP, Dodgers

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5. Bryce Harper, OF, Nationals

4. Chris Sale, SP, Red Sox

3. Mike Trout, OF, Angels

2. Max Scherzer, SP, Nationals

1. Jose Altuve, 2B, Astros

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ANGRY DISAGREEMENTS ARE ALWAYS WELCOME!

Wednesday, April 25, 2018

NBA Top 50 Players List: Is Anthony Davis Coming for LeBron, KD and The Beard?

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Human beings are creatures of habit.

Every year at this time -- because of the passion, competitiveness and excitement of the NBA Playoffs -- I feel the urge to rank the best basketball players in the world. Of course, the obvious issue is that there are about 70-80 all-star caliber players in the league right now. I've never seen a talent base like this.

And then there's the age-old question...what makes one player better than another? How do we distinguish between polar opposite superstars like Giannis Antetokounmpo and Stephen Curry? What about the differences between Anthony Davis and Russell Westbrook? And exactly how much weight should we place on the postseason?

Well, this is what I wrote in last year's rankings:

1. With the exception of the unselfish, ball movement offenses of the Warriors and Spurs, most NBA teams rely on one-on-one play down the stretch of tight games. So, can this player use the drive/pass/shoot threat to effectively manipulate opposing defenses at crunchtime? Can this star lead his team to victory with controlled, high-percentage, high-IQ plays under pressure?

2. Does this player have a positive impact on the on-and-off court culture of his club? Basketball is a team game and rhythm sport, so a selfish star can spiral a team in the wrong direction. A good attitude is contagious. That's a cold you want to catch. 

3. Is this player consistently healthy?

(I'm not even going to mention physical ability because that's a given on this list, right? Well, I guess I just mentioned it anyway.) 

And much of that is still true, but I'd like to add the following: 

The regular season isn't real. It's one, long 82-game illusion. Look at some of these trends: 

1. In the 2015/16 regular season, Curry shot 50.4% from the floor. In the playoffs, he dropped down to 43.8%. 

2. In the 2016/17 regular season, James Harden shot 44% from the floor. In the playoffs, he dropped down to 41%. His three-point shooting dropped from 34.7% to 27.8%. 

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3. In the 2017/18 regular season, Westbrook shot 44.9% from the floor. In 4 playoff games against the feisty Jazz, he is shooting 36.7%. 

So what's the explanation for this phenomenon? Well, the easy way out is to say that they are choking -- and let's be honest, Curry, Harden and Westbrook have ALL displayed some mental issues/blocks in the playoffs -- but the reality lies somewhere in here:

1. NBA players make millions and millions of dollars. Eighty-two regular season games, plus travel -- that's asking a lot. Yes, these guys have some of the best strength-and-conditioning coaches in the world, but that doesn't change the fact that basketball is a physically taxing game. That means, not surprisingly, guys take nights off. Sometimes, during the regular season, they are merely going through the motions. The result is that super-talented players like Westbrook, Harden and Curry can easily pad their stats against minimal defensive effort. Very simply, in the playoffs, that minimal effort transitions to MAXIMUM. 

2. Not only are they playing against a higher level of defensive effort, they are also contending with a higher level of overall play. We're talking about the best teams and players in the world, here. 

3. High-leverage games usually mean more minutes on the floor. That can sometimes lead to fatigue at exactly the wrong times. And of course, pressure, pressure, pressure. 

So hell yeahhhh the playoffs matter! The regular season isn't real NBA basketball. Stars should be evaluated under pressure against max-effort D. 

Anyway, enough foreplay, let's get into my list...

I've written about these guys so many times in the past, that this is LIST ONLY. If you'd like to read some past analysis, go here:

2016-17 NBA Top 100 Players (beginning of season)

HONORABLE MENTION (in no particular order)

Nikola Mirotic, PF, Pelicans

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Jaylen Brown, SF, Celtics

Enes Kanter, C, Knicks

DeAndre Jordan, C, Clippers

Isaiah Thomas, PG, Lakers

Dario Saric, PF, 76ers

Nikola Vucevic, C, Magic


JOHNNY FRO'S TOP 50 NBA PLAYERS AS OF APRIL 25, 2018


50. Aaron Gordon, F, Magic

49. Dwight Howard, C, Hornets

48. Al Horford, C, Celtics

47. Lou Williams, G, Clippers

46. Tobias Harris, F, Clippers

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45. Andrew Wiggins, SF, Timberwolves

44. Mike Conley, PG, Grizzlies

43. Clint Capela, C, Rockets

42. Gordon Hayward, G/F, Celtics

41. Ricky Rubio, PG, Jazz

40. Paul Millsap, PF, Nuggets

39. Rudy Gobert, C, Jazz

38. Goran Dragic, PG, Heat

37. Kevin Love, PF, Cavs

36. Kristaps Porzingis, PF, Knicks

35. Blake Griffin, PF, Pistons

34. Kyle Lowry, PG, Raptors

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33. Khris Middleton, G/F, Bucks

32. C.J. McCollum, SG, Blazers

31. Marc Gasol, C, Grizzlies

30. Bradley Beal, SG, Wizards

29. Kemba Walker, PG, Hornets

28. Karl-Anthony Towns, C, Timberwolves

27. Draymond Green, PF, Warriors

26. Devin Booker, G/F, Suns

25. Nikola Jokic, C, Nuggets

24. Andre Drummond, C, Pistons

23. DeMarcus Cousins, C, Pelicans

22. Klay Thompson, SG, Warriors

21. Donovan Mitchell, SG, Jazz

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20. Jrue Holiday, PG, Pelicans

19. Victor Oladipo, SG, Pacers

18. LaMarcus Aldridge, PF, Spurs

17. Jimmy Butler, G/F, Timberwolves

16. Kawhi Leonard, SF, Spurs

15. Paul George, SF, Thunder

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14. Ben Simmons, G/F, 76ers

13. Joel Embiid, C, 76ers

12. DeMar DeRozan, SG, Raptors

11. Damian Lillard, PG, Blazers

10. John Wall, PG, Wizards

9. Kyrie Irving, PG, Celtics

8. Chris Paul, PG, Rockets

7. Russell Westbrook, PG, Thunder

6. Giannis Antetokounmpo, G/F/C, Bucks

5. Anthony Davis, PF, Pelicans

4. Stephen Curry, PG, Warriors

3. James Harden, G, Rockets

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2. Kevin Durant, F, Warriors

1. LeBron James, G/F

ALL COMPLAINTS ARE WELCOMED AND ENCOURAGED!!

Tuesday, April 24, 2018

2018 NFL Draft: Should the Jets Take Mayfield, Rosen, Darnold or Allen?

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As I was pulling up after a long day at work, I received a frantic phone call from a Senior Analyst of my "Hot Takes Team," quarterback expert Frank Valeriano.

"I'm mentally preparing myself for the Jets to take Baker Mayfield," he said.

"Listen, if the Jets want to draft A.J. McCarron, then so be it!" I barked.

"Noooo, that's not fair," Frank said, "I think Mayfield's skillset is a combination of Johnny Manziel, Deshaun Watson and Russell Wilson."

"I think that is a severe over-exaggeration," I snapped.

"I'm not saying he'll be as good as Watson or Wilson," Frank clarified, "I'm simply talking about the way he plays the position."

So is Mayfield the right guy for GM Mike Maccagnan, HC Todd Bowles and the hopeful Jets fans on the east coast? The only way to answer that question is to examine each candidate, one by one...

Option #1: Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma

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My loyal readers know that I'm not much of a college football fan. Growing up watching the Jets, Giants and Patriots in the northeast, I became accustomed to a certain level of defensive football. As we all know, when you match a top collegiate offense up against a lesser squad, we end up seeing painful scores like 63-0. And that just isn't fun. For the most part, defense is an illusion at the college level. 

So, writing this piece, I want to make it clear that I'm NOT a college football expert. I am, however, very experienced at analyzing quarterbacks. If you want to perform a background check before reading on, check out my last two QB rankings:


I was lucky enough to watch this season's Rose Bowl end-to-end. I watched VERY closely because I had a gut feeling the Jets would end up with Mayfield. In that wild, back-and-forth contest, Mayfield ended up 23-of-35 with 287 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT. Here's what I saw:

ACCURACY: Mayfield was very accurate, particularly in the first half. He seemed quite comfortable with the scripted portion of Oklahoma's offensive gameplan, which lead to good timing and quality, sustained drives. Mayfield had Oklahoma's offense in rhythm, and he drove them down the field with relative ease. 

RED FLAG #1: Even when the Sooners were cruising on their way to paydirt, Mayfield appeared to be GUIDING the ball into collegiate-level throwing windows. As I said to Frank on the phone earlier today, I wasn't impressed by a single throw that Mayfield made. To me, he seemed like a kid who had total command and control of the college game. We've seen situations like this before: Matt Leinart, Joey Harrington, David Carr, Danny Wuerffel and Tim Couch. I'm not saying Mayfield will be as bad as all or any of those guys; but way back when, I had similar concerns about their pure arm strength. They were all outstanding college football players; but when they released the ball, they didn't LOOK like NFL quarterbacks to me. You know? Like, when Matthew Stafford or Kirk Cousins let go of the ball it's just like...wow. You can feel the sizzle. And those aren't even top-5 guys. 

Mayfield is a smart kid and fearless competitor who settled into a comfort zone at the NCAA D-1 level. He was completely aware of the size of the throwing windows, which means his average arm strength was always disguised by easily completed passes. 

MOBILITY: Good. Should be fine at the NFL level, provided he develops pocket awareness of the speed of professional edge rushers. In addition, scrambling for first downs every once in awhile really keeps the opposing defense honest. We have seen Wilson, Cam Newton, Marcus Mariota and even Colin Kaepernick at their bests when defensive timing is thrown off by the mix-and-match of pass-and-run. Mayfield will need this, especially early on in his pro career. He'll also need to know when to slide. 

SIZE: I see him listed at 6'1", and I'm sure that's legit, but he looks awfully small out there. There were concerns about Manziel's height, and he was only an inch shorter. It's extremely difficult to find and develop a true franchise quarterback in Mayfield's size range. This is a major concern for me, as he attempts to deal with the big and beastly defenders in the NFL. 

JOHNNY FRO'S NFL COMPARISONS:

ACCURACY: Jared Goff

ARM STRENGTH: A.J. McCarron, Brian Hoyer & Case Keenum

SIZE: Tyrod Taylor

MOBILITY: Mariota & Ryan Tannehill

OVERALL: Dak Prescott

Option #2: Josh Rosen, UCLA

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So I caught Rosen against Sam Darnold and his USC Trojans on November 18, 2017. He was SUPER impressive, going 32-of-52 for 421 yards, 3 TDs and 1 INT. Darnold, on the other hand, finished with just 264 yards, 1 INT and zero TDs. It was an absolute no-contest. 

This game was a great barometer because everyone was watching. At the time, Darnold and Rosen were the consensus top two picks. That's when you see what a kid is made of. Rosen stepped up to the challenge without batting an eye, while Darnold looked smaller, weaker and less-NFL ready. 

ACCURACY: Rosen may not be as accurate at Mayfield, but because of his superior natural ability, Rosen takes riskier shots into tighter, NFL-like windows. His style of play at the collegiate level is more conducive to a transition to the big leagues. 

Mayfield is known as an "aggressive" quarterback, but that label is very much a part of his carefully-crafted persona. Baker likes to talk smack and back it up. He likes to win and rub it in. So he seems very aggressive, when in reality, on the field, he's a ball-control QB who is desperately trying to limit turnovers. And from a mindset perspective, obviously that's a good thing. HOWEVER, we're talking about the No. 3 overall selection in the NFL draft, here. Do you want a poor man's Alex Smith, or someone with the upside to single-handedly propel your franchise into a perennial Super Bowl contender?

I'm not saying that's necessarily Rosen. But he has more of a chance to be that than Mayfield. Rosen has the physical tools and gifts. Mayfield is small, weaker and inherently limited. 

MOBILITY: Rosen likes to stay in the pocket. He'll need to get the ball out quickly and/or defer to check-downs when necessary. If you watch the film of his performance against USC, you'll see that despite his impressive arm strength, Rosen has no issue with checking down. That shows his lack of on-field hubris, which is important.

SIZE: Listed at 6'4". He's at the high end of the NFL position average. 

JOHNNY FRO'S NFL COMPARISONS:

ACCURACY: Derek Carr (in earlier seasons)

ARM STRENGTH: Andrew Luck & Carson Wentz

SIZE: Eli Manning

MOBILITY: Eli Manning & Philip Rivers

OVERALL: Derek Carr

Option #3: Sam Darnold, USC

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Heading into the 2017-18 NFL season, I thought Darnold was the guy for my Jets. I had seen his uncanny ability to deliver in the clutch, and he made some really tight-window TD throws in his freshman year. 

But I don't know what happened as a sophomore. Maybe defenses got hip to him. Darnold somehow looked smaller, weaker and sometimes (shockingly) overmatched. If you watched him on the same field with Rosen, you'd think they didn't belong on that same field. Darnold throws a lot of lame ducks. His ball often seems to die in the air. He needs to bulk up and add pure velocity. 

Doesn't matter, anyway, because most reports and mock drafts have the Browns taking Darnold at No. 1. Good luck with that. Nothing ever works out for the Browns, anyway. 

JOHNNY FRO'S NFL COMPARISONS:

ACCURACY: Andy Dalton

ARM STRENGTH: Mitchell Trubisky, Blaine Gabbert & Matt Barkley

SIZE: Teddy Bridgewater & Ryan Fitzpatrick

MOBILITY: Alex Smith & Blake Bortles

OVERALL: Andy Dalton

Option #4: Josh Allen, Wyoming

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By this point, I think we all know that Allen has the biggest arm of this foursome. I'd say it's Allen, Rosen, Mayfield then Darnold in that order (though it's awfully close between the latter two). But there's absolutely no doubt that Allen is a project. Mayfield protects the ball and is an accurate thrower. Rosen is a physically gifted quarterback whose accuracy is far superior to Allen's. Darnold is inconsistent, but scouts believe he has the highest overall upside. 

Allen is just a big arm who occasionally completes a pass. He's not quite "Wild Thing" Ricky Vaughn, but he's about as far away from Drew Brees as Robert Griffin III. We've seen big, lumbering guys like this before. Allen's upside is Drew Bledsoe or Vinny Testaverde. The bottom, more likely end of his spectrum contains Paxton Lynch and Ryan Mallett. You can see why this is a slippery slope. 

JOHNNY FRO'S NFL COMPARISONS:

ACCURACY: Landry Jones

ARM STRENGTH: Joe Flacco & Jay Cutler

SIZE: Carson Palmer & Philip Rivers

MOBILITY: Sam Bradford & Tom Savage

OVERALL: Chad Henne

Part 5: What Would John Frascella Do?

I'd take Rosen without hesitating. I don't think he can be a Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers, but I DO believe he can be a Derek Carr, Matthew Stafford, Kirk Cousins or Andrew Luck. That's pretty damn good. I'll take that over Dak Prescott, Andy Dalton or Chad Henne any day of the week. 

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Part 6: What Will the Jets Do?

The Jets will take Mayfield. He's winning them over in interviews. Kid knows how to talk the talk. He reminds me of Sam Bradford that way. Bradford's been tricking everyone for years. He's just an overpaid, colossal bust.  

Let me say this...as an NFL prospect, most of the year, Mayfield was considered CLEARLY behind Darnold and Rosen. 95% of the scouts and analysts had Allen clearly ahead of Mayfield. Often, Mayfield was referenced in the "next group" with Lamar Jackson out of Louisville. 

So how the heck did he get to the point where he suddenly may get drafted before Rosen? What changed on the football FIELD? Anything?

No. Baker Mayfield interviews well. Honestly, I really don't care about interviews. I care about pure NFL talent. 

The Jets are going to get tricked into this pick. Don't tell me you're surprised...

They've never been hard to fool. 

Saturday, April 21, 2018

2018 NBA Playoffs: The Blazers, Timberwolves & Thunder Just Don't Get It.

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The faster you get the ball over the midcourt line, the more time you have to run an offensive set and get a quality, open look.

And yet there's Tom Thibodeau, distracting his players and barking out plays the second the ball gets inbounded. Jeff Teague, Jimmy Butler or Jamal Crawford are walking the ball up the court, getting the play from the sideline and showing zero urgency.

Have the Wolves ever looked around? Do you ever see the Warriors jogging lightly? The Rockets display urgency even when they're hammering a team by 30-40 points. What about quality organizations like the Celtics, Spurs and Raptors -- do they take plays off? Do they walk through their sets?

The Minnesota Timberwolves have EMBARRASSED themselves through two games of their soon-to-be short postseason run. Karl-Anthony Towns is complaining to the media that he's getting "triple-teamed" on every play? Oh, so Butler, Teague and/or Andrew Wiggins are wide open every play? Why aren't you piling up assists then, KAT?

Excuses, excuses, excuses. Shaquille O'Neal and Charles Barkley KILLED Towns on "Inside the NBA" the other night, and rightfully so. If you want to make an impact, show some urgency and demand a re-post. Kick it out, re-establish position and demand the ball. Then go to work. Shaq and Chuck know what the hell they are talking about.

Just pathetic. Don't even show up if your body language screams we have no chance to win this series. Everyone can see it. Wolves making millions and millions of dollars to quit. Sign me...I'll play hard all 48 minutes.

Despite my disappointment with the Wolves, they'll probably play a close one in Game 3. It's just the nature of the beast. Last I saw the Rockets were -5.5 and 87% of the public was on them. It's a classic "home dog" play; though I would never personally trust these Timberwolves.

We'll see if Minnesota can make it interesting down the stretch. They should really ride Wiggins more; but Thibs has no idea what he's doing. He has to go. The game has passed him by, like Phil Jackson, George Karl and Byron Scott. "Adapt or die," as Brad Pitt says in Moneyball. Thibs wastes athleticism in Towns, Wiggins, Butler, Teague and even Nemanja Bjelica, because they don't push the ball and they aren't being coached properly.

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Ultimately, it looks like these guys don't want to play for Tom Thibodeau. They look like caged birds, dying to get out and fly. Athletes wanna run. They want to have fun out there. Run-and-gun is fun, and it gives everyone on the team a rhythm. Thibs represents the Old Guard, and the Old Guard is long gone.

Part II: Why do the Blazers think it's 2001?

Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum are fantastic one-on-one players, and I really do think that Terry Stotts is a good NBA head coach. 

But damn, guys, run some friggin' plays. Mix in some ball and body movement. How about some backdoor cuts?

I say they think it's 2001 because these Blazers essentially treat Lillard and McCollum like Shaq and Kobe Bryant. Oh Shaq got a touch last play? Now let's give it to Kobe, and so on and so forth. 

The Blazers are getting shellacked by Alvin Gentry's Pelicans because they aren't playing REAL basketball. Portland's playing hero ball, and part of the problem is that the rest of its team isn't very good. They may need to take a look at their front office. They dumped an awful lot of now-dead money on Evan Turner. Yeesh. 

Lillard and McCollum look around and don't see much of a reason to pass. Their teammates seem to agree. Other than Al-Farouq Aminu and (sometimes) Jusuf Nurkic, none of the "others" really even try to make an impact. 

Meanwhile, on the other side, hellllllll yeah Pelicans! Very happy for them. Anthony Davis is an absolute freak from another planet; Jrue Holiday is playing with bravado and toughness, a deadly combination; Nikola Mirotic is lighting it up from the perimeter and Rajon Rondo is impacting the game in every possible way. 

I'd like to take a moment to apologize to Rajon for calling him a "pathetic loser" during the 2015 NBA Playoffs. Clearly, the Mavs were just a bad fit for him. Totally different story with Gentry and the Pels. 

And I hate to say it, but this club is definitely better without DeMarcus "Boogie" Cousins. Boogie is a top-20 all-around player in the world, but Mirotic gives the Pelicans the floor spacing they need. What a money trade that was. With Mirotic keeping perimeter defenders honest, the driving lanes open up for Holiday and Rondo. Not to mention -- most importantly -- the clean pick-and-roll opportunities with AD. 

I'd like to see the Pels bury the Blazers in Game 4. No need for this lopsided series to continue. 

Part III: Billy Donovan doesn't coach. At all.

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You have a great chance to go up 2-0 against a very tough Utah Jazz team. All you need to do is run some quality sets and get good looks. It's really not that hard. The real teams do it. 

Instead, Billy Donovan lets Russell Westbrook, Paul George and Carmelo Anthony run wild. Westbrook clearly knows how to pad his stats, but he doesn't know how to close a close game. With his athleticism and ability to penetrate, PG, Melo and Steven Adams should be getting high-percentage looks down the stretch. 

Instead, the Thunder just seem like they are panicking all the time. That's a reflection of Westbrook's low IQ and Donovan's lack of control over his team. Like Thibs, he's another one who needs to go. OKC plays exactly the same way it did under Scott "The Robot" Brooks. Brooks may have been saying "guys, we have to score points" and "guys, we have to get stops" all the time, but whatever Donovan is doing isn't much different. 

On the other bench, Quin Snyder has emerged as one of the elite basketball coaches in the world. For the second-straight season, the Jazz outperformed the talent level of their roster. That's a direct testament to the coach, as well as the determination and hard work of his players. These Jazz are grinders. They run hard. They cut hard. They move the ball. They want to knock off these big names from OKC. 

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Ricky Rubio is shooting the ball better than ever before; Rudy Gobert, as always, is an eraser in the paint; Derrick Favors is playing pretty well and Donovan Mitchell is an ABSOLUTE STUD. What a pick! I just texted my Hot Takes Team the following:

"Just thinking about how painful it is that the Knicks took Frank Ntilikina over Donovan Mitchell."

Everyone cried. 

In the end, I'm rooting for the Rockets, Pelicans and Jazz in these series. PUSH the ball up the court. SPRINT through your sets. PASS the ball to open teammates. KNOCK DOWN good looks. 

Play real basketball. And I'll root for you every time.