Friday, September 22, 2017

Demolishing ESPN's NBA Rank, Part II: Covington Is Better Than Melo, Booker & Wiggins???

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When ESPN released this year's "NBARank," my good friend and sports junkie Mark "HD" Rue said, "They do this on purpose."

And what exactly did he mean by that?

Well, let's just say that some of these rankings are meant to get a rise out of people. Despite knowing that, I still have the intense desire to right some of ESPN's egregious wrongs. If you missed Volume I of my systematic destruction, feel free to check it out here. Let's get right into Volume II...

1. Tristan Thompson is #72???

There was a time when I respected Tristan Thompson as an NBA player. When he was younger, hungrier and actually tried, I thought he was a very useful role player. Once he held out and signed that 5-year, $82 million contract, everything changed. He's been doggin' it ever since, AND he's dating a Kardashian. That's the NBA kiss of death

Tristan averaged just 8.1 PPG last season; not to mention the fact that he disappeared from the face of the earth in the NBA Finals. He simply isn't a hungry player anymore. Again, you can check out Volume I of my attack on ESPN's NBARank to see some players I rank significantly higher than him. Here are a handful of quick examples of better, more impactful players: Dennis Schroder, Lou Williams, Dion Waiters and Jeff Teague

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Johnny Fro's Rankings: Teague (54) and Thompson (unranked). 

2. Danny Green (#59) is better than Devin Booker (#60) and Carmelo Anthony (#64)?

This is the central problem I always seem to have with these competing lists: ESPN, Sports Illustrated and the like consistently rank replaceable role players above offensive focal points. 

Danny Green has hit a helluva lot of clutch playoff threes for the Spurs, and I wholeheartedly respect him for that. But here's the reality of the situation: Carmelo Anthony has scored 62 points in an NBA game. Devin Booker has scored SEVENTY points in an NBA game. 

Plain and simple, does Green have that kind of potential? Does his game have that kind of scoring versatility and explosiveness?

Of course it doesn't. The reality is that Booker and Melo can carry your offense if needed, while Green is a 3-and-D, floor spacing role player. Electric scorers and role players aren't on the same level. 

Johnny Fro's Rankings: Melo (34), Booker (44) and Green (unranked). 

3. Malcolm Brogdon (#56) is better than Andrew Wiggins (#57)?

I'm not sure people realize that Andrew Wiggins is one of the premier scorers in the NBA. He's still only 22 years old, and has improved his PPG from 16.9 to 20.7 to 23.6 in just three seasons in the league. He can shoot, drive, finish and draw fouls. He's a complete scorer with an arrow pointing up. 

Brogdon, on the other hand, is a nice little sparkplug of a player. He gave Jason Kidd's Bucks a nice lift in his rookie season, but we all know the only reason he won the Rookie of the Year is because Joel Embiid (20.2 points, 7.8 rebounds and 2.5 blocks per game) only took the court in 31 games. Now, I appreciate the fact that Brogdon played in 75 -- durability is always an invaluable commodity -- but the kid averaged 10.2 points and 4.2 assists per game. He didn't set the world on fire. 

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Wiggins clearly has the potential to be a 25-30 PPG scorer, whereas Brogdon is a high-energy role player at the point guard position. We are talking about two different stratospheres, here. 

Johnny Fro's Rankings: Wiggins (32) and Brogdon (91). 

4. Robert Covington is #55???!!!

Come on, people! Seriously?? What is it with this newfound "expert" obsession with the Philadelphia 76ers?

Sure they have plus talent in Embiid, Ben Simmons and Markelle Fultz...but have Simmons or Fultz even played an NBA game yet? And as you can see, I don't include Covington in this "plus" talent pool. 

ROBERT COVINGTON IS BETTER THAN ANDREW WIGGINS, DEVIN BOOKER AND CARMELO ANTHONY???

Clearly, I'm having difficulty getting over this ranking. Covington is a good defender who hits threes. He's a garden variety 3-and-D guy, by today's NBA standards. He averaged 12.9 PPG last season while shooting a pathetic 39.9% from the floor! I can't. My blood pressure is escalating to an unsafe level. Why must you do this to me, ESPN??!

And don't get me wrong, every NBA team needs solid role players. Guys who know their limitations and will enhance the production of their team's go-to guys. But, here's the bit of logic missing from ESPN and SI's ranking systems: The role players are useless without the go-to guys! Useless. If you had a team of 5 limited role players, you'd be the lowest scoring team in the NBA and you might be competitive against a top D-League team. 

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That's just the nature of basketball -- you need talented penetrators and scorers for your club to have any success. Covington and Patrick Patterson can stand in the corner all they want; their occasional threes are meaningless without guys like Wiggins, Booker and Melo facilitating offense throughout the flow of a long, 48-minute NBA game. Of course the superior versions of guys like Wiggins, Booker and Melo are LeBron James, Russell Westbrook and James Harden; but you get the idea. 

Johnny Fro's Ranking: Covington (unranked, clearly)

All right, I gotta call it quits on this one before I get too worked up. Look out for Volume III of my attack in the coming weeks. 

Demolishing ESPN's NBA Rank, Part I: Patrick Patterson is Better Than Dirk Nowitzki?

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Lonzo Ball is already better than Carmelo Anthony?

Well, according to ESPN's latest #NBArank, apparently he is. They can lean on semantics to cover themselves -- "We asked our expert panel, 'which player will be better in 2017-18?'" -- but when you're predicting the future, it's awfully hard to be held accountable. That's my job. It's time to hold ESPN's "experts" accountable for these head-scratching rankings. 

They roll out their rankings in segments, so this edition will be dedicated to players 100 down to 76. 

1. Derrick Favors (#94) is better than Dennis Schroder (#96), Dirk Nowitzki (#97) and Dion Waiters (#98)?

I had the same problem with Favors prior to last season, when Sports Illustrated ranked him 28th in the world, ahead of DeMar DeRozan, Isaiah Thomas and Kemba Walker, among other legitimate offensive studs. 

So what is it about Favors that attracts these major outlets like ESPN and Sports Illustrated? 

Well, last season he only managed to make it onto the court for 50 games. The year before he only played 62. So obviously, it's not his durability. On the stat sheet, he averaged a whopping 9.5 points per game in 2016-17. 

I mean, don't get me wrong, Favors is a decent two-way role player, but Schroder is the alpha dog of his team. The latter is the Hawks' go-to guy, with PPG improving from 10.0 to 11.0 to 17.9 over the last three seasons. Schroder's FG% also improved from 42.1 to 45.1.

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Then we have Nowitzki, who is undoubtedly a first-ballot Hall of Famer. There's no question that his incredible career is nearing its end, but he still averaged 14.2 PPG to Favors' 9.5, while connecting on roughly 38 percent of his three-point attempts. As we know, Favors doesn't offer that kind of range offensively.

Waiters has always been one of the most gifted one-on-one scorers in the NBA. He's a bit of a wild man, and past organizations have found that off-putting, but Pat Riley embraced him from the get go. When you allow a talented player to settle into his comfort zone, that's when you get a return like this: 15.8 PPG (2nd best of Waiters' career), 4.3 APG (best), 3.3 RPG (best), 39.5% on threes (best) and 42.4% from the floor (2nd best).

Waiters is set for another highly-productive year, while Favors is nothing but a glorified role player.

Johnny Fro's Rankings: Schroder (51), Waiters (68), Nowitzki (77) and Favors (unranked). 


2. Gorgui Dieng (#77) is better than Markieff Morris (#79), Lou Williams (#81) and Greg Monroe (#82)?

I felt Gorgui Dieng was an underrated prospect heading into the 2013 NBA Draft -- he found a nice role within Rick Pitino's pro-caliber offense at Louisville, knocking down clutch mid-range jumpers, playing smart, conservative offensive basketball and making an impact as a rebounder and rim protector. I thought he showed nice polish for a player who was often referred to as "raw." 

He ended up going 21st to the Jazz -- before being dealt to the Wolves -- after limited players like Anthony Bennett, Shane Larkin and Tony Snell. It's funny...I thought Dieng was a far superior player to Bennett, and the latter somehow ended up going 1st overall. Still a shocking head-scratcher to this day. 

But now, in the NBA, Dieng is pretty much what he was then -- a nice role player. Last season he averaged 10 points, 7.9 rebounds, 1.9 assists and 1.2 blocks per game. If you look closely at the numbers, you will see the following players in the same category as Gorgui: Trevor Booker, Cody Zeller, Mason Plumlee, Robin Lopez, Kenneth Faried, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Nene Hilario

And that's pretty much his company, you know? The stats/roles don't lie there. Gorgui is a nice role player, but there are a bunch of guys just like him. He isn't a rare commodity in high demand. 

Markieff Morris, on the other hand, averaged more PPG than Gorgui (14), while shooting 83.7% from the free throw line and drilling 71 three-pointers. Gorgui only hit 16 threes, and we know the league is all about stretch fours these days. Markieff has always been a more naturally gifted player than Gorgui. If not for his disciplinary issues, he was well on his way to becoming an 18-20 point scorer and offensive focal point for the Suns. You don't even have that option with Dieng. He's limited by nature. 

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"Sweet Lou" Williams is a gifted offensive performer like the aforementioned Waiters. Lou Will finished 3rd in the Sixth Man of the Year Award voting last season, after winning that very same award in 2014-15. He's just one of those guys you can give the ball to, and ask him to generate offense from scratch. Last year he had games where he scored 40, 38, 35 and 31 (twice). A talent like that is much harder to find than Dieng. 

Monroe is a fellow big who falls somewhere near Dieng's category, but the former has averaged over 15 PPG in this league 5 times. He's a far more polished scorer than Gorgui, while averaging 8.7 RPG for his career. Dieng is the better defender, but as you can see, I think high-quality offense is far more difficult to find. 

Johnny Fro's Rankings: Williams (64), Morris (70), Monroe (72) and Dieng (unranked). 

3. Patrick Patterson is #76? WTF???

I mean, I don't have to list Schroder, Waiters, Williams, etc. again. You get the idea. Patrick Patterson has no business being ahead of any of those guys. 

Patrick Patterson has been in the NBA for 9 seasons. His CAREER HIGH is 10.4 points per game. The guy averages 7.9 PPG for his career! Come on, man!

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He's 6'9", 230 pounds and averages 4.7 rebounds per game for his career! Come on. Forget the stats. Just watch the guy play. He's a role player who stands in the corner shooting and occasionally making threes. That's essentially the extent of his "game." I mean, this ranking really pisses me off. It shows an utter lack of awareness on the part of ESPN's "experts."

I think preseason lists like these tend to overemphasize players who have changed teams. This is a very clear case of that phenomenon. 

Johnny Fro's Ranking: Patterson (unranked, obviously)

All right, please tune in next time for players 75 down to 51. Should be coming in the next couple weeks. 

Thursday, September 21, 2017

Ranking NFL Fantasy Defenses: Are the Ravens Back to Their Dominant Ways of Old?

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Let's take a look at my Week 3 recommendations and rankings for NFL fantasy defenses. Keep in mind, the order is based specifically upon the match-ups for this week; these are not season-long power rankings. 

32. Saints @ Panthers - Current Point Total (Special Teams NOT included): -2...yes, that's a negative. 

The Saints have only been playing one side of the ball for many years now, but they've been particularly awful through two games this season. There are only two bright spots this week: They're not playing on turf -- where opposing skill players are simply too fast and precise for them to defend -- and Cam Newton looked old and beat up in an ugly win over the Bills. 

31. Bears v. Steelers - Current Point Total: 6

The Steelers generally perform well below expectations on the road, but Le'Veon Bell hasn't had his breakout game yet. I think it comes this week. Expect Antonio Brown to rebound after last week, as well. 

30. Texans @ Patriots - Current Point Total: 9

They are 13.5-point underdogs at Gillette Stadium, and rookie Deshaun Watson's expected turnovers against Bill Belichick and Matt Patricia's sophisticated defensive schemes will put Tom Brady and company in prime position to light up the scoreboard. 

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29. Jets v. Dolphins - Current Point Total: 0

Todd Bowles' once-vaunted defensive line has been carved to pieces through two unsurprising losses to the Bills and Raiders. The only potential positives for the Jets are that they will likely cover the spread -- which means the score remain close -- and Jay Cutler can always gift a couple turnovers to you. 

28. Bengals @ Packers - Current Point Total: 11

The Bengals are obviously hoping both Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb will sit out with injuries. It appears that only the latter will oblige them. I expect this game to be a bit of a shootout. 

27. Chargers v. Chiefs - Current Point Total: 11

26. Giants @ Eagles - Current Point Total: 7

25. Raiders @ Redskins - Current Point Total: 11

24. Packers v. Bengals - Current Point Total: 11

Andy Dalton and A.J. Green are absolutely desperate for a victory. This could actually be a make-or-break game for Dalton's enigmatic career. 

23. Redskins v. Raiders - Current Point Total: 19

22. Dolphins @ Jets - Current Point Total: 2 (played only one game)

Cameron Wake, Ndamukong Suh and company are likely the most overrated fantasy defense this week. Yes, there's a chance the Jets will go winless for the season. Yes, their offense is anemic. However, Josh McCown's timing has been surprisingly sharp out of the gate, and the Jets' offensive conservatism doesn't lend itself to a boatload of turnovers. Ultimately, we want explosive plays and turnovers from our fantasy defenses, and Miami's upside isn't as high as conformers think this week. 

21. Cowboys @ Cardinals - Current Point Total: 14

Carson Palmer is like Cutler -- he can always drop some turnovers in your lap. The Cowboys D looked like paper mache against Trevor Siemian's surprising Broncos, but Palmer is the great equalizer. When he's suffering through a bad spell, both mentally and physically, he can boost the point total of any fantasy defense. 

20. Browns @ Colts - Current Point Total: 9

19. Titans v. Seahawks - Current Point Total: 11

Tennessee's defensive personnel may have become a tad overrated, but Seattle's offensive line is downright embarrassing. I don't love the play; but you're not dead in the water if you need to use the Titans. 

18. Colts v. Browns - Current Point Total: 9

DeShone Kizer is a rookie QB dealing with debilitating migraines. Recipe for disaster. 

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17. Chiefs @ Chargers - Current Point Total: 14

Just not the same defense without Eric Berry and Tamba Hali

16. Cardinals v. Cowboys - Current Point Total: 18

15. 49ers v. Rams - Current Point Total: 11

Jared Goff is still young and green enough to implode in any given week. Thursday night games are particularly ugly from an offensive standpoint. This game will likely be near impossible to watch. 

14. Lions v. Falcons - Current Point Total: 27 (tied for 3rd best)

Ziggy Ansah, Haloti Ngata, Darius Slay and Glover Quin are all superb defensive players, but Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman scare me every week of the season. Atlanta has too much firepower and determination to place blind faith in your fantasy defense. I'd look elsewhere. 

13. Falcons @ Lions - Current Point Total: 18

Was absolutely blown away by their defensive performance against Aaron Rodgers and his Packers. Of course both Nelson and Cobb got injured during the game, and GB was missing two extremely valuable offensive linemen, but Atlanta's defensive speed was simply mind-numbing. The great Desmond Trufant came away with an electric interception, while Brooks Reed and Adrian Clayborn had Rodgers running for his life. The Vic Beasley injury is devastating, though. 

12. Seahawks @ Titans - Current Point Total: 15

11. Panthers v. Saints - Current Point Total: 25

In a vacuum, the Panthers boast one of the top 5 or 6 fantasy defenses. I'm simply dropping them to 11 here because the Saints are a high-powered offense in desperate need of a win. Drew Brees knows he has to come out guns blazin'. 

10. Patriots v. Texans - Current Point Total: 3

As I said before: Belichick against a rookie QB. Lamb to slaughter. 

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9. Vikings v. Bucs - Current Point Total: 4

Everson GriffenLinval JosephAnthony BarrXavier Rhodes and company are downright SCARY at home. Mike Zimmer's vicious D opened up against the Saints and Steelers, making the Vikings an excellent buy-low candidate this week. The only reasons I don't have Minnesota in my top 5 or 6 are because both Barr and Rhodes are questionable. Keep an eye on their statuses; particularly Rhodes, who is one of the top 2 or 3 corners in the game. 

8. Bills v. Broncos - Current Point Total: 19

Arguably the sneakiest, high-quality play of the week. Everyone is high on the Broncos after their Week 2 drubbing of the Cowboys, so the Bills would appear to be a walk in the park. Appearances, of course, can be deceiving. The Bills always find ways to force turnovers at home, and the Broncos might be riding carelessly on their high horses. Spice up your lineup with a little Buffalo sauce. 

7. Jaguars v. Ravens - Current Point Total: 27 (T-3rd)

This game has LETDOWN written all over it for Joe Flacco and the Ravens. Baltimore is currently 2-0 and exceeding early expectations, and Flacco is the type of QB who has been known to underperform in match-ups against "lesser" teams. The Jacksonville D we'll be seeing is the one that sparked fantasy lineups in Week 1. 

6. Broncos @ Bills - Current Point Total: 18

The Bills' run-heavy offense is too vanilla to be effective against Denver's elite D. This is definitely going to be an ugly, low-scoring affair. 

5. Rams @ 49ers - Current Point Total: 30 (2nd)

4. Eagles v. Giants - Current Point Total: 26

The Eagles always get pressure and we know how awful Eli Manning, Brandon Marshall, Paul Perkins and the Giants' offensive line have been. Seems like a perfect storm for Philly's fantasy D. 

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3. Bucs @ Vikings - Current Point Total: 19 (played only one game)

Sure it was against the lowly Bears, but the Bucs clearly established their identity in Week 2 (which for them, was actually Week 1). Dirk Koetter is making a concerted effort to limit Jameis Winston's costly turnovers in the redzone, which means Gerald McCoy, Chris Baker, Robert Ayers, Lavonte David, Kwon Alexander (Q) and Brent Grimes are being asked to make Tampa's D its primary source of victories. If Sam Bradford plays he'll be less than 100 percent, and the brazen Bucs will most certainly smell blood in the water. 

2. Steelers @ Bears - Current Point Total: 26

Yeah, I mean, if you caught any of the Bears' offensive performance last week, I don't really have to add anything to that. If you didn't see it -- well -- they suck. 

1. Ravens @ Jaguars - Current Point Total: 42 (1st)

Terrell Suggs already has 3 sacks. C.J. Mosley has 18 tackles, and Lardarius Webb and Brandon Carr are leading the NFL with 2 interceptions apiece. John Harbaugh has this group believing that its collective mojo is back. Fittingly enough, what's the best way to keep defensive mojo going? Suit up for a game against Blake Bortles. Lock in the Ravens as your #1 fantasy defense this week. 

As always, my sincerest thanks for reading. If you need specific fantasy advice, feel free to tweet me @RedSoxAuthor. Good luck in Week 3!