After jumping out to a four-run lead last night in Seattle, Rafael Montero and the Mets stumbled into a 5-4 deficit when the enigmatic right-handed starter lost command of the strikezone. Montero, who has always combined decent stuff with a highly questionable mental makeup, continues to take one step forward then two steps back.
On the bright side, Michael Conforto -- in a triumphant return to his home state of Washington -- laced his second home run of the game to tie it at 5 in the 8th. Neil Walker followed with what turned out to be the game-winning RBI single to left, and Curtis Granderson provided insurance with an RBI single down the right field line. In the 9th, Addison Reed nailed down his 19th save of the season.
So the Mets, who are 7-3 in their last 10 games, are now nine games back of the Rockies for the second National League Wild Card spot. The ultimate question is...after playing outstanding second-half ball the past two seasons, can the Mets make another second-half run this year?
It's OBVIOUSLY a longshot, but let's dissect this question, one consideration at a time:
Roster Moves: Are We Buying or Selling?
As some of you may recall, I tore Duda to shreds earlier this season because he's the master of padding his stats when his team is up or down by 10 runs. Never gets a hit in a tight game with runners on. How about having 18 homers with only 38 RBI? That tells the entire story, doesn't it? Doesn't drive in runs with anything other than meaningless solo shots. He has a .271 batting average with the bases empty, and .212 with runners on. Last year he hit .206 with runners in scoring position; .212 the year before that. Have fun with that, Tampa fans.
As for Smith, scouting reports indicate that he's a hard-thrower with control issues. Statistically, he's whiffed 28 batters in 28.2 innings at A+ Charlotte this year, and 12 in 11.2 innings at Lakeland. He sounds a little bit like a younger version of Daniel Bard, who the Mets signed earlier this year. It's clear that Sandy Alderson and John Ricco are ultimately trying to add velocity to their bullpen, as they are probably tired of Fernando Salas' flat 90 mph fastballs over the center of the plate.
The verdict: Addition by subtraction. In a very small sample size, the Mets have averaged 6 runs per game without Duda, while scoring just 3 in his final game in the lineup. Removing a rally killer can do wonders for an offense. I don't mind the addition of Smith, but he isn't ready to contribute to the big league club, yet.
So, maybe Ricardo and Gonzalez will both translate into something of value in the future, but in the meantime, Ramos improves the Mets' bullpen for the rest of this and next year. His fastball velocity has steadily declined since entering the majors in 2012, but he's whiffed 47 in just 39.2 innings this season, after 73 in 64 last year. His put-away stuff is still there.
The verdict: I don't love the deal long-term, but Ramos will help if we want to make a surprise run the remainder of this season.
Rosario is widely considered one of the best all-around prospects in baseball, and it's a travesty that shitty Reyes has been playing over him all year. But hey, that's just Mets baseball, isn't it? If you want to have a good laugh, listen to former MLB GM Jim Bowden trash Alderson for this exact reason.
The verdict: Duh. The only thing I hate more than Reyes is the New England Patriots' organization.
4. Jacob deGrom, Seth Lugo, Reed, Rene Rivera, Asdrubal Cabrera, Jay Bruce and Granderson have all popped up in trade rumors. Granderson MUST go. deGrom and Bruce MUST stay. The others are inconsequential.
Going forward, I want to keep the productive Conforto, Yoenis Cespedes, Bruce outfield intact, but I'm not sure Alderson and Ricco feel the same. They probably want to dismiss Bruce because he's played too well. They wanna go all Daniel Murphy on us.
The Competition
2. The Diamondbacks haven't been to the postseason since 2011. On the flip side, these droughts have to end eventually.
3. The Brewers' high-octane offense scares me. Hoping they win the division and the Cubs end up calling it a "lost year."
4. The Cardinals and Pirates always seem to be in contention. They'll be lurking.
The Injuries
2. Extremely difficult to hold small leads in big games without your proven closer, Jeurys Familia. He's often unfairly criticized by shortsighted Mets fans, but the guy saved 51 last season and 43 the year before. He finds ways to get it done.
3. Injuries to Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler and Robert Gsellman have forced Montero and Chris Flexen into roles. On the bright side, Wheeler sucks anyway. Montero will probably end up being just as good, if not better. I still think Harvey can be a decent No. 4 starter in the bigs, while Gsellman should move to a one-inning relief role, permanently.
The Final Word
The Mets lineup is eventually going to boast Conforto, Bruce, Cespedes, Walker, Rosario and Wilmer Flores at the same time. This could have been possible from the start, but Alderson and Terry Collins were insistent upon bums like Duda, Granderson and Reyes. (Don't get me wrong -- I like Grandy, he's a super nice guy, but he can't play anymore.) In the NL, this club is already 3rd in homers and 6th in runs, so any stretch run will be dependent on mashing the ball, especially considering the injuries to Syndergaard, Familia and Harvey.
In the end, I give us a 5% chance of reaching the playoffs. That may be more than most.
But hey, without Lucas Duda, anything can happen...right?
