Monday, September 12, 2022

NFL Week 1 "I Told You Ya Sos" - Are You SURE About Breece Hall?

 

Photo Credit: The Jet Press

About a month ago, I had a great idea for a sports app where we "keep score" of intense sports debates. Without keeping score, everybody just looks back and thinks they were right all the time. But... my friends and business partners didn't seem to care much, so I tossed that idea in the trash. 

Now... well... I'll just take some victory laps here on my blog! 

1. Michael Carter vs. Breece Hall. Source tweet of mine, from all the way back on May 1! 

Michael Carter is a pro's pro - I've been saying that all along. People were coming at me, though: 

Freakzilla
May 1, 2022
@Freakzilla316Follow
Replying to @LegendSports7
Breece Hall is way better than Carter. The Jets aren’t going to spend a 2nd round pick on a RB if they thought Carter was the guy.


John Frascella (Football)
@LegendSports7
Replying to
@Freakzilla316
I don't see anything in my tweet that said Carter is "The Guy". I just said people are getting overexcited about Hall. You will see in ADP over these next 3-4 weeks.

Freakzilla
May 1, 2022
@Freakzilla316Follow
Replying to @LegendSports7
Hall is THAT good as a prospect. He’s WAY better than Carter.

John Frascella (Football)
@LegendSports7
I didn't say Carter was better than Hall, either. You didn't read what I wrote. What's the point of having interaction, then? Lol

Freakzilla
May 1, 2022
@Freakzilla316Follow
Replying to @LegendSports7
Where did I say that you said Carter is better? It’s you not reading the posts. I read what you said and I disagree. Carter is going to be the clear backup. It’s not going to be close to a 1a/1b situation by the end of the season.

So of course we are only 1 week into the season... but if we don't live in The Moment, when do we live? Let's look at some of these comments in the debate:

"Breece Hall is way better than Carter."

Week 1 results on this:

Michael Carter: 10 carries
Breece Hall: 6 carries

Michael Carter: 60 rushing yards
Breece Hall: 23 rushing yards

Michael Carter: 6 yards per carry
Breece Hall: 3.8 yards per carry

Michael Carter: 9 targets
Breece Hall: 10 targets

Michael Carter: 7 receptions
Breece Hall: 6 receptions

Michael Carter: 40 receiving yards
Breece Hall: 38 receiving yards

Michael Carter: 5.7 yards per reception
Breece Hall: 6.3 yards per reception

Michael Carter: 0 fumbles lost
Breece Hall: 1 fumble lost

So... Carter was the leader in 6 out of 8 categories. Now, to be fair, he did drop an easy touchdown pass (Hall also had a brutal drop). But still, I certainly don't see "way better" in Hall's favor, as my opponent stated here.

"Carter is going to be the clear backup. It’s not going to be close"

Well... Carter started and Hall was the "clear backup" lol. Score another one for me.

2. Joe Flacco vs. Chris Streveler and Mike White. Source tweet of mine from August 29:

And then I got this reply from a Giants fan, no less: 

Bryan Taylor
@BryanBleedsBlue

I cant tell if you're being serious or not lol. The guy went against 4th string players every game. You wanna play him over a SB mvp?

To which I obviously replied: 


John Frascella (Football)
@LegendSports7
Replying to
@BryanBleedsBlue
and
@nyjets

Of course I’m serious! Trent Dilfer won a Super Bowl, should we bring him back? Brad Johnson? Flacco’s Super Bowl came when Colin Kaepernick was still one of the best players in the NFL. Would you call this a “timely” comment of yours? Streveler is 27 and Flacco is 37, no debate. 

Let's take a look at my opponent's comment here: 

"You wanna play him over a SB mvp?"

Well, yes, I do wanna play Streveler over Flacco! Flacco in the opener: 

-22 incomplete passes! 

-74.6 qb rating

-1 interception and 1 garbage time td 

-sacked 3 times and hit 11 times - looked to be about 50 years old out there 

Also, the Jets only had 3 total points at the half, and they were down 24-3 after 3 full quarters. Just plain embarrassing. My point isn't that Streveler would be some godsend, just that there's literally no value in playing washed up Flacco when you have younger, able-bodied quarterbacks available on your roster. 

3. Keeping Joe Flacco and starting him vs. cutting him altogether: 

I said, PRIOR to Week 1: Cut Flacco and start either Streveler or White. 

Text from Frankie V: "John, if Douglas cut Flacco it would hurt his reputation with veterans in the league."

I think, after seeing that putrid Week 1 performance, Douglas hurt his reputation around the league by PLAYING Flacco. Yet another embarrassment for the Jets' organization, and I was right. 

4. Zach Wilson wasn't progressing as well as Robert Saleh suggested. 

Just last week, clown head coach Robert Saleh said Zach Wilson could possibly play in Week 1. Back on August 26th - before him! - I said this: 


Shortly after Saleh's mind-boggling comments, we got this: 

 

So yeah, I was right and the Jets' head coach was wildly off base.  

5. My general assessment of RB Michael Carter. My source tweet from August 26: 



To which I got these forceful replies: 

Dion MacMeekin
@dmac31145
Replying to
@LegendSports7
Game tape. I mean that's like asking why dud people think zeke and Barkley were 1st round fantasy picks their rookie seasons. Or why JT was getting drafted immediately before mack.  

Game tape, measurable, workout metrics, stats, etc...

CallUpOswaldPeraza
@Ny_Jets__
Replying to
@LegendSports7

Because the numbers literally say he will be. 99% chance 


John Frascella (Football)
@LegendSports7
His numbers in the NFL? What numbers are those?

You see what I mean? What does college game tape have to do with the NFL? Carter, once again, looked like a seasoned pro at the NFL level in Week 1. Hall looked raw, unsure and a long way off.

6. I had the Buffalo Bills winning the AFC, preseason.

See full article, here:

Sure, it's only 1 week, but the Bills looked pretty f'n dominant against the reigning champs of the world. Now, they are already -10.5 against the Titans - still a solid, respectable team - in Week 2. Buffalo may be on their way to dominating the entire league.

7. I had the Buffalo Bills winning the Super Bowl, preseason.

See full article, here:

Again, it's only 1 week - but they certainly do look like the early favorites to win it all!

8. I TOLD people to be worried about Matthew Stafford. Source tweet here:

To which, somebody came at me: 

SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS
@YourCousinMarty
Replying to
@LegendSports7

Stafford is fine lol already been confirmed. Rams are better than GB 😂

John Frascella (Football)
@LegendSports7

profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2022/08/04/rep “Bad” elbow tendinitis doesn’t go away in 1 month… I had to deal with it as a Pitcher for 3 consecutive seasons. Very painful, very annoying, very relentless.

SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS
@YourCousinMarty

You realize he’s back to full participation right? Lol dude sent me a month old article 😂😂 he legit threw 70 passes last week with no issue. And he’s dealt with this every year. He’ll be fine.

John Frascella (Football)
@LegendSports7

I like Stafford, he’s a battler and he’ll always battle… like I said, a month ago means nothing with tendinitis… it comes and goes over time, cold weather brings out the worst of it

SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS
@YourCousinMarty
Clearly didnt stop em from winning a sb last year. Added A Rob. Defense also improved and got healthy.

John Frascella (Football)
@LegendSports7
I think the Rams are a better all-around team, but it’s nearly impossible to repeat in today’s NFL… also, asking a lot to have Stafford to play that many high-leverage games again

Having looked at all that, here's the game 1 reality for Matthew Stafford:

-240 yards
-only 1 td
-THREE interceptions
-putrid 63.1 qb rating
-only 10 total points for the Rams

So yeah... score another Week 1 winner for me.

9. Some people really thought Michael Thomas was finished. I didn't.

Text from Jimmy H: "Legend with zero playable WRs thru 5 rounds (I had already selected Michael Thomas in my 14-team league)... He hasn't been healthy in 2 years and no more Drew Brees...He's long past setting records."

And the reality? Michael Thomas in Week 1:

-8 targets
-5 receptions
-2 HUGE touchdowns leading to the Saints' comeback victory
-57 yards

And he's still in the process of shaking off some of that rust!

10. A lot of people HATED my Week 1 bet of the Falcons +5.

Text from Frankie V: "Falcons? Why, they suck... Mariota sucks John, what are you saying... If he was good why hasn't he had a starting job in 3 years?"

My replies: "He has 4 seasons over a 91 qb rating or better... hes not bad at all, Matt Ryan is over the hill anyway... plus I'm just talking about Week 1... I didn't say hes good, I said he's not bad and Ryan is washed... I think Mariota could be like qb18 to 25."

The reality from Week 1:

Saints: 27
Falcons: 26 - I covered by 4 points, easily - Falcons were winning most of the game

Marcus Mariota:

287 total yards
0 interceptions
1 rushing touchdown
QB rating? Ranked 20th in the league, as I predicted.

And... Matt Ryan couldn't beat the Texans as one of the biggest betting favorites on the Week 1 board.

11. I've been saying all along... David Montgomery is one of the worst "RB1s" in the league. Source tweet:

Which led to this exchange:

James TJ
@J_T_J16
Replying to
@LegendSports7

Poor take.

John Frascella (Football)
@LegendSports7
Replying to
@J_T_J16
(Fantasy projection for this season.)

James TJ
@J_T_J16
Replying to
@LegendSports7
Thought you meant in general my bad. I still disagree for this year though tbh

Cut to Week 1, David Montgomery:

- 17 carries
- 26 yards
- 1.5 yards per carry
- 0 touchdowns

Compare that to Khalil Herbert, whom I had here:

John Frascella (Football)
@LegendSports7
Fantasy RBs looking underrated right now: Antonio Gibson Josh Jacobs Clyde Edwards-Helaire Devin Singletary Rashaad Penny Cordarrelle Patterson Michael Carter Rhamondre Stevenson James Robinson Khalil Herbert

Khalil Herbert Week 1:

- 9 carries
- 45 yards
- 5.0 yards per carry
- 1 touchdown

Another Week 1 "call" for me.

12. I was VERY worried about Joe Burrow's health and comfort for Week 1.

See here, many times:

John Frascella (Football)
@LegendSports7
Matt Stafford’s tendonitis worries me, and Joe Burrow’s appendectomy worries me. I can’t help it. I just can’t seem to go all-in on either star QB this fantasy season.

John Frascella (Football)
@LegendSports7
Replying to
@Kyle_TheUpside
Appendectomy. What if he takes some shots in that region? Gonna be uncomfortable throwing vs middle pass rush

John Frascella (Football)
@LegendSports7
Replying to
@illbill1000
Appendectomy does have me worried about Joey B...

John Frascella (Football)
@LegendSports7
Replying to
@WyattB_FF
Yeah, my structure doesn’t make a lot of sense, anyway. I have a lot of Chase in exposure but not much Burrow. I’m just worried about Burrow because of the appendectomy and general rust. Just wanna see how he looks out the gate, first

I think I’m more worried about Joe Burrow for fantasy purposes than virtually everyone else.

— John Frascella (Football) (@LegendSports7) August 23, 2022

And... my friends... that was NOT a Joey B game in Cincy's opener. FOUR interceptions, a lost fumble and a loss to Mitch Trubisky?? Score another one for Johnny Fro.

13. I warned people that Matt Ryan might be washed, and Indy was getting overhyped. Source tweets:

 

 

And, right on the money, it was a disastrous opening game against the weak Texans. Check out my detailed summary here.  

14. I had the Cowboys as overrated. 

15. I had the Commanders as underrated, within the very same division. Read my full article here. 

What can I say? I had a helluva Week 1 in the NFL!

John Frascella is a published sports author who has been covering the NFL for 18 years. Follow him on Twitter @LegendSports7 for all things football throughout this action-packed season. 

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