Tuesday, December 11, 2018

Was "Linsanity" a Fluke? Jeremy Lin's Numbers Beg to Differ

PART I: "Linsanity" Takes Over the Nation

At the time, we had never seen anything like it.

As a matter of fact, we haven't seen anything like it, since -- "Linsanity" was a magical time in NBA history.

In the winter of 2012, Jeremy Lin took over New York basketball. Actually, he took over the entire NBA. No one has risen to legendary status as quickly as the unassuming 6'3" guard out of Harvard University.

Undrafted out of an Ivy League school, Lin was never considered a legit NBA prospect; but when the Knicks were struggling and then-head coach Mike D'Antoni was looking for a spark, Lin responded with some of the most inspired basketball the world's ever seen.

Lin's career scoring average had been a measly 2.6 points per game, when D'Antoni surprisingly turned to him on February 4, 2012, against the local rival Nets. Seemingly out of nowhere, Lin exploded for 25 points, seven assists and five rebounds, while shooting over 50 percent from the floor. Had to be lightning in a bottle, right?

Nope. Lin was ready for his opportunity. He had been chomping at the bit. He wasn't about to become a one-game wonder.

He immediately responded with consecutive games of 28, 23, 38, 20 and 27 points. Six consecutive games of 20-plus points for a guy whose previous career-high was 13. Lin was on a mission. He was totally willing to put the entire Knicks team on his back. New York won all six of those games, and naturally, Lin became an instant major-market celebrity.

From then on, he didn't disappoint, scoring over 20 points on five more occasions. He also nailed a dramatic game-winner against the Raptors. Quite simply, Lin could do no wrong.

Of course all good things come to an end, and when they do, Carmelo Anthony is usually there  standing in the rubble. Melo returned to steal Lin's thunder, and D'Antoni's Knicks were unable to maintain their winning ways. But Lin's legacy was already cemented. He earned himself a regular spot in the NBA. Was his tremendous success repeatable?

PART II: A Closer Look at the Numbers

In the 2011-12 NBA season, Lin was 23rd in usage rate, ahead of big names like LaMarcus Aldridge, Blake Griffin, Dwight Howard and Tim Duncan. He was tied with "The Truth" Paul Pierce, and fractional points behind Kyrie Irving and Tony Parker.

That's pretty astonishing given the fact that, prior to the Linsanity explosion, he was playing about six minutes per game. Lin had eight games below seven minutes played, yet for the season he posted a hefty 27.1 usage rate (Kobe Bryant led the league at 34.5).

Point being, in actuality (adjusted for common sense), Lin's usage rate was right around 30, placing him with the big dogs like Kevin Durant, Dwyane Wade and LeBron James. No team has allowed Lin that kind of freedom, since. Could he have continued his superstar level of production?

Not too long ago, in the 2017-18 season, Lin averaged 18 points per game in just 25 minutes. Injury ultimately derailed his season, but had he been at his Knicks' usage rate, he would have been averaging close to 23-25 PPG (very similar to Linsanity).

Maybe that's who Jeremy Lin really is -- if you give him the ball and get out of his way, he gives you close to 24 PPG. That's pretty damn good.

This year, with the rebuilding Hawks, Lin has been a steady force, averaging 11 PPG in just 18 minutes a night. He's shooting a career-high 51.2% from the floor, utilizing his craftiness and experience to manipulate his way into easier opportunities around the rim and in the mid-range.

In recent years, his three-point percentage has suddenly skyrocketed. For much of his career, Lin shot around 35% from beyond the arc, but in the past three seasons he's been at 37.2, 50.0 and 41.3 respectively. As a result, Lin has been using his three-point shotfake to open up drive-and-kick opportunities for his young Atlanta teammates. The youthful Hawks aren't winning, but Lin has been leaned upon to aid in the development of rookie franchise point guard Trae Young.

In the end, Lin is a very good NBA basketball player. Could he have sustained long-term success as a superstar? I guess we'll never know.

No matter what, the legend of Linsanity lives on. 

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