Wednesday, December 26, 2018

Grading MLB Free Agent Signings, Part II: Lefty Love for Brantley, Miller & Murphy

A very quick recap of Part I before we get started:

Patrick Corbin, Nationals: B-

Nathan Eovaldi, Red Sox: C-

Andrew McCutchen, Phillies: F

J.A. Happ, Yankees: B

Jeurys Familia, Mets: B

All right, let's roll right into Round 2...

Michael Brantley, OF: 2 years, $32 million from the Astros
Grade: B

It's one less year, a little less per season and Brantley is a better hitter than McCutchen at this stage in their respective careers. Plus, Brantley is a tiny bit younger. This is a solid move for the Astros, who have leaned heavily upon right-handed hitters in recent years: Jose Altuve, George Springer, Carlos Correa and Yuli Gurriel, to name a handful.

Brantley brings a veteran lefty bat, coming off an all-star season in which he hit .309 with 17 HRs, 36 2Bs and the third-best OPS of his 10-year career, .832. He's a calming influence and professional hitter; the one issue, of course, has always been his health. He played just 11 games in 2016 and 90 in '17. I would have given the Astros an A-, if not for my long-term concerns about Brantley's ability to stay on the field.

Charlie Morton, SP: 2 years, $30 million from the Rays
Grade: C+

I don't know how to write about Morton without talking about his "unusual" career trajectory. Was nearly out of baseball, throwing in the low 90s with zero success, then years later returns to the bigs with a vengeance, averaging around 95-96 with a power sinker and touching 99 consistently in the postseason. Must have been a "special workout regimen."

Whatever it was/is, Morton is 35 years old now. This seems like a very un-Rays like move; unless they know something we don't. I generally trust their braintrust, so I'm taking the conservative route with this grade. Somewhere in the middle.

Lance Lynn, SP: 3 years, $30 million from the Rangers
Grade: B-

I featured Lynn in my 10 Free Agent Sleepers earlier this offseason, and mentioned that I expected him to hang in limbo like last year. The Rangers had no intention of sitting around, apparently. They've grabbed Lynn for a very reasonable pricetag, but I still think Lynn could have protected his own long-term stock by signing with a National League club.

Financially, this is a low-risk move for Texas -- especially considering that Eovaldi got $17 million per season, yikes! -- but it doesn't seem like the right landing spot for either side. It's a B- play on this pitchers' market, but Lynn will probably be over 4.00 in the ERA column. We know Globe Life Park in Arlington is where hitters go to pad their stats.

Andrew Miller, RP: 2 years, $25 million from the Cardinals
Grade: B+

We all kind of feel like Miller is due to break down, right? Fifty-three appearances in 2012, 73 in '14, 60 in '15, 70 in '16 and 57 the year after that. He breaks off slider after slider after slider after slider. He's thrust into high-leverage spots, time and time again with two runners on or the bases loaded. Thirteen years in the bigs for Miller; he started as a highly-touted starter and transitioned into one of the game's elite all-around relievers.

Injuries understandably crept in last season, leaving him with just 37 appearances and an abnormally-bloated 4.24 ERA. Miller hadn't been above 2.04 since 2013 (still impressive at 2.64). So now might not exactly be the "right" time to ink him as a free agent, but he still has to be considered one of the best left-handed relief pitchers in the MLB. Off the top of my head I think of Aroldis Chapman, Felipe Vazquez and Zach Britton; Miller has to be somewhere in the top five. Ultimately, if Miller isn't feeling as healthy and thinks his pure stuff may decline, he made a smart decision by escaping the perils of the American League.

Daniel Murphy, 2B: 2 years, $24 million from the Rockies
Grade: B+

This is essentially the same scenario as Miller -- after some scorching seasons, "Murph" finally began to break down last season. The Rockies are buying at a low point, but D.J. LeMahieu ain't comin' back, and we're talkin' about Coors Field, here. Murph should enjoy the hitter's dream park, surrounded by star sluggers Nolan Arenado, Charlie Blackmon and Trevor Story.

Physically, this may not be the right time to sign Murph, but it's a much better two-way fit than say, Lynn to the Rangers. This move makes complete sense for both Murphy and the Rockies. If he stays healthy (enough), I think both sides will end up rather pleased, here.

Stay tuned for Volume III...coming soon!

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