Sunday, January 7, 2018

NFL Sunday Wild Card Predictions: Cam & Brees Will Give Us the Best Game of the Weekend

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So I ended up going 1-1 yesterday, though I'm confident the Chiefs would have taken care of business had Travis Kelce remained on the field. 

Kansas City's Pro Bowl tight end took a wicked shot from Titans safety Johnathan Cyprien, and that high-powered hit changed the complexion of the entire game. Kelce was diagnosed with a concussion and (obviously) did not return. Marcus Mariota, Derrick Henry and the Titans subsequently erased a 21-3 deficit en route to a stunning 22-21 comeback victory. 

Fingers crossed Tennessee's miracles will continue next week against the unraveling Patriots

Okay, here we go...

Buffalo Bills @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Date, Time and Network: Sunday, January 7, at 1:05 p.m. on CBS
Lines and Movement: The Jaguars have moved from -7 to -9.5 (on some sites)
Public Percentage: 52% on the Jaguars

Honestly, with the obvious exception of Jaguars and Bills fans, does anyone really care about this match-up?

I just can't see people being psyched about watching Blake Bortles in a playoff game. Regardless, my initial instinct (and hope) was that Jacksonville's No. 1 rated defense would smother and suffocate Sean McDermott's Bills, but the split on public action and yesterday's Titans upset are influencing my decision-making. At this point, the safer play is probably to take the Bills getting 9-plus points, on the outside chance that crazy stuff happens and the Bills make this a real tight game down the stretch.

Clearly, strategically, this game is going to be all about defense and running the ball. Rookie RB Leonard Fournette has been as good as advertised for Jacksonville, and today's early reports say veteran star RB LeSean "Shady" McCoy is "likely to play" today for Buffalo. These clubs are going to keep the clock moving, and will limit one another's total number of offensive possessions. Should be a "ground-and-pound" kind of day, as Rex Ryan used to say.

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In the end, this game feels like yesterday's Chiefs Titans match-up. Many of us felt the Titans had no business making the playoffs; Kelce goes down, Mariota catches his own pass for a touchdown, and Tennessee shocks a much better KC team.

I feel the same way about the Bills. They don't deserve to be here. They literally tried to tank their own season in the middle of a playoff race. Maybe this is one of those seasons where the shitty teams keep getting lucky in close games. We shall see...

** Johnny Fro's Prediction: Jaguars 20, Bills 17 ** (hoping justice will be served)

Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints

Date, Time and Network: Sunday, January 7, at 4:40 p.m. on FOX
Lines and Movement: The Saints have moved from -6 to -7 (on some sites)
Public Percentage: 55% on the Saints

Now THIS is a football game.

A heated division rivalry. Two big-name quarterbacks with completely different styles. Two defenses who have put together some superb performances this season. Two "thunder-and-lightning" rushing attacks, with Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara for the Saints, and Jonathan Stewart and Christian McCaffrey for the Panthers.

The obvious key to this game is...which version of Cam Newton will we see? Will we see the lazy gunslinger who hangs on to the ball a beat too long, makes poor decisions and slumps his shoulders? Or will we see Superman, the decisive version of Cam who gets rid of the ball when he should, scrambles when he should and relishes quieting a raucous road crowd.

Again, the safe play is to take the Panthers with the points. If you take the Bills and Panthers getting points today, is there really a scenario where you could lose both? Not the way things have been going in the postseason the past couple years. The "lesser" teams are scrapping, scratching and clawing.

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I do like the Saints at home -- like everybody else, I guess -- but the Panthers had a recent, long playoff run, like the poised Falcons who pulled off an easy upset over the young Rams yesterday. There is something to be said about recent experience. The Saints were 7-9 in each of the past three seasons, not even sniffing a single playoff game. I'll go the same way as my first prediction in this piece.

** Johnny Fro's Prediction: Saints 27, Panthers 24 **

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