As I watched the New York Jets get absolutely dismantled by the San Diego Chargers on their way to a dismal 1-4 record, I couldn't help but wonder aloud, "Are Woody Johnson, John Idzik and Rex Ryan surprised by what they are seeing on the field?"
In order to seriously answer that question, you have to address each party individually.
1. Woody Johnson shouldn't be surprised by the Jets' horrific start to the season because he supported (and perhaps facilitated) the decision to remain roughly $21 million below the salary cap. Sometimes he seems more like a businessman than a sports owner who cares about winning.
2. John Idzik is probably shocked because he's clueless in terms of talent evaluation and roster moves. If he believed in the moves he made this offseason, he probably thought the team would be better than it actually is. Put simply, I don't think there's any doubt that he's one of the worst GMs in professional sports. I will get to his specific decisions shortly.
3. Rex Ryan is probably surprised because he only cares about defense, and the Jets do have one of the better front-sevens in the league. If he knew anything about offense he would have known this team was doomed from the get-go.
Idzik's Offseason Moves
Signing RB Chris Johnson to a two-year, $8 million contract: This signing was completely asinine on so many different levels. I will gladly discuss each one:
1. In my opinion, the most important aspect of a GM's job is evaluating the talent on his current roster. If he cannot evaluate his own talent pool, he will not be able to address team needs and fill the holes that need to be filled. Johnson's two-year deal clearly displays that Idzik was unable to evaluate the talent on his own roster.
Heading into the offseason, the Jets' best offensive weapon was RB Chris Ivory. I would argue that their second-best offensive weapon was RB Bilal Powell, who was versatile and effective in 2013. That leads us to the obvious question...WHY WOULD IDZIK SIGN A WASHED-UP RUNNING BACK FOR $8 MILLION WHEN HIS TOP TWO OFFENSIVE PLAYERS WERE RUNNING BACKS???
Please excuse the capital letters, but desperate times call for desperate measures. I'm willing to play devil's advocate to my own question. Here's a possible response: "Maybe he wanted to add depth to the position."
Yes, this would be a logical response if he added cheap running backs to back up Ivory and Powell. Idzik actually did this when he added RBs Daryl Richardson (former Rams starter) and Alex Green (started a handful of games for the Packers). Those signings I could live with; every team needs depth at the running back position. However, he didn't sign Johnson for depth. You don't dump $8 million on a reserve. He signed Johnson to be the starter, which means he thought he was better than both Ivory and Powell. Which leads me to my second point:
2. Chris Johnson is finished. How could Idzik possibly think he's better than Ivory or Powell? Let's start with what the naked eye tells us: Ivory is strong, aggressive, explosive and in his prime. Powell is shifty, smart, versatile and a great third-down player. Johnson is small, frail, old and un-explosive.
Okay, so it couldn't have been the naked eye. Let's go to the statistics:
-In 2012, Johnson averaged 4.5 yards per carry. In his prime he averaged 4.9 (2008) and 5.6 (2009). In 2013, he dropped all the way down to 3.9 yards per carry. On film he looked beat up and slow. This is a guy who has been absorbing hits for a long time. The decline in his game has been blatantly obvious (to everyone except Idzik).
-In 2012, Ivory averaged 5.4 yards per carry, followed by 4.6 in '13. He looked hungry and explosive on film. This is also a player who hasn't sustained much damage because he played behind Pierre Thomas and Mark Ingram in New Orleans. "Fresh legs," as they say. At this point in their respective careers, IVORY IS FAR SUPERIOR TO JOHNSON IN BOTH ABILITY AND PURE STATISTICS.
Let's not forget the fact that Johnson's mere presence on the roster takes snaps and touches away from both Ivory and Powell. Apparently the Jets play in an offensive system where the most dangerous players get less touches than the worthless players. This is an interesting strategy. I'll have to do some research on this.
3. Signing a big-name free agent who is past his prime is never a good idea. It seems like the Jets have been obsessed with adding big names over the past few years, whether it's Johnson, Tim Tebow or the next man on my list...
Signing QB Michael Vick to a one-year, $4 million contract: The first thing that comes to mind is jersey sales, which brings me back to my point about Woody Johnson being a businessman and not a football guy.
I mean, why else would Idzik dump $4 million on a has-been quarterback who can never stay healthy? The move makes even less sense when you consider Idzik's obsession with Geno Smith. WHY BRING IN AN OVER-THE-HILL, BIG-NAME QUARTERBACK TO BACK UP YOUR YOUNG "FRANCHISE" QUARTERBACK WHEN YOU KNOW IT'S GOING TO PUT A TON OF PRESSURE ON HIM, ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE NEW YORK MEDIA AND FANBASE???
There's only one logical answer to that question...that Idzik didn't know. He didn't realize what kind of pressure Vick's presence puts upon Smith's shoulders. He didn't realize the New York media would be all over the Vick signing. He didn't realize the New York fans would be chanting for Vick the second Smith faltered.
Wait a minute, how could he not realize any of that? The only possible answer is that John Idzik is completely and utterly clueless. And why are we committing $12 million to two old bums? Why isn't the money going to fresh legs?
Signing WR Eric Decker to a five-year, $36.25 million contract: Compared to Johnson and Vick, this was a good signing. Decker has had an excellent career and definitely has some prime left. However, another part of a GM's job is evaluating a player's production relative to where he played.
For example, Decker put together back-to-back outstanding seasons while playing with Peyton Manning in Denver. On paper, his numbers suggest that he is a No. 1 receiver, but the circumstances of his success have to be considered. 1. Peyton Manning is one of the top two quarterbacks in the world (the other being Aaron Rodgers). 2. Demaryius Thomas is one of the premier wide receivers in the game. 3. Wes Welker is one of the premier slot receivers in the game. 4. Julius Thomas is one of the premier tight ends in the game.
The repetition was intentional. What's the point? As long as you have decent skills, it's relatively easy to be a successful receiver in that system. Just because Decker had No. 1 receiver-type numbers, doesn't mean he's a No. 1 receiver. On a level playing field, I view Decker as a WR2. Nevertheless, this was still a decent signing meant to give Geno Smith a legitimate threat. Which brings us to more capital letters:
WHY DID IDZIK GIVE $12 MILLION TO SHITTY, NON-NECESSITIES LIKE JOHNSON AND VICK INSTEAD OF SIGNING ANOTHER QUALITY OUTSIDE RECEIVER LIKE EMMANUEL SANDERS OR STEVE SMITH? WHY DOES IDZIK THINK IT'S OKAY TO HAVE DAVID NELSON AND GREG SALAD DRESSING AS YOUR SECOND AND THIRD RECEIVERS???
Let's explore this point a little more. David Nelson has been in the NFL since 2010 and his career high in receptions is 61. His career high in receiving yardage is 658. He averages 478 yards per season. This is our No. 2 receiver. Need I say more?
Greg Salas has been in the NFL since 2011 and his career high in receptions is 27. His career high in receiving yardage is 264. He averages 159 yards per season. This is our No. 3 receiver. Need I say more?
OUR NO. 2 AND 3 OUTSIDE RECEIVERS AVERAGE 478 AND 159 YARDS PER SEASON! IDZIK DIDN'T THINK THIS WAS AN ISSUE HEADING INTO THE YEAR? HE THOUGHT THESE REJECTS WOULD AID IN GENO SMITH'S DEVELOPMENT?? HE GOES ALL-IN ON GENO IN THE DRAFT THEN DECIDES HE DOESN'T NEED ANY HELP TO SUCCEED??? WHY AM I JETS FAN????!!!!
Okay, now that I've calmed down, let's do a side-by-side comparison of what the offense is versus what it could (and should) have been:
QB: Geno Smith/Geno Smith
WR1: Eric Decker/Eric Decker or DeSean Jackson
WR2: David Nelson/Steve Smith or Emmanuel Sanders
WR3: Greg Salas/Devin Hester
Slot: Jeremy Kerley/Jeremy Kerley
TE: Jace Amaro/Owen Daniels
I don't know about you, but I like Emmanuel Sanders, Devin Hester and Owen Daniels better than David Nelson, Greg Salad Dressing and Jace "I knock the ball down more often than I catch it" Amaro.
All of this would have been possible had the money been allocated properly.
Conclusion
At the end of the day, for someone who has risked his job on Geno Smith, Jets GM John Idzik hasn't given his prized pick a legitimate chance to succeed. Do I think Smith has a future as a Super Bowl caliber quarterback? No, absolutely not. But could the Jets be better than 1-4 right now?
The answer is an unequivocal, "Yes."
Smith's overall decision-making is questionable at best, but he has the ability to make tough throws if given protection and the proper offensive weapons. The Jets could have easily defeated the Packers, Bears and Lions (all tight losses) if they weren't relying so heavily upon Nelson and Salas in the absence of Decker. This was especially evident when the Jets' offense went completely stagnant after Decker left the Packers game with an injury. I think it's safe to say Smith would have been in much better hands with Emmanuel Sanders, Devin Hester and Owen Daniels.
If John Frascella were the GM of the New York Jets, they would be 4-1 right now. But I'm not, and they're 1-4.
This is the world I live in.
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