Since my Mets have been making me sick all summer, you can imagine how eager I am to get the NFL regular season underway. Last year's predictions had some bright spots, as I correctly predicted the exact records of the Jets, Steelers, Jaguars, Eagles, Bears, Bucs and Falcons. But what's past is prologue, so let's move on to the 2016-17 NFL season...
AFC EAST
The Dolphins front office had an obvious plan: Acquire post-prime veterans who could still produce, while helping some of the youngsters along in their development. Those vets are Arian Foster, Mario Williams, Kiko Alonso and Byron Maxwell. I think Foster can still be effective, but he can never stay on the field; Williams' effort level has been questioned in recent years, so that doesn't bode well next to Ndamukong Suh; Alonso is oft-injured and has never lived up to the hype, and Maxwell generally rates as one of the worst corners in defensive metrics. All that, and they're still waiting for DeVante Parker to emerge in their passing attack. That day may never come. The same goes for Jay Ajayi in their running game. Miami's schedule isn't easy, either.
3. Buffalo Bills (8-8): As always, team success boils down to health. This team boasts a very talented offensive trio in Tyrod Taylor, LeSean McCoy and Sammy Watkins, but all three battled various injuries throughout the 2015 campaign. If those guys can operate at close to 100 percent, Buffalo has a shot to be better than 8-8.
On the flip side, losing star NT Marcell Dareus for the early portion of the season surely stings. Also, when the going gets tough, HC Rex Ryan can be a deer in headlights on the sidelines. He's just not as prepared as most other NFL head coaches.
2. New England Patriots (9-7): I'm finally pulling the trigger! I'm always realistic about my Jets, so I consistently predict them to finish behind the Pats, but not this time. This time, I think Bill Belichick is putting TOO much faith in his "system" (which is essentially finding all of the dirtiest ways to cheat). This time, Tom Brady actually is suspended for the first four games of the season, and temporary replacement Jimmy Garoppolo has to be concerned about the injuries to Julian Edelman, Dion Lewis and Danny Amendola. Who will be on the field during Garoppolo's four starts? Who will be playing hurt? Who will be inactive?
The Pats have simply become too cocky for their own good. Even if Edelman and Amendola do play, they'll be at far less than 100 percent, and the organization is talking about journeyman Chris Hogan like he's the second coming of Jordy Nelson. Pleaseeee, people. Let's see how good a lifetime WR4 looks with Garoppolo under center. In addition, Belichick's faith in his program allowed him to dismiss star DE Chandler Jones without batting an eye. I personally felt he was New England's most impactful defensive player.
In the end, I do believe in Belichick and Brady's "system." I'm not the kind of guy who denies obvious results. But this time, with the 9th toughest schedule and a possible 1-3 start without Brady, I don't think they have enough talent to win the division. It's that simple.
1. New York Jets (9-7): All right, so I'm copping out a little. I'm giving my Jets the tiebreaker for the AFC East crown, but our brutal opening schedule doesn't allow me to predict 10 or 11 wins. The Jets open up vs. Bengals, @ Bills, @ Chiefs, v. Seahawks, @ Steelers then @ Cardinals.
ARE YOU F'N KIDDING ME?? SERIOUSLY??? HOW IS THAT FAIR???? I'M CONVINCED THAT BOTH THE NFL AND GOD HATE THE JETS.
So, with that, there's a very good chance the Jets open at 3-3, or perhaps even 2-4. I never like falling behind, but this Jets roster has the pure talent to recover and persevere. It starts with our offensive skill players: Brandon Marshall, Eric Decker, Matt Forte, Bilal Powell and Quincy Enunwa. Marshall and Decker are two of the best and most consistent wide receivers in the world, Forte and Powell are both two-way threats in the rushing attack, and Enunwa's explosiveness makes him a major X-factor for Chan Gailey's intricately designed offense.
Ryan Fitzpatrick has never been a great NFL quarterback, but he's always played his best with Gailey drawing up the X's and O's. As the old saying goes, they're a match made in heaven. I'm still not a true believer in Fitz, but GM Mike Maccagnan's talent pool is perfectly catered to his veteran quarterback's needs. Fitz will post another strong statistical season if his offensive line protects well enough.
Defensively, Gang Green will miss NT Damon "Snacks" Harrison and top LB Demario Davis. Darrelle Revis and David Harris are declining a bit in their old age, so upstarts Marcus Williams and Lorenzo Mauldin will have to step up.
In all honesty, the Jets are one of the most talented all-around teams in the NFL. The only thing holding them back will be their ridiculously unfair schedule.
4. Cleveland Browns (6-10): Preseason Hype Train, comin' through...Robert Griffin III looks sharp in the early going, but I'm calling his Sam Bradford bluff here. Bradford set the world on fire in the preseason last year, but I correctly predicted that it was all smoke and mirrors (see Bradford's synopsis at #25. Nailed it.). I'll admit I'd probably take Griffin over Bradford right now, but I'd still rather see steady veteran Josh McCown under center for Hue Jackson's Browns.
AFC NORTH
Cleveland has some interesting offensive personnel. Rookie WR Corey Coleman is generating some early hype, converted QB Terrelle Pryor has been looking like Teddy Ginn on go routes, Josh Gordon is due back for game 5, Duke Johnson is a splendid receiver out of the backfield and Gary Barnidge was a first tier tight end last season.
This offense can't really hit its peak without Gordon, but I think McCown could do some serious damage with this unit beginning in game 5. I don't think Griffin can maximize what he has here. As the recently married Sam Ytuarte said, "It will boil down to what Griffin does after his first terrible game." I agree, and I don't think Griffin has the necessary mental toughness at this point.
Defensively, this club is always hit or miss. They're never a dominant unit, but they surprise you with strong performances at times. Obviously they need to keep CB1 Joe Haden healthy, for once.
3. Baltimore Ravens (8-8): Last year I called out GM Ozzie Newsome for hanging Joe Flacco out to dry. He failed to provide "Joe Cool" with the weapons necessary to compete with the Steelers and Bengals. This season things have improved with the additions of Mike Wallace (I like his skillset in connection with Flacco's passing tendencies) and Ben Watson, but these aren't players who change the dynamics of an organization that is treading water.
This team is mediocre, and adding FS Eric Weddle after his prime shows that Newsome is still trying to work with his struggling, over-the-hill core. After this middling season, the Ravens will likely need a roster overhaul and youth infusion.
2. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7): I really wanted to go 8-8 here, but in the end the superstar combo of Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown squeezes another win out of me. Too many question marks for this organization right now: Martavis Bryant is suspended for the season, Le'Veon Bell is suspended for the first three games, newly acquired TE Ladarius Green may have to retire, and can they keep Big Ben and C Maurkice Pouncey on the field for an entire season? They may simply be over the hill in terms of health.
On the bright side, "The Steel Curtain" has rebounded in the past year and a half. Once one of the most consistently dominant defenses in the NFL, Pittsburgh fell to the bottom half of the league after the primes of Troy Polamalu, Casey Hampton, LaMarr Woodley and James Harrison (though the latter has surely revived himself with the assistance of PEDs). Now things are beginning to look up again, thanks in part to the outstanding linebacker tandem of Lawrence Timmons and Ryan Shazier.
Obviously I'd like this team a lot better if they had Ben, Le'Veon, AB, Martavis and Ladarius out there at the same time, but that just isn't going to happen. Tread lightly with expectations, here.
1. Cincinnati Bengals (9-7): The Bengals are backing into a first place prediction here -- I don't trust RGIII and Josh Gordon, the Ravens are too mediocre and the Steelers are too injury prone. And yes, like the AFC East, this is another division tiebreaker scenario.
I wasn't impressed by Cincinnati's offseason, and I think Andy Dalton will miss the combo of Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu more than the front office realizes. I expect Jones and Sanu to perform well in Detroit and Atlanta, respectively. In the past they have been viewed as talented guys who never quite reached their full potential, but at the same time their raw talent drew some defensive attention away from the great A.J. Green. Now Brandon LaFell and rookie Tyler Boyd are expected to fill those roles, and I'm not quite as confident in them.
Also, obviously, Tyler Eifert's injury and LB Vontaze Burfict's suspension are serious concerns. The entire AFC North is plagued by fortune-changing question marks.
AFC SOUTH
Defensively this squad is similar to the Browns. Sometimes they wow you with a lights out performance, but generally you can pick them apart.
3. Houston Texans (7-9): I'm not buying into Brock Osweiler. I think the Texans organization has painted itself into a corner here. The funny thing is that they would have been better off forgetting about Osweiler and Brian Hoyer, and instead sticking with Ryan Fitzpatrick from a few years ago. I think Fitz could take better advantage of DeAndre Hopkins and Lamar Miller than Osweiler ultimately will.
We'll also have to wait and see how JJ Watt recovers from his back surgery.
2. Indianapolis Colts (9-7): Everyone knows I'm not an Andrew Luck guy, but he has to bounce back a bit this season. T.Y. Hilton, Donte Moncrief and Phillip Dorsett form a solid WR trio, and TE Dwayne Allen is always a contributor when healthy. Obviously people will be down on Luck after last season's debacle, so he'll play with something to prove this year. That type of motivation is always worth considering. Dorsett should also improve without vet Andre Johnson stealing some of his WR3 looks.
I'm never fully committed to this team because I think Chuck Pagano is a fraud from a coaching standpoint. He's a nice guy, but his limited football intelligence holds this organization back.
1. Jacksonville Jaguars (10-6): Twelve teams in and I'm predicting the Jacksonville Jaguars for the most wins? Never thought I'd see the day, but this club is stacked with super talented players in their primes. It feels like their time is now.
Blake Bortles impressed me last season despite a stupid name and noodly arm, thanks in large part to Allen Robinson, Allen Hurns, Julius Thomas and T.J. Yeldon. As I noted in the caption above, "The Allens" are easily one of the top 3 receiver combos in the game (along with the Jets and Broncos), Thomas is a gifted tight end who really started to find his rhythm with Bortles toward the end of last year, and Yeldon was a bouncy rookie back who should have received more touches (Toby Gerhart inexplicably stole goal line carries and Denard Robinson swiped midfield work).
This season we can add RB Chris Ivory and WR Marqise Lee (back from injury) to the mix, and there's no question the Jags will boast one of most prolific offenses in the league.
Defensively, don't sleep on this group. Highly-touted draft pick DE Dante Fowler is finally healthy, and star FS Tashaun Gipson has defected from Cleveland. The argument could be made that Gipson was the Browns best individual player. MLB Paul Posluszny will provide much needed veteran leadership, and I think ridiculously explosive LB Telvin Smith will be one of the top 5 defensive players in the world.
HC Gus Bradley has to capitalize now, while Jacksonville has a light schedule and many of his studs are reaching their athletic peaks.
AFC WEST
And clearly, more than anything else, Kansas City needs to keep Jamaal Charles on the field. He's one of my favorite players to watch, but his health is really a year-to-year thing. We all feel like he could go down at any time because history has proven that to be true. If everything breaks right they can go 9-7, but I just don't feel like it will.
3. San Diego Chargers (7-9): They'll bounce back a bit with the return of Keenan Allen, the addition of burner Travis Benjamin and improved performance from Melvin Gordon. Their defense will get picked apart, as usual.
2. Oakland Raiders (10-6): Here is a team that is very similar to the aforementioned Jaguars. Oakland has been showing gradual improvement throughout the young Derek Carr era, thanks to meticulous work by GM Reggie McKenzie.
Michael Crabtree proved to be an excellent investment last season, and core pieces like RB Latavius Murray, WRs Amari Cooper and Seth Roberts, and superstar LBs Malcolm Smith and Khalil Mack have been accumulated over the years. This offseason brings productive veterans, CB Sean Smith and FS Reggie Nelson, to Oakland's defensive backfield.
Clearly, this organization wants to win now. And they just might.
1. Denver Broncos (11-5): The defending Super Bowl champs always have to worry about a possible hangover, but this is still the most talented all-around team in the conference. Mark Sanchez and Trevor Siemian are currently locked in a QB battle -- which I expect Sanchez to win -- but Denver proved that quarterback play didn't really matter last season. Peyton Manning was one of the worst statistical performers in the NFL last year, and yet the Broncos brought home the title. If Denver leaves Sanchez alone and lets him do his thing, he should be perfectly fine with the help of Pro Bowlers Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders.
Defensively, you know the deal. Some pundits consider Von Miller the best overall player in football, while Chris Harris and Aqib Talib form a perfect combination at the corner position. Veteran DeMarcus Ware is somewhat of a health concern this season, but Denver's D has other studs like DE Derek Wolfe, NT Sylvester Williams, LB Brandon Marshall and SS T.J. Ward around to pick up the potential slack.
John Elway's Broncos are still the team to beat in the AFC.
NFC EAST
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4. Philadelphia Eagles (4-12): You know that phenomenon when everyone is down on a particular team, then they shock the world and break out for a big season?
Well, the Eagles aren't going to be that type of team. Everyone thinks they suck, and they do. Former HC and quasi-GM Chip Kelly slowly dismantled the talent on this roster, parting ways with quality players like LeSean McCoy, Jeremy Maclin and DeSean Jackson. He hasn't left new HC Doug Pederson with much -- it's never good when you can make a plausible argument that Darren Sproles is the best player on an NFL team. I personally happen to like Sproles; but you get my point.
Sam Bradford is an absolute joke, Jordan Matthews is coming into the season banged up, Nelson Agholor looks like another Chip bust and this defense is suspect, if I'm being polite. It's gonna be a longggg year in Philly. Yikes.
3. Dallas Cowboys (9-7): I like the talent pool on Jerry Jones' team, but my gut tells me Tony Romo won't be able to stay healthy. Like Ben Roethlisberger in Pittsburgh, Romo may simply be past the point of playing a full 16-game season. These are two veteran warriors who have taken a ridiculous number of vicious hits over the years. Unfortunately, Dallas will need Romo for the entirety of the season because the Redskins and Giants look like upper echelon NFC teams.
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The good news is that explosive rookie Ezekiel Elliott is expected to provide a major lift in the ground game, and Dez Bryant looks healthy thus far in the preseason. The Dallas D will be so-so, as usual.
2. Washington Redskins (10-6): I think HC Jay Gruden has finally figured things out in Washington. Some pundits have suggested that last season was a fluke, but I have some faith in the program that Gruden is building.
From a pure skillset standpoint, I was never a Kirk Cousins fan, but Gruden has found a way to make him more efficient and less of a reckless gunslinger. He has veterans DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon on the outside, with solid slot man Jamison Crowder and star TE Jordan Reed always available in the middle of the field. RB2 Chris Thompson also provides a nice lift as an excellent receiver out of the backfield. Cousins has been given the proper accommodations to succeed, with a strong mix of talent and savvy coaching.
Defensively, helloooo Josh Norman. That was a shock, wasn't it? To me, that was one of the top 2 or 3 stories of the offseason. An elite player at his position leaving a 15-1 team in his prime. Carolina probably should have just overpaid a bit. Rather overpay Norman than let him go to a legitimate conference contender like the 'Skins. Hopefully the Panthers aren't getting too cocky about their "system" over there; beginning to think they can let stars walk because they're better prepared than other teams.
Here's a little secret: The best system is having more talented players than your competitors.
This defense looks decent, but I'd like to see them re-sign FS Dashon Goldson if they have the cap room. They'd have one of the top 5 defensive backfields in the NFL if they do.
1. New York Giants (10-6): Karma is real, don't you think? The G-Men famously had some freaky plays during their two Super Bowl runs of the Eli Manning era, but when things aren't going well for them in a given season, they go realllly bad. Like, painfully bad. I feel like the Giants have lost more excruciatingly close regular season games in the past three seasons than any other team. Giants fans, you'll back me up on that, right?
Well, this year, I have a good feeling. DT Damon Harrison and CB Janoris Jenkins were totally appropriate offseason signings, and I think rookie Sterling Shepard can be the WR2 the organization has been looking for throughout Victor Cruz's perpetual struggle to get healthy (doesn't seem like that day will ever actually come; he's probably finished).
This offense can reach its full potential if Eli gets receiving contributions from RB Shane Vereen, TE Will Tye and WR3 Dwayne Harris. One thing I always give Eli credit for is trusting his open targets, regardless of their individual skill level (remember Preston Parker?). And I agree with that philosophy -- if an opposing team wants to leave a professional receiver or tight end wide open, you have to throw them the ball. It's the right play. If they continue to screw up easy plays, the organization will obviously take note and move on from the player, as was the case with Parker. Now Eli should be able to successfully spread the ball around to Shepard, Harris, Vereen and of course, the amazing Odell Beckham, Jr. If you don't like watching him play, then you don't like football.
The Giants have a very easy schedule, so my only hesitation is rookie HC Ben McAdoo. I easily could have predicted 11 wins here, but I'm shaving one off for head coaching inexperience. Nevertheless, the G-Men get the tiebreaker in this division.
NFC NORTH
4. Chicago Bears (6-10): Has John Fox been a career-long fluke? For the most part, the guy has always been successful as a head coach, but is he like Chuck Pagano in that he's more of a motivator than a football genius? Personally, I'd rather my coach be an X's and O's genius like Belichick, Bruce Arians, Mike McCarthy or Gruden. Rah-rah guys are a dime a dozen.
Anyway, as always, you can't win with Jay Cutler. Brings everyone down around him. The team has been fighting incessantly during practice. Cutler is the furthest thing from a fearless leader since Ryan Leaf.
I also dislike some of the early reports on WR Kevin White. His supporters have always played up his supreme athleticism, but organizational insiders keep saying that he's "really raw" as a route runner. I just don't think the Bears can afford to be super patient with a developing receiver. Since they locked Cutler up long-term and he's running out of prime, they really need their receivers to be ready now. If they couldn't win with Alshon Jeffery and Brandon Marshall, how are they going to win now? They don't even have TE Martellus Bennett anymore.
The only reason I'm giving them 6 wins is because they are tied for the second-easiest schedule in the NFL.
3. Detroit Lions (7-9): Maybe there will be a little addition by subtraction here. Of course everyone's initial reaction is, "Calvin Johnson retired unexpectedly? This team is really gonna suck!" But I'm not so sure. Maybe Matthew Stafford will commit more to full vision of the field, spreading the ball around to Marvin Jones, Golden Tate, speedy rookie T.J. Jones, Eric Ebron (if healthy) and elite receiving back, Theo Riddick. They also hope RB Ameer Abdullah will show a little more this season as well.
Of course this defense is led by the monster known as "Ziggy" Ansah. Don't get on his bad side. Detroit also has quality defenders like Haloti Ngata, CB Darius Slay, FS Glover Quin and returning LB DeAndre Levy. If healthy, Levy is one of my favorite linebackers in the league, up there with Telvin Smith of the Jags and Malcolm Smith of the Raiders.
Again, this is another squad with a very easy schedule.
2. Minnesota Vikings (9-7): Blair Walsh. Whyyyyy, Blair Walsh? I'm far from a Vikings fan in any way, shape or form, but how could you not feel bad for their die-hard fans? What a travesty that was. What could have been...
Now -- like the Redskins in the NFC East -- because they finished 1st in their division last season, the Vikings wind up with a more difficult schedule than their division rivals. It isn't one of the hardest schedules in the league, but it could definitely be the difference between Minnesota and Green Bay. We know they're close to begin with.
Rookie WR Laquon Treadwell will hopefully complement WR1 Stefon Diggs well, but there isn't much else to report. HC Mike Zimmer, one of the best in the game, likes his team. He has confidence in this group, but this season they have targets on their backs. Can't fly under the radar this time around. I'm not sure 9 wins will be enough.
1. Green Bay Packers (12-4): Jordy Nelson is back, Eddie Lacy is in shape and they have the easiest schedule in the NFL? Shiiiiiiiiit. Need I say more?
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-10): Jameis Winston, Doug Martin and Mike Evans usually get a sizable portion of this team's press, but Tampa Bay's super talented defense is actually its strength. The Bucs have 6 top tier defenders in DT Gerald McCoy, LBs Lavonte David, Daryl Smith and Kwon Alexander, CB Brent Grimes and DE Robert Ayers.
Now -- like the Redskins in the NFC East -- because they finished 1st in their division last season, the Vikings wind up with a more difficult schedule than their division rivals. It isn't one of the hardest schedules in the league, but it could definitely be the difference between Minnesota and Green Bay. We know they're close to begin with.
Rookie WR Laquon Treadwell will hopefully complement WR1 Stefon Diggs well, but there isn't much else to report. HC Mike Zimmer, one of the best in the game, likes his team. He has confidence in this group, but this season they have targets on their backs. Can't fly under the radar this time around. I'm not sure 9 wins will be enough.
1. Green Bay Packers (12-4): Jordy Nelson is back, Eddie Lacy is in shape and they have the easiest schedule in the NFL? Shiiiiiiiiit. Need I say more?
NFC SOUTH
The Bucs certainly boast one of the most talented defenses in the game, but unfortunately their scheduling makes no sense. Can you explain this to me? How could the Panthers, who went 15-1, have an easier schedule than the Bucs when they are in the same division? Sometimes the NFL just doesn't make sense to me.
So my issues with Tampa are its brutal schedule, turnovers from Winston, an improbable repeat campaign from Martin and the age and ineffectiveness of Vincent Jackson. This club has talent, but it isn't their time yet.
3. Atlanta Falcons (7-9): Did anyone else notice that last year's Falcons had the exact same season as the Broncos when they initially hired Josh McDaniels as their head coach? Atlanta hired Dan Quinn, who had been a successful coordinator for one of the league's elite teams (Seahawks), which is exactly what the Broncos did when they hired McDaniels (Patriots). Both teams proceeded to sprint out to 5-0 records under their new head coaches, then the wheels fell off and they ended up missing the playoffs. Throughout last season I felt the similarities were blatant and quite eerie.
Anyway, I really like the Mohamed Sanu pick-up for Atlanta. This will finally take some of the pressure off Matt Ryan and Julio Jones. Sanu's hands can be shaky at times, but he has no problem getting separation and uses his size and athleticism quite well. This offense is talented, but their defense gets torched and they have the most difficult schedule of all.
2. New Orleans Saints (9-7): This could be the last hurrah for Drew Brees. He finished with strong stats again last season, but in the past two years he hasn't played well in meaningful games nor at meaningful moments in close games. That was the difference in the past -- he was able to carry this organization to victory when the going got tough. Now he's older, his arm is weaker and he fails to dominate against better competition.
However, expectations are much lower this season. I like that. New Orleans' offensive core of Brees, Mark Ingram, Brandin Cooks, Willie Snead, Michael Thomas and the newly-acquired Coby Fleener is strong. With the exception of Brees, they aren't huge names, and I like that as well. Cooks finally started to make good on the excessive hype last year, Ingram is steady, Snead came out of nowhere to be solid and Fleener looks like a perfect fit on paper. Brees needs a makeshift Jimmy Graham, and he should have one now.
But New Orleans comes in with the 4th hardest schedule, and we know its defense always gets lit up. That's why I have to cap them at 9 wins. They'll be a bit of an overachiever, though.
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1. Carolina Panthers (12-4): As I detailed before, Josh Norman is a biiiig loss. This talented team will survive it, but there's no way they're winning 14 or 15 games this season. I was actually leaning closer to 11, but my faith in Cam Newton squeaked out an extra victory.
Cam just has that "It" factor. He's cocky, determined and shows serious improvement year over year. He has the drive and relentlessness necessary to carry this offense once again, and the return of Kelvin Benjamin should help as a clear upgrade over departed vet Jerricho Cotchery.
Carolina's defensive backfield will stumble sans Norman, but its defense still possesses the all-world linebacker tandem of Luke Kuechly and Thomas Davis. The Panthers will be a Super Bowl contender once again; last season left Cam with a bad taste in his mouth. He'll have extra motivation.
NFC WEST
4. San Francisco 49ers (3-13): Chip Kelly, a quarterback controversy between Blaine Gabbert and Colin Kaepernick, and they're tied for the hardest schedule in the NFL. Honestly, I feel like this one is self-explanatory.
3. Los Angeles Rams (7-9): During an episode of this season's Hard Knocks, head coach Jeff Fisher sternly told his players, "I'm not fucking going 7 and 9."
Umm, Jeff, I'm gonna have to beg to differ there. This has all the makings of another 7-9 campaign for the Rams.
No. 1 overall pick Jared Goff doesn't appear ready to steal away the starting job, and Case Keenum is a 7-9 kinda guy. During Los Angeles' preseason opener, broadcaster and former Super Bowl champion head coach Jon Gruden rightfully asked, "Who are these quarterbacks going to throw to?"
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If you've followed my NFL writing over the years, you likely know that I HATE teams that skimp out on their receiving corps. YOUR WIDE RECEIVERS HAVE TO GET CONSISTENT SEPARATION FOR YOUR TEAM TO BE SUCCESSFUL. For example, look at Tom Brady's Patriots and Cam Newton's Panthers against the Broncos vaunted defense in the postseason. Denver got pressure, New England and Carolina's receivers couldn't get separation from Harris and Talib, and two of the top three players in the world subsequently looked like back-up quarterbacks playing against first teamers.
You HAVE to get separation. It's that simple. And washed up Kenny Britt ain't getting separation for the Rams.
2. Arizona Cardinals (10-6): You'll never win a Super Bowl with gutless Carson Palmer under center -- as we saw once again, convincingly, during his excruciatingly embarrassing playoff debacle against the Panthers -- but I doubted Bruce Arians in the regular season last year and he burned me. Out of respect for Arians' impressive football acumen, I'm tossing 10 wins to the Cards. They do have to worry about health at the wide receiver position, though. Larry Fitzgerald, John Brown, Michael Floyd...you know the deal.
Arizona also added defensive stud Chandler Jones.
But let me just go back to Palmer for a second here, because it makes me happy. I've always argued with people who have defended Palmer over the years. My response was always something like, "I was salivating before my Jets played him in the playoffs (when he was a Bengal), and he always proved me right." Palmer is the typical guy who pads his stats during the regular season, then blatantly chokes under playoff pressure. There's nothing else to it. He's a loser. He crumbles mentally and physically under pressure, unlike proven playoff QBs Brady, Rodgers, Ben, Eli, Brees, Flacco and the next man up, Russell Wilson.
1. Seattle Seahawks (11-5): I'm such a Russell Wilson guy, and with the exception of one horrific playcall in the Super Bowl, he has always proven me right. Here are the facts: He plays behind one of the absolute worst offensive lines in the world, constantly scrambling for his life while looking for his No. 1 receiver, Doug Baldwin.
Yup. Doug Baldwin is his No. 1 receiver. Now, I actually happen to like him because he's tough, scrappy and makes some timely plays, but we all know the difference between Baldwin and a real No. 1 receiver. Antonio Brown, Odell Beckham, DeAndre Hopkins and Brandon Marshall are REAL No. 1 receivers. You see the difference.
So the point is that Wilson's offensive circumstances are far from ideal, and yet he continues to amaze by showcasing drastic improvement. He maintains a positive attitude, never gets down on his teammates, scrambles when he needs to, makes beautiful window throws when he needs to and is simply an all-around superstar. Clearly, I could talk the kid up for days.
Anyway, this is an experienced team that should do just fine this season. If Jimmy Graham can get healthy, I think we'll see improvement in his production as well.
PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS
AFC Playoff teams: 1. Broncos 2. Jaguars 3. Jets 4. Bengals 5. Raiders 6. Patriots
NFC Playoff teams: 1. Packers 2. Panthers 3. Seahawks 4. Giants 5. Redskins 6. Cardinals
AFC Wild Card Weekend: Jets over Patriots and Raiders over Bengals
NFC Wild Card Weekend: Seahawks over Cardinals and Giants over Redskins
AFC Semis: Broncos over Raiders and Jets over Jaguars
NFC Semis: Packers over Giants and Panthers over Seahawks
AFC Championship: Jets over Broncos, 24-20
NFC Championship: Panthers over Packers, 34-31
SUPER BOWL 51
CAROLINA PANTHERS OVER NEW YORK JETS, 31-20.
Looks like it's going to be a heartbreaking season for me. Bring on the harsh comments about these predictions!
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