Super Bowl XLVIII: Johnny Fro Predicts the Winner of The Big Game

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The premier offensive team in the NFL, the Denver Broncos, will clash with the premier defensive team, the Seattle Seahawks, in America's most-watched and scrutinized yearly sporting event.

This is almost too good to be true for NFL marketing executives, right? David Stern got Heat/Spurs in last season's NBA Finals, another dream match-up...I'm starting to doubt the validity of these perfect storms. Anyway, lemme break down the Big Game for ya...

Section 1: "Comparative Shellshock"

Wait, you've never heard of Comparative Shellshock?

That's probably because I recently made it up. Comparative Shellshock is a sports/competition theory I've been mulling over throughout the season, which basically postulates the following: 

When an offense plays against two (or three or four, etc.) weak defensive teams in a row, it's extremely difficult to prepare for the speed, strength and skill of a top-tier defensive unit like the Seahawks, 49ers or Panthers. 

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The same goes for a defense. When a defense has to stop the Jaguars and Jets for a couple weeks, it becomes awfully difficult to simulate the advanced offensive play of the Broncos, Patriots or Packers (with Aaron Rodgers, of course). 

That being said, the Broncos are going to suffer through more severe Comparative Shellshock than the Seahawks in the Super Bowl.

Here's why: in the postseason, the Broncos offense has faced the Chargers and Patriots, arguably the worst two defensive teams in the playoffs. Now they have to face the Seahawks, the best defense in the game? It's impossible to simulate that game speed in practice. Peyton Manning and the boys are going to have to make some serious adjustments relative to the competition. 

Offensively, the Seahawks had to play against the 49ers in the NFC Championship, the second-best defensive team in the NFL. Now they'll face the Broncos defense sans Von Miller and Chris Harris, their best overall defensive player and best corner? No Comparative Shellshock there. It will be much easier for the Seahawks offense to move the ball against the Broncos than it was against the 49ers (unless the weather conditions are THAT bad. Then anything is possible). 

So, Section 1 goes to the Seahawks. 

Section 2: Vegas Knows.

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I know many people who simply refuse to believe this, but...Vegas knows. Trust me. They do. Just accept it and your sports-viewing life will be easier. 

With that in mind, the very first line for the Super Bowl was Seahawks -2. That means Vegas thinks the Seahawks are going to win the game straight up. But, as the legendary Alonzo Harris of "Training Day" said, "Shit gets deeper."

After opening at Seahawks -2, the line quickly moved to Broncos -2.5 (in less than 48 hours). So what does this rapid line movement tell us?

Not surprisingly, The Public likes the Broncos in the Super Bowl. The Public always likes big names (Peyton Manning) and high-octane offenses. But remember, Vegas still likes the Seahawks. How do we know? Because Seattle's line stopped at +2.5 and didn't go all the way to +3. Vegas knows they can split the action at +3, but they are staying at +2.5 to entice The Public to pound the Broncos. If you are loading up on the Broncos, this is what Vegas wants you to do. Don't fall for the Broncos at -2.5. Fun fact: The Public has lost in 21 out of the last 23 Super Bowls. See? Vegas knows. 

So clearly, Section 2 also goes to the Seahawks. 

Section 3: Which Team Is Actually Better?

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So clearly I'm buying half a point and taking the Seahawks at +3 because of Vegas and Comparative Shellshock. 

However, I do believe the Broncos are the best team in football. I don't think any of us have ever seen a passing attack as precise, consistent and explosive as this. Peyton Manning at the helm, the greatest statistical quarterback in the history of the game, with weapons like Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker, Wes Welker and Julius Thomas. How the hell do you match up with this team?

The answer is...you don't. Luckily for Pete Carroll and the Seahawks D, the Super Bowl weather conditions are expected to be conducive to "ground-and-pound," grind-it-out football. The Broncos will be effective with their quick, short passing game and Peyton's uncanny knowledge at the line, but the Seahawks will certainly run the ball better with Marshawn Lynch in full Beast Mode. 

This is going to be a close game. Don't ask me why, but I'm pretty confident the Seahawks will score a defensive touchdown in this one. 

All things considered (especially Vegas)...I'm going 27-24, Seattle Seahawks over the Denver Broncos. 

Good luck, everyone.