Saturday, December 7, 2013

Looking Ahead to the 2014 Mets: Is Curtis Granderson Really the Solution?

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Curtis Granderson is a good guy. Probably one of the nicest guys in baseball, and perhaps in all of professional sports. So what's the bad news about Sandy Alderson signing him to a four-year, $60 million contract?

Well, he's just not that great of a ballplayer. 

"Grandy" is currently 32 years old, and past his prime as a baserunner. In the last four seasons, he's stolen over 20 bases only once (25 in 2011 with the Yankees) and has just 18 in his last 221 games. Defensively, his range is obviously not what it used to be in his days as a Detroit Tiger, and his arm strength has always been well below average. 

But the Mets didn't sign him for his baserunning or defense, you say?

I suppose there is some merit to that, but it's not like Granderson is an exceptional offensive performer. Here are his strikeout totals from 2006-2012: 174 (most in the AL), 141, 111, 141, 116, 169 and 195. Notice the alarming jump from 2010 to 2012. He also struck out 16 times in 30 at bats in the 2012 postseason. 

Sixteen strikeouts in 30 at bats. Sure it's a small sample size, but if that doesn't concern you as a Mets fan, I don't know what will. I'm a Mets fan, and it sure as hell concerns me. So what's the good news, if any?

Well, he's definitely better than what we had in the outfield. Grandy's home run production has increased during the second half of his major league career, crushing 30, 24, 41 and 43 from 2009 to 2012. Hopefully his offensive production with the Mets will be assisted by the presence of David Wright and...um...I don't really know who else. 

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Let's take a look at our projected lineup as of December 7, 2013:

1. Eric Young-LF
2. Daniel Murphy-2B
3. David Wright-3B
4. Curtis Granderson-RF
5. Lucas Duda-1B
6. Chris Young-CF
7. Travis d'Arnaud-C
8. Ruben Tejada-SS

I mean, it's not the worst thing I've ever seen, but it doesn't exactly get me excited about our offensive possibilities for the 2014 season. There are also other factors to consider:

*Eric Young may end up playing second base because Alderson is open to trading Murphy. 

*Alderson says Chris Young is competing with Juan Lagares for the starting job in center field.

*Ike Davis isn't gone yet. I suppose, if he doesn't get traded, that he will have the opportunity to beat out Duda. Then there's also Josh Satin, who is a better pure hitter than both Duda and Ike. I don't really know where he fits in. 

*Just my opinion...I think we'd be better off with EY at second and Murphy at first. I don't like Duda or Ike. Then we could play Grandy, Young and Lagares in the outfield or sign one more major league ready outfielder to play alongside Chris Young and Grandy. 

*3B Wilmer Flores and OF Matt den Dekker are highly-regarded organizational pieces. We'll have to wait and see what their roles will be, provided they make the big league club out of spring training. 

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On to the pitching staff...

SP1-Jon Niese
SP2-Dillon Gee
SP3-Zack Wheeler
SP4-Jenrry Mejia
SP5-Carlos Torres

Mejia should squeak in there if healthy, but I hope Torres ends up in the bullpen by the time the regular season starts. There are still a number of intriguing starting pitchers available via free agency, including Bartolo Colon, Matt Garza, Bronson Arroyo, Ervin Santana, A.J. Burnett (considering retirement), Erik Bedard, Chris Capuano, Gavin Floyd, Roy Halladay, Jason Hammel, Paul Maholm and Clayton Richard

I would take any one of those guys over Torres as a starting pitcher. Hopefully Alderson pulls the trigger on someone in that group. Bullpen:

Closer-Bobby Parnell
RP-Scott Rice (L)
RP-Vic Black
RP-Gonzalez Germen
RP-Josh Edgin (L)
RP-Jeurys Familia
RP-TBD (frontrunner is likely Jeff Walters, former AA closer)

I mean, you look at that list and you know there are multiple question marks. I guess we have to cross our fingers and hope for the best with that group. 

Remaining interesting free agents:  Luis Ayala, Grant Balfour, Joaquin Benoit, Rafael Betancourt, Joba Chamberlain, Jesse Crain, Octavio Dotel, Kyle Farnsworth, Jason Frasor, Mike Gonzalez, Kevin Gregg, Joel Hanrahan, Carlos Marmol, Peter Moylan, Fernando Rodney and Jose Veras

Same idea here; I'd pretty much take any one of those guys over Familia and/or our mystery 7th man. Anyway, I'm heading out to dinner. Feel free to comment. 

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