Demolishing ESPN's NBA Rank Part III: Kyrie Isn't In the Top 20??

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Welcome back for Round 3 of my systematic destruction of ESPN's laughable "NBARank." If you missed out on the fun of Volumes 1 and 2, I encourage to go back and catch up. 

While ESPN had some real head-scratchers from players 100 down to 51, it only gets worse on the second half of their list. Let's get right into it...

1. Steven Adams (#46) is better than Goran Dragic (#47)?

I don't want to beat a dead horse, but we're in the same old situation here: Major outlets like ESPN and Sports Illustrated tend to severely overvalue role players. And, that's exactly what Steven Adams is. Adams averages 7.5 PPG and 6.4 RPG for his career. The only reason he gets so much love is because Russell Westbrook is a marquee name; therefore, Adams gets a lot of exposure during nationally-televised games. 

On the other hand, Dragic -- who averaged 20.3 points, 5.8 assists and nearly 4 rebounds per game out of the point guard position last year -- along with Hassan Whiteside and Dion Waiters (who ESPN also undervalues), nearly carried Erik Spoelstra's surprising Heat to a playoff spot. "The Dragon" has been an all-star caliber floor general for quite some time now, and he's the type of guy who can carry a struggling team when necessary. 

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Is Adams a solid role player? Sure. He's big, tough, coordinated and finishes nicely at the cup. He's a useful, physical presence. But Dragic is an effective standalone player. He doesn't need Westbrook to spoon feed him. He feeds himself, and his teammates. 

Johnny Fro's Rankings: Adams (81) and Dragic (35)

2. Jae Crowder (#38) is better than DeMar DeRozan (#39)?

Don't get me wrong -- Jae Crowder is a solid all-around NBA basketball player. He exerts effort defensively, always works hard to improve his offensive game and provides consistent, positive energy on both ends of the floor. 

But, this one is a no-contest. DeMar DeRozan averaged more points per game (27.3) than LeBron James, Kawhi Leonard, Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant, while shooting 46.7% from the floor. DeRozan's quietly a star player. He always leads his Raptors to the postseason. Crowder averaged 13.9 PPG on 46.3% shooting. 'Nuff said. 

Johnny Fro's Rankings: Crowder (53) and DeRozan (14)

3. DeAndre Jordan (#30) is better than Isaiah Thomas (#33)???

The Suns wouldn't trade Tyson Chandler (and a pick) for DeAndre Jordan. The Suns. The same Suns who won 24 games last year, and 23 the season before that. If DeAndre is such a superstar, why couldn't the Clippers find any takers?

I'm going to answer my own question:

1. Today's NBA is all about floor spacing, stretching the floor, opening up drive-and-kick lanes and knocking down threes. DeAndre Jordan doesn't help your team in any of those ways. 

2. For two consecutive postseasons, Doc Rivers' Clippers desperately needed DeAndre to step into a prominent production role. Two years ago, against Damian Lillard and the Blazers, both Chris Paul and Blake Griffin went down. Last season, Griffin went down again, and CP3 nearly beat a very good Jazz team by himself. 

In both instances, DeAndre was unable to step up and help the Clippers get out of the first round. That's because he's a limited player. His true impact is mostly smoke and mirrors. 

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3. Most teams are wise to the fact that Jordan's offensive stats (12.7 PPG, 71.4% FG) were entirely dependent on CP3's world-class skills at the point. Talk about being fed by a silver spoon. 

Isaiah Thomas, on the other hand, averaged 28.9 PPG (a career high) on 46.3% shooting (also a career high). He was third in the league in scoring, behind only Westbrook and James Harden. He finished 5th in the MVP voting. Where did DeAndre finish?

Come on, this ranking is a joke. Absolutely pathetic, ESPN. 

Johnny Fro's Rankings: Jordan (45, I commend his durability) and Thomas (10)

4. Kyrie Irving is #25????

That's just plain insulting. Kyrie Irving is one of the most gifted offensive basketball players in the entire universe. He's a Game 7 NBA Finals hero. He's a top-10 player (at worst, top 15, if you want to play Devil's advocate). I'll get into the players who are inexplicably ranked ahead of him in my 4th-and-final installment of this series. 

Thank you all for reading, as always. Have a wonderful weekend. 

2017 ALDS Prediction: Can the Yankees Stun the White-Hot Indians?

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It's a crying shame when two legitimate World Series contenders meet in the opening round of the postseason. 

Joe Girardi's Yankees -- fresh off their high-octane 8-4 victory over the upstart Twins in the AL Wild Card Game -- will have deadline acquisition Sonny Gray on the hill for Game 1 of the ALDS, where he'll be opposed by Trevor Bauer and the rest of Terry "Tito" Francona's record-setting Indians. 

Many are surprised by Tito's decision to go with Bauer in Game 1, as opposed to marquee name and playoff stud Corey Kluber, but Bauer is the classic "hot hand." After an absolutely atrocious first third of the season, Bauer has progressively improved to the point where an ERA over 6.00 dropped all the way down to 4.19 (second-best of his enigmatic career). Bauer has wipeout stuff; he struck out 196 batters in 176.1 innings this year. 

In addition, pitching Kluber in Game 2 lines him up for a do-or-die Game 5 start, if necessary. 

On the other side, I remember Gray's only two starts in the postseason. As a rookie back in 2013, he was fantastic in the ALDS against Miguel Cabrera and the Tigers' formidable offense. Gray surrendered just three runs in 13 innings of work, striking out 12 in the process. 

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The main difference now -- other than the change of uniform -- is that his fastball isn't quite as explosive as it was then. Regardless, the pure adrenaline should help, and we know Gray was poised last time around. 

Offensively, we got a good look at the Yankees' potent offense Tuesday night, and we know they'll be relying on Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, Didi Gregorius, Brett Gardner and Starlin Castro for production and timely hitting in this series.

So let's divert our attention to the Indians for a bit. 2B Jose Ramirez is one of the least-discussed stars in the four major sports. Sometimes overshadowed by big, flashy names like Francisco Lindor and Edwin Encarnacion, Ramirez quietly received some votes for AL MVP in 2016. He followed up that breakout campaign by hitting .318 this season and leading the league with 56 doubles. He also showcased his power/speed versatility by mashing 29 homers and swiping 17 bags. Don't forget the fact that he can capably play second base, third base and shortstop. 

So, Ramirez, Lindor and Encarnacion will be players to watch, and they'll look for offensive assistance from vets Carlos Santana, Jason Kipnis and Jay Bruce (I miss you, Jay!). Speaking of Kipnis, keep an eye on his conversion to center field. His lack of experience at that position could come back to haunt the Indians in tight defensive spots. 

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Back on the mound, I think the starting rotations are close to a wash. Kluber is the best SP in the series, but Josh Tomlin -- the worst SP in the series -- is lightly penciled in for Game 4, if necessary. If we get to Game 4, the positive for the Indians is that Luis Severino doesn't seem ready for the bright lights. Game 4 would likely come down to the bullpens. 

Speaking of the bullpens, both the Yankees and Indians are STACKED in that department. As we saw in the Wild Card game, Girardi goes to Brian Cashman's pen and brings out one quality arm after another. Leading up to elite closer Aroldis Chapman, the Yanks boast Dellin Betances, Chad Green, Tommy Kahnle and David Robertson. You could make a legitimate argument that all five of those guys should be closers in the bigs. Lights out stuff.

The Indians ain't too shabby either, with Andrew Miller -- the most valuable and versatile reliever in the world over the long haul of the past four seasons -- leading the way, accompanied by Cody Allen, Bryan Shaw and oft-converted starter Danny Salazar. These guys also have outstanding stuff. 

JOHNNY FRO'S COMMON SENSE BREAKDOWN

Why overthink this? Let's make it nice and easy...

1. Offenses: Both are strong with the potential to explode. 

2. Starting Pitching: Both are solid, but not dominant. 

3. Bullpens: Both are elite. 

4. Defense: Negligible, though Kipnis in CF worries me. 

5. Managers: Possibly the top two in the game. 

5 REASONS WHY I'M TAKING THE INDIANS TO WIN IN 5

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1. I don't like the fact that the Yankees pen is coming into the series overworked. In the Wild Card Game, Green threw 2 innings and 41 pitches. Robertson 3 1/3 innings and 52 pitches! Kahnle 2 1/3 innings and 29 pitches. That means we'll be seeing Betances early in the series, and he hasn't been able to find the plate. 

2. Cleveland's collective experience from last year's postseason run. Helps in pressure spots. 

3. Indians will pitch the Yankees' free swingers carefully and effectively. That means Sanchez, Castro and Todd Frazier. 

4. The Indians are in Chapman's head. They shook him in the World Series. 

5. These Indians won 22 games in a row. They know how to squeeze out tight wins. 

And yet, in the end, anyone who tells you they have a crystal ball for this series is full of...well...you know. The Indians and Yankees are both World Series contenders. Now, let's play ball!!

Demolishing ESPN's NBA Rank, Part II: Covington Is Better Than Melo, Booker & Wiggins???

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When ESPN released this year's "NBARank," my good friend and sports junkie Mark "HD" Rue said, "They do this on purpose."

And what exactly did he mean by that?

Well, let's just say that some of these rankings are meant to get a rise out of people. Despite knowing that, I still have the intense desire to right some of ESPN's egregious wrongs. If you missed Volume I of my systematic destruction, feel free to check it out here. Let's get right into Volume II...

1. Tristan Thompson is #72???

There was a time when I respected Tristan Thompson as an NBA player. When he was younger, hungrier and actually tried, I thought he was a very useful role player. Once he held out and signed that 5-year, $82 million contract, everything changed. He's been doggin' it ever since, AND he's dating a Kardashian. That's the NBA kiss of death. 

Tristan averaged just 8.1 PPG last season; not to mention the fact that he disappeared from the face of the earth in the NBA Finals. He simply isn't a hungry player anymore. Again, you can check out Volume I of my attack on ESPN's NBARank to see some players I rank significantly higher than him. Here are a handful of quick examples of better, more impactful players: Dennis Schroder, Lou Williams, Dion Waiters and Jeff Teague. 

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Johnny Fro's Rankings: Teague (54) and Thompson (unranked). 

2. Danny Green (#59) is better than Devin Booker (#60) and Carmelo Anthony (#64)?

This is the central problem I always seem to have with these competing lists: ESPN, Sports Illustrated and the like consistently rank replaceable role players above offensive focal points. 

Danny Green has hit a helluva lot of clutch playoff threes for the Spurs, and I wholeheartedly respect him for that. But here's the reality of the situation: Carmelo Anthony has scored 62 points in an NBA game. Devin Booker has scored SEVENTY points in an NBA game. 

Plain and simple, does Green have that kind of potential? Does his game have that kind of scoring versatility and explosiveness?

Of course it doesn't. The reality is that Booker and Melo can carry your offense if needed, while Green is a 3-and-D, floor spacing role player. Electric scorers and role players aren't on the same level. 

Johnny Fro's Rankings: Melo (34), Booker (44) and Green (unranked). 

3. Malcolm Brogdon (#56) is better than Andrew Wiggins (#57)?

I'm not sure people realize that Andrew Wiggins is one of the premier scorers in the NBA. He's still only 22 years old, and has improved his PPG from 16.9 to 20.7 to 23.6 in just three seasons in the league. He can shoot, drive, finish and draw fouls. He's a complete scorer with an arrow pointing up. 

Brogdon, on the other hand, is a nice little sparkplug of a player. He gave Jason Kidd's Bucks a nice lift in his rookie season, but we all know the only reason he won the Rookie of the Year is because Joel Embiid (20.2 points, 7.8 rebounds and 2.5 blocks per game) only took the court in 31 games. Now, I appreciate the fact that Brogdon played in 75 -- durability is always an invaluable commodity -- but the kid averaged 10.2 points and 4.2 assists per game. He didn't set the world on fire. 

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Wiggins clearly has the potential to be a 25-30 PPG scorer, whereas Brogdon is a high-energy role player at the point guard position. We are talking about two different stratospheres, here. 

Johnny Fro's Rankings: Wiggins (32) and Brogdon (91). 

4. Robert Covington is #55???!!!

Come on, people! Seriously?? What is it with this newfound "expert" obsession with the Philadelphia 76ers?

Sure they have plus talent in Embiid, Ben Simmons and Markelle Fultz...but have Simmons or Fultz even played an NBA game yet? And as you can see, I don't include Covington in this "plus" talent pool. 

ROBERT COVINGTON IS BETTER THAN ANDREW WIGGINS, DEVIN BOOKER AND CARMELO ANTHONY???

Clearly, I'm having difficulty getting over this ranking. Covington is a good defender who hits threes. He's a garden variety 3-and-D guy, by today's NBA standards. He averaged 12.9 PPG last season while shooting a pathetic 39.9% from the floor! I can't. My blood pressure is escalating to an unsafe level. Why must you do this to me, ESPN??!

And don't get me wrong, every NBA team needs solid role players. Guys who know their limitations and will enhance the production of their team's go-to guys. But, here's the bit of logic missing from ESPN and SI's ranking systems: The role players are useless without the go-to guys! Useless. If you had a team of 5 limited role players, you'd be the lowest scoring team in the NBA and you might be competitive against a top D-League team. 

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That's just the nature of basketball -- you need talented penetrators and scorers for your club to have any success. Covington and Patrick Patterson can stand in the corner all they want; their occasional threes are meaningless without guys like Wiggins, Booker and Melo facilitating offense throughout the flow of a long, 48-minute NBA game. Of course the superior versions of guys like Wiggins, Booker and Melo are LeBron James, Russell Westbrook and James Harden; but you get the idea. 

Johnny Fro's Ranking: Covington (unranked, clearly)

All right, I gotta call it quits on this one before I get too worked up. Look out for Volume III of my attack in the coming weeks. 

Demolishing ESPN's NBA Rank, Part I: Patrick Patterson is Better Than Dirk Nowitzki?

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Lonzo Ball is already better than Carmelo Anthony?

Well, according to ESPN's latest #NBArank, apparently he is. They can lean on semantics to cover themselves -- "We asked our expert panel, 'which player will be better in 2017-18?'" -- but when you're predicting the future, it's awfully hard to be held accountable. That's my job. It's time to hold ESPN's "experts" accountable for these head-scratching rankings. 

They roll out their rankings in segments, so this edition will be dedicated to players 100 down to 76. 

1. Derrick Favors (#94) is better than Dennis Schroder (#96), Dirk Nowitzki (#97) and Dion Waiters (#98)?

I had the same problem with Favors prior to last season, when Sports Illustrated ranked him 28th in the world, ahead of DeMar DeRozan, Isaiah Thomas and Kemba Walker, among other legitimate offensive studs. 

So what is it about Favors that attracts these major outlets like ESPN and Sports Illustrated? 

Well, last season he only managed to make it onto the court for 50 games. The year before he only played 62. So obviously, it's not his durability. On the stat sheet, he averaged a whopping 9.5 points per game in 2016-17. 

I mean, don't get me wrong, Favors is a decent two-way role player, but Schroder is the alpha dog of his team. The latter is the Hawks' go-to guy, with PPG improving from 10.0 to 11.0 to 17.9 over the last three seasons. Schroder's FG% also improved from 42.1 to 45.1.

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Then we have Nowitzki, who is undoubtedly a first-ballot Hall of Famer. There's no question that his incredible career is nearing its end, but he still averaged 14.2 PPG to Favors' 9.5, while connecting on roughly 38 percent of his three-point attempts. As we know, Favors doesn't offer that kind of range offensively.

Waiters has always been one of the most gifted one-on-one scorers in the NBA. He's a bit of a wild man, and past organizations have found that off-putting, but Pat Riley embraced him from the get go. When you allow a talented player to settle into his comfort zone, that's when you get a return like this: 15.8 PPG (2nd best of Waiters' career), 4.3 APG (best), 3.3 RPG (best), 39.5% on threes (best) and 42.4% from the floor (2nd best).

Waiters is set for another highly-productive year, while Favors is nothing but a glorified role player.

Johnny Fro's Rankings: Schroder (51), Waiters (68), Nowitzki (77) and Favors (unranked). 

2. Gorgui Dieng (#77) is better than Markieff Morris (#79), Lou Williams (#81) and Greg Monroe (#82)?

I felt Gorgui Dieng was an underrated prospect heading into the 2013 NBA Draft -- he found a nice role within Rick Pitino's pro-caliber offense at Louisville, knocking down clutch mid-range jumpers, playing smart, conservative offensive basketball and making an impact as a rebounder and rim protector. I thought he showed nice polish for a player who was often referred to as "raw." 

He ended up going 21st to the Jazz -- before being dealt to the Wolves -- after limited players like Anthony Bennett, Shane Larkin and Tony Snell. It's funny...I thought Dieng was a far superior player to Bennett, and the latter somehow ended up going 1st overall. Still a shocking head-scratcher to this day. 

But now, in the NBA, Dieng is pretty much what he was then -- a nice role player. Last season he averaged 10 points, 7.9 rebounds, 1.9 assists and 1.2 blocks per game. If you look closely at the numbers, you will see the following players in the same category as Gorgui: Trevor Booker, Cody Zeller, Mason Plumlee, Robin Lopez, Kenneth Faried, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Nene Hilario. 

And that's pretty much his company, you know? The stats/roles don't lie there. Gorgui is a nice role player, but there are a bunch of guys just like him. He isn't a rare commodity in high demand. 

Markieff Morris, on the other hand, averaged more PPG than Gorgui (14), while shooting 83.7% from the free throw line and drilling 71 three-pointers. Gorgui only hit 16 threes, and we know the league is all about stretch fours these days. Markieff has always been a more naturally gifted player than Gorgui. If not for his disciplinary issues, he was well on his way to becoming an 18-20 point scorer and offensive focal point for the Suns. You don't even have that option with Dieng. He's limited by nature. 

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"Sweet Lou" Williams is a gifted offensive performer like the aforementioned Waiters. Lou Will finished 3rd in the Sixth Man of the Year Award voting last season, after winning that very same award in 2014-15. He's just one of those guys you can give the ball to, and ask him to generate offense from scratch. Last year he had games where he scored 40, 38, 35 and 31 (twice). A talent like that is much harder to find than Dieng. 

Monroe is a fellow big who falls somewhere near Dieng's category, but the former has averaged over 15 PPG in this league 5 times. He's a far more polished scorer than Gorgui, while averaging 8.7 RPG for his career. Dieng is the better defender, but as you can see, I think high-quality offense is far more difficult to find. 

Johnny Fro's Rankings: Williams (64), Morris (70), Monroe (72) and Dieng (unranked). 

3. Patrick Patterson is #76? WTF???

I mean, I don't have to list Schroder, Waiters, Williams, etc. again. You get the idea. Patrick Patterson has no business being ahead of any of those guys. 

Patrick Patterson has been in the NBA for 9 seasons. His CAREER HIGH is 10.4 points per game. The guy averages 7.9 PPG for his career! Come on, man!

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He's 6'9", 230 pounds and averages 4.7 rebounds per game for his career! Come on. Forget the stats. Just watch the guy play. He's a role player who stands in the corner shooting and occasionally making threes. That's essentially the extent of his "game." I mean, this ranking really pisses me off. It shows an utter lack of awareness on the part of ESPN's "experts."

I think preseason lists like these tend to overemphasize players who have changed teams. This is a very clear case of that phenomenon. 

Johnny Fro's Ranking: Patterson (unranked, obviously)

All right, please tune in next time for players 75 down to 51. Should be coming in the next couple weeks. 

Ranking NFL Fantasy Defenses: Are the Ravens Back to Their Dominant Ways of Old?

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Let's take a look at my Week 3 recommendations and rankings for NFL fantasy defenses. Keep in mind, the order is based specifically upon the match-ups for this week; these are not season-long power rankings. 

32. Saints @ Panthers - Current Point Total (Special Teams NOT included): -2...yes, that's a negative. 

The Saints have only been playing one side of the ball for many years now, but they've been particularly awful through two games this season. There are only two bright spots this week: They're not playing on turf -- where opposing skill players are simply too fast and precise for them to defend -- and Cam Newton looked old and beat up in an ugly win over the Bills. 

31. Bears v. Steelers - Current Point Total: 6

The Steelers generally perform well below expectations on the road, but Le'Veon Bell hasn't had his breakout game yet. I think it comes this week. Expect Antonio Brown to rebound after last week, as well. 

30. Texans @ Patriots - Current Point Total: 9

They are 13.5-point underdogs at Gillette Stadium, and rookie Deshaun Watson's expected turnovers against Bill Belichick and Matt Patricia's sophisticated defensive schemes will put Tom Brady and company in prime position to light up the scoreboard. 

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29. Jets v. Dolphins - Current Point Total: 0

Todd Bowles' once-vaunted defensive line has been carved to pieces through two unsurprising losses to the Bills and Raiders. The only potential positives for the Jets are that they will likely cover the spread -- which means the score remain close -- and Jay Cutler can always gift a couple turnovers to you. 

28. Bengals @ Packers - Current Point Total: 11

The Bengals are obviously hoping both Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb will sit out with injuries. It appears that only the latter will oblige them. I expect this game to be a bit of a shootout. 

27. Chargers v. Chiefs - Current Point Total: 11

26. Giants @ Eagles - Current Point Total: 7

25. Raiders @ Redskins - Current Point Total: 11

24. Packers v. Bengals - Current Point Total: 11

Andy Dalton and A.J. Green are absolutely desperate for a victory. This could actually be a make-or-break game for Dalton's enigmatic career. 

23. Redskins v. Raiders - Current Point Total: 19

22. Dolphins @ Jets - Current Point Total: 2 (played only one game)

Cameron Wake, Ndamukong Suh and company are likely the most overrated fantasy defense this week. Yes, there's a chance the Jets will go winless for the season. Yes, their offense is anemic. However, Josh McCown's timing has been surprisingly sharp out of the gate, and the Jets' offensive conservatism doesn't lend itself to a boatload of turnovers. Ultimately, we want explosive plays and turnovers from our fantasy defenses, and Miami's upside isn't as high as conformers think this week. 

21. Cowboys @ Cardinals - Current Point Total: 14

Carson Palmer is like Cutler -- he can always drop some turnovers in your lap. The Cowboys D looked like paper mache against Trevor Siemian's surprising Broncos, but Palmer is the great equalizer. When he's suffering through a bad spell, both mentally and physically, he can boost the point total of any fantasy defense. 

20. Browns @ Colts - Current Point Total: 9

19. Titans v. Seahawks - Current Point Total: 11

Tennessee's defensive personnel may have become a tad overrated, but Seattle's offensive line is downright embarrassing. I don't love the play; but you're not dead in the water if you need to use the Titans. 

18. Colts v. Browns - Current Point Total: 9

DeShone Kizer is a rookie QB dealing with debilitating migraines. Recipe for disaster. 

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17. Chiefs @ Chargers - Current Point Total: 14

Just not the same defense without Eric Berry and Tamba Hali. 

16. Cardinals v. Cowboys - Current Point Total: 18

15. 49ers v. Rams - Current Point Total: 11

Jared Goff is still young and green enough to implode in any given week. Thursday night games are particularly ugly from an offensive standpoint. This game will likely be near impossible to watch. 

14. Lions v. Falcons - Current Point Total: 27 (tied for 3rd best)

Ziggy Ansah, Haloti Ngata, Darius Slay and Glover Quin are all superb defensive players, but Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman scare me every week of the season. Atlanta has too much firepower and determination to place blind faith in your fantasy defense. I'd look elsewhere. 

13. Falcons @ Lions - Current Point Total: 18

Was absolutely blown away by their defensive performance against Aaron Rodgers and his Packers. Of course both Nelson and Cobb got injured during the game, and GB was missing two extremely valuable offensive linemen, but Atlanta's defensive speed was simply mind-numbing. The great Desmond Trufant came away with an electric interception, while Brooks Reed and Adrian Clayborn had Rodgers running for his life. The Vic Beasley injury is devastating, though. 

12. Seahawks @ Titans - Current Point Total: 15

11. Panthers v. Saints - Current Point Total: 25

In a vacuum, the Panthers boast one of the top 5 or 6 fantasy defenses. I'm simply dropping them to 11 here because the Saints are a high-powered offense in desperate need of a win. Drew Brees knows he has to come out guns blazin'. 

10. Patriots v. Texans - Current Point Total: 3

As I said before: Belichick against a rookie QB. Lamb to slaughter. 

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9. Vikings v. Bucs - Current Point Total: 4

Everson Griffen, Linval Joseph, Anthony Barr, Xavier Rhodes and company are downright SCARY at home. Mike Zimmer's vicious D opened up against the Saints and Steelers, making the Vikings an excellent buy-low candidate this week. The only reasons I don't have Minnesota in my top 5 or 6 are because both Barr and Rhodes are questionable. Keep an eye on their statuses; particularly Rhodes, who is one of the top 2 or 3 corners in the game. 

8. Bills v. Broncos - Current Point Total: 19

Arguably the sneakiest, high-quality play of the week. Everyone is high on the Broncos after their Week 2 drubbing of the Cowboys, so the Bills would appear to be a walk in the park. Appearances, of course, can be deceiving. The Bills always find ways to force turnovers at home, and the Broncos might be riding carelessly on their high horses. Spice up your lineup with a little Buffalo sauce. 

7. Jaguars v. Ravens - Current Point Total: 27 (T-3rd)

This game has LETDOWN written all over it for Joe Flacco and the Ravens. Baltimore is currently 2-0 and exceeding early expectations, and Flacco is the type of QB who has been known to underperform in match-ups against "lesser" teams. The Jacksonville D we'll be seeing is the one that sparked fantasy lineups in Week 1. 

6. Broncos @ Bills - Current Point Total: 18

The Bills' run-heavy offense is too vanilla to be effective against Denver's elite D. This is definitely going to be an ugly, low-scoring affair. 

5. Rams @ 49ers - Current Point Total: 30 (2nd)

4. Eagles v. Giants - Current Point Total: 26

The Eagles always get pressure and we know how awful Eli Manning, Brandon Marshall, Paul Perkins and the Giants' offensive line have been. Seems like a perfect storm for Philly's fantasy D. 

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3. Bucs @ Vikings - Current Point Total: 19 (played only one game)

Sure it was against the lowly Bears, but the Bucs clearly established their identity in Week 2 (which for them, was actually Week 1). Dirk Koetter is making a concerted effort to limit Jameis Winston's costly turnovers in the redzone, which means Gerald McCoy, Chris Baker, Robert Ayers, Lavonte David, Kwon Alexander (Q) and Brent Grimes are being asked to make Tampa's D its primary source of victories. If Sam Bradford plays he'll be less than 100 percent, and the brazen Bucs will most certainly smell blood in the water. 

2. Steelers @ Bears - Current Point Total: 26

Yeah, I mean, if you caught any of the Bears' offensive performance last week, I don't really have to add anything to that. If you didn't see it -- well -- they suck. 

1. Ravens @ Jaguars - Current Point Total: 42 (1st)

Terrell Suggs already has 3 sacks. C.J. Mosley has 18 tackles, and Lardarius Webb and Brandon Carr are leading the NFL with 2 interceptions apiece. John Harbaugh has this group believing that its collective mojo is back. Fittingly enough, what's the best way to keep defensive mojo going? Suit up for a game against Blake Bortles. Lock in the Ravens as your #1 fantasy defense this week. 

As always, my sincerest thanks for reading. If you need specific fantasy advice, feel free to tweet me @RedSoxAuthor. Good luck in Week 3!

2017 NFL Preseason Predictions: Which NFC Team Will Choke Against the Pats This Year?

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Ahhhh, Sunday mornings. 

There was a time when worshipers would religiously wake up early, strap on their "Sunday best," enjoy a family breakfast, then stroll on over to the local church. 

Fast forward to 2017, and the routine goes something like this:

Wake up with a smile, put up a glorious pot of coffee, whip out the smartphone, read the latest injury reports, check the weather for your home team's game, set your 4 season-long fantasy lineups, check the Vegas line movements, set your dozens of DFS lineups, then put in your bets. 

The NFL owns Sunday, now. 

So, without further ado, here come my 2017-18 NFL preseason predictions...

** EDITOR'S NOTE: I began writing this piece on Monday, August 14, so some of the information may be slightly dated. I will provide updates where applicable. **

AMERICAN FOOTBALL CONFERENCE

AFC EAST

4. New York Jets (Projected Record: 5-11); Strength of Schedule: T-8th

My Jets have undoubtedly been the laughingstock of the NFL offseason. 

Everyone knows that GM Mike Maccagnan is attempting to tank by cutting ties with big names like Brandon Marshall, Eric Decker, Nick Mangold and Darrelle Revis, as the organization positions itself for its first legitimate franchise quarterback since "Broadway" Joe Namath. The 2018 draft class features stud signal callers like Sam Darnold (USC), Josh Allen (Wyoming) and Lamar Jackson (Louisville), and Maccagnan isn't about to miss the boat. 

Unfortunately, as any true Jet fan will tell you, things never go as planned for Gang Green. So, while I agree with the logic behind Maccagnan's master plan and believe in Darnold's immense talent, something will go wrong and blow the whole plan to smithereens. So what exactly is that something?

The Jets will play too well to be the worst team in the league. Here are some reasons why:

1. Their Vegas over/under is 4.5 wins, and EVERYONE is taking the under. Over the years, one thing has become overtly clear about football wagering: When the Public is heavy on one side, the "sharp" play is usually to go the other way. A quick example of the Public sentiment about the Jets: Colin Cowherd officially predicted that they would go 0-16. 

2. The Jets' defensive line still boasts legit talents in Muhammad Wilkerson, Leonard Williams and Sheldon Richardson; Demario Davis, Darron Lee and Lorenzo Mauldin are good linebackers, and rookie SS Jamal Adams was considered by many to be the best player in the draft, relative to position. This defense may allow New York to win a few ugly, close, low-scoring games. Josh McCown is the right kind of quarterback for those types of games, too. He'll protect the ball and play with veteran moxie. 

3. Opposing teams always seem to take the "worst" team lightly. Coming into the season as the consensus laughingstock can often become an advantage. Football's a game that can be won on fluke fumbles, tipped passes, blocked punts and/or missed field goals, so the ultimate goal is to stay within one score. If you do that, anything can happen. I think against lesser opponents, the Jets can do just that.

4. The Dolphins and Bills are weaker than they initially looked on paper. That's four interesting division games, right there.

In the end, the Jets will end up stuck in the middle because that's the worst place for them -- and their fans -- to be.

3. Buffalo Bills (5-11); Strength of Schedule: 5th

Nothing feels right for the Bills this season. The organization is seemingly always looking for ways to push Tyrod Taylor out the door; star WR Sammy Watkins has been traded to the Rams, where he's joined former WR2 Robert Woods; WR3 Marquise Goodwin is looking sharp for the 49ers and new head coach Sean McDermott is a defensive specialist replacing a mirror in Rex Ryan. 

This organization doesn't feel like it controls its own destiny. They're just kind of floating in the wind like the feather at the end of Forrest Gump. I happen to like Taylor, but with the exception of LeSean McCoy, the weapons simply aren't there. 

A weak division -- with the obvious exception of the Patriots -- and a potentially well-coached defense led by DTs Marcell Dareus and Kyle Williams, MLB Preston Brown and CB Tre'Davious White are the only things getting this club to 5 wins. 

2. Miami Dolphins (8-8); Strength of Schedule: 6th

Man, I really feel badly about Ryan Tannehill -- what a crying shame. The questionable QB who always seemed destined for the "bust" label finally found what he needed in head coach Adam Gase, and of course he goes down without taking a regular-season snap in year two. Football is f'n unfair. 

Gase did a fantastic job transitioning the Phins from the dead-end Joe Philbin era to immediate playoff relevancy in the AFC. This team has a significant amount of offensive talent at the skill positions with RB Jay Ajayi, WRs Jarvis Landry, DeVante Parker and Kenny Stills, and newly-acquired TE Julius Thomas, and Gase absolutely knows how to use it. 

The bad news is he and GM Chris Grier have decided to put their faith in one of the NFL's biggest losers, underachiever Jay Cutler. He had finally reached his ultimate goal -- drinking beer on his couch with a ridiculous pile of money -- when his wife crushed his lofty dream of retirement. Cutler doesn't wanna play. He doesn't care. He never has. 

On the bright side, when Cutler inevitably flops, Gase can turn to the polar opposite in inspirational veteran Matt Moore. The latter is a career-long class act who plays well and motivates his teammates whenever the opportunity befalls him. I've always felt he could start for around a dozen teams. 

At the end of the day, the Tannehill injury stings, Cutler costs you a few games early, and you end up somewhere around 8-8. 

1. New England Patriots (14-2); Strength of Schedule: 12th

The Jets, Bills, Dolphins and Patriots are in the same division, right? 

The Patriots just won the Super Bowl again, right?

The Jets and Bills were shitty last season, right?

So explain this to me...why do the Patriots have an easier schedule than the Jets, Bills and Dolphins?

Clown commish Roger Goodell probably still feels badly about the 4-game Tom Brady suspension. What a joke. The good fortune never runs out for this franchise (official jinx, right there). 

Anyyyway, do I really have to write much here? Bill Belichick is the best head coach in the history of professional sports. Brady is one of the greatest professional athletes of all time, and they've added WR Brandin Cooks, who is one of the quickest and fastest players in the entire NFL. You know the deal. It is what it is.

UPDATE: Julian Edelman is out for the season, but in the end it won't matter much. Chris Hogan, Danny Amendola and Malcolm Mitchell will be asked to pick up some of his slack. 

AFC NORTH

4. Cleveland Browns (4-12); Strength of Schedule: T-21st

It's never promising when you head into a season with a three-way quarterback battle. I kind of think Brock Osweiler got a raw deal in Houston (though his ceiling is maybe the 25th best QB in the league), but he's not going to propel this Cleveland franchise to greatness; Cody Kessler is a nice little player, but his upside is also quite limited, and rookie DeShone Kizer simply isn't ready yet. 

We can bullshit all you want about other positions, but success in the NFL boils down to the man taking the snaps. Just look at the Final Four last season: Falcons (Matt Ryan), Packers (Aaron Rodgers), Patriots (Brady) and Steelers (Ben Roethlisberger). You could easily make an argument that those are the top 4 quarterbacks in the world. 

So, yeah, the Browns are inherently limited. I like the offensive talent in Isaiah Crowell, Duke Johnson, Kenny Britt, Corey Coleman and David Njoku, but none of these QBs can extract max performance from this core of skill players. 

Defensively, the Browns are looking for an immediate boost from dynamic pass rusher Myles Garrett, but their overall talent pool is limited. Also, Hue Jackson is just a god awful coach. I mean, just atrocious. Really, really bad. The Pats have Brady and Belichick. The Browns have 3 stooges and Hue Jackson. Umm, yeah.

UPDATE: Kizer has won the starting job. That doesn't change my projected win total. 

3. Baltimore Ravens (8-8); Strength of Schedule: 24th

Jeremy Maclin and Danny Woodhead are very solid NFL players -- but am I the only one who feels like the Ravens always acquire guys slightly after their physical primes? Generally speaking, that's not the best organizational philosophy. 

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Frankly, I'm concerned about Joe Flacco's back, but this team will hang around the .500 mark. John Harbaugh is one of the best in the business; this club just has a low ceiling. 

2. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6); Strength of Schedule: T-27th

Every year I seem to question the stability of the Steelers, but I'm not going to fall into that trap this season. Ben Roethlisberger appears to be a couple hits away from the end of his career; Le'Veon Bell is always injured, suspended or holding out; Martavis Bryant is always smoking weed and their back-up QB situation sucks, but Mike Tomlin and Todd Haley just get it done. These dudes can coach. 

Defensively, the unit-formerly-known-as "The Steel Curtain" has shown improvement the past couple seasons, and T.J. Watt, Cameron Sutton, Tyson Alualu and Coty Sensabaugh have joined the fray this year. 

I've come to accept that this squad will be there come playoff time. I tip my cap to consistency. 

1. Cincinnati Bengals (11-5); Strength of Schedule: 29th

I love when nobody's talkin' about a particular team. The Browns had an intriguing offseason. The Ravens added some familiar faces. The Le'Veon Bell Saga "steels" the Pittsburgh headlines. No one seems to care about the Bengals, and that is most certainly a good thing for them. 

It's very simple for Cincy: They'll pile up a double-digit win total if the three-headed monster of Andy Dalton, A.J. Green and Tyler Eifert stays healthy. 

I've never been a fan of Marvin Lewis -- he's essentially a figurehead and not a tactician in any way -- but this squad has won many games in spite of him. I think that'll continue this year. Rookie RB Joe Mixon is getting rave reviews, while Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard are seasoned pros. 

Defensively, this unit is always decent, if unspectacular. Cincy is a consistently competitive club, but they're one of my top sleepers this year because no one seems to view them as a threat. That's a mistake, for sure.

AFC SOUTH

4. Jacksonville Jaguars (6-10); Strength of Schedule: T-30th

We officially have a quarterback controversy in Jacksonville...and does anyone really care other than the two players involved? Bust Blake Bortles broke the internet with this horrendous throw the other day, and WR1 Allen Robinson seems to be at the end of his rope with his broken-armed QB. Chad Henne took the first-team reps in practice recently, and can ya blame new head coach Doug Marrone?

While we're on the topic of Marrone; he's a polarizing figure, huh? With a low-ceiling team in Buffalo, he seemed to exceed expectations in the win column. When contract negotiations rolled around, he didn't like what he was hearing from Management; so he made the ballsy decision to bet on himself. He expected to be highly sought after on the open market, but ended up as the offensive line coach for the lowly Jags. Now he's worked his way up to the top spot, so the question is...can an Old School guy succeed in today's softer pro sports culture?

As a man, Marrone has a terrible reputation. He's been called "selfish," "greedy," shortsighted, stubborn, nasty and more of the like. Those qualities are a tough sell in an era defined by well-liked, team-first leaders like Dan Quinn, Jason Garrett, Mike Tomlin and Bill O'Brien. Over in the NBA, you have similarly-adored coaches like Steve Kerr, Brad Stevens, Erik Spoelstra and Mike Budenholzer. So, in essence, Marrone's "my way or the highway" philosophy represents the Old Guard making a final stand against the New Wave.

While all that makes for an interesting topic of conversation, the reality is that Marrone's Jags will be relying on Bortles and/or Henne. How far can you really go with either one of those guys? This club should probably be projected for 4 or 5 wins, but I'm giving Marrone credit for a couple close ones.

UPDATE: Bortles won the job. Sticking with 6 wins.

3. Indianapolis Colts (7-9); Strength of Schedule: 32nd

Indy's owner Jim Ersay recently said franchise quarterback Andrew Luck will be back "around" the start of the season. Reading between the lines, that means there's a high-percentage chance we'll be seeing either Scott Tolzien or Stephen Morris under center for the Colts' opener at the Los Angeles Rams. Luck had shoulder surgery in January, and his recovery hasn't been swift or smooth.

When you're a team that never rates well defensively, and you aren't particularly well-coached on either side of the ball, you end up relying on the strength and accuracy of your quarterback's throwing arm, right?

Well, it's looking like Luck is aiming for a Week 3 return vs. the Browns, and who's to say if he'll truly be ready then? How can I get behind a team with uncertainty surrounding its $140 million QB? I think Luck will be rusty/shaky through (at least) Week 6, and that's simply too deep into the 2017 schedule for this club to make a legitimate run at a postseason spot.

2. Houston Texans (8-8); Strength of Schedule: T-25th

I'm beating a dead horse on this topic, so I'll leave it at this: Bill O'Brien is one of the elite head coaches in the NFL. 

On paper the Texans always seem to be missing key ingredients of a winning formula, and yet, you look up at the standings at the end of the season and they either win the division or steal a Wild Card spot. This team competes, and that's a testament to their coaching staff and leaders, DE J.J. Watt, ILB Brian Cushing and WR1 DeAndre Hopkins. Watt and Cushing are textbook emotional leaders, while Hopkins' superb route running and extreme attention to detail allow him to lead by example.

The problem this year is that they're committing to QB Tom Savage out of the gate. Again, Osweiler was no world-beater, but he was beginning to trend in the right direction in terms of ball protection. I think the Texans' offense had the potential to become the mini-Chiefs. You may say that isn't striving for much, but when you're talking about Savage, Osweiler and Brandon Weeden, is it logical and/or realistic to strive for the offensive production levels of the Patriots, Packers or Falcons?

Of course it isn't. So, Osweiler was beginning to settle in toward the end of last year, when he passed for 253 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions in the final regular season game at the Titans, followed by 168 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions in a 27-14 playoff victory over the Raiders. In both games he also rushed for a TD. So between Osweiler and Savage, I take the former and try to turn him into Alex Smith.

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Now this year, there's a different issue: Give Deshaun Watson the damn ball! He was an excellent, no-brainer draft selection by the Texans' front office, and there's no logical reason to start Savage over him. The Jets reached the AFC Championship in Mark Sanchez's first two seasons in the NFL, simply by managing the difficulty of his decisions and throws. Dak Prescott shined in a similar scenario last year.

So, hand the keys to Deshaun and let him drive. Savage isn't a strong enough alternative, anyway. I think this decision may cost the Texans a couple wins, and a playoff spot.

1. Tennessee Titans (9-7); Strength of Schedule: T-30th

All aboard! Last call for passengers on The Hype Train!

Ask any novice NFL fan who their "sleeper" team is this season, and there's a 90 percent chance they'll say the Titans. When everyone seems to agree on the "team to watch," flopping becomes a likely scenario. Luckily for the Titans, Luck's injury and Bortles' existence are good news. The Texans are mediocre enough for Tennessee to squeak out this division.

We all know the deal -- Marcus Mariota has been in desperate need of weapons, and here come Eric Decker and rookie Corey Davis. Unfortunately, Decker has proven to be quite injury-prone, and Davis' hamstring injury has turned his summer into a total bust. The talent pool has undoubtedly improved for the Titans, I just don't think they'll be running away with 11 or 12 wins.

AFC WEST

4. Denver Broncos (6-10); Strength of Schedule: 1st

In today's quarterback-crazy league, I give John Elway a lot of credit for putting together a defense-driven team that won the Super Bowl a few years ago. Unfortunately, the Broncos' outlook isn't as bright this season.

Elway's club still boasts an elite defense -- led by OLB Von Miller, CBs Chris Harris and Aqib Talib, DE Derek Wolfe and SS T.J. Ward -- but I have serious concerns about QBs Trevor Siemian and Paxton Lynch, the Raiders and Chiefs are a pair of legitimate playoff teams, and Denver has the toughest schedule in the entire NFL.

Siemian is about as vanilla as they come, and Lynch looks like he's going to be a bust to me. I think Elway will have to consider some dramatic changes after this season.

3. Los Angeles Chargers (7-9); Strength of Schedule: 3rd

In close games, the Chargers always seem to lose in excruciating fashion. This has been going on for years now. Maybe former HC Mike McCoy was bad luck (I actually thought he was a pretty decent X's and O's coach). I don't think Anthony Lynn will be an improvement from a tactical standpoint, but Philip Rivers doesn't need much assistance running the offense. Things have to even out eventually, right? I think they'll win a couple close ones this year.

I can't get too crazy with their record though, because the Raiders and Chiefs are pretty safe bets.

2. Kansas City Chiefs (10-6); Strength of Schedule: 2nd

Andy Reid is a wizard. He may never be able to win The Big One with Alex Smith calling his signals, but he knows how to pile up regular-season victories. Like Belichick, Reid meticulously studies the minutia and finds discreet weaknesses in his opponents. I can't give KC 12 wins like last season because they have the second-toughest schedule in the game, but they'll find a way to get 10.

UPDATE: RB1 Spencer Ware is out for the season, so I was considering dropping KC to 9 wins. However, whenever Jamaal Charles went down in the past, Reid found ways to squeeze productivity out of his backs. Kareem Hunt and Charcandrick West will be asked to carry the load, now. Sticking with 10 wins. 

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1. Oakland Raiders (11-5); Strength of Schedule: 4th

I mean, some of these are pretty self-explanatory. As long as the Raiders can keep Derek Carr healthy, they are a top contender to meet the Patriots in the AFC Championship Game. Marshawn Lynch has been getting a lot of offseason hype, but I don't think he'll be that much more productive than Latavius Murray was. It's an upgrade, but it ain't gonna beat the Pats. 

NATIONAL FOOTBALL CONFERENCE

NFC EAST

4. Philadelphia Eagles (6-10); Strength of Schedule: T-10th

WR1 Alshon Jeffery will certainly help, but I'm not a big believer in either QB Carson Wentz or HC Doug Pederson. RB LeGarrette Blount will be a bust without Belichick, Brady and that offensive line. 

3. Dallas Cowboys (8-8); Strength of Schedule: T-10th

What is wrong with Ezekiel Elliott? Like seriously, man, you have the world at your fingertips! Just stop f'n up!

Anyway, both Darren McFadden and Alfred Morris have a lot of mileage on their tired legs, so we're looking at a major drop off in production here. Dallas' offensive line is widely considered the best in the league, but that didn't seem to matter when they went 4-12 just two seasons ago.

Jason Garrett is coming off a fantastic season on the sidelines, and Dak Prescott showed me an awful lot about his mental toughness in the attempted playoff comeback against the Packers, but Elliott is just too big a loss for 6 games. It looks like a good year, bad year trend is in effect for Jerry Jones' high-profile franchise.

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2. New York Giants (9-7); Strength of Schedule: T-8th

Toot toot! Preseason Hype Train, here we come again...

Brandon Marshall undoubtedly provides a lift, but I'm worried about Eli Manning. The following QBs had higher passer ratings than Eli last year: Jameis Winston (18 picks, only Rivers had more), Carson Palmer (who played the worst ball of his career) and Colin Kaepernick.

Yup, Colin Kaerpernick was better than Eli Manning last season.

And it's not only the stats; it's also The Eye Test. Eli didn't look like himself last year. He was super indecisive. He missed window throws he used to make with ease. His timing was clearly off. Now, Marshall is obviously supposed to open up some looks for him, but Odell Beckham is coming into the season limping, and the Giants' offensive line is notoriously shaky.

On the bright side, in the backfield, I happen to like first-year starter Paul Perkins, while DE Jason Pierre-Paul, DT Damon "Snacks" Harrison, SS Landon Collins and CBs Janoris Jenkins and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie will continue to lead this rock-solid defense that improved drastically last year.

1. Washington Redskins (10-6); Strength of Schedule: 7th

With QB Kirk Cousins in a contract year, there are a handful of different ways this season can shake out for HC Jay Gruden and his Redskins. By all accounts, after this year, Cousins is set to become the highest-paid player in NFL history. So the two obvious outcomes are: (1) He rises to the occasion and posts stats similar to or better than last season or (2) he collapses under the immense pressure and diminishes his value on the open market. 

I happen to believe he'll fall somewhere in the middle, with the arrow leaning toward scenario #1. Cousins hasn't played well in The Big Game yet -- with last season on the line, he went 22 for 35 with only one touchdown and two ugly picks in the final game, at home, against the division-rival Giants -- but over the course of a long season he has the coaching and personnel to squeak out this division title. 

WR1 Terrelle Pryor should be a significant talent/athleticism upgrade over departed vet Pierre Garcon (though it may take Cousins and Pryor a few games to find their rhythm as a tandem), WR2 Jamison Crowder thrives in this system, Jordan Reed is one of the most gifted players at his position in a long time, and RB1 Rob Kelley comes in as a better player than Matt Jones was at the beginning of last year. 

CB Josh Norman leads the way defensively, and his value simply cannot be denied. His absence certainly played a role in Carolina's collapse last season. The Giants and Skins are going to take this division down to the wire. 

NFC NORTH

4. Chicago Bears (5-11); Strength of Schedule: 19th

As if this team didn't have enough problems...WR1 Cameron Meredith goes down with a season-ending injury in yesterday's preseason dress rehearsal. QB Mike Glennon isn't as bad as haters are saying, but moving the ball is going to be awfully difficult with Alshon Jeffery in Philly and Meredith on the operating table. RB Jordan Howard is clearly the centerpiece of this offense, but it's hard to run the ball effectively without the threat of a legitimate passing attack. 

HC John Fox and Chicago's front office are going to have an awfully difficult decision on their hands: Is it too dangerous to let No. 2 overall selection Mitchell Trubisky play under these circumstances? Most expect Trubisky to take some snaps as the starter this season, but do you want to risk killing his confidence without any significant receiving options? I'll let them figure that one out. 

3. Minnesota Vikings (9-7); Strength of Schedule: T-27th

Mike Zimmer's defense was fiery and ferocious last year. DE Everson Griffen provides pressure from the edge, NT Linval Joseph swallows up would-be rushers, CB1 Xavier Rhodes is one of the best in the business and CB Terence Newman supplies invaluable veteran leadership. With one of the easiest schedules in the league, these guys will be feasting on opposing offenses again this year. 

Offensively, while he's never going to knock your socks off, I'll admit that Sam Bradford has played better for the Vikings than he did for the Eagles or Rams. Did you know that Bradford had a higher QB rating (99.3) than Cousins, Derek Carr, Andrew Luck, Marcus Mariota and Ben Roethlisberger last season?

Impressive. Yet and still, any team commandeered by Bradford has a low ceiling. They'll also have to figure out how to distribute their carries between Dalvin Cook, Latavius Murray and Jerick McKinnon. 

2. Detroit Lions (10-6); Strength of Schedule: T-21st

I enjoyed watching Matthew Stafford play without Calvin Johnson last year. The former displayed far superior field vision than we'd seen from him in the past. I don't think much changes for the Lions this season, except that RB Ameer Abdullah provides an extra weapon for the arsenal if he can stay on the field.

1. Green Bay Packers (12-4); Strength of Schedule: 18th

It was nice to see WR Davante Adams break out last season. Heading into the prior year, he was everyone's favorite fantasy darling, and he totally flopped. Last season he was off the grid, and seemingly came from out of nowhere to pile up 997 yards and 12 touchdowns. At his position, his TD total was second to only one player...incredible teammate Jordy Nelson. 

I mean, do I really have to say much about this offense? Aaron Rodgers is one of the top 2 or 3 quarterbacks of all time, RB1 Ty Montgomery is a major upgrade over fat Eddie Lacy, WR3 Randall Cobb still gets it done and TE Martellus Bennett was a tremendous offseason pickup. 

So, at the end of the day, there are only two questions for this team to answer: 

1. Can they make enough stops to beat the Falcons in the playoffs?

2. If applicable, can they make enough stops to beat the Patriots in the Super Bowl?

I just don't have a lot of confidence in this defense. We'll see. 

NFC SOUTH

4. Tampa Bay Bucs (8-8): Strength of Schedule; 14th

Now boarding all passengers for the final stop on the Preseason Hype Train!

Look, this one is simple: I like their personnel across the board, but I don't believe Jameis Winston can limit his mistakes enough for Dirk Koetter's team to reach the postseason. 

If you've watched any of Winston's career to this point -- or even if you've only watched Hard Knocks this season -- then you understand the overarching issues. Koetter says, "Okay, game on the line offense, let's make the right play," and Winston proceeds to underthrow a pick into triple coverage. Then he says, "We can't turn the ball over in the redzone," and Winston, while falling to the ground, throws a pick into heavy traffic in the endzone. 

WRs Mike Evans and DeSean Jackson, DT Gerald McCoy and LBs Kwon Alexander and Lavonte David are all frontline players, but they won't matter if Winston turns the ball over in make-or-break situations. I don't think he'll make the necessary mental adjustments. 

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3. Carolina Panthers (8-8); Strength of Schedule: 16th

They may never recover from letting Josh Norman walk in his prime. Ya gotta lock up prime players. Can't cheap out. 

Meanwhile, who knows what to think about Cam Newton at this point? He had rotator cuff surgery this offseason, and he was an absolutely horrible leader last year. You can't be dabbing and celebrating when things are going well, then acting like a child and blaming your teammates when shit hits the fan. A true leader keeps his teammates up at all times. 

On the flip side, rookie RB Christian McCaffrey should provide a lift as a dangerous receiver out of the backfield. That is, of course, if Newton isn't forcing the ball into tight windows downfield. 

2. New Orleans Saints (9-7); Strength of Schedule: 15th

No one's talkin' about Drew Brees' boys, and you know I like that. After going 11-5 in 2013, the Saints have gone 7-9 in each of the last three seasons. During that time period, they've lost an excruciating number of tight games. I think that'll balance out this year. They'll steal a couple close ones. 

I don't have to write anything else. You know the deal: Explosive offense, exploitable defense. 

1. Atlanta Falcons (12-4); Strength of Schedule: 13th

Just typing "Atlanta Falcons" makes me cringe. That was the worst Super Bowl experience of my life. To this day, I'm still sick to my stomach. I hate the Patriots THAT much. 

Anyway, this team has the potential to win 13-15 games, but there has to be some sort of SB hangover. Ultimately, I believe in Dan Quinn, Matt Ryan, Julio Jones and Devonta Freeman, so I think Atlanta will have another shot at it this postseason. 

Yet in the back of my mind, we all saw what happened to the Panthers last season, after going 15-1 the year before. I think Ryan will have superior mental resiliency, though. 

NFC WEST

4. San Francisco 49ers (4-12); Strength of Schedule: 20th

New HC Kyle Shanahan is one of my least favorite people on earth. Why? WHY did he call a passing play when the Falcons were about to seal a Super Bowl victory with a field goal from automatic Matt Bryant? WHY? WHY GOD?!!

Yet and still, from a tactical standpoint, Shanahan will squeeze more out of this depleted 49ers' talent pool than he probably should. They'll probably win 5 or 6 games, but I'm making 4 my official prediction because I want Shanahan to suffer the sting of failure (again). 

3. Los Angeles Rams (5-11); Strength of Schedule: 17th

New offensive-minded head coach Sean McVay is a step in the right direction for this organization, but I don't think he can turn things around as quickly as Adam Gase did in Miami. WRs Sammy Watkins and Robert Woods were perfectly logical pickups, but Jared Goff isn't ready yet. He may never be. McVay can coach him up all he wants; Goff's ceiling may just be inherently low. 

DE Aaron Donald and LB Alec Ogletree will continue to lead this defense that tends to be a bit overrated. 

2. Arizona Cardinals (9-7); Strength of Schedule: 23rd

I don't like Carson Palmer or Bruce Arians, but I have a gut feeling about this team. Last season was a total disaster for them, but I'm sensing that they will definitely hang around the playoff race this year. Maybe it's because cancerous WR Michael Floyd is finally gone, and I don't think very highly of the 49ers or Rams. 

1. Seattle Seahawks (10-6); Strength of Schedule: T-25th

Funny that they splurged on Eddie Lacy and he might be the 4th-best running back on their roster. Thomas Rawls, if healthy, is a legitimate starter; C.J. Prosise is a burner who can break off a big play at any time, and youngster Chris Carson has impressed throughout offseason workouts and the preseason. Lacy has been one of the most overrated players in the NFL for the past 4-5 seasons. 

Otherwise, you know the deal -- Pete Carroll, Russell Wilson, Doug Baldwin, Jimmy Graham, Richard Sherman, Kam Chancellor, Earl Thomas, Bobby Wagner and Michael Bennett. The usual suspects are back and intact. 

THE POSTSEASON

AFC Playoff Seeding: (1) Patriots (2) Raiders (3) Bengals (4) Titans (5) Steelers (6) Chiefs

NFC Playoff Seeding: (1) Packers (2) Falcons (3) Seahawks (4) Redskins (5) Lions (6) Saints

AFC Wild Card Weekend: Bengals over Chiefs and Steelers over Titans

NFC Wild Card Weekend: Seahawks over Saints and Redskins over Lions

AFC Semifinals: Patriots over Steelers and Raiders over Bengals

NFC Semifinals: Packers over Redskins and Falcons over Seahawks

AFC Championship Game: Patriots over Raiders, 31-24

NFC Championship Game: Packers over Falcons, 38-35

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SUPER BOWL LII

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS OVER GREEN BAY PACKERS, 34-27. 

I think the Falcons will get a little unlucky along the way, and I don't think the Packers can get enough clutch stops to beat the Pats in the world's biggest game. 

They're gonna do it again. F**k my life.