Thursday, June 8, 2017

Johnny Fro's MLB Top 200 Players: Prepare to Be Shocked

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Last week my good friends Jamie Garland and Steven Summer (former MLB.com "Beat the Streak" champ) pointed out this utterly outlandish article to me. Dayn Perry of CBS Sports published his "Top 100 Players in MLB right now" rankings, and Antonio Senzatela was ranked ahead of Clayton Kershaw, the greatest pitcher of his generation. Zack Cozart was ranked ahead of Bryce Harper and Kris Bryant. You get the idea. 

Now, I must do my journalistic duty by highlighting the fact that Perry wrote, "The rankings you're about to see reflect nothing more than who's been the best through the first two months of the 2017 season."

Okay, fine, he made his parameters clear, but what's the point of a list based upon that? Can't we just pull up the 2017 MLB statistics and look at them? If you're not going to analyze and interpret the data -- compare it to past seasons, project performance going forward -- aren't you basically saying, "So and so has good stats so far"? I see zero value in such a list. 

So, naturally, my rankings are going to include more analysis, projection and common sense. We all know Kershaw is 100 times better than Senzatela, so what does Perry accomplish by ranking the kid ahead of the legend? Probably just trying to rile people up. Without further ado, here are my considerations:

1. If I look at this season's stats for a particular player, what do they tell me about him? Is he trending up, down or providing valuable year-over-year consistency? Is his early statistical output an aberration? 

For example, Mark Reynolds is having a very productive offensive season, but he's played for 7 teams in 11 years and is a lifetime .237 hitter who has struck out over 195 times in four separate seasons. This year he's hitting .307 and playing at Coors Field. We can interpret who the REAL Mark Reynolds is, can't we?

2. I have always, always, always valued a consistent batting average hitter over an all-or-nothing home run hitter. Professional at bats and approaches are of paramount importance to me. Obviously, the best offensive players are those who provide the best of both worlds. 

3. Throwing hitters, starting pitchers and relievers into the same pot is an EXTREMELY difficult thing to do. Try making one of these lists yourself -- reviewing the most important stat categories, trying not to forget injured or suspended stars, comparing hitter and pitcher values -- and you'll understand why it's impossible to satisfy everyone. So many individual decisions have to be made. 

4. Expanding upon one of those comments...since I'm not following Dayn Perry's model, I will be including injured and suspended players. I cannot dismiss a player's ability simply because he is injured or suspended. 

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5. I can, however, use injuries and suspensions as tiebreakers. For example, the Aroldis Chapman vs. Andrew Miller debate was a hot topic last postseason (yeah, I'm talking about you, Marty DeSantis) and since Chapman stumbled out to a slower start and got injured, I can give Miller the nod in the short-term. 

6. Consistency, consistency, consistency. For example, I'm not putting Ryan Zimmerman -- a very serious NL MVP candidate -- ahead of Adrian Beltre, simply because Zimmerman got off to a scorching start while Beltre was injured. Too small of a sample size. Compare their preceding three or four seasons, and you'll know who the better player is. 

7. Let me know if I missed anyone. It's hard to keep tabs on over 200 players. 

I'm sure there's more, but you'll get the idea as I go along. The synopses will be short because, well, this is a long-ass list. 

** EDITOR'S NOTE: The list was finalized on 6/3/2017. Most stats as of that date. **

Honorable Mention (in no particular order)

Zack Wheeler, SP, Mets
Tony Watson, CP, Pirates
Mike Foltynewicz, SP, Braves
Jarrod Dyson, OF, Mariners
AJ Ramos, CP, Marlins
Garrett Richards, SP, Angels
Antonio Senzatela, SP, Rockies (speak of the Devil)
Kelvin Herrera, CP, Royals

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Andrelton Simmons, SS, Angels
Jed Lowrie, Infielder, A's
Cesar Hernandez, 2B, Phillies
Brandon Drury, 2B, Diamondbacks

Johnny Fro's Top 200 MLB Players

200. Brandon Kintzler, CP, Twins: In terms of closer's job security and pure stuff, he was an afterthought heading into the season. Now he's the steady fireman for a surprising first-place team. (2.66 ERA, 14 saves)

199. Jason Vargas, SP, Royals: This crafty veteran lefty has been a revelation this season. Based on pure stats -- 2.08 ERA, 1.10 WHIP -- he could easily be in the top 20 or 30, but this start feels fluky. 4.06 lifetime ERA. 

198. Ken Giles, CP, Astros

197. Andrew McCutchen, OF, Pirates: Lifetime achievement award. Could soon fall out of the top 200. 

196. Hunter Renfroe, OF, Padres: Emerging player. Swing reminds me of Ryan Zimmerman

195. Aaron Altherr, OF, Phillies

194. Mark Reynolds, 1B, Rockies

193. Mike Napoli, 1B, Rangers

192. Nick Markakis, OF, Braves

191. Yonder Alonso, 1B, A's:  Off to a career start after hitting .253 with 7 homers for the entirety of 2016. He's in the same boat as Vargas. 

190. Ian Desmond, 1B/OF, Rockies

189. Yunel Escobar, 3B, Angels

188. Jon Gray, SP, Rockies:  Very good stuff, brutal park. Strikeout pitcher; currently injured. 

187. John Lackey, SP, Cubs:  A tremendous competitor who has never backed down from a big moment, but his stuff is deteriorating significantly. Saw him consistently around 90 MPH the other day. Could be on his way out like McCutchen. 

186. Hunter Pence, OF, Giants

185. Mitch Haniger, OF, Mariners:  Sprinted out of the gate looking like one of the most talented all-around players in the game, but quickly fell victim to injury. If he comes back healthy and continues that production, he could easily be a top 100 guy. 

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184. Justin Smoak, 1B, Blue Jays

183. Eduardo Nunez, 3B, Giants:  Excellent basestealer with valuable position versatility. 

182. Billy Hamilton, OF, Reds:  "He's the fastest kid alive." - Superbad

181. Steven Souza, Jr., OF, Rays

180. Carlos Beltran, DH/OF, Astros:  Headed in the same direction as McCutchen and Lackey. 

179. Charlie Morton, SP, Astros:  Juiced out of his mind this season, throwing 99 MPH at times. Not surprisingly, his strikeout rate has climbed in comparison to previous years. 

178. Victor Martinez, DH/1B, Tigers:  A past-his-prime professional hitter. Always liked him. 

177. Trevor Story, SS, Rockies:  Last season's 27 homers may have been a little fluky, but he's starting to heat up again after a slow start this year. Young guy with pop, plays at Coors. 

176. Seung Hwan Oh, CP, Cardinals:  Almost lost his job early in the season, but has since righted the ship. Was highly-touted coming into the year. Don't think he's quite as good as people think. 

175. Roberto Osuna, CP, Blue Jays

174. Kevin Kiermaier, OF, Rays:  A very nice all-around player. Fun guy to watch -- plays with passion, puts together quality at bats and runs the bases well while putting on an absolute show in center field with his glove.

173. Melky Cabrera, OF, White Sox:  A veteran, professional switch hitter. Off to a slowish start this year, but hit .296 last season with 42 doubles (.285 lifetime hitter).

172. Logan Morrison, 1B, Rays:  Has never been a terrible hitter, but his scorching start is well above his usual level of production. Should come back down to earth some.

171. Cody Bellinger, OF/1B, Dodgers:  Has been a hot topic around the league, but we've seen young Dodgers come up scalding before: Joc Pederson and Yasiel Puig. Neither has been able to replicate their early success, when the opposing scouting reports were still under development. We'll see how Bellinger responds long-term after his first mini slump.

170. Yasmani Grandal, C, Dodgers

169. Salvador Perez, C, Royals

168. Jonathan Villar, 2B, Brewers:  Did you know that he was the #16 overall fantasy player last season? Ahead of studs like Charlie Blackmon, Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz, Anthony Rizzo and Daniel Murphy? Well, unfortunately, Villar's been terrible this year. The rest of the 2017 campaign will determine whether or not he drops out of the top 200 or works his way back into the top 100.

167. Masahiro Tanaka, SP, Yankees:  Could be heading the same way as Victor Martinez, Carlos Beltran, John Lackey, etc. Tanaka's once-rubber arm looks stiff and fatigued. Hopefully the hot summer days will loosen his wilting wing.

166. Tanner Roark, SP, Nationals

165. James Paxton, SP, Mariners:  Was unfortunate to see him get hurt after a blazing start. Paxton is a rare breed: A true left-handed flamethrower. His arrow is pointing up, but he'll need to stay healthy and show consistency.

164. Evan Gattis, C/DH, Astros

163. Joey Gallo, Rangers


162. Marwin Gonzalez, Utility, Astros:  Always had power and raw talent, but his batting average is surprisingly high this season (.314). Probably shining because of the Astros' incredible lineup protection. Another player with useful versatility like Eduardo Nunez and Hernan Perez

161. Avisail Garcia, OF, White Sox:  Mini Miggy is finally breaking out. Always had high expectations.

160. Gary Sanchez, C, Yankees:  Hasn't even been close to what he was last year, but the raw talent is still there. He'll find the rhythm again and head back toward my top 100. 

159. Adam Wainwright, SP, Cardinals

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158. Jose Ramirez, 3B, Indians

157. Jose Quintana, SP, White Sox:  Having a horrific year after early-season trade rumors, but has been a top-tier lefty in recent years. We'll give him a chance to bounce back. 

156. Alex Wood, SP, Dodgers:  Has never been a favorite of mine -- hittable, flat fastball -- but he's pitching extremely well and has always had an excellent curveball. Attacking the zone with no fear, as well. 

155. Andrew Benintendi, OF, Red Sox

154. Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, Yankees

153. Travis Shaw, 3B, Brewers:  Off to a hot start for the second-straight season, but this time it looks a little more sustainable. Shaw is refining his approach and enjoying the friendly confines of Miller Park (ball jumps outta there). 

152. Chris Owings, SS/2B, Diamondbacks

151. David Peralta, OF, Diamondbacks:  An emerging professional hitter. Always seems to hit for a solid average with extra base hits. Just needs to stay on the field. 

150. Eugenio Suarez, 3B, Reds:  See Travis Shaw, then swap Miller Park for Great American Ballpark. 

149. Jeff Samardzija, SP, Giants

148. Drew Pomeranz, SP, Red Sox

147. Yasmany Tomas, OF, Diamondbacks:  Love the mechanics of his swing and his undeniable power, but he has no position and injuries are beginning to become an issue. 

146. J.T. Realmuto, C, Marlins:  Has a beautiful hitting approach for a catcher. Nice short swing with gap-to-gap ability. 

145. Mike Moustakas, 3B, Royals

144. J.A. Happ, SP, Blue Jays:  A serious Cy Young contender last season. Stats have normalized this year. 

143. Michael Pineda, SP, Yankees:  The Jekyll and Hyde of big league pitchers. 

142. Kendrys Morales, DH, Blue Jays:  This savvy vet was like a poor man's David Ortiz last season. He's just at that stage of his career where he sees everything very clearly at the dish. He's a clutch hitter with a pure pro approach. 

141. Julio Teheran, SP, Braves:  Arguably the most overrated pitcher in the MLB. Just watch him pitch, and you'll know what I mean. His stuff is surprisingly mundane. Has been getting rocked this season, and had another clunker a few years ago. 

140. Alex Colome, CP, Rays

139. Raisel Iglesias, CP, Reds:  Cincinnati's prized arm. They just never quite know what to do with him. Long-term...is he a starter or reliever? Either way, he has fantastic stuff and good results early in his career. 

138. Matt Bush, CP, Rangers:  What a reclamation project by the Rangers. A former No. 1 overall pick in the draft -- a longggg time ago -- who, while driving under the influence, struck an innocent man and ruined his life. There is absolutely no doubt that Matt Bush is an asshole -- but he throws flames and gets people out. 

137. Dan Straily, SP, Marlins:  Really coming into his own over the course of the past two seasons. Strikeout rate is rising dramatically.

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136. Ivan Nova, SP, Pirates

135. Adam Eaton, OF, Nationals:  What an unfortunate injury for the Nats. Eaton is a grinder who creates havoc at the top of the order, especially one as deep and talented as Washington's. He could be a major missing X-factor in the postseason. 

134. Rick Porcello, SP, Red Sox:  See the explanation for J.A. Happ, except Ricky actually won the Cy Young. 

133. Ender Inciarte, OF, Braves:  One of the elite defensive players in the world, and he can hit .290 for you at the top of your order. 

132. Hernan Perez, Utility, Brewers:  Probably the second-best utility man in the game right now. Gets versatile stat production and can play anywhere you need him to. 

131. Mike Leake, SP, Cardinals:  Having an absolutely phenomenal season, but he's pitching over his head. His early-season stats are an outlier. Talk about a guy with average stuff. 

130. Dylan Bundy, SP, Orioles:  Could have a rising star on our hands here. As an inexperienced starter, it's extremely difficult to pitch well in the AL East. It's even more difficult pitching your home games at Camden Yards. Bundy has been as good as advertised. 

129. Gerrit Cole, SP, Pirates

128. Yadier Molina, C, Cardinals

127. Gregory Polanco, OF, Pirates:  Has some of the best pure talent in baseball, just needs to stay healthy and establish consistency of production. 

126. Rougned Odor, 2B, Rangers:  Which is the real guy...this season's bum or last year's star?

125. Greg Holland, CP, Rockies:  How many people had Greg Holland at No. 1 in their preseason closer pool? Raise your hand if you did. Anyone? No friggin' way. This guy is blatantly juicing, but his numbers have been downright astonishing, especially at Coors. 

124. Carlos Santana, DH/1B, Indians

123. David Robertson, CP, White Sox

122. Justin Upton, OF, Tigers

121. Eric Thames, 1B, Brewers:  Goes on the "Obvious Juicers Who Haven't Been Caught" list with Greg Holland, Jake Arrieta and Jose Bautista. Doesn't look like Thames' early-season heroics are even remotely sustainable. 

120. Danny Duffy, SP, Royals

119. Jeurys Familia, CP, Mets

118. Corey Knebel, CP, Brewers

117. Kyle Seager, 3B, Mariners

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116. Luis Severino, SP, Yankees:  Like Knebel, this kid has incredibly filthy stuff. The question long-term will be: Will he maintain consistent success, or will he continue to show similarities to his elder teammate Michael Pineda

115. Scott Schebler, OF, Reds:  Has become Cincinnati's cheap-but-equally-effective replacement for Jay Bruce. Schebler is tied for 3rd in the majors with 16 dingers, after showing power potential in just 82 games last season. Stock is rising. 

114. Chris Davis, 1B, Orioles

113. Marcus Stroman, SP, Blue Jays

112. Gio Gonzalez, SP, Nationals

111. Ian Kinsler, 2B, Tigers

110. Zack Cozart, SS, Reds:  Has gotten off to hot starts in the past, kind of like the aforementioned Travis Shaw and Eugenio Suarez, but I'll need to see him maintain his elite level of production before I move him into my top 100. Can you believe that Dayn Perry had this guy No. 4 overall?? Come onnnnn. 

109. Aaron Sanchez, SP, Blue Jays:  He's the pitching equivalent of Gregory Polanco. Show-stopping talent, but needs to stay healthy and find consistency. 

108. Felix Hernandez, SP, Mariners:  Another lifetime achievement award. Arrow pointing downward. 

107. Jonathan Lucroy, C, Rangers:  A professional hitter as far as catchers go, but a bit overrated if you really examine his stats. 

106. Michael Brantley, OF, Indians:  Great to see him back and healthy. A very, very good major league ballplayer. 

105. Jay Bruce, OF, Mets:  Has displayed a much better approach with the Mets in his second go around, but has rocketed into some hard outs in the past month or so. Overall, for his career, he has been a dependable home run hitter with some RBI capability. 

104. Justin Bour, 1B, Marlins:  An emerging, bruising power hitter who uses all fields and is beginning to hit for average, as well. 

103. Todd Frazier, 3B, White Sox:  Has a ton of power, but has suddenly forgotten how to make contact with the ball. 40 homers last season, 35 the year before. 

102. Cody Allen, Indians:  Would easily be in the top 100 if he got ahead in counts more and walked less guys. He's extremely effective, anyway. 

101. Lance Lynn, SP, Cardinals:  Was one of my top fantasy sleepers coming back from injury this year. Has not disappointed with a 2.97 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. This guy's a bulldog. 

100. Marco Estrada, SP, Blue Jays:  Don't ask me how he does it; he just does. His stuff is shitty but he's been a consistently good pitcher the past 3 seasons. 

99. Robbie Ray, SP, Diamondbacks:  I took a lot of flack from Frank Valeriano and Steven Summer for this guy. My stance is that Ray has always had electric stuff and a penchant for strikeouts, but his control issues hurt his ERA and WHIP. This season, not surprisingly as he matures and continues to hone his craft, he has dropped down to a 3.00 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in an extremely difficult hitters' park. I don't think there's any question that Robbie is a top-tier lefty in the making.

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98. Elvis Andrus, SS, Rangers

97. Mark Melancon, CP, Giants

96. Mark Trumbo, DH, Orioles

95. Dee Gordon, 2B, Marlins:  Skill for skill, he's a little better version of Elvis Andrus to me. Basestealers who can hit for average are such a rarity these days. Just look at guys like Billy Hamilton and Rajai Davis

94. Ervin Santana, SP, Twins:  Guess the juice is still in his system from the season he got caught. Has been one of the best pitchers in the world this year. 

93. Wade Davis, CP, Cubs

92. DJ LeMahieu, 2B, Rockies

91. Jake Arrieta, SP, Cubs:  Frank Valeriano and Steven Summer were also pissed when I initially had Robbie Ray ahead of Arrieta. I'm going to give in to them for now because I understand that Arrieta has been one of the premier pitchers in baseball for the past handful of seasons. I have to agree that he has a better track record than Ray. However, I project that Ray will be better going forward. We'll see if I'm right at season's end. 

90. Dustin Pedroia, 2B, Red Sox

89. Matt Holliday, DH/1B, Yankees

88. Jedd Gyorko, 3B, Cardinals:  I'm going to put him on "The List" with some of the other culprits. You know, the list that rhymes with berROIDS or merROIDS. Yes, I know those aren't words. Regardless, Gyorko has miraculously duplicated his tremendous production from last season. 

87. Lorenzo Cain, OF, Royals

86. Josh Harrison, Utility, Pirates:  The best utility man in the MLB, and one of Big Fro's favorite ballplayers. I can see why my dad likes him: Harrison is a consistent contact hitter who uses all fields, plays all over the diamond and plays with passion and determination every, single day. He's an old school ballplayer. There's nothing not to like. 

85. Trea Turner, SS, Nationals:  Looked like he was well on his way to becoming a top 25 player as a rookie, but just hasn't been the same as a sophomore. Ultimately I think he's a super talented young player who will work his way back into my top 50. 

84. Nomar Mazara, OF, Rangers

83. Albert Pujols, 1B, Los Angeles Angels

82. Anthony Rendon, 3B, Nationals

81. Cole Hamels, SP, Rangers: Look at this lefty's career stats. As steady as they come.

80. Christian Yelich, OF, Marlins:  Overall he's an impressive young player, but hasn't been as good or valuable as I thought he'd be this season. 

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79. Miguel Sano, 3B, Twins:  Becoming the face of the franchise for a Twins club that is surprising many. 

78. Michael Conforto, OF, Mets:  For once, I credit hitting coach Kevin Long for correcting a struggling hitter's flaws. Conforto stormed onto the scene as a high-impact rookie during the Mets' run to the World Series, but totally regressed last season due to blatant mechanical flaws. Conforto was tipping and losing his balance on more than half the pitches he saw. This year, from day one, Conforto has made a concerted effort to maintain level shoulders while trusting that he can drive outside pitches deep to left center. He's responded by batting .308 with 14 homers. 

77. Corey Dickerson, OF, Rays:  A veryyy tricky player to rank. With the Rockies in 2014 and '15, he hit .312 and .304, while also providing some homers and doubles. However, in 2016, his first season with the Rays, he dipped all the way down to .245, with a painfully low .293 OBP. So naturally, after a clunker of a year like that, he was dismissed as an afterthought heading into this season. It was easy for detractors to say, "He was only good because of Coors." However, Dickerson has destroyed that common sentiment by hitting .336 this year and leading the American League in both hits (79) and doubles (19). He's pacing a career-high in homers as well.

76. Zack Greinke, SP, Diamondbacks:  Bouncing back this season after an extremely rough, transitional first year with the D'Backs. It may be the same division, but Chase Field is an entirely different animal than Dodger Stadium.

75. Kyle Hendricks, SP, Cubs:  There's no way he's as good as his numbers were last season, but he's been decent enough this year to stick in my top 75. One of the game's best control-and-command pitchers, but his stuff is super underwhelming.

74. Jean Segura, SS, Mariners:  It's like he alternates with monster numbers every other season, particularly for a shortstop. He doesn't have the year-to-year consistency like middle infielders Jose Altuve and teammate Robinson Cano, but Segura is still an electric player and one of the MLB's most valuable all-around shortstops.

73. Johnny Cueto, SP, Giants:  Having a bit of a down year, but has been one of the best and most consistent starting pitchers in the NL for quite some time.

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72. Eric Hosmer, 1B, Royals

71. Dellin Betances, RP, Yankees:  In terms of pure stuff, there's no question he's in the top 2 or 3 in the universe. If you genetically-engineered a pitcher in a lab, he wouldn't have better intangibles or attributes than this impressive kid. Just an absolute stud. 

70. Jacob deGrom, SP, Mets:  Has hit a rough patch of late, but has been one of the premier pitchers in the NL over a four-year span. His command hasn't been as sharp after his surgery. Arrow could be pointing downward. 

69. Ryan Zimmerman, 1B, Nationals:  Has suddenly regained his bat speed of about 10 years ago. Slim, fit and explosive. He's on that Joey Bats "lean" juice. Regardless of how he's doing it, he's a frontrunner for NL MVP. 

68. Evan Longoria, 3B, Rays:  Could be trending downward. 

67. Carlos Gonzalez, OF, Rockies

66. Adrian Beltre, 3B, Rangers:  One of my favorite players. Adrian plays with passion and confidence, one of the best possible combinations for a professional athlete. This vet was a born ballplayer. It's in his blood. 

65. Adam Jones, OF, Orioles

64. Chris Archer, SP, Rays:  Has elite stuff and an excellent strikeout rate, just needs to cut down on his walks and pitch into better luck. His ability indicates that he should be a top 50 player. 

63. Michael Fulmer, SP, Tigers: The reigning AL Rookie of the Year is off to a fantastic start to his big league career. No sophomore slump for this pure talent. 

62. Starling Marte, OF, Pirates:  Should be a top 50 all-around player, but I'm clearly punishing him for the PED suspension. We don't know exactly HOW much the drugs have helped him to this point in his young career. Arrow could go either way, depending on how he looks upon return. 

60. Brian Dozier, 2B, Twins

59. A.J. Pollock, OF, Diamondbacks:  Has the potential to be a top 25-30 player, just needs to stay on the field. 

58. Jose Bautista, OF, Blue Jays

57. George Springer, OF, Astros:  Has been a nice sparkplug for the best team in baseball. Just not quite as good as teammates Altuve and Correa. Springer's a fellow UConn Husky!

56. Hanley Ramirez, DH/Utility, Red Sox

55. Carlos Carrasco, SP, Indians:  In that same "stuff" category as Corey Knebel and Dellin Betances. Boasts absolutely vicious stuff. 

54. Khris Davis, OF, A's:  One of the elite pure power hitters now. 

53. Starlin Castro, 2B, Yankees:  Go ahead, be one of those people who thinks Theo Epstein is a genius and/or savior. Just remember that he LOVED Jason Heyward and could not wait to get rid of Castro, who is hitting .317 with 9 homers to Addison Russell's .209 and 3 homers. Castro's one of the best contact hitters in the game. 

52. Wil Myers, 1B, Padres:  Has found his comfort zone as San Diego's franchise player. 

51. Xander Bogaerts, SS, Red Sox:  Incredibly high at bat quality. Has a fantastic eye and uses all fields. Definitely learned a lot from Big Papi.

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50. Justin Verlander, SP, Tigers

49. Manny Machado, 3B, Orioles:  Having an absolutely brutal season. Take a look at his career stats -- he's not as good as you think. Top 5 defensive player, though.

48. Ryan Braun, OF, Brewers

47. David Price, SP, Red Sox:  For the regular season, I'm a big David Price guy. Sure he's battled injury early on, but last year he led the AL with 230 innings pitched in his first season at Fenway. Price has thrown over 200 innings 7 times, while sporting a lifetime 3.21 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. He's pitched in the AL East his entire career, and is unquestionably one of the best pitchers of his generation. In the postseason, however, he struggles because he attacks the zone TOO often with his fastball. I love that strategy throughout the long regular season, but in the playoffs you have to change speeds, eye levels and hit spots. Price doesn't have enough finesse to dominate in the postseason. 

46. Dallas Keuchel, SP, Astros:  Dominant season, horrible season, dominant season. I don't like soft tossers, but he's probably the best in that category. 

45. Jon Lester, SP, Cubs

44. Lance McCullers, Jr., Astros:  Has superstar stuff with a command pitcher's finesse and location. Throws his wicked hammer on 2-0 and 3-1 counts with total confidence. A star on the rise. 

43. Aroldis Chapman, CP, Yankees

42. Corey Kluber, SP, Indians:  Still feeling some of the effects of wearing out his arm during a long, hard-fought run to the World Series. Kluber was a gutsy horse for Tito Francona

41. Craig Kimbrel, CP, Red Sox

40. Andrew Miller, RP, Indians:  Put him in to start the inning, or give him the ball with bases loaded and the game on the line; it doesn't matter. He's lights out no matter what the situation. Throws any pitch on any count and features the best lefty slider since Randy Johnson

39. Carlos Martinez, SP, Cardinals

38. Anthony Rizzo, 1B, Cubs:  Never hit more than 32 homers. Never hit higher than .292. He's a "name" player. Overrated to me.

37. Giancarlo Stanton, OF, Marlins

36. Yu Darvish, SP, Rangers:  Are his "gyroball" and slider the same thing? Whatever those things are, they are friggin' nasty. Moves from behind a right-handed batter's back to 5 inches off the outside corner. Insanity. 

35. Kenley Jansen, CP, Dodgers:  Has always drawn comparisons to Mariano Rivera, and he's really starting to show that kind of consistency. Kenley's the best and most reliable closer in the game right now. 

34. Corey Seager, SS, Dodgers

33. Francisco Lindor, SS, Indians:  Already one of my favorite players to watch, but he's becoming a bit overrated as far as his bat goes. .301 with 15 homers last year, .267 batting average this year. He's a fun player with a jaw-dropping glove, but let's not rush him into the top 10. 

32. Stephen Strasburg, SP, Nationals

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31. Aaron Judge, OF, Yankees:  A megastar in the making? I think so.

30. Jake Lamb, 3B, Diamondbacks:  An underrated stud the past two seasons. Look at his stats

29. Marcell Ozuna, OF, Marlins:  Becoming the mini Vladimir Guerrero. Has "found" it like Daniel Murphy, Freddie FreemanJ.D. Martinez and the player you'll see at No. 26. Some hitters reach a divine stage in their careers where the game just seems to slow down. Everything clicks. 

28. Jose Abreu, 1B, White Sox:  Model of consistency. A born hitter. 

27. Adam Duvall, OF, Reds:  Has emerged very similarly to Jake Lamb

26. Matt Kemp, OF, Braves:  Has been one of the best and most reliable hitters in baseball since joining the Braves midway through last year. Just knocking the cover off the ball. 

25. Edwin Encarnacion, 1B, Indians

24. Madison Bumgarner, SP, Giants:  What an unfortunate injury. 

23. Noah Syndergaard, SP, Mets:  What an unfortunate injury. 

22. Mookie Betts, OF, Red Sox:  Slowing down a bit this season, but I think he'll breakout into a major hot streak. 

21. J.D. Martinez, OF, Tigers:  Beast! Remember when the Astros let him go when they could barely win 50 games?

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20. Charlie Blackmon, OF, Rockies

19. Daniel Murphy, 2B, Nationals:  I honestly need an entire column to discuss this guy. Miss you, Murph...f**k you, Sandy!

18. Robinson Cano, 2B, Mariners:  It's like the Mariners always have the sweetest swing in the game: Ken Griffey, Jr. and now Robbie. 

17. Buster Posey, C, Giants:  The Giants are an un-sexy team, but they've won three recent World Series and Posey is the heart-and-soul of the club. Clutch hitter, solid catcher, classy leader. Some aspects of value are completely intangible. 

16. Nelson Cruz, DH, Mariners:  The best pure power hitter in the MLB. A la Albert Belle, or Sammy Sosa to a lesser degree. 

15. Miguel Cabrera, 1B, Tigers:  Body is finally starting to break down. One of the greatest hitters of our generation, and probably of all time. 

14. Yoenis Cespedes, OF, Mets:  Was the most valuable player in the National League from 2015-2016, but has simply gotten too muscular. Yo-Yo is a showstopping all-around talent, but he needs to get back on the field and stay there. If he doesn't, he's heading out of my top 20. 

13. Carlos Correa, SS, Astros:  Will soon be joining Mike Trout and Bryce Harper at the top of the list. 

12. Josh Donaldson, 3B, Blue Jays

11. Freddie Freeman, 1B, Braves

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10. Joey Votto, 1B, Reds

9. Kris Bryant, 3B/OF, Cubs

8. Nolan Arenado, 3B, Rockies

7. Jose Altuve, 2B, Astros

6. Max Scherzer, SP, Nationals

5. Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, Diamondbacks

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4. Bryce Harper, OF, Nationals

3. Chris Sale, SP, Red Sox

2. Clayton Kershaw, SP, Dodgers

1. Mike Trout, OF, Angels

I think the top 10 were pretty self-explanatory. Besides, this piece took wayyyy too long to research and write. Bring on the heated debates!!

Sunday, May 28, 2017

NBA Top 25 Players: The List of Superstars Gets Longer and Longer

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I'm a belittled master of hyperbole, but I'm serious about this one: Today's NBA boasts the deepest talent pool in the history of the game. The list of legitimate stars is lengthier than ever before. With that in mind, it's friggin' impossible to rank them in order, but I'm gonna try. Here's my criteria:

1. With the exception of the unselfish, ball movement offenses of the Warriors and Spurs, most NBA teams rely on one-on-one play down the stretch of tight games. So, can this player use the drive/pass/shoot threat to effectively manipulate opposing defenses at crunchtime? Can this star lead his team to victory with controlled, high-percentage, high-IQ plays under pressure?

2. Does this player have a positive impact on the on-and-off court culture of his club? Basketball is a team game and rhythm sport, so a selfish star can spiral a team in the wrong direction. A good attitude is contagious. That's a cold you want to catch. 

3. Is this player consistently healthy?

(I'm not even going to mention physical ability because that's a given on this list, right? Well, I guess I just mentioned it anyway.) All right, let's go...

THE NEXT WAVE (Not there yet)

Devin Booker, SG, Phoenix Suns:  I mean, the kid scored 70 points in a game this year. Seventy!! And...he's 20 years old. And...I specifically remember that LeBron endorsed him prior to this season; handpicked him as a future superstar to watch. D-Book is one of those rare all-around scoring machines -- has plenty of range beyond the arc, can get to the cup and isn't afraid to lean on his deadly midrange game. His shot fakes and spacing techniques are scarily mature for his age.

Nikola Jokic, PF/C, Denver Nuggets:  Almost carried the under-the-radar Nuggets to the 8th seed in the West. Head coach Mike Malone nearly crushed Jokic's confidence during the first half of the season -- constantly changing his rotation and neglecting to consider complementary skillsets -- but the second half was an entirely different story. Jusuf Nurkic was dealt to the Blazers, Malone handed the keys over to Jokic and it became his team. He's an extremely talented all-around performer, and the Nuggets know who their Guy is going forward. 

Andrew Wiggins, SF, Minnesota Timberwolves:  Averaged 23.6 points per game this season after 20.7 last year and 16.9 before that. He's developing rapidly as a scorer, but why can't he generate wins playing alongside the ultra-talented Karl-Anthony Towns? These young Wolves need to figure out the fourth quarter. I'm surprised Tom Thibodeau wasn't able to help in year one. 

Hassan Whiteside, C, Miami Heat:  Can be a dominant two-way monster in the paint when he's on his game. His issues are unnecessary fouls and various injuries. Will continue to develop into an elite big under the tutelage of Pat Riley and Erik Spoelstra

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Joel Embiid, C, Philadelphia 76ers:  I cannot believe how good this kid was. We had heard the hype and background noise during a couple seasons lost to injury, but I never expected him to average 20.2 points per game in just 25 minutes per night as a rookie. Simply incredible! He's a seven-footer with a beautiful midrange stroke, who also stretches beyond the arc with shocking comfort. In the paint, he's a Mutombo-esque eraser. "The Process" is under way, and the end result could be a dominant NBA superstar. 

HONORABLE MENTION

Draymond Green, F/C, Golden State Warriors:  Draymond can be annoying, and he relishes the "bad guy," big-mouth role, but I'd take him on my team any day of the week. As we know, he impacts the game as an all-around player, but I think his greatest strengths are on the defensive end. His foot speed, quickness and sheer effort provide him with the versatility to guard all five positions. Golden State's offense would still thrive without him, but its defense would not. He's just barely outside of my top 25 because as you will see, no role players made the final cut. He is the best role player in the game, though.

Paul Millsap, PF, Atlanta Hawks:  The guy is just a pure professional. He's tough, gets the absolute most out of his limited athleticism and plays smart, technical basketball. Millsap is a reliable midrange shooter who can also hit threes, rebound on both ends and block shots when you least expect it. He's a winning player.

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Kyle Lowry, PG, Toronto Raptors:  Critics are tough on him because of his consistently disappointing postseason showings, but I think it's a matter of lacking the pure talent of the Russell Westbrook's, Chris Paul's and Kyrie Irving's of the world. Lowry puts up big numbers throughout the regular season because he always plays hard and leaves it all on the floor, but the playoffs aren't simply about that. Playing hard with some talent isn't enough to dominate in the NBA playoffs. Lowry is small and less gifted than the game's true superstars. However, like his predecessor Millsap, he gets the most out of his body and skillset. And you know what, people always seem to knock the Raptors, but they always end up in the playoffs, don't they? There's something to be said about the combined leadership of Lowry and DeMar DeRozan.

JOHNNY FRO'S TOP 25 NBA PLAYERS

25. C.J. McCollum, G, Blazers:  Hard not to love this kid. Class act all the way, super coachable, with a neck-snapping release -- blink and he's getting that jumper off in your eye. As I've written about him in the past, C.J. came into the league a little overweight and without a position, but in just a couple years he slimmed down, boosted his quickness and found confidence to rival his gun-slinging backcourt mate, Damian Lillard.

I think Dame and head coach Terry Stotts deserve some credit for McCollum's astonishingly quick development from a lost reserve to one of the world's premier perimeter shooting assassins. Confidence is the name of the game for shooters, and McCollum clearly has teammates and coaches who implore him to shoot the rock when the ball touches his hands. 

Just a random food-for-thought question...if you swapped Lowry and DeRozan for Lillard and McCollum, could the Raptors knock off the Cavs? Point being...reputation is a matter of circumstance. Statistical production in the NBA is also (often) a matter of circumstance. Lillard and McCollum are the backcourt of a back-end West playoff team, a reality that turns them into afterthoughts on "best" lists. In a vacuum, I'd take Lillard and McCollum over DeRozan and Lowry, even though the latter pair consistently earns a higher seed in the postseason.

24. Mike Conley, PG, Grizzlies:  Just a consummate all-around pro. Can dribble, drive and finish effectively with both hands, which makes him a constant headache for opposing defenses. Conley is quick, a solid perimeter shooter and savvy defensive player. He's the engine that makes the Grizz go; unfortunately, they are never talented enough to get over the hump in the playoffs. Nevertheless, Conley is one of those talented class acts that any team would welcome in a heartbeat. He leads by example, as well. 

23. Gordon Hayward, SG/SF, Jazz:  Hayward is a very, very good player, but also a strange one. He's displayed incredibly consistent development since losing to my UConn Huskies in the NCAA Tournament as a key member of Brad Stevens' Butler squad, but I don't think he's all the way there yet. That said, Stevens' Celtics are preparing to throw a boatload of money at him this offseason. I'm not sure Hayward's offensive style would necessarily complement Isaiah Thomas, but that's a story for a different day.

As far as Hayward's game, I think he lost a bit of his identity this season with George Hill running the point. Hill is an unselfish passer and wonderful teammate, but the sheer fact that he handles the ball has tinkered with Hayward's offensive game. In preceding seasons, Utah's lack of a quality point guard forced Hayward to handle the ball more, which in turn expanded his offensive repertoire. Many guards/swingmen produce better with the ball in their hands, which is why I wonder if Hayward could stomach Isaiah's ball dominance. 

I really like Hayward's skillset and demeanor, but you know how proven stars simply know what their shots are? Like, we saw the same moves from Michael Jordan, Kobe Bryant and Paul Pierce time and time again, right? Well, Hayward hasn't reached that stage of his career yet. He's still kind of taking opportunities as they come. To get into my top 15 or even 20, he'll have to define his game more. Maybe he will, maybe he won't. Will probably depend on which team he signs with long-term. 

22. Bradley Beal, SG, Wizards:  It's funny because Beal has exactly what Hayward doesn't -- a fully-defined offensive repertoire. To me, Beal has always fallen under the "pure scorer" category, but this season he really backed it up with statistical output. He went from 15.3 points per game in 2014-15, to 17.4 then 23.1 this year, ahead of big names like Klay Thompson, Blake Griffin and Carmelo Anthony

Perhaps even more importantly, his field goal percentage jumped from 42.7 to 44.9, then all the way to 48.2. This is a perimeter player improving to a shooting percentage that we see from some bigs who play 2 to 5 feet from the hoop. That's a reflection of the definition of Beal's game. He's a smooth three-point shooter, with an elite midrange game and the ability to score at the cup with both hands. 

Head coach Scott Brooks quickly instituted the same, simple philosophy that he leaned on in Oklahoma City with Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook: I'm going to put the ball in the hands of my top two offensive players, and let them do whatever they want. Total freedom to carry the offense. In this case, Beal's partner-in-crime is of course, John Wall. It's worked out well for Washington, as they have advanced to the second round of the playoffs in Brooks' first year on the job, a feat that has proved daunting in the past. In the end, I'm a big Beal fan, but in order to move into my top 20, he needs to produce more in other categories and stay consistently healthy, year over year. 

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21. Kemba Walker, PG, Hornets:  This is a tough sell because the Hornets were completely out of the limelight this season. Last year they were a spunky underdog and scrappy sensation winning a befuddling 48 games, but this season they went back to being Kemba Walker and a bunch of scrubs. As I predicted, that had a lot to do with the departures of Jeremy Lin and Courtney Lee

Anyway, Kemba is essentially the less glamorous, right-handed version of Isaiah Thomas. And no, that is not a backhanded insult; that is absolutely a compliment. He's a confident and electric one-on-one scorer who can often carry an entire offense, particularly in the 4th quarter. However, he simply didn't have the supporting personnel necessary to return to the playoffs this year. 

And let's be real -- McCollum, Conley, Hayward, Beal and Kemba clearly aren't separated by much, if anything at all. So I'm giving Kemba the ever-so-slight edge because it's more difficult to average 23.2 points per game (a career high) when the opposing defense knows you are a one-man band. The preceding four get far superior support from talented teammates. Kemba also has that no-fear, killer instinct at crunchtime. Michael Jordan should be able to recognize that quality in a player, right?

20. Blake Griffin, PF, Clippers:  First thing that comes to mind is...I'm not sure how much longer we'll be seeing "Los Angeles Clippers" next to Blake's name. I understand why Doc Rivers wants to keep the gang together -- it's painfully difficult to rebuild a franchise to the point where you have a superstar duo like Blake and Chris Paul together for an extended period of time -- but at the same time, it may simply be time for change. I've been defending the Clippers' talent level for years now, but one way or another (usually by injury) they fall short of expectations. As a free agent, Blake has awesome options like the Rockets, Thunder or Celtics (cap permitting). It will take a masterful pitch to keep him a Clipper.

As a player, talent wise, Griffin is definitely one of the top 12 to 15 in the game. He's still an athletic freak with incredible footwork and full-court speed for his size, but my favorite aspects of his game are his pure basketball skills: Plus dribbler, passer, midrange shooter and all-around scorer for his position. He's an excellent rebounder when engaged as well, though he tends to defer to DeAndre Jordan (because that overrated bum has to do something, right?). Blake has even expanded out beyond the three-point line, a la Al Horford, Brook Lopez and Marc Gasol. Bigs are evolving these days.

In the end, I have Blake ranked 20th because he can't stay healthy. As I mentioned in the intro, that's going to be a major factor on my list this season (and really should be every year). Last year he knocked himself out for the season punching out a team employee. That's childish, reckless and detrimental to your team. Totally unprofessional. This year it was a broken toe derailing the Clippers' hopes of a deep run in the postseason. Blake will play well wherever he ends up, but will he be on the court when it matters the most?

19. Klay Thompson, SG, Warriors:  Klay can be a bit of a polarizing figure; some view him as a top 10 all-around player -- Charles Barkley even ranked him ahead of his two-time MVP teammate, Steph Curry -- while others pigeonhole him under the category of "shooter." I'm somewhere in the middle; as I tend to be. I think Klay is the second-best perimeter shooter in the world, and one of the greatest pure shooters of all time, but I don't view him as a standalone franchise player. He'd be a lights out shooter on any team in the NBA, but his overall value is at its peak on a team like the Warriors, playing alongside ball-dominant superstars like Steph and Kevin Durant

The situation he's been fortunate enough to blossom in has allowed him to gradually become a big name with both fans and analysts of the NBA. He's deserving of his stature because of the Warriors' success and his integral role in that success, but for the purposes of a list like this, I personally prefer a guy who can carry you by himself. Isn't that the true definition of a superstar? Isn't that was separates a franchise player from an all-star role player? Klay's average ballhandling and passing (if I'm being polite) make it impossible for him to carry you as a standalone. He needs fastbreaks, screens and/or set plays to get the looks he thrives upon. That's not a knock; it's simply categorizing him properly as a basketball player. I guess, if I'm being fair and consistent, that makes Klay the premier role player in the game, and not Draymond who I ranked 26th.

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In conclusion, I was reading this article the other day and Danny Chau wrote, "After 12 undefeated games thus far in the Warriors’ postseason run, there’s one question my mind keeps circling back to. It doesn’t have anything to do with LeBron James or the Cavaliers, or the whereabouts of Steve Kerr or Klay Thompson." That final line certainly caught my attention. I've been watching the NBA Playoffs as intently as ever, but has Klay really played THAT poorly? Poorly enough to be considered a missing person?

Upon review of Klay's postseason gamelog, it's overtly clear that he hasn't been himself these playoffs. He averaged 22.3 points per game during the regular season, yet has only had ONE playoff game with 22 or more points (game 3 against the Blazers, where he went an underwhelming 8-of-21 for 24 points). That's ONE game out of 12. And we've seen this from him in the playoffs before. When he gets really hot he goes unconscious -- like the end of game 6 against the Thunder last year -- but in general, he's a little weird. Shot selection is a little off, shot making is off. He's just not as good in the playoffs so far. Klay's just a super role player in my eyes. 

Sorry, Chuck. 


18. Jimmy Butler, SG/SF, Bulls:  See, this is what I mean about circumstance. With a healthy Rajon Rondo, the Bulls were up 2-0 against the reeling Boston Celtics -- boasting two impressive road victories! -- and well on their way to one of the bigger postseason upsets in NBA history. Sure, this year's Celtics are one of the weakest 1 seeds of all time, but nevertheless we were on our way to an 8 over 1, ultra-rare upset. But, as we know, Rondo went down and the Celtics ran off four consecutive wins. 

So where does Jimmy Butler factor into all this? Well, what would people be saying about Butler if the much-maligned, dysfunctional Bulls ripped off a shocking series upset over a 1 seed?

"Jimmy Butler is a true franchise player." "Jimmy Butler is an ELITE two-way player." "Jimmy Butler is the most underrated superstar in the NBA."

That's what happens when things break your way. All of the question marks turn into exclamation points. All of the knocks seem to fade out of discussion. 

Jimmy Butler is a tough, athletic swingman who can drive, defend and has continued to improve his perimeter shooting throughout his NBA career. During the regular season, he averaged 23.9 points, 6.2 rebounds, 5.5 assists and 1.9 steals per game. If the Bulls were a top 3 seed with a better season story, he'd be a legitimate MVP candidate, right? 

That's why it's all relative. For example, I'm going to rank Damian Lillard 12th on this list. Skill for skill, how much better than Butler is he? If you decide to place more weight on individual defense than I do, can you even rank Lillard ahead of Butler? I think a deadly one-on-one scorer is the hardest thing to find, but maybe you don't. Circumstance and subjectivity. 

Long story short, I'm giving Jimmy the nod over Klay because I can give him the ball and say, "Drive to the hoop here and draw some contact. Get me a high-percentage attack of the rim."

17. DeMarcus Cousins, PF/C, Pelicans:  As I say every time, DeMarcus Cousins is one of the most talented basketball players in the world. He is a stat stuffer and fantasy darling. But, at the end of the day, I'm tired of his shit. His teams don't win, and his childish behavior is a disabling distraction, on and off the court. It's the same old story with this guy. I'm not going to go on forever here.

16. Paul George, F, Pacers:  Here, I'm forced to go back to circumstance. When you bring in Jeff Teague and Thaddeus Young -- two guys who aren't shy about looking for their own shot -- you know you are impeding Paul George's ability to control your offense. And if you anoint Paul George your Franchise Player, you want him to be the focal point of your offense, right?

"PG" averaged a career-high 23.7 points per game on 46.1% shooting this season, but he didn't make "the leap" like the aforementioned Beal, Towns, DeRozan and Antetokounmpo. He merely jumped from 23.1 ppg to 23.7 because his surrounding cast restricted his overall opportunity to shine. 

Look, I'm not going to go on forever here either, because I feel like a lot of these players are similar in terms of talent and statistical production. At the end of the day, Paul George is a great all-around basketball player who needs to make a savvy decision in free agency. Pick the right spot and he can ascend into the top 10. Go the wrong route, and he could fall as low as 20 or 25. Circumstance. 

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15. Karl-Anthony Towns, C, Wolves:  25.1 points, 12.3 rebounds, 1.3 blocks and 1.2 threes per game...for a 21-year old center. 

I mean...seriously? The kid's a freak. 

Super nice, super coachable. I'm truly shocked that the Timberwolves were as bad as they were this season. With Towns -- who on paper, is an undeniable superstar -- and Andrew Wiggins who is an electric scorer, I really thought they'd compete for a playoff spot with Tom Thibodeau at the helm. Maybe his stern, old school ways aren't right for this young group of players. Time will tell. Small sample size so far. 

Anyway, there isn't much doubt that "KAT" is going to quickly become a top 10 overall player. He's a one in a million talent with as high an upside as I've ever seen. Maybe Zach LaVine's season-ending injury is what ultimately derailed the Wolves. I dunno. I'm still scratching my head over their utter lack of success, given the pure skill and talent they have. 

Maybe as the old saying goes, they just don't know how to win yet. They better be better next year. If they aren't, maybe raw talent isn't as important as it once was. 

14. DeMar DeRozan, SG/SF, Raptors:  I'm just going to get this right out in the open...I am NOT a DeMar DeRozan guy, by any stretch of the imagination -- but as the years fly by, I'm trying harder and harder to be as unbiased as humanly possible. 

DeMar DeRozan had an OUTSTANDING 2016-17 season. His 27.3 points per game trailed only Westbrook, Harden, Isaiah and Anthony Davis, and he shot a truly surprising 46.7% from the floor. This is a guy who shot 42.2% in 2011-12, 42.9 in 13-14 and 41.3 in 14-15. This drastically improved efficiency indicates DeMar's conscious effort to improve shot selection and drive to the rack with even greater frequency. DeMar's usually among the leaders in free throw attempts, and I love a scorer who racks up easy points at the charity stripe. 

In another era he might be viewed as a front-line superstar, but backcourt play is too crowded these days. There are a scary number of immensely talented shooting guards and swingmen. I mean, DeMar efficiently scored more points per game than LeBron, Kawhi, Steph and Durant

Does anyone talk about him like he belongs in that group?

13. Giannis Antetokounmpo, G/F, Bucks:  Man, I gotta tell ya, the advanced scouts got this one right. You wanna read something depressing? How about a quick glance at this: 

The latest evidence comes out of Dallas. The Mavericks owned the 13th pick in that 2013 draft, and president of basketball operations Donnie Nelson wanted Antetokounmpo, according to The Dallas Morning News' Eddie Sefko

Owner Mark Cuban shot that idea down. Instead of using the 13th pick, the Mavs traded down to select point guard Shane Larkin with the 18th pick, as the Mavs hoped a little salary savings could help them pay a free agent that summer. Dwight Howard was the main target, but it didn't happen. And while Larkin was involved in the trade that helped Dallas acquire Tyson Chandler this offseason, hindsight says the Mavericks missed an opportunity.


Cuban is still confident that he made the right call.
"He's making us look bad for sticking to our plan," Cuban said Tuesday. "The whole point was that I wanted to stick to the plan and Donnie was like, this guy's going to be good. I'll risk everything that he's going to be good. I said, 'I believe you Donnie.'
Ouch. Anyway, a lot of teams and scouts felt that way about Giannis from the get go. When I first saw "The Greek Freak" in game action, I wasn't quite sure what position he would end up playing. I mean, who wants a swingman who can't really shoot these days?

But, young Giannis has rapidly developed into a hybrid point guard, a la LeBron James and James Harden. They aren't ONLY point guards, but they can dribble, drive, penetrate, dish and score in a seemingly endless variety of ways. 

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Giannis Antetokounmpo is a special, special player, and he's still only 22 years old. He averaged 22.9 points, 8.8 rebounds, 5.4 assists, 1.9 blocks and 1.6 steals per game. Honestly, I don't even know what to say about that. 

Giannis and Towns undoubtedly represent the next wave of NBA megastars. 

12. Damian Lillard, PG, Blazers:  Damian Lillard is a showstopper. His swag is undeniable, and he's simply one of those ballers who has no fear of The Moment. Some very talented players hesitate, and Dame just ain't one of them. 

Only Steph Curry can rival Dame's seemingly-unlimited range beyond the arc, and his release is equally as blinding. Lillard is a flashy ballhandler with slippery ability in the paint, I just wish he'd stay more committed to the drive. Of course, the flip side for undersized drivers is nagging injuries, a la Allen Iverson, Kyrie Irving and recently Isaiah Thomas. But, Lillard would be utterly unstoppable if he drove as frequently as say, Harden, DeRozan or Kyrie. 

Nevertheless, he's still a showstopping scorer. His long-term outlook is very simple: (1) He has to use the constant threat of his own shot to increase his assist average from 5+ to 9+ and (2) The Blazers will never go deep into the playoffs until their leaders become consistent defenders. I'm telling you, defense is all about effort. You think Damian Lillard lacks the physical ability to be an excellent NBA defender?

Of course he doesn't. He's lighting-quick, ultra-athletic and swift enough to maneuver around screens. There's no physical reason why he shouldn't be an impact defender at the point guard position. It's simply a matter of mental commitment. To this point in his impressive career, Dame has not shown that commitment, and the Blazers are limited because of that. That's why he's not in my top 10. 

11. John Wall, PG, Wizards:  What an incredible season this kid had. As a former No. 1 overall selection, we've always known about Wall's all-world skillset, but this year he really put it all together. Please do not give more credit to "The Robot" Scott Brooks than you should. 

John Wall is absolutely one of the premier passers and playmakers in the game -- his 10.7 assists per game were second-best in the league -- and his breakneck ballhandling makes him a recurring nightmare in transition. 

I love the way he keeps his entire team in rhythm. Ultimately, he's falling just shy of my top 10 because he's not as consistent a defender as he should be, and he can't shoot like the superstars in my top group. You know me...in the closing moments of a critical game...is the opposition petrified about leaving you open? Sure, he hit this one to push the East semifinals to a Game 7 (and it was awesome), but he closed that Game 7 going 0-of-10 from the floor. Does a top 10 player go 0 for 10 with the season on the line?

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10. Isaiah Thomas, PG, Celtics:  I feel like I've been talking about this guy allllll postseason, non stop. Sam Ytuarte, Jimmy Kelly, Andrew Meyer, Steve Summer and I have been engaged in a heated, ongoing debate about Isaiah's place in the landscape of the league, and more specifically, his ability under pressure in comparison to LeBron James

My stance is as follows...Game 7 of the NBA Finals...less than 2 minutes remaining...you need to lean on one player to make big shots for you -- and more often than not, opposing defenses will force you into perimeter attempts under those circumstances (think about Michael Jordan or Kobe Bryant in those spots) -- who do you go to in today's NBA?

In the past, we would quickly say "Michael." After that we'd say "Kobe." Does everyone really say "LeBron" now?

LeBron James is the best basketball player in the world; no questions asked. (Yes, I just gave away the No. 1 spot on my list, but who is really surprised?) But...he's not necessarily "The Guy" under the circumstances I've laid out. Furthermore, what about clutch scenarios when his team falls behind and really seems lost -- like Game 4 against the Celtics, when Boston went up 16 early, carrying over their momentum from their gritty Game 3 victory -- was LeBron the one who took the ball and said, I'm single-handedly going to get us out of this hole?

No, he wasn't. Kyrie Irving was The One who stepped up, and we've seen that storyline before.

He doesn't have blind confidence, and that's exactly what I'm looking for in those types of situations. Not blind, reckless confidence -- like say, Russell Westbrook -- but blind, controlled confidence like Kyrie, Kawhi Leonard and Isaiah. And that's exactly what I told Sam Ytuarte: Final two minutes? I'm taking 1. Kyrie 2. Kawhi 3. Isaiah and 4. LeBron in that order.

To be honest, from a mental standpoint, I think Kemba Walker and Damian Lillard have more confidence than LeBron in those situations as well, but they don't have the postseason track record, and if I'm going to take one guy WITHOUT the track record, I'm taking Isaiah because he's been setting 4th quarter scoring records over the course of the past two seasons.

As far as full-game stats, in the past three seasons, "IT2" has jumped from 15.2 points per game, to 22.2 and now 28.9 on 46.3% shooting (both career highs). His 28.9 ppg were third only to Westbrook and James Harden, our two leading MVP candidates. The clear reality is that Isaiah Thomas is a rapidly-developing scoring machine who is accelerating toward his apex. He stretches you out with the range of his three-point stroke, then slithers inside around screens for deadly midrange jumpers. Although he's listed at just 5'9" -- which we all know, means he's probably shorter -- he has no fear of engaging the "trees" and attacking the rim.

If I find the time, I'll whip up another article fleshing out the LeBron/Isaiah clutch debate.

9. Kyrie Irving, PG, Cavs:  I mean, many of you already know how I feel about Kyrie Irving. He's my favorite player in the world. He has the magic, intangible "it" factor. I've fleshed out my opinions about him a couple of times in the past, so I'll borrow from the last time:

How many players in the world can consistently get all the way to the rim with their right or left, draw fouls, post-up, pull-up, hit mid-range shots with ease, fade-aways and hit threes? That's how rare Kyrie is -- he's the perfect offensive machine. Not to mention that he has balls of steel and is an immensely entertaining player to watch. Kyrie's the man; you can't convince me otherwise.

That just about sums him up. The reasons he isn't higher on the list are strikingly similar to Damian Lillard's: Doesn't use his uncanny scoring ability to open up opportunities for his teammates (just 5.8 assists per game for a ball-dominant "point guard") and rarely shows commitment to the defensive end of the floor. He saves it for the NBA Finals, haha. In a vacuum, you need all three of those qualities to be a franchise player. Right now, Kyrie is part of a perfect duo with LeBron, one hand washes the other, but what if they separate down the line? Can Kyrie propel an entire franchise the way LeBron does? 

No, I don't believe he can, and that's the difference between the top 10 and top 5. 

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8. Anthony Davis, PF/C, Pelicans:  In terms of pure talent, "AD" is probably top 5, but he hasn't been a winner at the NBA level and his injury history is simply unacceptable. Regardless, he's one of the most freakish players to ever lace up basketball sneakers. The best way to show you how SCARY this kid is, is to highlight some of his individual games from this season:

October 26th against the Nuggets: 50 points, 15 rebounds, 5 assists, 5 steals, 4 blocks with only 3 turnovers. 

October 28th, his very next game, against the WARRIORS: 45 points, 17 rebounds, 2 steals, 2 blocks and only 1 turnover!

November 23rd against the Wolves: 45 points and 10 rebounds. 

November 29th against the Lakers: 41 points and 16 rebounds. 

January 9th against the Knicks: 40 points and 18 rebounds. 

All-Star Game: 52 points and 10 rebounds. That's just for shits and giggles. 

March 11th against the Hornets: 46 points and 21 rebounds!

And, as a throw-in, he had a 59 and 20 game against Andre Drummond (a tough match-up) and the Pistons last year. Check out this interesting article about the scope of AD's statistical production. 

I don't need to interpret these numbers for you. With his length, speed, quickness, athleticism and pure basketball talent, Anthony Davis is doing things that past bigs would never have dreamed of. He's an athletic and statistical freak. Plain and simple. 

7. Chris Paul, PG, Clippers:  Chris Paul is a basketball savant. He's a complete player who controls games and manipulates opposing defenses, a la LeBron James. I love Chris Paul's skill, tenacity and mind for the game. When I begin to write about him, my mind gets pulled in 100 different directions. 

I think, to the general public, that he has the reputation as a guy who simply can't get it done. To me, that makes him one of those tragic sports figures like Ted Williams, Dan Marino, Charles Barkley, Karl Malone, John Stockton, Patrick Ewing, Jim Kelly, and to a lesser extent, former local stars Carlos Beltran and Stephon Marbury.

I HATE when the media and public have loftier expectations of an athlete than they should. If a guy never wins a championship and has one or two bad moments under pressure, his career ends up defined by those individual failures. Yes, Beltran struck out looking to end the 2006 NLCS, but he also hit 8 homers in a single postseason for the Astros, which tied Barry Bonds' record at the time. Statistically, he's actually one of the best postseason performers of his era. 

Well, the same could be said of Chris Paul. He's had a couple of bad moments, sprinkled somewhere within hundreds and hundreds of smart, clutch plays. He knocked the defending-champion Spurs out with a Game 7 winner on one leg. For his postseason career -- nine total appearances -- CP3 has averaged 21.4 points, 9.4 assists, 2.2 steals and 1.5 threes per game on incredible 48.4% shooting from the floor. This is a guy who averages only 18.7 points on 47.3% shooting during the regular season, so he has always turned it up a notch in the playoffs. Compare him to guards like Harden and Westbrook, whose playoff shooting percentages dip dramatically. 

Chris Paul has all of the attributes of a player you want to carry you under duress. He's a legendary ballhandler and passer, and his midrange jumper is automatic. He weaves through defenders going both right and left, while keeping his turnovers down. He's never afraid to take and make a big three. He only attempts 3.2 threes per game during the regular season, but has averaged over 5 attempts per game in each of his past four postseason runs. He doesn't shy away from The Moment. He wants to shoulder greater responsibility, and does so with skill and crazy efficiency. 

I'll always be a CP3 guy, but in the end, I agree with those who say the Clippers are cursed. No matter what, they just can't seem to get it done. What bothers me are the idiots who blame him for the failure. Chris Paul is one of the greatest all-around basketball players of our generation, on lazy regular season nights AND pressure-packed playoff platforms. 

6. Stephen Curry, PG, Warriors:  I really, really wanted to rank Steph 4th overall because I'm pissed at the next two guys on the list. What's holding me back is the reality that the next two are simply better all-around basketball players. Nevertheless, there's no doubt in my mind that Steph Curry is the best shooter in the history of the sport. His perimeter shot versatility is unparalleled, as he can dribble full-speed into pull-up threes, sprint around screens and/or hit wild contested fadeaways. There is no 3-ball he isn't comfortable with.

At the end of the day, so much has been written about Steph that I find him a boring topic, so I'll summarize by saying that he's the best version of the Kyle Lowry, Kemba Walker, Damian Lillard, Isaiah Thomas and Kyrie Irving point guard group. Stylistically, they are all similar smallish, shoot-first point guards, and Steph is the best of the best. He just doesn't have the physicality or potential solo dominance of the superstars in my top five.

5. James Harden, G, Rockets:  Throughout the regular season, I was 100% confident that James Harden was the second-best basketball player in the world. I'm not talking about MVP voting or the race with Westbrook, I'm talking about ranking the best players in the game (like, LeBron isn't going to win MVP, but he is the best player). 

And I'll admit it, Harden tricks me. Every regular season I absolutely love tuning in to his games. He toys with opposing defenses with his drives, passes, finishes, free throws and jumpers. This year Mike D'Antoni rightfully gave him the keys to the Porsche, and "The Beard" responded by running the offense to the tune of one of the greatest statistical seasons in the history of the game. Harden is the perfect offensive machine. 

But, the playoffs rolled around, and the real James Harden reared his ugly head once again. A couple of years ago, I pointed out that he acts strange during the postseason, and his disappointing numbers support that sentiment. I'll make this as simple as possible: He doesn't play the way he does during the regular season. Harden seems relaxed, smooth and unstoppable throughout the regular season. His posture, demeanor and swag indicate that he knows he can get whatever drive, kick or shot he wants. No team defense can stop him because he's such a willing passer once he penetrates into the lane. 

That James Harden doesn't exist in the playoffs. When the going gets tough, Harden starts to act like he doesn't care. Drives to the hoop in slow motion, makes lazy passes, takes contested long twos and threes. Is that the mark of a legitimate superstar? Is that the attitude you want from your franchise player?

No one needs to bother answering those questions. In Game 6 of the Western Conference semifinals, with the Rockets' season on the line and Kawhi Leonard out of commission for the Spurs, Harden responded with 10 points on 2-of-11 shooting, to go along with 6 turnovers and 6 fouls. This is a player who averaged 29.1 points per game this season, 29.0 the year before that, and so on. 

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You get the idea. Harden already had the record for most turnovers in a postseason game. He's a loser. He folds under pressure. He lets his teammates down. He doesn't have the heart of a champion. He should be the second-best basketball player on the planet, but I'm ranking him 5th because I wouldn't want him on my team in a big game. I'm done wasting words on this punk. 

4. Russell Westbrook, PG, Thunder:  Here's another guy who just doesn't get it. Like Harden, Westbrook had one of the greatest statistical seasons in the history of basketball, but has similar postseason troubles. I say "similar" because both Harden and Westbrook play below their potential in the playoffs, but the specific nature of their failures is different. 

Harden gets passive. He shies away from the pressure, while Russ runs straight for it. He wants to do everything. He wants to push the ball faster than any player to come before him. He wants to take and make every single shot for his team. He wants to dominate every individual stat category. 

But it doesn't work out that way because Russ fails to understand the concept of shot selection. He's been in the NBA for 9 seasons, and he still doesn't know a good shot from a bad one. You can't be a champion until you understand what good basketball is. Russell Westbrook takes all of the shots he can get off, but Russell Westbrook is the most (or second-most) physically unstoppable athlete in the league. You can see why that's a problem. Just because you can get a shot off, doesn't mean you should take it; so when you can get any single shot you want, things can really spiral out of control. 

And that's Russ in a nutshell. Physically, he's either the best or second-best player in the world. He's faster, more explosive and determined than anyone. He can do it all on the court. But he lets his emotions get the best of him. He loses trust in his teammates. He doesn't choose his shots wisely, especially when the game is close late. 

If you go back and review the tape, the Thunder actually had a shot to beat the Rockets this postseason. Player for player, Houston was a MUCH better team, but Russ is the great equalizer. OKC had chances to steal multiple wins, but Russ made the wrong plays at the wrong times. Forcing up long threes early in the shot clock, driving into triple teams and refusing to pass, etc. Make some mental adjustments, dude!

Russell Westbrook will never be postseason great, unless he learns how to play basketball the right way. That's a sad thought for a 9-year veteran, isn't it?

3. Kawhi Leonard, SF, Spurs:  You couldn't create a more perfect basketball concoction in a lab. Kawhi Leonard is a flawless basketball robot: He's big, strong, agile, long, talented, confident and coachable. He's a coach's dream AND a teammate's dream. He's the total package on both ends of the floor. 

I mean, I want to feel bad for the Spurs that he went down at exactly the wrong time against the Warriors, but San Antonio has had plenty of incredible fortune in the past. Maybe they were due for a bad break. Anyway, Kawhi was already an NBA Finals MVP in the past, and he has only gotten better and better since then. 

I never thought he would become the type of franchise player who you could just give the ball to and say, okay, take this home for us, but Kawhi has really developed as a ballhandler and primary playmaker. He's a student of the game with the best teacher of them all, Gregg Popovich

Try to knock Kawhi's game. Go ahead. Seriously. He's a super-high percentage three-point shooter, a super high-percentage midrange shooter, strong finisher of both dunks and lay-ups, improved ballhandler, excellent free throw shooter and multiple-time Defensive Player of the Year. 

Kawhi Leonard leads by example and is a role model in the ilk of Derek Jeter. Just a class act and consummate professional. If Kawhi had stayed healthy and the Spurs pulled off that Game 1 upset of the Warriors on the road -- which it certainly seemed like they were going to do -- who knows? Maybe they would have shocked the world and knocked off the Warriors. 

But like I've been saying all along...circumstance. A poorly-timed injury derails your once promising season. All of these rankings and standings are so delicate. Seasons and franchises can crumble due to devastating injuries. Hopefully Kawhi will come back at 100% next season, and he'll have the opportunity to move up to the No. 2 overall spot. 

2. Kevin Durant, F, Warriors:  Basketball had never before seen a player like Kevin Durant. He's an alien. As a seven-footer with a true center's wingspan, in the old days he'd be playing 2 to 3 feet from the hoop. 

But not KD...KD is a seven-footer (yes, he finally admitted that he's 7 feet tall with his basketball sneakers on) who dribbles like a point guard, shoots like a shooting guard, defends like a forward and blocks shots like a center. I mean seriously, what is that? He's definitely an alien. 

You've all seen Kevin Durant play before; tell me this...how can a guy who shoots so many outside shots be connecting on 53.7% from the floor? How is that humanly possible? He's a 48.8% lifetime shooter, but in the past five seasons he shot 51.0, 50.3, 51.0, 50.5 and of course, 53.7. There's no such thing as efficiency like that when a player is often far from the rim (KD attempted 5.0 threes per game this season, 6.7 last year). 

I could go on for days about this guy, but I'm getting tired of writing. My only knock on him is injuries; but he's more talented than Kawhi, and his mental makeup is a happy medium between Harden and Westbrook, so he truly belongs at the No. 2 spot. It's crazy that the Warriors have 3 of the greatest shooters of all time in the same starting lineup. Unfair. 

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1. LeBron James, G/F, Cavs:  If you don't think LeBron James is the best all-around basketball player on the planet, then you are an idiot. Goodbye.

So that concludes my list...please bring on the heated debates!

Tuesday, April 11, 2017

2017 New York Mets: My Suggestions For Improving Offensive Production

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At 2-3 with a handful of pathetic offensive performances under their collective belt, I was already prepared to stop watching the 2017 New York Mets; not because I don't believe in them long-term -- in fact, I predicted that they would return to the World Series (and lose) -- but because stranding runners in scoring position is the most frustrating thing in the world. 

No one strands runners in scoring position as frequently as the Mets. I just can't handle it emotionally. 

However, I kept watching (as always) and was pleasantly surprised by back-to-back competitive victories over the Marlins and Phillies. Sunday night's game was tight at 3-2, but New York was able to pull away with timely bombs from Jay Bruce and Michael Conforto

Good sign #1: Tacking on runs when ahead. 

Last night was even better, thanks to controversial headhunting and Bruce's lefty-on-lefty f**k you blast in the 8th, which put the Mets ahead 4-2, after trailing 2-0 in the early going. Jacob deGrom was shaky out of the gate -- no thanks to poor defensive reads by Jose Reyes and Curtis Granderson -- but a critical 1-2-3 double play allowed deGrom to escape a potentially damning hole. From there, the Mets were able to hang in until Bruce provided two momentum-swinging shots. 

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Good sign #2: Fighting back from an early deficit. 

Unfortunately, the construction of the batting order is still a disaster. The Mets can optimize their win total with the correct full-time starters hitting in the appropriate lineup slots. Here's my list of suggestions:

1. Conforto should be the everyday centerfielder. Granderson still has pop in his bat, but he rarely squares a ball up. His at bat quality is unacceptable. He often goes down on 3 or 4 pitches. He's old and his days as a full-time player are likely over. 

2. Wilmer Flores should be the everyday third baseman. An aging Reyes should be a 2B/SS/3B utility man at this stage of his career. The Mets could also release Reyes and call up Matt Reynolds for that role. I like Reynolds' versatility and professionalism.

3. Asdrubal Cabrera should lead off. Neither Reyes or Granderson get on base enough to occupy such a crucial spot in the lineup. 

4. Here's my everyday lineup:

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1. Asdrubal Cabrera - SS
2. Michael Conforto - CF
3. Yoenis Cespedes - LF
4. Jay Bruce - RF
5. Neil Walker - 2B
6. Wilmer Flores - 3B
7. Lucas Duda - 1B
8. Travis d'Arnaud - C

What do my fellow Mets fans think about that?