Story By: Mr. Adel Burton
The 2023 NBA Draft is a time when
dreams come true for NBA prospects. A
time for Fanatics of all 30 teams to work themselves up into a frenzy over the
new player that is going to lead or put their franchise over the top for a
championship. If you have seen as much basketball as I have in 30 years of
playing, coaching and watching the sport then you know that some of these
players were over-drafted, and some were under-drafted. The Sam Bowie’s and the
Michael Jordan’s. We are going to take a
journey to see which pick fits into that category.
1) Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs, UNDER-DRAFTED: The Spurs selected arguably the most hyped prospect since LeBron James in 2003.
That would be 19-year-old center, 7’5” Victor Wembanyama. In Euro League he averaged
21.5 PTS and 10.1 REBS. Now, you are probably saying Adel - he is the #1 Pick in the
draft how could he be under-drafted? Well, he has limitless potential. He would
go #1 in the draft in every draft of the last decade. He has an 8’
wingspan. He can shoot jump hooks and
fadeaways over each shoulder from the low block out to the 3-point line. He can
handle the ball like a guard. He can slide his feet and cover guards on the
perimeter. He runs the floor effortlessly. Still, he has a lot to learn. When to dribble, when not to dribble, when to
give the ball up to a guard, and other offensive nuances. He needs to work on having consistent effort.
He can disappear at times. He also does bonehead things like attempt to kick
the ball instead of sliding his feet.
2) Brandon Miller, Charlotte Hornets, OVER-DRAFTED:
The Hornets selected Brandon Miller from Alabama 6’9” SF/PF who is an excellent prospect
at 20 years old that averaged 18.8 PTS, 8.2 REB, and 38.4% from the 3-point line.
The player himself isn’t the reason this
is considered an over-drafted pick. He is an excellent all-around player. He will contribute immediately but Scoot
Henderson was available, and he may also be a generational talent. Miller
catches bigger players off guard with his quickness. He isn’t a super athlete
and plays smaller in the paint. His all-around skillset makes this less of an
issue. He can hit the 3-ball consistently, He can handle, and rebounds well.
3) Scoot Henderson, Portland Trail Blazers, UNDER-DRAFTED:
The Trailblazers drafted 6’2” 19-year-old guard from the G-league Scoot Henderson.
Scoot averaged 16.5 pts, 5.3 REB, and 6.8 asts. Scoot is explosive in the style
of Russell Westbrook. That alone is what makes him a generational type of
talent. He is an excellent passer. He needs to focus on that in my opinion. He
has an excellent middy J that will serve him well to keep defenders off
balance. He has all the tools to be a menace on the defensive end if he commits
to it. He is blazing fast in the open court, but he really needs to tighten up
his handle and decision making. He averaged 3 turnovers per game. He really struggled to hit the 3-ball but his
mechanics are improving. He shot a poultry 27.5% from deep.
The Exciting Thompson brothers. Photo Credit: SB Nation
4) Amen Thompson, Houston Rockets, OVER-DRAFTED:
The Rockets drafted Amen Thompson 6’7”PG/SG/SF from the Overtime Elite squad in
the G-League. He is an ultra-explosive athlete that runs like a gazelle. He averaged 16.4 pts, 5.3 rebs. 5.9 ast per
game. He shot an eye-popping 56.6% from the field. He can do almost everything
on the court. He can guard multiple positions, finish well on the break and the
half court. He can initiate offense and finish in the lane. He turns the ball
over quite a bit 3.2 per game. He really
struggles shooting the 3-ball at only 25%.
You may be asking yourself how then he would be over-drafted? Well, I am
glad you asked. It is because I am one of the few who like his brother’s game
more. Yes, he has a twin.
5) Ausar Thompson, Detroit Pistons, UNDER-DRAFTED:
The Pistons drafted Ausar Thompson the twin brother of Amen. Their stats are virtually identical except
Ausar is the better 3 Pt shooter. He connected from deep at 30%. There is still room to grow in that area for him,
but he really changed his mechanics toward the second half of their season and
really started to shine. Amen is the more outwardly flashy of the brothers.
Ausar is the more of the quiet poise, confident, leader of the 2 in my opinion.
Those intangibles are the reason why I believe he was under-drafted.
6) Anthony Black, Orlando Magic, OVER-DRAFTED:
The Magic selected Anthony Black 6’7”PG/SG from Arkansas. He may be the most over-drafted player in the
entire draft to me. He has decent stats at 12.8 pts, 5.1 rebs, 3.9 asts per game.
Anthony Black has an excellent feel for the game that allows him in college to
better utilize his size. He is an
excellent passer. He can shoot the 3-ball
but he is stiff and doesn't get much lift when shooting. I haven't seen much in the way of creating
space for his own J. This is going to
make the transition to the NBA as a scorer difficult. If he focuses on his
passing and just being a role player on offense, he can find a role quickly. He
never drives or finishes going left. Most of his college actions are PnR for
him going right or curling into the lane going right. His defense leaves a lot to be desired. His
stance is very upright and stiff. I
don't see him being a positive defensive contributor early. Black over-penetrates a lot then picks up his dribble. Leaves his feet to make passes a
lot and gets caught in the air with nowhere to go.
7) Bilal Coulibaly, Washington Wizards, UNDER-DRAFTED:
Wizards selected 6’8” SG/SF out of the Euro League, Bilal Coulibaly. This was my steal of the draft for over a
couple of months now. He was drafted higher than most experts thought he would
be. What makes him under-drafted his Anthony Black being picked above him. This
kid has the most upside outside of Wemby in this draft. He was 5’11 a year ago
today. He is only 18 years old and now stands at 6’8 200+ pounds. He is an uber-explosive athlete with one of the highest vertical leaps in the entire class. He
has the athleticism and body control to finish at the rim even with contact. He
has a nice 3-point shot when he gets his feet set. He has lots of room on his
frame to develop. He is an excellent
defender and stronger than he looks. This kid could be the next big thing in
the NBA. During the Euro League playoffs - which had NBA talent and experience in
it - he still shined. He would carry Metropolitan 92 at times when Wemby was
having an off game. He impacts the game on both ends of the floor. He can guard
1-3 and help on 4’s when teams go small. He can navigate around screens like a
much smaller player. He has an excellent left to right crossover. He can finish
with both hands at the rim and is outstanding on the break. He’s got a great
basketball IQ for moving and cutting. He never complains and will guard anyone.
8) Jarace Walker, Indiana Pacers, OVER-DRAFTED:
Pacers get 6’8” PF Jarace Walker from Houston. He is over-drafted because he is
undersized and doesn’t really slide his feet well enough to provide position
flexibility. He blocks a lot of shots from behind but usually due to great
timing not leaping ability. I can see
him being a foul merchant in the NBA early on. He will need to play better
positional defense in my opinion. He is also limited offensively. He does
provide some outside shooting at 34.7% from the 3point line. I would have
preferred Dereck Lively if I was going the defensive route or Taylor Hendricks for a similar
type of player.
9) Taylor Hendricks, Utah Jazz, UNDER-DRAFTED:
Utah Jazz selected the 6’9” PF out of UCF Taylor Hendricks. He is a better
prospect than Walker in my opinion. He is more explosive and a better scorer
than Walker. He shot 39.4% from the 3-point line and is also better from the
free throw line. Hendricks will be a big lob threat in the NBA. He will
really provide some utility offensively and defensively.
10) Cason Wallace, Oklahoma City Thunder, UNDER-DRAFTED: Thunder selected one of the most pro ready
PG/SG in the draft by taking Cason Wallace 6’4” from Kentucky. The fact that
Anthony Black was selected over him is what makes him Under-Drafted. Cason
Wallace could be the best PG in this draft.
He has a pure natural stroke.
Shoots a high percentage from 3 range at 34.6%. He will finish at the cup with 2 hands. He can dribble with both his left and right
hands. In college there is no real
offensive freedom to really see his bag, so it is to be determined on being
able to get by his guy off the bounce.
He comes off a lot of screens or being the weak-side shooter on Pick-and-Roll actions. He buries a lot of 3's. He
has excellent defensive instincts and want too.
He is an absolute thief. He
doesn't turn the ball over often. He can
finish in the lane with floaters, excellent float game. Excellent body control in the air. He can left
or right hand finish. He needs to finish
with his left more to avoid getting his shot blocked at the next level. He rebounds well, passes well, and is very
strong for his age. My only concern was
his game against Alabama. He had an off day for sure, but could that be due to
their length and athleticism be part of the reason for that? In the NCAA tournament he had a fire lit
under him due to the stakes. He was an
absolute dawg defensively.
11) Jett Howard, Orlando Magic, OVER-DRAFTED:
Magic took Jett Howard the 6'8” SF from Michigan. The son of former NBA player
Juan Howard. Jett is dripping in finesse. He lacks physicality both offensively and defensively. Takes a lot of
bad shots. Quick release but drops his follow through causing a lot of
inconsistent shots. He needs to follow through higher and hold it there. He needs to put on weight, he will crash the
offensive glass. Makes some poor passes
and can be careless with the ball. Doesn't finish well in traffic but does have
a floater not a great touch on it though. He only shot 41% from the field but buried
36.8% of his 3’s. He has a lot of work
to do.
12) Dereck Lively, Dallas Mavericks, UNDER-DRAFTED:
Mavericks selected the 7’1 center out of Duke. He will be a great addition to
the defensively-starved fighting Luka’s.
He will get plenty of opportunity to play right away as lob threat shooting
65.8% from the field in college and shot blocking presence down low. He won’t stretch the floor much as he only
shot 15.8% from 3 at Duke.
Gradey Dick, The Drip King. Photo Credit: CNN
13) Gradey Dick, Toronto Raptors, UNDER-DRAFTED:
The Raptors got their sharpshooter in Gradey Dick. The versatile SF from Kansas,
shot 44.2% FG, 40.3% 3PT, and 85.4% FT. He is only under-drafted because Jett
Howard was selected above him. Grady can ball. He has nice quickness and uses
the ball fake to get in the lane. He moves well without the ball and makes
timely back cuts for easy baskets. He has a very nice jump shot but can shoot
it flat at times. He needs to get more arc on the ball. He has nice quick
release. He needs to get stronger and is a defensive liability. He has a nice handle for his size to get to
that middy pull-up j. In the right system he will thrive. He will rely heavily
on a system to produce his offense. One surprising thing about his game. He is
an excellent out of area rebounder and just has a nose for the ball. A lot that doesn’t show up in the rebound column.
Tips, deflections, and boxouts. He
isn’t an explosive athlete but a fluid mover.
14) Jordan Hawkins, New Orleans Pelicans, UNDER-DRAFTED:
The Pelicans also got a sharpshooter in the 6’5 SG out of UConn, Jordan
Hawkins. He shot 37.6% from 3 and 87.2%
from the foul line Hawkins is an older player that knows he just needs to get a
defender moving one step left or right to get his shot off. He has a lightning-quick release. However, he isn't very
explosive and doesn't have much in his bag off the bounce. He does utilize the bounce to get his J off
against pretty much anyone. He is a willing rebounder and a good team player. He
will need to land in the right system to be effective. He will need to add
weight to be able to finish in the lane at the next level. His defense really
needs to improve. He is under-drafted because you guessed it: Jett Howard.
15) Kobe Bufkin, Atlanta Hawks, OVER-DRAFTED:
The Atlanta Hawks are taking a chance on the 19-yr-old SG from Michigan in Kobe Bufkin. He shot 46% from the field and
32.5% from the 3-point line. He is a solid free throw shooter at 83.3%. Bufkin has a very awkward J. He drifts a lot
on his shot causing him to shoot low percentages especially from deep. When he
gets on balance and gets his feet set though he has a good enough stroke. Elbow
is way out though. They ran him off a
lot of screens and curls into the lane going left so he could be
successful. He struggles off the bounce. His handle isn't great. He doesn't have a lot
of tools in his bag. He rebounds well
for the SG spot. Can that translate at the next level?
16) Keyonte George, Utah Jazz, OVER-DRAFTED:
The Utah Jazz selected Keyonte George 6'4” SG out of Baylor to give them some
scoring punch, but I believe Jalen Hood-Schifino or Jamie Jaquez would have
been better options. He shot 37.6% FG and 33.8% from 3. George can be an
explosive offensive player but takes a lot of bad shots. He loves getting to
his right hand off a crossover even from deep and pulling up. His shooting
percentages show his poor shot selection. He doesn't have a great feel for the
game and throws some ill-advised passes using poor angles as well. He can be
turnover prone because of his decision making. He flops offensively quite a bit
which can lead to easy transition buckets going to the other way. He rebounds
well defensively and can finish in the lane.
He is a good 3-point shooter when he gets his feet set.
17) Jalen Hood-Schifino, Los Angeles Lakers, UNDER-DRAFTED:
The Lakers received an immediate contributor in 6’6” PG/SG from Indiana, Jalen
Hood-Schifino. Jalen is an excellent shooter and passer. He has a nice hesi
change-of-pace dribble to get into the lane. He can finish with both hands but is not an elite athlete. He does an excellent job of shooting the ball coming of
screens with the ball in his hands. He could make the extra pass to his open
shooters more which he will need to do at the next level. He is excellent at
getting a defender on his hip and keeping him there when in the lane in order
to get his floater off with either hand. He has excellent footwork and utilizes
the dribble well to come off screens or create his own shot. Doesn't rebound
out of his area or box out well. He can
give you a little bit of everything from shooting to playmaking, to ball
pressure.
18) Jaime Jaquez Jr., Miami Heat, UNDER-DRAFTED:
The Heat took the Swiss army knife out of UCLA Jaime Jaquez Jr. The 6’7” SF/PF shot
47.5% from the field and 32.8% from deep. Jaime Jaquez Jr. has excellent
mobility for his size. He can switch off and guard multiple positions, 1-4. He isn't an explosive athlete on
tape but an excellent positional defender and slides his feet extremely well.
He runs the floor relentlessly. He has tremendous footwork on the low block and
mid post. He has great balance and follow through on his 3-point shot. He can
turn around and fade over either shoulder. He has a nice right hand jump hook
in the low block. He does an excellent job of using his 225-pound frame to
create angles to accept post passes. He is an excellent screener as well. He
passes the ball well out of the double team. His lack of explosiveness shows up
on the low block when defenders stay down on his pump fakes. The explosiveness
is confusing because he had one of the highest verticals at the combine 39”,
wow. He is older at 22 so he will be expected to contribute immediately.
19) Brandin Podziemski, Golden State Warriors, UNDER-DRAFTED:
The Warriors, in a stunning move, added more shooting. This is completely
expected of course because the offense relies on ball movement and spacing. Brandon
Podziemski 6’5 SG out of Santa Clara can fill it up from deep. He shot 48% from
the field, 42.4% from the 3-point line and 77% from the foul line. Pod is an
older player at 20 and it shows with his basketball IQ and footwork. He is
excellent at getting position in the mid post and low post against other guards,
but his lack of athleticism makes it difficult for him to score down low. He has a floater in his bag, but it isn't
great or going to be effective at the next level because he shoots it from his
hip and the length and athleticism will be a problem. His best attribute is his
passing and shooting. He is a minus athlete
which is a real problem if you don't also have an offhand. He has no low post moves,
just proper technique to get position. He can shoot a turnaround J over either
shoulder from the post or mid post.
20) Cam Whitmore, Houston Rockets, UNDER-DRAFTED:
Rockets selected the 6’6 SF out of Villanova, Cam Whitmore. He shot 47% from
the field, 34.3% from deep and is explosive in the open floor. Whitmore is not a plus athlete and has
trouble finishing over length, he is most effective when he can draw contact
with his wide frame and get to the free throw line. His jumper is very
mechanical like a catapult. He needs to
quicken his motion, follow through higher and get more legs into his shot. He
has a good handle and rebounds out of his area.
He needs to work at his footspeed defensively. Rumor has it that he is
not a great practice player and performed poorly in his workouts. There were
some medical concerns as well. He is young so he could change his attitude
towards practice and if he does. He could reach that top-10 potential.
21) Noah Clowney, Brooklyn Nets, OVER-DRAFTED:
The Nets selected a project PF out of Alabama in Noah Clowney. He shot 48.6%
from the field and 28.3% from deep. Clowney is a good PNR lob threat in the
style of Stromile Swift. He is an
explosive 2-footed jumper in the paint.
He uses his long arms to finish inside and through some contact. He will
need to put on muscle to do that at the next level. He can shoot a little hook
over his left shoulder, but his low post game isn't developed. He will give you
nothing on the perimeter. He will hit the occasional 3-ball. He shot 28.3% for
his career. He has nice form in general, but a few technical issues hold him
back. The ball comes off his whole hand
and not his fingertips. He is a stiff
hipped athlete which will make switching onto guards impossible. He will be a
drop coverage defender. Murray or Prosper would have been better picks.
22) Dariq Whitehead, Brooklyn Nets, OVER-DRAFTED:
The Nets also selected Duke’s SG/SF Dariq Whitehead. This is a head-scratcher
to me because although he is a knockdown shooter at 42.9% from deep. He is a
very limited prospect. Whitehead is not a PG or SG at the next level. He would need to size up and play SF or
PF. He doesn't have the handle or
offensive ability to be the focus of the offense. I could see him falling in
this draft. He has size and a nice outside stroke but that is it. His foot
speed leaves a lot to be desired as well. 3-and-D player only is his ceiling.
Can he stay healthy and improve that foot speed? I am skeptical. I would have
taken Ben Sheppard over him.
23) Kris Murray, Portland Trail Blazers, UNDER-DRAFTED: The Trailblazers added more scoring punch at the PF position taking Kris Murray
out of Iowa. He shot 47.3% from the field and 34.8% from deep. He is 22 years old and ready to contribute
offensively right away. If you want a comp: His brother is Keegan Murray. Hard
to tell them apart to look at them. While he looks like Keegan, he doesn’t have
the lateral agility or handle of his brother. He is a spot-up shooter, pick-and-pop player that will give you post buckets if you can get a small guy switched
on to him. He has a soft jump hook in the post.
24) Olivier-Maxence Prosper, Dallas Mavericks, UNDER-DRAFTED:
The Mavericks got a great value in the 20-year-old 6’8” PF out of Marquette in
Oliver-Maxence Prosper. Prosper is a
foul magnet. He will draw fouls on the opposing team's rim defense. He goes all
gas and no breaks in the paint. He is an explosive 2-foot jumper that can
finish on the break. He can finish around the cup with both hands. He doesn't
have a real jump hook or low post game with all raw power and explosiveness. He
is a high energy guy that any team would love. He has better mechanics on his
jumper than his percentage would suggest.
He will be able to guard multiple positions at the next level. This would be a perfect pick for the Nets
instead of Clowney.
25) Marcus Sasser, Memphis Grizzlies, OVER-DRAFTED:
The Grizzlies get some help at point guard in the absence of Ja Morant. They
grabbed the sharpshooting 22-year-old guard from Houston in Marcus Sasser. He
shot 36.9% from deep during his career. Sasser is a pure scoring PG. He is an
excellent spot-up shooter who can create his own shot off the bounce. He isn't
super explosive but is competitive at the point of attack on defense. I would have preferred Ben Sheppard here. He
gives you the shooting but better passing and creation ability. Ben is the
better defender as well.
26) Ben Sheppard, Indiana Pacers, UNDER-DRAFTED:
The Pacers got a steal in the 6’6” point guard out of Belmont in Ben Sheppard. Sheppard
is a player that has all the tools you would need to play in the NBA, except
athleticism. His mind is what makes him a viable prospect. He has excellent
instincts and basketball IQ. He will be able to run an NBA offense and get the
right players organized and into the right spots. He will be able to distribute
the ball and knock down shots from the outside. He always plays at his pace to
get to the spots on the floor he wants. He can finish with either hand at the
rim. He also plays the glass well from the mid-range. He is a very competitive
defender at point of attack.
27) Nick Smith Jr., Charlotte Hornets, UNDER-DRAFTED:
The Hornets got a high upside SG/SF in Nick Smith Jr the 6’6” Arkansas
star. He has a little bit of an injury
history that dampened his athletic ability last season. Nick is not an
explosive athlete but has some burst when he wants too. He has a nice hesi game
and changes pace very well. He has a nice stroke from deep and off the bounce.
He tends to drift at times which he will need to clean that up to shoot
consistently at the next level. He can make some nice passes but doesn't create
offense, often due to Anthony Black being on the team. I think there is more
meat on the bone for him here. He needs to rebound better as well for that
wingspan his rebounding numbers are below the line. He has traits to be a good defender, but does
he have the mentality to want to lock people up? The good thing is he doesn't
turn the ball over much. He will be able
to create his own shot at the next level which is a big tool to have in his
bag.
28) Brice Sensabaugh, Utah Jazz, UNDER-DRAFTED:
The Jazz nabbed a potential top-15 pick at number 28: Brice Sensabaugh the 19-year-old 6’6” 235 SG/SF out of Ohio State. He has every tool in the bag offensively. The
question will be is he willing to work? He shot 48.2% from the field and 40.5% from deep.
As a bonus he shoots 83% from the foul line. If you were going to take a flyer
on Dariq Whitehead (Nets), then I would have taken this guy instead. He needs to get into NBA
shape. He has very slow feet but knows how to use his size and weight against
smaller players. He has a nice jump shot but takes some poor shots at times as
well. He needs to follow through higher
and get more legs into his jumper. This is due to his conditioning I would
imagine that he doesn't get much lift. He has a nice handle for his size but
lacks the foot speed to capitalize down the lane. He has a quick right to left crossover into a
jumper from all over the court. He uses the triple threat well.
29) Julian Strawther, Denver Nuggets, UNDER-DRAFTED:
The Nuggets added a pure scorer to their already potent group. The 6’7” G out
of Gonzaga can really fill it up from all 3 levels. He shot 48.4% from the field
and 38.4% from deep. Julian is instant offense. He can score in catch-and-shoot
situations. He comes off screens very well to shoot or curl in the lane for the
excellent floater he has. The floater makes up for his lack of explosiveness.
He can finish with either hand around the rim but lacks the explosiveness that
may cause him problems in the NBA at the cup. He doesn't really create any
offense for others and is a defensive liability. He can get some separation off
the bounce to get into a jumper, but his dribble package is limited. This is
another pick I would rather have than Whitehead.
30) Kobe Brown, Los Angeles Clippers, UNDER-DRAFTED:
The Clippers have a high-upside project in 6’7” brickhouse Kobe Brown. He is 240
pounds of muscle. He is bulky enough to guard the PF/C spot. He is an explosive
athlete at the rim. He will work well in PNR situations as a lob threat. He
shot 49.2% from the field and 31.3% from deep at Missouri. However, in his last
year he shot the 3-ball at a rate of 45.5% averaging 3.3 attempts per game! He
can’t really create offense on his own. He will be an excellent screen and
roll/Pick and Pop guy. He is physical, rebounds well but does foul quite a bit.
He averages 2.6 fouls per game.
A Adel Burton is the Senior NBA Draft Analyst at John Frascella Sports. Follow him on Twitter @DigitalAdel for in-depth basketball analysis throughout the year. Don't forget to check him out on YouTube at Hoops Profile, as well.
