Thursday, November 8, 2018

John Frascella's Top 50 MLB Free Agents: Rankings and Landing Spots for Harper, Machado and More...

Bryce Harper. Manny Machado. Two of baseball's biggest stars are relaxing with their feet up right now, waiting for their nine-figure paydays. Must be nice.

But after the megastars we all know about, who are the best MLB free agents out there, and where will they land? No time to waste. Let's get right into it...

PART I: HONORABLE MENTION


**EDITOR'S NOTE: Transactions are happening quickly, so the list of available free agents is subject to rapid change. **

Ervin Santana, SP, Projected landing spot: Padres

Santana had finger issues and a 8.03 ERA in five starts last season, but he's a one-year deal, buy-low kind of guy. The Padres did this recently with Tyson Ross. They may try it again, here. 

Drew Pomeranz, SP, Projection: Rangers

Pomeranz was solid a couple seasons ago, but this lumbering lefty always gets hurt. He simply cannot be trusted. The Rangers like taking shots on vets like this. 

James Shields, SP, Projection: Reds

LOL, I can't believe I'm writing a blurb for "Big-Game" James. But ya know what? The guy gives you innings. They may not be good innings, but he tossed 204 last season. He's mostly durable, and can fill out the back end of a rotation on a bad team.

Denard Span, OF, Projection: Blue Jays

He's been a real solid professional ballplayer for a long time now, but age is finally beginning to catch up with him. A good fifth outfielder, though. For the Jays he'd be more like fourth.

PART II: MLB TOP 50 FREE AGENTS

50. Anibal Sanchez, SP, Projection: Phillies

Similarly to Shields, I can't believe Anibal made it on to this list. From 2015 to 2017, this old righty's ERA jumped from 4.99 to 5.87 to 6.41. Then, magically, last season it dropped all the way down to 2.83 with the Braves. His FIP wasn't that far off, either. Phillies make sense because they saw him up close and personal with the division-rival Braves. 

49. Josh Harrison, Utility, Projection: Diamondbacks

His offensive numbers have been dipping, but his versatility is valuable, as well as his day-to-day energy. Good guy for the clubhouse. The D'Backs will need a utility man if Daniel Descalso goes elsewhere. 

48. Lance Lynn, SP, Projection: Rangers

Lynn struck out 61 in 54 innings with the Yankees, and his fastball was still there. It isn't always pretty when he's up on the bump, but he's a bulldog. He'll always compete. He reminds me of a poor man's John Lackey

47. Yasmani Grandal, C, Projection: Diamondbacks

I'm sorry, I'm just not a Yasmani Grandal guy. He's developed a big name because of his exposure with the Dodgers, but he kills rallies and is extremely sloppy behind the dish. Not gonna be worth the money he gets. (Just read that the Mets are interested in him. Makes sense. We're stupid.)

46. Evan Gattis, Utility, Projection: Pirates

He's not really a catcher. Not really a first baseman, either. I've even seen him in the outfield on rare occasions, too. With Gattis, you don't care about his glove. You just wait for the bombs. The Pirates could desperately use some of those. 

45. Joakim Soria, RP, Projection: Astros

Like Grandal, I'm not really a Soria guy. Injuries have caused a stop-and-go flow for his career, and I don't trust his velocity at this point. He was an elite reliever back in his Royals days, but now he's more of a middle-of-the-pack righty. 

44. Brad Brach, RP, Projection: Braves

With all of Zach Britton's injuries over the years, Brach's had a number of opportunities to close with the Orioles. He has a solid amount of high-leverage experience. After coming over to the NL with the Braves, he tossed the ball very well. Mid-to-upper 90s with his heat when he's on. Makes sense for the Braves to hang on to him. 

43. Clay Buchholz, SP, Projection: Royals

Essentially the same storyline as Anibal Sanchez, but I've always liked Buchholz's stuff a bit better. Pitched extremely well for the D'Backs down the stretch. That will be awfully hard for him to maintain in '19. Injury risk, of course. 

42. Daniel Descalso, Utility, Projection: A's

One of the most valuable utilitymen and bench players in all of baseball. Clutch hitter with a superb eye, with the flexibility to play anywhere in the infield. Billy Beane may need a guy like this if Jed Lowrie skips town. 

41. Joe Mauer, 1B, Projection: Indians

Lot of moving parts to this one: (1) Mauer is considering retirement, (2) to continue playing, I'd assume he'd have to get interest from a contender and (3) the Indians might be cleaning house. Hard to even say how good they will be. But, the Indians have been consistently winning the AL Central, and they are very familiar with Mauer's work with the Twins. 

40. Andrew McCutchen, OF, Projection: Tigers

He looked so small and weak with the Yankees. Maybe he had a different "weight training" program in the past, with the Pirates. I think he's mostly finished at this stage of his excellent career, but at least he walks. He'll find ways to get on base, but I think the homers and deep doubles are gone. 

39. Lonnie Chisenhall, Utility, Projection: Twins

This guy is a professional hitter, but he can't stay on the field. He's really a low-risk signing though, and I would actually love for my Mets to get him on the cheap. However, I think he lands as an extra bat for the Twins, as Mauer retires or changes teams. 

38. Jeurys Familia, RP, Projection: Cardinals

Not exactly sure if he'll be signed as a closer. He still has the live arm and heavy sinker, but his mental makeup is always in question. Should still be effective as a setup man in the NL, though. 

37. Jeremy Hellickson, SP, Projection: Mets

Bounced back beautifully with the Nats last season, and the Mets know him well between Washington and Philadelphia. New Mets GM Brodie Van Wagenen should be looking to push overpaid Jason Vargas out of his rotation, and Hellickson would be an affordable fit.

36. Gerardo Parra, OF, Projection: Rays

Mallex Smith just got traded, so this becomes a reasonable fit. Parra is a very solid lefty bat, most effective as a platoon specialist against right-handed pitching. Overall, he's a good ballplayer. The Rays front office recognizes good ballplayers.

35. Carlos Gonzalez, OF, Projection: Orioles

This vet's better days are probably behind him, but the Orioles will need an outfield replacement for Adam Jones. "Cargo" is used to friendly home parks, and Camden is generous like Coors Field.

34. Ian Kinsler, 2B, Projection: Nationals

He's one of the oldest guys in the game, but Kinsler snatched a Gold Glove this season, anyway. He's still got it in the field. The pop is mostly gone from his bat, but he'll give you professional at bats and some line-drive base hits.

33. Steven Pearce, 1B, Projection: Angels

Steve Pearce is the reigning World Series MVP. That just sounds weird, doesn't it? This is when dumb teams overreact to the short-term. Pearce is a very good specialist against left-handed pitching, but I could see the Angels signing him for big bucks as a full-time player. Like I said...dumb teams.

32. Asdrubal Cabrera, Infielder, Projection: Cubs

Coming off a couple solid years. Switch-hitting veteran who can play 2B, SS and 3B, as needed. Can replace Daniel Murphy with the Cubs. "Drubs" is a clutch player who can handle the media and fan scrutiny in Chicago.

31. Garrett Richards, SP, Projection: Mariners

Recovering from Tommy John surgery, but maybe you give him a two or three-year deal with incentives. When healthy, Richards features an explosive fastball and sharp breaking ball. He may never be himself again...or he may end up as a steal on this flooded market.

30. Adrian Beltre, 3B, Projection: Rangers

Thirty-nine years old and battling hip and hamstring injuries, it's clear the end is near for one of the greatest third basemen in the history of the MLB. Beltre can still rake when healthy, though. I think he either retires or rejoins the Rangers.

29. Cody Allen, RP, Projection: White Sox

Finally came back down to earth this past season. Allen has been walking a tightrope for a few years, getting himself into jams with wildness and the inability to put away pesky hitters with his fastball. He has a devastating breaking ball, but he needs to get more outs with his heat. He would close for the ChiSox.

28. Zach Britton, RP, Projection: Rockies

Britton falls into that category with Grandal and Soria -- I'm just not a huge fan. Still riding the coattails of one of the greatest relief seasons of all time (0.54 ERA with 47 saves in 2016), people seem to forget that this guy gets injured every other month. We all love his power, left-handed sinker which induces a ridiculous groundball rate, but I'd personally like to see him out on the mound more often. If Adam Ottavino cashes in elsewhere, Britton makes perfect sense for the Rockies, especially with his sinker at Coors.

27. J.A. Happ, SP, Projection: Twins

A reliable lefty with a calm demeanor. You know what you're going to get from Happ. A safe investment as a mid-rotation starter.

26. Charlie Morton, SP, Projection: Rockies

The Rocks might as well pair the sinkerballers. Obviously heavy sinkers are ideal for Coors Field. Morton in the rotation and Britton in the bullpen would make total sense for Colorado.

25. Adam Ottavino, RP, Projection: Mets

The Mets already have reported interest, and I don't really want Ottavino, so that means we will get him. His nerves were SHAKY in the postseason. He was god awful. I don't want weak-minded guys at the back of my bullpen. His numbers were shiny this past season, though.

24. Kelvin Herrera, RP, Projection: Dodgers

The recent ligament surgery is concerning, but I have more faith in Herrera's resolve than Ottavino's. We know, when he's right, Herrera can touch 98-99. Could be an effective setup man for a contender, if he can land comfortably on his left foot.

23. Adam Jones, OF, Projection: Tigers

Had a consistent run of productivity, before dropping down to just 15 dingers last season. That isn't very good at Camden. But overall he's been a good teammate and solid all-around ballplayer. The young Tigers could use the leadership and, well, any base hits.

22. Hyun-Jin Ryu, SP, Projection: Dodgers

Another injury-prone guy, but he's a lefty with very good stuff. Dodgers extended a qualifying offer of $17.9 million. Ryu probably finds his way back to L.A.

21. Nathan Eovaldi, SP, Projection: Brewers

Everyone's goin' crazy over Eovaldi because he throws hard. He's always thrown hard -- but is he really that good? (4.16 lifetime ERA, only 640 Ks in 850 innings.) Regardless, he'll probably get front-line money because of the recent hype. Craig Counsell's Brewers have leaned so heavily on their bullpen that they could use a starter like Eovaldi, overpaid or not.

20. Wilson Ramos, C, Projection: Angels

One of the best offensive catchers in the game, Ramos could assist Mike Trout in run production. The latter needs all the help he can get. Angels have already been tied to Ramos.

19. Gio Gonzalez, SP, Projection: Phillies

Why is everybody so down on this guy, all of a sudden? Because he had a high-ankle sprain in the playoffs? Because of a (sort of) down year? (4.21 ERA with 148 Ks.) This experienced left-hander has thrown 170-plus innings four consecutive seasons. Over 200 innings three times. 3.69 career ERA with good movement on his fastball and a signature, buckling curve. He should continue being a quality starting pitcher in the NL.

18. Brian Dozier, 2B, Projection: Astros

The problem here is market value. Dozier has arguably been the best power-hitting second baseman of his generation, but he's coming off an atrocious season at the absolute worst time. Still, he's a big name on this market, and someone will definitely overpay for his services. I just feel like the "naked power hitter" thing is over with. Homers with no one on base can be found. How about base hits with runners in scoring position?

17. Michael Brantley, OF, Projection: A's

In terms of pure ability, Brantley is probably a top-15 player on this list. However, like Britton, Ryu and Chisenhall before him, his alarming history of injuries makes him a risky proposition. If he can stay healthy, he's a steal at almost any pricepoint. If it ends up being the A's, they'll probably get him below market.

16. Marwin Gonzalez, Utility, Projection: Braves

Marwin was on fire throughout the 2017 MLB campaign, but '18 was a different story. He was ice cold for the entire first half of the year. He settled in for some solid stretches in the second half, but it was an underwhelming season on the whole. That doesn't really hurt his perceived value, though, because he is best known for his position versatility. Jon Heyman says Gonzalez has received interest from "everyone but one team." This dude's about to get paid.

15. Mike Moustakas, 3B, Projection: Padres

Makes sense for him to join his buddy, Eric Hosmer, in sunny San Diego. "The Moose" is perennially underrated, maybe because he doesn't exactly look like a world-class athlete. Who cares? He hits in the clutch and is experienced under pressure. He mashes homers and drives in runs. The Pads should welcome him with open arms. I know Hosmer would.

14. Josh Donaldson, 3B, Projection: Orioles

Definitely scared teams away with a clunker of a season. Looked like an old, broken-down has-been. This makes Donaldson more of a buy candidate for weaker teams looking to take shots on bounce-back players. We've seen guys like Chris Davis and Mark Trumbo fool people with Camden stats before. This would be a good place for Donaldson to "rehabilitate his image." Yeah, that's a Social Network reference.

13. D.J. LeMahieu, 2B, Projection: Dodgers

The NL Gold Glove winner is also a former batting champion (.348 in 2016). He's 30 years old with good athleticism, gap-to-gap ability and one of the best gloves in the game. A major-market team is gonna have to fork over the big money for LeMahieu.

12. Nick Markakis, OF, Projection: Indians

This savvy veteran knows exactly what to do in a contract year: make the all-star team and win a Gold Glove. Markakis is simply as steady as they come. If you look up "professional ballplayer" in the dictionary, you will see a picture of him, expressionless, just doing his job. That's what he does. You can count on him offensively and defensively. Provides professional at bats, perfect throws from the outfield and leadership by example. He would literally improve any team in the MLB.

11. Andrew Miller, RP, Projection: Cardinals

Like I wrote about Brantley earlier -- Miller's actual ranking, in terms of skill and ability, is probably higher than this. But, when investing on the open market, we must consider risk. When I see "shoulder impingement" in reference to a veteran pitcher, I start running in the other direction. Miller has been severely overworked in the past 4-5 seasons, too. He's probably the best left-handed reliever in baseball, but...buyer beware.

PART III: THE BEST OF THE BEST. TOP 10!

10. Jed Lowrie, Infielder, Projection: Rays

From one small-market team to another. Like Markakis, Lowrie delivered in his contract year to the tune of 23 homers and 99 RBI -- both career highs. The homers were definitely surprising, but the RBI were, in part, a function of the MLB's realization that contact hitters belong in the meat of the order. Why have all-or-nothing home run hitters in the middle, where they can strand runners and frustrate the coaches and fans? Lowrie gets hits with runners on. He can play 3B, SS and 2B as needed. That's value. 

9. Daniel Murphy, Infielder, Projection: Rockies

Would slide in nicely in LeMahieu's place. Murph has hit .286 or better in EIGHT straight seasons. Textbook definition of a professional hitter. He's fantastic with RISP. 

8. A.J. Pollock, OF, Projection: Mariners

A few years ago he was gaining momentum as "one of the best young outfielders in the game," but he's another kid who just can't stay on the field. Maybe he plays too hard. Always getting hurt diving, sliding, etc. But hey, he has a ton of talent as an all-around ballplayer. If the Mariners are thinking about cleaning house like the Indians, Pollock is a great fit for the new blood. 

7. Dallas Keuchel, SP, Projection: Red Sox

Stockpiling lefties, much? Keuchel's a risky investment on this market because he will command too much money. Yes, he's "crafty" and "smart," which is another way of saying "soft-tossing lefty." How much do you wanna invest in a soft-tossing lefty in an era where everyone else throws 100 MPH? With their payroll, the Red Sox don't have to worry about anything like that. They can just add Keuchel to Chris Sale and David Price. Lefty paradise. 

6. David Robertson, RP, Projection: Red Sox

If Markakis is a "professional ballplayer" and Murphy is a "professional hitter," then Robertson is a "professional pitcher." Throws strikes. Ton of experience. Reliable and smooth with a wicked hammer. Wish my Mets would get him, but the Sox are gonna need a replacement for No. 4 on my list.

5. Patrick Corbin, SP, Projection: Yankees

This 29-year old lefty is a two-time all-star with a mixed bag of results. He was a legitimate Cy Young candidate in the first half of the 2013 season, and he followed that up with a Tommy John surgery and long recovery. He came back solid in '15, but struggled throughout '16 and some of '17. This past season, Corbin finally appeared to be back, striking out 246 batters in 200 strong innings. Like Markakis and Lowrie, he delivered in his walk year. Open up your wallet -- wide -- Hal Steinbrenner.

4. Craig Kimbrel, RP, Projection: Phillies

The Phils have the financial flexibility right now, and they are already hot on Kimbrel's tail. He absolutely sucked in the playoffs, but there's no denying the fact that he's been one of the greatest closers of his generation...and probably of all time.

3. Nelson Cruz, OF/DH, Projection: Astros

I think he's been the most underrated player in the MLB for quite some time now. He's easily one of the top three or four power hitters in the world, but he can also hit for average and drive in runs with base hits (as opposed to generating all production from the longball). He's a consistently dominant force in the middle of MLB lineups. The 'Stros don't like the way things went down against the Red Sox. They aren't going quietly in 2019. Cruz is the impact player they need and want.

2. Manny Machado, SS/3B, Projection: Phillies

Wowwww, how 'bout these Phillies? Pickin' up two of the top four free agents on the market? We'll see if that comes to fruition. We're splitting hairs with the man at the No. 1 spot, but Machado scared away some scouts and execs with his bizarre and unprofessional behavior throughout the postseason. Is he the leader you need for the salary he's going to command? Philadelphia isn't worried about that right now. They just want to dramatically improve their talent base, and who can blame them? Philly really could be the landing spot.

1. Bryce Harper, OF, Projection: Cardinals

For a long time, the Cardinals were the class of the NL Central; but then, Theo Epstein rebuilt the Chicago Cubs. Then the Brewers bolstered their already-potent offense with Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain. Josh Hader exploded onto the scene. All of a sudden, the once-invincible Cardinals started feeling like a middle-of-the-pack club in the Central. Now the front office is leaking things like, "We're not really that interested in Bryce Harper. Not as much as people think." Yeah, riiiiiiight. Sure, I believe that. That is classic disinformation through the media. If the Phillies favor Machado, I think Harper ends up in St. Louis. And one more thing...

Brian Cashman and the Yankees could always sneak up on you when you least expect it. 

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