Kevin Durant is a Warrior. I don't even know where to start. I could probably write 10,000 words on that move alone. Instead, to save us all the pain, I'm going to do the exact opposite and oversimplify that stunning development into one little idea:
The Golden State Warriors will be the 2016-17 NBA champions unless one of their Core Four suffers a season-ending injury.
If Durant, Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green are all healthy come playoff time, the Warriors will celebrate their second title in three years. That's the unfortunate reality of the situation.
Nevertheless, there are a number of other interesting storylines from this frenzied NBA offseason. Let's get into my report cards...
Indiana Pacers (B+): Larry Bird's offseason has garnered a significant amount of attention because of the quality additions of Jeff Teague, Thaddeus Young and Al Jefferson. While this organization has undoubtedly upgraded its current talent pool, I do have questions about all three players: (1) Why were the Hawks so eager to ship Teague out of town (character issues)? (2) Will Thad ever find his position (too small for PF, poor shooting SF)? (3) Will "Al Jeff" ever stay healthy enough for season-long impact?
Also, I hate the coaching downgrade from Frank Vogel to Nate McMillan. Just another unfair NBA firing. Nevertheless, the Pacers should be in the 4-6 seed range (can't finish top 3 because the Cavs are in their division).
Derrick Rose is an injury-prone ballhog who has a tendency to rub his teammates the wrong way, but he's also fast, laterally quick, hungry and a former MVP. He's certainly not a prototypical point guard, but he gives the Knicks another primary scorer to go along with Carmelo Anthony and Kristaps Porzingis. Courtney Lee was a no-brainer for his price, and Jeff Hornacek is a major coaching upgrade over both Kurt Rambis and Derek Fisher. Brandon Jennings was also a no-brainer at one year, $5 million. I didn't give the Knicks an "A" because the front office severely overpaid for Joakim Noah. They better hope they catch lightning in a bottle there.
Memphis Grizzlies (D): The only reason I didn't give them an "F" is because it would have been awfully difficult to overhaul this roster. Here's the simple reality: Mike Conley and Chandler Parsons got way, way too much money. Conley is a good kid and nice player, but he's also tiny and has been battered physically in recent years. I think his true prime has already passed. Parsons is injury-prone and overrated even when he makes it onto the court.
The situation in Memphis never seems to change -- they can't win their division with the Spurs around, and they'll never reach the Finals with the Warriors and Spurs in their playoff bracket. This core of Conley, Parsons, Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph will never win a championship, so you have to ask yourself the obvious question: What's the point? Finally, they let Dave Joerger go to Sacramento, despite coaching one of the obvious overachievers of the 2015-16 season. Why not keep a head coach who gets more out of his players than he's supposed to? Absolutely mind-boggling to me.
The situation in Memphis never seems to change -- they can't win their division with the Spurs around, and they'll never reach the Finals with the Warriors and Spurs in their playoff bracket. This core of Conley, Parsons, Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph will never win a championship, so you have to ask yourself the obvious question: What's the point? Finally, they let Dave Joerger go to Sacramento, despite coaching one of the obvious overachievers of the 2015-16 season. Why not keep a head coach who gets more out of his players than he's supposed to? Absolutely mind-boggling to me.
Boston Celtics (C+): I know everyone was making a big deal out of Horford on this free agent market, but he's honestly a glorified role player. He's an awful lot like Conley -- a great teammate who is not going to carry you to the Promised Land. Horford makes the Celtics a little better and rookie Jaylen Brown brings some athletic explosiveness, but this Brad Stevens team cannot compete with LeBron James, Kyrie Irving and the Cavs. The Celtics are in muddy middling waters with the Pacers, Hawks, Hornets, Heat and Wizards. It's an uneventful place to be.
Houston Rockets (B+): I keep going back to this Rockets team in my mind. I have a good feeling about them this season. I was furious with GM Daryl Morey when he unfairly fired Kevin McHale -- like Vogel in Indiana, Joerger in Memphis, Mike Malone in Sacramento, Tom Thibodeau in Chicago, the list goes on -- but he has redeemed himself a bit with the hiring of Mike D'Antoni. Although I'll always hate D'Antoni for the way he treated my boy Stephon Marbury, as a coach, D'Antoni extracts the maximum statistical output from his players. Remember what he did for Landry Fields? He made a D-League caliber player look worthy of a 3-year, $19 million contract from the Raptors (of course he ended up being a total bust).
So D'Antoni takes over in Houston where Ryan Anderson and Eric Gordon are the key additions. I think Anderson will really reap the benefits of playing on the wing as James Harden slashes down the lane, and Gordon should be adequate, though I'm always mindful of his injury-riddled past. Regarding Dwight Howard, we may end up with a case of addition-by-subtraction here. This past postseason you could really see the animosity on the Rockets bench. Howard, as per usual, simply wasn't fitting in from a personality standpoint. In addition, his playing style doesn't quite fit D'Antoni's "Seven Seconds or Less" run-and-gun offense. Michael Beasley will be a player to watch. D'Antoni may fall in love with his offensive skillset.
So D'Antoni takes over in Houston where Ryan Anderson and Eric Gordon are the key additions. I think Anderson will really reap the benefits of playing on the wing as James Harden slashes down the lane, and Gordon should be adequate, though I'm always mindful of his injury-riddled past. Regarding Dwight Howard, we may end up with a case of addition-by-subtraction here. This past postseason you could really see the animosity on the Rockets bench. Howard, as per usual, simply wasn't fitting in from a personality standpoint. In addition, his playing style doesn't quite fit D'Antoni's "Seven Seconds or Less" run-and-gun offense. Michael Beasley will be a player to watch. D'Antoni may fall in love with his offensive skillset.
Chicago Bulls (F): When you make a decision as poor as replacing Tom Thibodeau with pushover Fred Hoiberg, you deserve to be punished. Here we are a little over a year later, and the Bulls are fading away into obscurity. Pau Gasol, Rose and Noah have been supplanted by Rajon Rondo, Robin Lopez, Jose Calderon and Jerian Grant.
This has been a disaster offseason for the Bulls. If I've said this once about Rondo, I've said it a thousand times: THE PREMIER TEAMS IN THE NBA HAVE POINT GUARDS WHO TAKE AND MAKE THREES. Rondo is a relic of the past. Sure he will pile up assists if you let him dribble around all game, but he isn't going to help you become a serious contender. The bottom of the West was ugly last season, and yet Rondo wasn't able to muster up a playoff run with DeMarcus Cousins and Rudy Gay as his talented running mates in Sacramento. You're not going anywhere with Rondo; that's the bottom line.
Robin Lopez and Noah are essentially comparable, but Chicago will not be able to replace the combined scoring of Rose and Gasol. Think about how backwards this organization has become: They fired one of the premier defensive coaches in the world, replaced him with an unproven offensive coach, then unloaded their scorers and built a defense-oriented roster. Does that make any sense at all? And how the hell is this team going to score this season? What a mess. I feel terrible for Bulls fans Mark Rue and Rudy Antido.
** UPDATE: Obviously this section was written before the acquisition of Dwyane Wade. The Bulls are not suddenly title contenders now, but I can upgrade their offseason from an "F" to a "C". As the league becomes more perimeter-oriented, the Bulls are going to start Wade and Rondo in their backcourt. Still seems backwards to me.
Regardless, this team isn't going to contend with the Warriors by inhaling their Thanksgiving leftovers. Bogut has a big name, but all he really does is clog the paint defensively. His overall impact is dramatically overstated. He's far from a game changer. I have the Mavs in the middle-of-the-pack playoff race with the Grizzlies, Thunder, Blazers and Rockets. The Warriors, Spurs and Clippers are the class of the conference, and everyone else is secondary.
Atlanta Hawks (C-): Horford and Teague out, Howard in and Dennis Schroder gets promoted to the starting lineup. Offensively, Howard is not nearly as versatile as Horford, so I'm not sure how Atlanta is going to generate the missing points created by Horford's mid-range shooting, passing and superior pick-and-roll timing. They will ask Kent Bazemore to shoulder a greater offensive load, but that's not exactly advisable. This team is declining. Their days as an Eastern Conference Finals contender appear to be over.
Minnesota Timberwolves (A-): They didn't do much other than hiring Thibodeau and drafting Kris Dunn, and yet they had one of the best offseasons out there. This organization is loaded with electric young talent, and "Thibs" was absolutely the right man for the job. He will maximize the complementary skillsets of Karl-Anthony Towns (already one of the premier players in the world), Andrew Wiggins and Ricky Rubio. Throw in athletic wild cards in Dunn and Zach LaVine, and useful reserves like Nemanja Bjelica and Gorgui Dieng, and you have a dangerous young team on the rise. There is explosive potential here. I expect the Wolves to contend for a back-end playoff position.
I say you hand over the keys to Brandon Ingram immediately. Unlike Julius Randle and D'Angelo Russell who are destined to become overrated role players, Ingram actually has the potential to be a star. I see no need to put another small forward in his way. Hopefully Walton will let Deng eat up some of Randle's minutes as a stretch four. Jordan Clarkson was an important re-signing for them, and I'm still hoping they'll trade Russell and rid themselves of that bust of a pick. Ride Ingram and Clarkson and see how they do.
Oklahoma City Thunder (C): I mean, they lost Kevin Durant, but did they really do anything wrong? I'm giving them a "C" because their win total is clearly going to decline, but at the end of the day Durant simply chose the easier path to a championship ring. As I've said from the beginning, I think Sam Presti saw the writing on the wall -- Victor Oladipo was acquired as an affordable replacement for Durant, not a potential teammate. That's my view and I'm stickin' to it. Ersan Ilyasova and Domantas Sabonis are also useful pieces from the Serge Ibaka trade. Sure OKC fans are going to be devastated for quite a long time, but look at the bright side -- Russell Westbrook, Oladipo, Steven Adams and Enes Kanter is a quality core of the roster. This team can still make a little noise. How about reaching out to the Kings about Rudy Gay? Just a thought.
Orlando Magic (B-): Kind of like the Bulls, overall, I have no friggin' clue what the Magic are doing. Clearly they are trying to improve defensively with the Ibaka and Bismack Biyombo additions, but what the hell is going on with their PG-SG-SF logjam? I suppose Elfrid Payton is viewed as a young cornerstone for this team, but he's another point guard who isn't a good perimeter shooter. On the bright side he's not old like Rondo, so he has plenty of time to continue developing that aspect of his game. Meanwhile they bring in veteran D.J. Augustin, who tends to play very well when a coaching staff displays confidence in him. What if he comes in and outplays Payton, then what?
At shooting guard they were essentially forced to re-sign Evan Fournier (because Oladipo was traded), but don't forget about "Super Mario" Hejonza and Jodie Meeks. All three of those guys can also play a little small forward, but what about Aaron Gordon and the newly-acquired Jeff Green? And if Ibaka and Biyombo are supposedly starting at PF and C, where does that leave Nikola Vucevic, their most accomplished offensive performer? What can they get for Vucevic in a potential deal? So many questions, and I'm not entirely sure about the answers. On the bright side, Vogel is a major coaching upgrade over the volatile Scott Skiles.
At shooting guard they were essentially forced to re-sign Evan Fournier (because Oladipo was traded), but don't forget about "Super Mario" Hejonza and Jodie Meeks. All three of those guys can also play a little small forward, but what about Aaron Gordon and the newly-acquired Jeff Green? And if Ibaka and Biyombo are supposedly starting at PF and C, where does that leave Nikola Vucevic, their most accomplished offensive performer? What can they get for Vucevic in a potential deal? So many questions, and I'm not entirely sure about the answers. On the bright side, Vogel is a major coaching upgrade over the volatile Scott Skiles.
Nevertheless, the 76ers have Simmons now and Embiid may actually play this season. Furthermore, new GM Bryan Colangelo had the crazy idea of adding something called "veterans" to his roster. Ever heard of those? Experienced guys you can actually combine with your young talent to create a cohesive unit. Gerald Henderson, Jerryd Bayless and Sergio Rodriguez should bring some more immediacy to this team. I'd like to see Colangelo explore the trade market for either Brandon Knight or Eric Bledsoe from the Suns. With Embiid, Noel, Okafor, Richaun Holmes and Christian Wood, the Sixers have young bigs to spare. I'm sure there's interest around the league.
Utah Jazz (C+): I'm not entirely sure what adding George Hill and Joe Johnson does for a team that is overstuffed with guards and wings. Like the Magic, this club is creating its own playing time controversies. Those two veteran guards are going into the pot with Dante Exum, Shelvin Mack, Rodney Hood, Alec Burks, Joe Ingles, Trey Lyles and of course their franchise player, Gordon Hayward. I understand the concept of having the vets "bring the younger guys along," but Quinn Snyder is going to have his hands full trying to distribute minutes here. Also, how slow is this team going to be? Imagine the Hill, Johnson, Hayward, Favors, Gobert lineup, which I'm sure we'll see fairly often. "Slow-Mo Joe" can teach these guys how to slow the game down to a halt. Again the Jazz will be scrounging for a back-end playoff spot, and they may come up short again.
Brooklyn Nets (D): Steve Summer and I -- the only two real Brooklyn Nets fans out there -- are depressed by this offseason. New GM Sean Marks and HC Kenny Atkinson are both very well-respected around the league, but that respect isn't landing any big-time players for us. Jeremy Lin replaces Jarrett Jack (I'm sure their numbers will end up similar) and there's a decent chance both Tyler Johnson and Allen Crabbe will be restricted by their current teams. If the Nets don't end up with Johnson or Crabbe -- preferably both -- they will be doomed for this upcoming season. Marks may have a rational plan for this organization, but plans never work out unless you acquire upper-echelon talent. How exactly does he plan to do that?
Offseason Rankings for the Active Teams
1. Golden State Warriors (A+)
2. New York Knicks (A-)
3. Philadelphia 76ers (A-)
4. Minnesota Timberwolves (A-)
5. Indiana Pacers (B+)
6. Houston Rockets (B+)
7. Los Angeles Lakers (B)
8. Dallas Mavericks (B-)
9. Orlando Magic (B-)
10. Boston Celtics (C+)
11. Utah Jazz (C+)
12. Oklahoma City Thunder (C)
13. Chicago Bulls (C - upgraded from an F)
14. Atlanta Hawks (C-)
15. Memphis Grizzlies (D)
16. Brooklyn Nets (D)
Slight downgrade: Charlotte Hornets
Major downgrades: Miami Heat, New Orleans Pelicans
Status quo: Cleveland Cavaliers, Denver Nuggets, Los Angeles Clippers, Milwaukee Bucks, Phoenix Suns, Portland Trail Blazers, San Antonio Spurs, Toronto Raptors, Washington Wizards
Slight upgrades: Detroit Pistons, Sacramento Kings
Let the conversation commence...
