Wednesday, December 18, 2013

Why Injuries Are EVERYTHING In the NBA

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So I bought the NBA League Pass last week (already one of the smartest things I've ever done) and I was watching a Golden State Warriors game with their local broadcasters, when one of their comments just jolted me. 

At various junctures throughout the game, they mentioned the absence of G/F Andre Iguodala (hamstring) and how it was affecting the overall flow of the Warriors. Then Bob Fitzgerald (play-by-play man) said:

"I know Iggy is extremely important to the team, but at some point, other guys have to step up and show some accountability."

Of course that's a very generic and mostly fair statement, but the problem is that "step up and show some accountability" is never going to become "step up and contribute as much as Iggy did before the injury." 

And that's because injuries to star players derail seasons. Plain and simple. Some players are so important to a team that they cannot be replaced, therefore the team's hopes are crushed. In this post I'd like to take a look at some of the key injured players (current or recently returned) around the league, and how their absence has/had their respective teams spiraling out of control.

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Russell Westbrook, PG, Oklahoma City Thunder:  This one's easy, isn't it? When Westbrook went down in the postseason (knee), the Thunder went from a legitimate championship contender to getting bounced by the Grizzlies, who could barely generate any offense at all. The Grizzlies couldn't contain Kevin Durant even without Westbrook's presence, which leads me to believe that OKC would have run away with that series had Russell been out there.

That logic follows through to this season, where the Thunder looked average without Westbrook in the early going and now, with him, they're 20-4 and dominating the league. I think Westbrook is the third best player in the NBA, behind LeBron James and Durant.

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Deron Williams, PG, Brooklyn Nets:  I can't really describe how frustrated I was when people kept asking me, "What's wrong with the Nets? What's wrong with the Nets?" when they were struggling mightily a few weeks back.

Well, let's see...maybe the problem was that D-Will, their versatile point guard who controls the pace and tempo of the entire team and holds the Nets' long-term fate in his hands, was injured (ankle) and replaced in the lineup by Shaun Livingston, the worst perimeter-shooting point guard in the NBA. 

And that seemed to be it, as the Nets have played extremely well since D-Will's return to the lineup, including quality victories over the Clippers and Celtics, and an absolute blow out of the stumbling 76ers. I fully expect the Nets to finish third in the Eastern Conference, provided D-Will and Brook Lopez remain healthy. 

D-Will has Joe Johnson (10 threes last outing), Andray Blatche, Mirza Teletovic and Alan Anderson in a nice collective rhythm right now, with Paul Pierce controlling the offense during Williams' breaks. It's safe to say that Jason Kidd is officially off the hot seat.

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Rajon Rondo, PG, Boston Celtics:  Led by outstanding rookie head coach Brad Stevens, the Celtics have been a nice story in the early going. Jeff Green is probably Boston's de facto top dog right now, but the Celtics' surprising competitiveness is largely a team effort. Avery Bradley, Brandon Bass, Jordan Crawford, Jared Sullinger, Vito Faverani, Kelly Olynyk, Kris Humphries and Gerald Wallace have all chipped in in different capacities.

However, the Celtics cannot reach their full potential without their star player and franchise point guard, Rajon Rondo, who has been out the entire season (ACL surgery). Bradley has been an admirable fill-in for Rajon, but he's not really a point guard. Bradley is a tenacious defender, but offensively he's more of a catch-and-shoot player than off-the-dribble playmaker for his teammates. Boston needs Rondo's facilitation if they want to contend for a middle seed in the East.

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Derrick Rose, PG, Chicago Bulls:  We all know the story at this point -- Derrick Rose is out for the season...again. Rather than re-hash the demoralizing injury situation, I'll just state the obvious:

The Bulls' offense is a joke without him. They are screwed. I knew they should have retained Nate Robinson (just in case) and well, here we are. The Bulls simply cannot contend without Rose. It's another lost season. And I predicted Bulls over Thunder in the Finals...I suck.

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Danilo Gallinari, SF, Denver Nuggets:  Under rookie head coach Brian Shaw, the Nuggets have done a decent job fighting for position in the loaded Western Conference. For the most part, they have protected their home court and won the games they should have (with the exception of that ugly home loss to the lowly Jazz). 

But it's overtly clear that this isn't the explosive offense we've seen in recent years, due in large part to the absence of Gallo (knee) at small forward. Ty Lawson facilitates for Denver and Wilson Chandler, JJ Hickson, Randy Foye, Nate Robinson and Jordan Hamilton pitch in offensively, but there's no consistency to Shaw's offense. The Nuggets need Gallo's consistent 16-22 points per game on the fastbreak and in the halfcourt. They cannot hang with the Thunder, Blazers, Spurs, Rockets, Clippers or Warriors without him.

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JJ Redick, SG, Los Angeles Clippers:  After a rough opening night against the city-rival Lakers, Doc Rivers' Clippers settled into a nice early season groove. Doc was adamant about having Redick in Los Angeles with him, and JJ was definitely paying dividends until he tore ligaments in his shooting hand. As a result, the Clippers offense has been choppy -- showing up on some evenings and disappearing on others. CP3 needs JJ's floor spacing, cutting and shooting off screens. The Clippers are not a top five team in the West without Redick.

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Marc Gasol, C, Memphis Grizzlies:  So I'm watching NBA TV last night and Ernie Johnson and Chris Webber keep saying things like, "What's wrong with Memphis this season? Why are they struggling so much?" Hmm...well...here we go again. 

Memphis was competing in the West until Gasol, the reigning Defensive Player of the Year, went down (knee). Alongside excellent point guard Mike Conley, Gasol is the most valuable two-way player on the Grizzlies. He controls the paint defensively and is an all-around contributor to Memphis' offense. They stink right now because Kosta Koufos is starting in his place. Not exactly the same caliber of player. You can't lose a guy like Marc Gasol in the West, and expect to compete at a high level.

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Anthony Davis, PF/C, New Orleans Pelicans:  One of the most dynamic young players in the NBA, Davis had the Pelicans looking like a formidable team before going down (broken hand). With Jrue Holiday, Eric Gordon and Ryan Anderson playing good ball, the Pelicans could be a 5 or 6 seed if completely healthy. However, the Davis injury has likely placed them in too deep a hole. They will probably miss the playoffs this season, unless they somehow scratch and claw for the 8-seed. If Davis can stay healthy in the future, this could be a very solid all-around team.

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Tyson Chandler, C, New York Knicks:  Yes, Mike Woodson is one of the worst head coaches in the NBA. Yes, Carmelo Anthony needs some assistance on the offensive side of the floor. Yes, JR Smith has been an absolute disaster since last postseason. 

All of these things are true. Nevertheless, the MAIN reason for the Knicks' struggles is the absence of their best leader, defender and rebounder, Mr. Chandler. Case in point...did you see the end of their last loss to the Wizards? Bradley Beal blew by Beno Udrih and who was there to help save the game defensively?

No one. 

Critics were complaining about Melo, saying he should have rotated over to the baseline -- and that's not entirely untrue -- but Melo is not a center! That shouldn't be his responsibility. Woodson should have had a true center on the floor, but that's a different story for a different day. Point is, the Knicks can't make noise in the East without Chandler -- they aren't that good! Critics should tone down the complaining. This isn't a championship-caliber team, even at full strength. 

HONORABLE MENTION

Michael Carter-Williams, G, Philadelphia 76ers:  Without this phenom, Philly has gone from one of the East's pleasant surprises to one of the absolute worst teams in the NBA. 

Larry Sanders, C, Milwaukee Bucks:  The Bucks are a joke without his athleticism, shotblocking and general defensive impact. They aren't really that good with him, either. 

That about wraps it up. Feel free to e-mail or comment. 

Saturday, December 7, 2013

Looking Ahead to the 2014 Mets: Is Curtis Granderson Really the Solution?

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Curtis Granderson is a good guy. Probably one of the nicest guys in baseball, and perhaps in all of professional sports. So what's the bad news about Sandy Alderson signing him to a four-year, $60 million contract?

Well, he's just not that great of a ballplayer. 

"Grandy" is currently 32 years old, and past his prime as a baserunner. In the last four seasons, he's stolen over 20 bases only once (25 in 2011 with the Yankees) and has just 18 in his last 221 games. Defensively, his range is obviously not what it used to be in his days as a Detroit Tiger, and his arm strength has always been well below average. 

But the Mets didn't sign him for his baserunning or defense, you say?

I suppose there is some merit to that, but it's not like Granderson is an exceptional offensive performer. Here are his strikeout totals from 2006-2012: 174 (most in the AL), 141, 111, 141, 116, 169 and 195. Notice the alarming jump from 2010 to 2012. He also struck out 16 times in 30 at bats in the 2012 postseason. 

Sixteen strikeouts in 30 at bats. Sure it's a small sample size, but if that doesn't concern you as a Mets fan, I don't know what will. I'm a Mets fan, and it sure as hell concerns me. So what's the good news, if any?

Well, he's definitely better than what we had in the outfield. Grandy's home run production has increased during the second half of his major league career, crushing 30, 24, 41 and 43 from 2009 to 2012. Hopefully his offensive production with the Mets will be assisted by the presence of David Wright and...um...I don't really know who else. 

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Let's take a look at our projected lineup as of December 7, 2013:

1. Eric Young-LF
2. Daniel Murphy-2B
3. David Wright-3B
4. Curtis Granderson-RF
5. Lucas Duda-1B
6. Chris Young-CF
7. Travis d'Arnaud-C
8. Ruben Tejada-SS

I mean, it's not the worst thing I've ever seen, but it doesn't exactly get me excited about our offensive possibilities for the 2014 season. There are also other factors to consider:

*Eric Young may end up playing second base because Alderson is open to trading Murphy. 

*Alderson says Chris Young is competing with Juan Lagares for the starting job in center field.

*Ike Davis isn't gone yet. I suppose, if he doesn't get traded, that he will have the opportunity to beat out Duda. Then there's also Josh Satin, who is a better pure hitter than both Duda and Ike. I don't really know where he fits in. 

*Just my opinion...I think we'd be better off with EY at second and Murphy at first. I don't like Duda or Ike. Then we could play Grandy, Young and Lagares in the outfield or sign one more major league ready outfielder to play alongside Chris Young and Grandy. 

*3B Wilmer Flores and OF Matt den Dekker are highly-regarded organizational pieces. We'll have to wait and see what their roles will be, provided they make the big league club out of spring training. 

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On to the pitching staff...

SP1-Jon Niese
SP2-Dillon Gee
SP3-Zack Wheeler
SP4-Jenrry Mejia
SP5-Carlos Torres

Mejia should squeak in there if healthy, but I hope Torres ends up in the bullpen by the time the regular season starts. There are still a number of intriguing starting pitchers available via free agency, including Bartolo Colon, Matt Garza, Bronson Arroyo, Ervin Santana, A.J. Burnett (considering retirement), Erik Bedard, Chris Capuano, Gavin Floyd, Roy Halladay, Jason Hammel, Paul Maholm and Clayton Richard

I would take any one of those guys over Torres as a starting pitcher. Hopefully Alderson pulls the trigger on someone in that group. Bullpen:

Closer-Bobby Parnell
RP-Scott Rice (L)
RP-Vic Black
RP-Gonzalez Germen
RP-Josh Edgin (L)
RP-Jeurys Familia
RP-TBD (frontrunner is likely Jeff Walters, former AA closer)

I mean, you look at that list and you know there are multiple question marks. I guess we have to cross our fingers and hope for the best with that group. 

Remaining interesting free agents:  Luis Ayala, Grant Balfour, Joaquin Benoit, Rafael Betancourt, Joba Chamberlain, Jesse Crain, Octavio Dotel, Kyle Farnsworth, Jason Frasor, Mike Gonzalez, Kevin Gregg, Joel Hanrahan, Carlos Marmol, Peter Moylan, Fernando Rodney and Jose Veras

Same idea here; I'd pretty much take any one of those guys over Familia and/or our mystery 7th man. Anyway, I'm heading out to dinner. Feel free to comment.