Friday, November 30, 2018

Mets Blockbuster! Our Team Debates the Pros and Cons of the Cano Deal

For the past few days, the Twitterverse has been flooded with speculation regarding potential trades between the New York Mets and Seattle Mariners. The big names in the projected deal are infielder Robinson Cano and closer Edwin Diaz, both of whom are (supposedly) on their way to Flushing. Possibly heading across the country to Seattle, are veteran OF Jay Bruce, RP Anthony Swarzak, 19-year old CF prospect Jarred Kelenic, 23-year old SP Justin Dunn and raw reliever Gerson Bautista.

Other names that have been thrown around in speculation are OF Mitch Haniger, SS Jean Segura and 2B Jeff McNeil. 

Last night, shit got crazy. The Fro Zone staff was engaged in heated debate about this potential deal. Here's the way it went down:


Tim Cappetta: Fire up those reactions!

John Frascella: I can't react unless we know if Jeff McNeil is involved. I'd like to know about Diaz and/or Haniger, too.

Dan Tancredi: No Haniger. Not sure where his name came from.

David Rothman: There was an update earlier this week that had him in it. Overall, my reaction: The Mets did something stupid again.

Cappetta: I don't know...if they get a top-flight closer and second baseman I'd say that's a good trade.

Raj Leventhal: Cano is not a "top-flight" 2B.

Rothman: Agreed. Not even close.

Leventhal: Four years ago? Yes. At 36 coming off PEDs? Yikes.

Nick Caputi: Cano is a good 2B at this point; not top-flight. Diaz will 100 percent be coming back in this deal.

Leventhal: Flip Diaz. No use for him on a 70-75 win team.

Caputi: Not happening. Why give up prospects for him, then?

Frascella: I'd like to have Segura in the deal.

Billy Valeriano: John, come back to earth. Mets have zero assets and aren't willing to absorb salary.

Caputi: There are talks about Segura actually being in it, and if he is, then Dunn, Kelenic and McNeil are all gone.

Rothman: Explain to me why we're eating money on Cano, rather than using it on useful players?

(Crickets.)

Valeriano: Segura will not be in this deal. It ain't happening.

Caputi: Billy, the Mets do have some assets.

Valeriano: Nick...wake up!

Caputi: They have a middle-of-the-pack farm system.

Valeriano: Segura or not, the Mets need to make this deal. F**k the prospects. They need to re-energize the franchise.

Frascella: Whenever talks heat up like this, people go nuts about prospects -- especially in the New York area.

Leventhal: If you're going to spend $15 million net on Cano, why not sign players who are younger than 35? It's classic Mets.

Valeriano: Heard the Mets are looking to trade Noah Syndergaard at the winter meetings, then sign a free agent starting pitcher.

Rothman: Only Leventhal thinks the Mets are trading Thor.

Leventhal: If they make this Cano deal, they won't trade Thor.

Tancredi: From what I've gathered, the trade is Bruce, Swarzak, Kelenic, Dunn and McNeil for Cano and Diaz.

Caputi: Nah, not gonna trade Kelenic, Dunn AND McNeil.

Rothman: That would be suicidal.

Caputi: Likely Dunn and Kelenic with Bruce and Swarzak.

Valeriano: So, Kelenic and Dunn are pretty much straight up for Diaz. Other two would be for Cano. Sounds fair to me.

Caputi: When it plays out, the Mets will probably be paying Cano like $14 million per year. To be honest, I'd like to keep Kelenic, who looks like a top prospect in the system.

Leventhal: So they are moving the No. 6 pick in last year's draft? Why?

Valeriano: Yeah, why trade the prospects? There are a ton of good closers out there. I think this is a fair deal, but I'd rather keep my prospects. Sign Craig Kimbrel, David Robertson or Andrew Miller.

Caputi: I think they will bring in Miller, as well.

Valeriano: Diaz only had one great year. Keep your prospects. Look at the Red Sox -- position players win you the World Series. Homegrown, cheap position players.

Frascella: Diaz had three dominant years. He's the best strikeout reliever in baseball; three years ago he struck out 88 in 51 innings. 89 in 66 the year after.

Valeriano: John, stop...I don't care about Ks.

Frascella: Ks are the key to being a dominant reliever. You want as few balls in play as possible.

Valeriano: John, you're losing credibility.

Frascella: Diaz was a top-three reliever this past season. Everyone has been saying that, so I know I'm not alone on this one.

Valeriano: All I'm saying is I don't want my closer to have a 3.50 ERA.

Caputi: He had a 3.27 ERA in 2017.

Frascella: 1.96 this past season. Regardless of whether or not we get Diaz, I do NOT want to trade McNeil. Professional approach; plays the same position as Cano. Seems superfluous to me.

Caputi: McNeil can play third, John.

Frascella: Yeah, I'd be happy to keep McNeil and get Cano. No swap.

Caputi: Yeah, Cano played first and third when he returned from PED suspension.



Frascella: All five of those guys from the Mets???

Caputi: Martino then said that one of the young guys may be pulled.

Frascella: I would imagine so. Brodie Van Wagenen would get crucified. That would be pure insanity.




Frascella: I woke up this morning and McNeil magically wasn't in the deal. Guess I'm running the Mets, now. 

Friday, November 16, 2018

AL Rookie of the Year OUTRAGE: Did Andujar & Torres Get Robbed?

When I use the term "outrage," I'm referring to local Yankee fans, of course.

But did Miguel Andujar and Gleyber Torres really get robbed in the AL Rookie of the Year voting? Or was Shohei Ohtani truly deserving of the award?

Let's take a closer look...

PART I: Comparing Torres to Ohtani

The Yankee fans keep harping on games played, but there isn't much of a disparity, here. Torres played in 123 games for the Yanks, whereas Ohtani hit in 104 for the Halos, while pitching in 10. If you count the rest required after pitching, that nullifies the games played argument. 

At the dish, Ohtani homered once every 14.8 at bats. Once every 17.9 ABs for Torres. Despite not being an everyday hitter, Ohtani homered 22 times, nearly matching Torres' 24. Torres has the slight edge in RBI, but Ohtani's BA was 14 points higher. Ohtani's OBP was also 21 points higher. Essentially, their offensive stats were comparable -- if I'm being kind -- but Torres isn't a two-way player. 

Ohtani whiffed 63 batters in 51 innings of work, to go along with a very solid 3.31 ERA. Considering his pitching in combination with comparable offensive stats, Ohtani clearly deserved the ROY vote over Torres. No contest, here. 

PART II: Comparing Andujar to Ohtani

This is where things get a bit more difficult. Andujar played in 149 games, to Ohtani's combined 114. Andujar was a steady offensive force for a Yankee team that won 100 games and reached the postseason.

On the other hand, Ohtani's Angels were again a disappointment, falling apart after a quick start and finishing with just 80 wins. As a frame of reference, the Angels had a $173 million payroll, compared to Oakland's $80 million. Billy Beane's A's finished with 17 more wins than the Angels, and made the playoffs.

So, as a voter, it's up to you if you want to consider the relative impact on winning. Andujar and Torres played for a successful team, and you know what? These weren't the dominant, runaway Yankees. Aaron Judge went down for a long stretch of time. Giancarlo Stanton suffered through a slump that seemed to last half the season. The inconsistency of New York's starting pitching was a problem throughout the year.

Torres and Andujar were key players; particularly the latter, who batted .297 with 27 HRs and 92 RBI. Andujar's 47 doubles were third-best in the MLB, tied with some guy named Mookie Betts -- the dominant AL MVP.

Andujar put up big-boy stats. He certainly didn't look like a rookie at the plate.

PART III: Johnny Fro's Vote

When Yankee fans were complaining around the office this week, I was agreeing with them. I would have voted for Andujar, I echoed. Reviewing everything with a fine-toothed comb, the verdict is more elusive. It's not so easy. 

Important peripheral stuff to consider: (1) The sheer WOW factor of Ohtani pitching and hitting so well. Jeff Passan, one of the most well-respected baseball writers in the world, wrote that Ohtani looked over-matched in the preseason. I think we were all surprised by Shohei's .285 BA and 22 HRs despite limited opportunities at the dish. 

I mean the kid pitched, and yet he was still the Angels' second-or-third best hitter behind Mike Trout (the other being Justin Upton). Hard not to be super impressed by that. 

And (2) Andujar was atrocious in the field. One of the worst defensive third basemen in the game. Growing pains of a young player; but the fact remains: he hurt the Yankees in some big spots, defensively. 

But, in fairness, there's a strong argument to be made that Andujar, as a rookie, was the Yankees' offensive MVP. Stanton's inconsistency was uber-frustrating, and Judge only had 413 at bats. 

So, Ohtani most certainly has the enticing wow factor, but Andujar was steady. He was there, day in and day out. He stayed healthy, en route to contributing in a major way to 100 wins. 

We're splitting hairs, here...but I'm going with Andujar. The Ohtani win can easily be justified, but I would have voted him second. But hey, what do I care?

My Jacob deGrom won the NL Cy Young. Go Mets!

Thursday, November 15, 2018

Cocky, Cohesive & Clutch: The REAL, Behind-the-Scenes Story of the 2004 Champion Oceanside Sailors

It was a bullet in the hole. 

I shuffled to my left and laid out, but couldn't get a damn glove on it. I slammed both hands down on the infield turf, and kept my head down in disgust. 

Then the crowd erupted. 

Confused, I quickly picked my head up and peered across the diamond -- the Smithtown batter was walking back toward his dugout, shaking his head in disbelief. 

I looked back over my left shoulder, and there was our All-Conference shortstop Jimmy Kelly, smirking. 

"I got you," he said. 

Astonisingly, Jimmy had sprinted behind me, backhanded the hard-hit ball and gunned down the runner...all the way from left field. 

It was 10-9, in the bottom of the 7th of the 2004 Long Island Championship Game. The old saying in baseball is that the lead-off runner scores over 60 percent of the time. Jimmy kept the lead-off man off base. Big right-hander Matt Wynn, in a clutch relief performance, took care of the rest. 

That's who the 2004 Oceanside Sailors were. We had each other's backs. And we still do, to this day. 

PART I: Our Induction into the Oceanside Hall of Fame

On the evening of November 13, 2018, our '04 County and Long Island Championship team was inducted into Oceanside's "Circle of Pride." Essentially, that's our Hall of Fame. It was a wonderful honor, and a fun night. 

Our assistant coach, Richie Woods, spoke on behalf of the team. Coach Woods put forth a valiant effort, recounting as many of the season's pivotal moments as he could. Alas, there's only so much one can say in a limited amount of time. A number of others were also being inducted into the Circle of Pride that night. 

So, we came away from the evening grateful and honored; but we all knew there was more to the story. The nitty-gritty details. The behind-the-scenes secrets. And it's time to tell the real story, right now...

PART II: Building the Core of a Championship Team

My incredible father-in-law, Michael Solow, is the President of Lynbrook Little League. Nowadays, he's lucky to get enough 11 and 12-year old players to field two teams. Back in 1998, when the '04 Sailors were in little league, there were twelve "Majors" teams. Oceanside Little League was so big that it was divided in half, into "American" and "National."

So, the best players in Oceanside were separated for much of the baseball season. Sam Ytuarte was the star of one team. Wynn the star of another. Frank Valeriano led a different team. Vinne Tricarico was a force. Some kid named "Johnny Fro" carried a team of his own, and Dan Kourie was the superstar of the National League.

One of our major advantages was that our managers were baseball lifers. My father John, Frank Valeriano Sr., Jimmy Kelly Sr., Rich Conte Sr. and Guy Tricarico were dedicated baseball men. They grew up when baseball was America's Pastime. Baseball was, and is, in their blood. We had proper instruction from the very beginning.

In the summers, our tournament teams remained separate. Sam, Frank, Jimmy and I never played with Dan, Eddie Risener, Peter and Mike Kirby or Evan Hernstat. For most of the year, we were rivals. Bitter competition breeds success. 

But we all knew we had talent; it was simply spread about town. Our best players couldn't wait to join forces. 

In 8th grade, we finally got our chance. 

Playing for Matt's father, George Wynn, we demolished all comers. Back in those days, I led off; followed by Frank, Matt, Dan, Vinne and Sam. We lost only one game that season. I believe we were 11-1. We were only 14 years old, but we were already confident, talented and together. We felt invincible. We never thought we would lose. 

During the summertime, as teens, we all played for excellent travel teams. Sam, Dan, Matt, Vinne and I played for the Long Island Tigers and won a National Championship. We played for legendary coach and umpire, Lou Petrucci, who managed Steven Matz and umpired Division-I baseball. My dad was our assistant coach. As core members of Lou's championship Tigers, we played in pressure-packed games, all over the country. 

We learned how to win tight games. We learned how to rely on each other, as brothers. 

The Kirbys, Risener, Hernstat, Chris Pearsall, Eric Feibusch and Anthony Conte all played high-level summer ball with the Oceanside Riptides. Even Jimmy played one season, with occasional appearances by Bobby Engelhard. The resilient Riptides were well-coached by Richie Conte Jr. (Anthony's older brother, a former Oceanside baseball star) and Pete and Mike's father, baseball-savvy Neil Kirby. They also went deep into some extremely competitive travel tournaments. 

Off the field, we spent all of our time together, playing wiffle ball, basketball, video games, etc. We were inseparable all year long. That goes a long way for team camaraderie. 

But you can only be kids, hangin' out for so long. Then high school comes. 

PART III: A Tight-Knit Team Begins High School Ball 

"High school ball" sounded intimidating, but not much changed. 

Under then-rookie manager Mike Postilio (who is now Oceanside's varsity head coach) and assistant coach Chris LoPiccolo, the Ytuarte-Kourie-Valeriano-Wynn-Frascella core went 21-3. Tricarico, John Grilli and Mikey Tierney were also key contributors to the team's dominance. 

Jimmy, Eddie, Mike, Pete, Evan, Eric, Chris, Bobby and Mikey Menna were still down in the middle school. Their time in the spotlight would come. 

In 2002, with some guys on varsity, some on JV and even one in the middle school (A.Conte), it was impossible for our group to maintain its unparalleled chemistry. Guys were all over the place. Results were mixed. 

So, when many of us rejoined forces for the 2003 varsity team, things weren't quite the same. Legendary manager Andy Morris had to learn the ins and outs of our group, which meant that some players were out of position. Some guys were batting where they normally wouldn't. The pitching rotation was a bit out of order. 

On pure talent and experience, we made the playoffs, despite the disjointed nature of the season. We didn't last long, as Farmingdale's polished left-hander, Keith Karlson, made quick work of us in the opening game of the postseason.  

One-and-done. We used to think we couldn't lose. Was the magic gone?

PART IV: The Magical 2004 Season Begins...

We came into the 2004 season talkin' smack. 

Yeah, we got bounced quickly in '03, but something felt different. In the preseason, the local papers were all talking about Plainview, Massapequa, Syosset and Mepham. No one was talking about us. We took offense. 

Trust me, you don't want to play us with a chip on our shoulder. 

So, we strutted around the hallways of the high school as if we had already won something. It was our little secret. Sam, Jimmy, Frank, Dan, Matt...we all knew what was in store for our competitors. The freight train was coming. Morris and Woods didn't quite understand it...yet. 

When we finally reached the regular season, we started rollin' right out of the gate. Sammy and I were dominating on the mound. Dan, Jimmy, Frankie and Matt were fantastic two-way threats -- hitting the piss out of the ball and playing spotless D in the field. Grilli was in the midst of a career year. Vinne and Evan played tremendous defense in left field. Mike Kirby was on base as much as anyone (usually getting hit by pitches). 

Our bench was, by far, the best in the County. I mean, really, second-to-none. 

Pete Kirby would have been a front-line starter on other high school teams. He also popped a couple dingers at the plate. Bobby had one of the most powerful bats in the County; he was also a solid long man out of the bullpen. Two more Mikes, Tierney and Menna, brought speed, unselfishness and timely hitting when called upon. 

Eddie would have been a full-time starting catcher on virtually every other team. He had a live bat and excellent leadership skills. Eric, though unassuming in stature, was another legit two-way threat -- he could field and hit well. Chris was one of the fastest athletes in all of Nassau County. He went on to secure a collegiate track scholarship. Evan improved every single year. By the time we reached men's league, he was easily one of our premier all-around players.

Frank threw 92 MPH and featured a devastating breaking ball...and he was our No. 4 starting pitcher. What kind of high school team is that?

There were no holes on our team. And we all knew it. We weren't exactly modest about it, either. 

We knew something special was happening when we took the season series from our hated rivals, the Massapequa Chiefs, at 'Pequa. From JV up through senior year, our match-ups with 'Pequa were always nip-and-tuck. Often they'd clip us in tight games at their field. 

But not in 2004. In a 4-4 game of a 1-1 series, I hit a three-run homer off my buddy and summer-ball teammate, Chris Edgar, to put us up 7-4 in the 7th. To close it out, our defense behind me was spectacular. Massapequa was hitting rockets off me all game, but Dan, Matt, Frank, Jimmy and Anthony kept coming up with one big play after another. It was another total team effort, and a huge series win. 

We knew we could beat anyone, then. 

PART V: The Playoffs

Again, we were being disrespected.

Leading into an early playoff game against Mepham, Newsday was ranting and raving about how good they were. All of the press was about their left-handed flamethrower, Mike Gionesi, who was getting plenty of attention from pro scouts.

We had no intention of bowing down for Mr. Gionesi. He was about to be taught a lesson.

Wynn greeted him rudely, with a two-run single that plated M.Kirby and Kourie. I followed with a two-run double. When I reached second base, I looked over into the stands and our fans were going bonkers. I yelled at the top of my lungs in excitement. Mepham's shortstop Evan Okon, who was considered a serious prospect, looked at me as if I was nuts. He also looked scared. And defeated.

After getting knocked around a while longer, Gionesi kept looking over at his manager. He was hoping to get yanked. He couldn't take the beating any longer. But it didn't end there.

Shortly after, with runners on, Wynn hit an absolute missile into Gionesi's leg. The big left-hander tumbled into the dirt. He was flopping around on the ground like a fish out of water. We laughed and poured it on, because that's who we were.

Ask any parent, teacher or administrator about our group off the field, and they will tell you we are polite, respectful and caring. That's because it's true. But on the field, we morphed. We weren't nice. We never showed the opposing team much respect. We just wanted to beat everyone. No mercy.

In that game, our lefty -- the REAL lefty in the match-up -- Sam Ytuarte, dominated Mepham's supposedly superb hitters. They looked as if they had never played baseball against Sam. That's how dominant he was.

But then came Plainview -- the first time. We got off to a really rough start, and people seem to forget about that. 

We had secured a two-loss elimination cushion for the postseason; but it looked like we were about to cough up one of those losses. In fact, our early struggles against Plainview were all my fault. Everything I threw in the first inning got hammered. They didn't seem fooled by my junk at all, and their home crowd was having a field day at my expense. They were maniacs in the stands. They spit on the home-plate umpire. Literally. 

We were down 3-0 in the first, and Coach Morris strolled slowly out to the mound. Two guys were warming in the bullpen. He took the ball out of my hand. 

"I can't get a f***king out," I said. 

"Well, you better start gettin' em," he replied. 

"You going to the pen?"

"Nope," he said, "you're pitching this whole game, one way or another. I don't care what the score is."

Then he flipped the ball back to me, and walked away. That was it. 

I proceeded to throw a no-hitter for the rest of the game. We came back and won because Plainview's starting pitcher, intimidating lefty Tom Hopkins, walked one too many batters. We had patient at bats all game, and eventually he cracked. He threw in the upper-80s, but over the long haul, he was no match for our professional hitters. We pushed him past his breaking point. 

I may or may not have made some impolite comments to him during the game. I don't think he approved. This came back to haunt me. 

A few days later, we dispatched Massapequa from the postseason, behind another lights-out performance from Sammy. Our hated rivals were no match for us in '04. Like that, they were gone. 

PART VI: The County Championship

Of course, we circled back to Plainview. The year prior, they made it all the way to the State Finals. But three of their star players, Bryan Cipolla, Jason Appel and Jason Bonder, had since graduated, so we knew the door was ajar. It was still our time. This new Plainview team was led by Hopkins, electric ace pitcher Ben Green, shortstop Mike Rutcofsky and defensive whiz Jared Stoler (who now coaches in the Oceanside system). 

These guys weren't about to roll over and play dead. And there was bad blood between the teams. An explosion was looming. 

Green and I were locked in a pitcher's duel in Game 1. In a 0-0 tie in the 5th, Coach Morris picked a good time to make his best move of the season. 

As Green continued to mow us down, featuring a near 90 MPH fastball and a wicked breaking ball, Morris felt he had to shake things up. He looked down his bench and found his man: Engelhard. The 6'3" power hitter always had a chance to catch lightning in a bottle, with thunder in his bat.

As a pinch hitter, Bobby strolled up there looking awfully relaxed. Mike Kirby turned to me, and said:

"He could hit one out, right here."

"He's the man to do it," I replied.

A moment later...KABOOM! Bobby delivered with a beautifully-struck solo homer to right field. The raucous Plainview crowd was stunned. On the hill, Green was confused -- he hadn't given up more than a single all season.

Morris just nodded, as if he knew what was coming. Talk about a clutch homer.

Plainview then chipped away to tie it at 1, which brought us to the now-infamous 6th inning. 

I was in a jam with runners on the corners. I had just walked Hopkins, who was chirping at me from first base. Earlier in the game, I caught his weak pop-up and talked shit to him. He said I should watch myself. 

With Hopkins leading off first, I picked him off in a blink. He was in a pickle, and it wasn't going to end well for him. Here's Newsday's explanation of what happened. 

Here's what really happened: I threw to Wynn, Hopkins sprinted toward 2nd, Wynn threw to Kelly, I ran to 1st to back Wynn up, then Hopkins turned back toward 1st, where I was covering the bag. 

I saw his eyes light up. 

He had been telling me to watch myself, and this was his chance. He charged at me like a wild bull. I am not a matador in my spare time. 

So picture Hopkins, roughly 6'4" and athletically-built, charging at little Fro, all of 5'8" and 160 pounds. When Hopkins hammered me with his forearm, it didn't take long for the benches to empty. Mayhem ensued. Newsday left this out of their story. 

I hopped up off the dirt and stormed at Hopkins. 

"What are you gonna do, little man?" he asked. (A reasonable question, I'd say.)

"I'm gonna f**k you up!" I screamed. 

He laughed. 

As I raised my right arm in retaliation, someone grabbed me from behind. I was ready to throw a punch...but it was Coach Morris. 

"You're not getting thrown out of this game," he said. A wise man. 

Instead, Vinne came all the way from left field to corral Hopkins. There was pushing and shoving on both sides, and eventually the umpires broke up the fracas. When it was all said and done, Hopkins got tossed. I got to stay in the game and keep pitching. 

Green and I traded metaphorical blows until we got the break we needed. With a man on third and two outs, I was up against Green in extra innings. His fastball still had a lot of life on it. I was impressed by what a bulldog he was. 

Lo and behold, he overpowered me with one of those upper-80s fastballs. I was late, and popped up weakly over to Scott Eliot at first base. 

But something just didn't look right. Eliot's legs looked shaky, and the ball was wobbling in the air. It wasn't a particularly windy day, but I swear a gust blew at that very moment. What started as a weak pop-up, rapidly became a very difficult play. 

A play Eliot wouldn't make. 

He dropped the ball, and the go-ahead run scored. My understanding is that, to this day, he's still tormented by Plainview fans. I really do feel bad for the kid. He seemed like a very nice fellow. 

Nevertheless, we'll take runs any way we can get them. I nailed it down in the bottom-half of the inning, and we took a 1-0 lead in the best-of-three series. 

Adding insult to injury for Plainview, Hopkins was suspended for Game 2 for his "absolutely malicious" forearm to my neck. He was their scheduled starting pitcher. Instead, they were forced to use an inexperienced pitcher with well below-average stuff. 

We cleaned his clock. It was a blowout from the get-go. 

Again -- like he always has -- Sammy delivered with a clutch performance on the mound. The Plainview offense had no answer for Sammy's famous tailing fastball. They poked, prodded and whiffed. They continually came up empty. 

We cruised to an easy victory, and the 2004 Nassau County Championship was ours. 

PART VII: The Long Island Championship Game

Why this wasn't a best-of-three series? I'll never know. The County Championship was best-of-three. 

And yet, in a way, the Long Island Championship game ended up as a best-of-three. How could it be both, you ask?

Rain. Lots of rain. Not to mention thunder and lightning. The game started and stopped multiple times. The bus ride was well over an hour, each way. We went back-and-forth three separate times. It was impossible for anyone to get a rhythm.

It was a tight game after the first two stoppages, but when we returned to the field, Smithtown took a commanding lead. The home-plate umpire wouldn't call any strikes for me, Sam or Smithtown's star pitcher, Shane Sveda. It was an excruciating game for pitchers on both sides. I got hit hard. Frankie hit two clutch homers for us. Dan smashed another. Balls were flying all over the park.

When the fireworks finally stopped, we looked up at the score and it was 9-4, Smithtown. It was the top of the 7th. Last licks. Three little outs away from devastating disappointment.

What ensued was a bizarre and astonishing comeback. We knew the umpire's strikezone was extremely small, so we talked strategy in the dugout. Take some pitches. Work the count. Put all of the pressure on their pitcher. This was a veteran strategy from a group of 16, 17 and 18 year-olds.

And, by God...it worked.

One after another, our guys either walked, got hit by pitches or grinded their way on base. You could see the panic on the faces of the Smithtown infielders. None of their guys wanted the ball. They were hoping it wouldn't come to them. Then, in the biggest moment, their shortstop booted a slow-rolling grounder.

The impossible had happened. In our final at bat, we came back from a 9-4 deficit to take a shocking 10-9 lead.

That brings us back to where we started. Hard-hit ball in the hole. Jimmy makes a spectacular play. Matt slams the door on Smithtown.

The Oceanside Sailors, miraculously, became the 2004 Long Island champions.

PART VIII: Conclusion: What Made This Group Special?

We weren't the biggest team on Long Island. We weren't the most talented. 

But we were the most cohesive. At all times, we were a unit. We had some big individual personalities, but everyone played for the greater good of the team. We were clutch. We never gave our opponents too much respect. We always played with something to prove. We had inherent belief in ourselves as individual players, as well as the collective ability of the team. 

Matt Wynn and John Grilli were selected for the All-Division team. 

Jimmy Kelly, Frank Valeriano and I were honored to be All-Conference award winners. 

Sam Ytuarte and Dan Kourie were deservedly selected first-team, All-State. 

And now, here we are nearly 15 years later, and many of us are as close as ever. I got married to my beautiful wife Jennifer this year, and Frank was one of my groomsmen. And I had two best men: Sam and Jimmy. 

The 2004 Oceanside Sailors...

Teammates for life. 

Thursday, November 8, 2018

John Frascella's Top 50 MLB Free Agents: Rankings and Landing Spots for Harper, Machado and More...

Bryce Harper. Manny Machado. Two of baseball's biggest stars are relaxing with their feet up right now, waiting for their nine-figure paydays. Must be nice.

But after the megastars we all know about, who are the best MLB free agents out there, and where will they land? No time to waste. Let's get right into it...

PART I: HONORABLE MENTION


**EDITOR'S NOTE: Transactions are happening quickly, so the list of available free agents is subject to rapid change. **

Ervin Santana, SP, Projected landing spot: Padres

Santana had finger issues and a 8.03 ERA in five starts last season, but he's a one-year deal, buy-low kind of guy. The Padres did this recently with Tyson Ross. They may try it again, here. 

Drew Pomeranz, SP, Projection: Rangers

Pomeranz was solid a couple seasons ago, but this lumbering lefty always gets hurt. He simply cannot be trusted. The Rangers like taking shots on vets like this. 

James Shields, SP, Projection: Reds

LOL, I can't believe I'm writing a blurb for "Big-Game" James. But ya know what? The guy gives you innings. They may not be good innings, but he tossed 204 last season. He's mostly durable, and can fill out the back end of a rotation on a bad team.

Denard Span, OF, Projection: Blue Jays

He's been a real solid professional ballplayer for a long time now, but age is finally beginning to catch up with him. A good fifth outfielder, though. For the Jays he'd be more like fourth.

PART II: MLB TOP 50 FREE AGENTS

50. Anibal Sanchez, SP, Projection: Phillies

Similarly to Shields, I can't believe Anibal made it on to this list. From 2015 to 2017, this old righty's ERA jumped from 4.99 to 5.87 to 6.41. Then, magically, last season it dropped all the way down to 2.83 with the Braves. His FIP wasn't that far off, either. Phillies make sense because they saw him up close and personal with the division-rival Braves. 

49. Josh Harrison, Utility, Projection: Diamondbacks

His offensive numbers have been dipping, but his versatility is valuable, as well as his day-to-day energy. Good guy for the clubhouse. The D'Backs will need a utility man if Daniel Descalso goes elsewhere. 

48. Lance Lynn, SP, Projection: Rangers

Lynn struck out 61 in 54 innings with the Yankees, and his fastball was still there. It isn't always pretty when he's up on the bump, but he's a bulldog. He'll always compete. He reminds me of a poor man's John Lackey. 

47. Yasmani Grandal, C, Projection: Diamondbacks

I'm sorry, I'm just not a Yasmani Grandal guy. He's developed a big name because of his exposure with the Dodgers, but he kills rallies and is extremely sloppy behind the dish. Not gonna be worth the money he gets. (Just read that the Mets are interested in him. Makes sense. We're stupid.)

46. Evan Gattis, Utility, Projection: Pirates

He's not really a catcher. Not really a first baseman, either. I've even seen him in the outfield on rare occasions, too. With Gattis, you don't care about his glove. You just wait for the bombs. The Pirates could desperately use some of those. 

45. Joakim Soria, RP, Projection: Astros

Like Grandal, I'm not really a Soria guy. Injuries have caused a stop-and-go flow for his career, and I don't trust his velocity at this point. He was an elite reliever back in his Royals days, but now he's more of a middle-of-the-pack righty. 

44. Brad Brach, RP, Projection: Braves

With all of Zach Britton's injuries over the years, Brach's had a number of opportunities to close with the Orioles. He has a solid amount of high-leverage experience. After coming over to the NL with the Braves, he tossed the ball very well. Mid-to-upper 90s with his heat when he's on. Makes sense for the Braves to hang on to him. 

43. Clay Buchholz, SP, Projection: Royals

Essentially the same storyline as Anibal Sanchez, but I've always liked Buchholz's stuff a bit better. Pitched extremely well for the D'Backs down the stretch. That will be awfully hard for him to maintain in '19. Injury risk, of course. 

42. Daniel Descalso, Utility, Projection: A's

One of the most valuable utilitymen and bench players in all of baseball. Clutch hitter with a superb eye, with the flexibility to play anywhere in the infield. Billy Beane may need a guy like this if Jed Lowrie skips town. 

41. Joe Mauer, 1B, Projection: Indians

Lot of moving parts to this one: (1) Mauer is considering retirement, (2) to continue playing, I'd assume he'd have to get interest from a contender and (3) the Indians might be cleaning house. Hard to even say how good they will be. But, the Indians have been consistently winning the AL Central, and they are very familiar with Mauer's work with the Twins. 

40. Andrew McCutchen, OF, Projection: Tigers

He looked so small and weak with the Yankees. Maybe he had a different "weight training" program in the past, with the Pirates. I think he's mostly finished at this stage of his excellent career, but at least he walks. He'll find ways to get on base, but I think the homers and deep doubles are gone. 

39. Lonnie Chisenhall, Utility, Projection: Twins

This guy is a professional hitter, but he can't stay on the field. He's really a low-risk signing though, and I would actually love for my Mets to get him on the cheap. However, I think he lands as an extra bat for the Twins, as Mauer retires or changes teams. 

38. Jeurys Familia, RP, Projection: Cardinals

Not exactly sure if he'll be signed as a closer. He still has the live arm and heavy sinker, but his mental makeup is always in question. Should still be effective as a setup man in the NL, though. 

37. Jeremy Hellickson, SP, Projection: Mets

Bounced back beautifully with the Nats last season, and the Mets know him well between Washington and Philadelphia. New Mets GM Brodie Van Wagenen should be looking to push overpaid Jason Vargas out of his rotation, and Hellickson would be an affordable fit.

36. Gerardo Parra, OF, Projection: Rays

Mallex Smith just got traded, so this becomes a reasonable fit. Parra is a very solid lefty bat, most effective as a platoon specialist against right-handed pitching. Overall, he's a good ballplayer. The Rays front office recognizes good ballplayers.

35. Carlos Gonzalez, OF, Projection: Orioles

This vet's better days are probably behind him, but the Orioles will need an outfield replacement for Adam Jones. "Cargo" is used to friendly home parks, and Camden is generous like Coors Field.

34. Ian Kinsler, 2B, Projection: Nationals

He's one of the oldest guys in the game, but Kinsler snatched a Gold Glove this season, anyway. He's still got it in the field. The pop is mostly gone from his bat, but he'll give you professional at bats and some line-drive base hits.

33. Steven Pearce, 1B, Projection: Angels

Steve Pearce is the reigning World Series MVP. That just sounds weird, doesn't it? This is when dumb teams overreact to the short-term. Pearce is a very good specialist against left-handed pitching, but I could see the Angels signing him for big bucks as a full-time player. Like I said...dumb teams.

32. Asdrubal Cabrera, Infielder, Projection: Cubs

Coming off a couple solid years. Switch-hitting veteran who can play 2B, SS and 3B, as needed. Can replace Daniel Murphy with the Cubs. "Drubs" is a clutch player who can handle the media and fan scrutiny in Chicago.

31. Garrett Richards, SP, Projection: Mariners

Recovering from Tommy John surgery, but maybe you give him a two or three-year deal with incentives. When healthy, Richards features an explosive fastball and sharp breaking ball. He may never be himself again...or he may end up as a steal on this flooded market.

30. Adrian Beltre, 3B, Projection: Rangers

Thirty-nine years old and battling hip and hamstring injuries, it's clear the end is near for one of the greatest third basemen in the history of the MLB. Beltre can still rake when healthy, though. I think he either retires or rejoins the Rangers.

29. Cody Allen, RP, Projection: White Sox

Finally came back down to earth this past season. Allen has been walking a tightrope for a few years, getting himself into jams with wildness and the inability to put away pesky hitters with his fastball. He has a devastating breaking ball, but he needs to get more outs with his heat. He would close for the ChiSox.

28. Zach Britton, RP, Projection: Rockies

Britton falls into that category with Grandal and Soria -- I'm just not a huge fan. Still riding the coattails of one of the greatest relief seasons of all time (0.54 ERA with 47 saves in 2016), people seem to forget that this guy gets injured every other month. We all love his power, left-handed sinker which induces a ridiculous groundball rate, but I'd personally like to see him out on the mound more often. If Adam Ottavino cashes in elsewhere, Britton makes perfect sense for the Rockies, especially with his sinker at Coors.

27. J.A. Happ, SP, Projection: Twins

A reliable lefty with a calm demeanor. You know what you're going to get from Happ. A safe investment as a mid-rotation starter.

26. Charlie Morton, SP, Projection: Rockies

The Rocks might as well pair the sinkerballers. Obviously heavy sinkers are ideal for Coors Field. Morton in the rotation and Britton in the bullpen would make total sense for Colorado.

25. Adam Ottavino, RP, Projection: Mets

The Mets already have reported interest, and I don't really want Ottavino, so that means we will get him. His nerves were SHAKY in the postseason. He was god awful. I don't want weak-minded guys at the back of my bullpen. His numbers were shiny this past season, though.

24. Kelvin Herrera, RP, Projection: Dodgers

The recent ligament surgery is concerning, but I have more faith in Herrera's resolve than Ottavino's. We know, when he's right, Herrera can touch 98-99. Could be an effective setup man for a contender, if he can land comfortably on his left foot.

23. Adam Jones, OF, Projection: Tigers

Had a consistent run of productivity, before dropping down to just 15 dingers last season. That isn't very good at Camden. But overall he's been a good teammate and solid all-around ballplayer. The young Tigers could use the leadership and, well, any base hits.

22. Hyun-Jin Ryu, SP, Projection: Dodgers

Another injury-prone guy, but he's a lefty with very good stuff. Dodgers extended a qualifying offer of $17.9 million. Ryu probably finds his way back to L.A.

21. Nathan Eovaldi, SP, Projection: Brewers

Everyone's goin' crazy over Eovaldi because he throws hard. He's always thrown hard -- but is he really that good? (4.16 lifetime ERA, only 640 Ks in 850 innings.) Regardless, he'll probably get front-line money because of the recent hype. Craig Counsell's Brewers have leaned so heavily on their bullpen that they could use a starter like Eovaldi, overpaid or not.

20. Wilson Ramos, C, Projection: Angels

One of the best offensive catchers in the game, Ramos could assist Mike Trout in run production. The latter needs all the help he can get. Angels have already been tied to Ramos.

19. Gio Gonzalez, SP, Projection: Phillies

Why is everybody so down on this guy, all of a sudden? Because he had a high-ankle sprain in the playoffs? Because of a (sort of) down year? (4.21 ERA with 148 Ks.) This experienced left-hander has thrown 170-plus innings four consecutive seasons. Over 200 innings three times. 3.69 career ERA with good movement on his fastball and a signature, buckling curve. He should continue being a quality starting pitcher in the NL.

18. Brian Dozier, 2B, Projection: Astros

The problem here is market value. Dozier has arguably been the best power-hitting second baseman of his generation, but he's coming off an atrocious season at the absolute worst time. Still, he's a big name on this market, and someone will definitely overpay for his services. I just feel like the "naked power hitter" thing is over with. Homers with no one on base can be found. How about base hits with runners in scoring position?

17. Michael Brantley, OF, Projection: A's

In terms of pure ability, Brantley is probably a top-15 player on this list. However, like Britton, Ryu and Chisenhall before him, his alarming history of injuries makes him a risky proposition. If he can stay healthy, he's a steal at almost any pricepoint. If it ends up being the A's, they'll probably get him below market.

16. Marwin Gonzalez, Utility, Projection: Braves

Marwin was on fire throughout the 2017 MLB campaign, but '18 was a different story. He was ice cold for the entire first half of the year. He settled in for some solid stretches in the second half, but it was an underwhelming season on the whole. That doesn't really hurt his perceived value, though, because he is best known for his position versatility. Jon Heyman says Gonzalez has received interest from "everyone but one team." This dude's about to get paid.

15. Mike Moustakas, 3B, Projection: Padres

Makes sense for him to join his buddy, Eric Hosmer, in sunny San Diego. "The Moose" is perennially underrated, maybe because he doesn't exactly look like a world-class athlete. Who cares? He hits in the clutch and is experienced under pressure. He mashes homers and drives in runs. The Pads should welcome him with open arms. I know Hosmer would.

14. Josh Donaldson, 3B, Projection: Orioles

Definitely scared teams away with a clunker of a season. Looked like an old, broken-down has-been. This makes Donaldson more of a buy candidate for weaker teams looking to take shots on bounce-back players. We've seen guys like Chris Davis and Mark Trumbo fool people with Camden stats before. This would be a good place for Donaldson to "rehabilitate his image." Yeah, that's a Social Network reference.

13. D.J. LeMahieu, 2B, Projection: Dodgers

The NL Gold Glove winner is also a former batting champion (.348 in 2016). He's 30 years old with good athleticism, gap-to-gap ability and one of the best gloves in the game. A major-market team is gonna have to fork over the big money for LeMahieu.

12. Nick Markakis, OF, Projection: Indians

This savvy veteran knows exactly what to do in a contract year: make the all-star team and win a Gold Glove. Markakis is simply as steady as they come. If you look up "professional ballplayer" in the dictionary, you will see a picture of him, expressionless, just doing his job. That's what he does. You can count on him offensively and defensively. Provides professional at bats, perfect throws from the outfield and leadership by example. He would literally improve any team in the MLB.

11. Andrew Miller, RP, Projection: Cardinals

Like I wrote about Brantley earlier -- Miller's actual ranking, in terms of skill and ability, is probably higher than this. But, when investing on the open market, we must consider risk. When I see "shoulder impingement" in reference to a veteran pitcher, I start running in the other direction. Miller has been severely overworked in the past 4-5 seasons, too. He's probably the best left-handed reliever in baseball, but...buyer beware.

PART III: THE BEST OF THE BEST. TOP 10!

10. Jed Lowrie, Infielder, Projection: Rays

From one small-market team to another. Like Markakis, Lowrie delivered in his contract year to the tune of 23 homers and 99 RBI -- both career highs. The homers were definitely surprising, but the RBI were, in part, a function of the MLB's realization that contact hitters belong in the meat of the order. Why have all-or-nothing home run hitters in the middle, where they can strand runners and frustrate the coaches and fans? Lowrie gets hits with runners on. He can play 3B, SS and 2B as needed. That's value. 

9. Daniel Murphy, Infielder, Projection: Rockies

Would slide in nicely in LeMahieu's place. Murph has hit .286 or better in EIGHT straight seasons. Textbook definition of a professional hitter. He's fantastic with RISP. 

8. A.J. Pollock, OF, Projection: Mariners

A few years ago he was gaining momentum as "one of the best young outfielders in the game," but he's another kid who just can't stay on the field. Maybe he plays too hard. Always getting hurt diving, sliding, etc. But hey, he has a ton of talent as an all-around ballplayer. If the Mariners are thinking about cleaning house like the Indians, Pollock is a great fit for the new blood. 

7. Dallas Keuchel, SP, Projection: Red Sox

Stockpiling lefties, much? Keuchel's a risky investment on this market because he will command too much money. Yes, he's "crafty" and "smart," which is another way of saying "soft-tossing lefty." How much do you wanna invest in a soft-tossing lefty in an era where everyone else throws 100 MPH? With their payroll, the Red Sox don't have to worry about anything like that. They can just add Keuchel to Chris Sale and David Price. Lefty paradise. 

6. David Robertson, RP, Projection: Red Sox

If Markakis is a "professional ballplayer" and Murphy is a "professional hitter," then Robertson is a "professional pitcher." Throws strikes. Ton of experience. Reliable and smooth with a wicked hammer. Wish my Mets would get him, but the Sox are gonna need a replacement for No. 4 on my list.

5. Patrick Corbin, SP, Projection: Yankees

This 29-year old lefty is a two-time all-star with a mixed bag of results. He was a legitimate Cy Young candidate in the first half of the 2013 season, and he followed that up with a Tommy John surgery and long recovery. He came back solid in '15, but struggled throughout '16 and some of '17. This past season, Corbin finally appeared to be back, striking out 246 batters in 200 strong innings. Like Markakis and Lowrie, he delivered in his walk year. Open up your wallet -- wide -- Hal Steinbrenner.

4. Craig Kimbrel, RP, Projection: Phillies

The Phils have the financial flexibility right now, and they are already hot on Kimbrel's tail. He absolutely sucked in the playoffs, but there's no denying the fact that he's been one of the greatest closers of his generation...and probably of all time.

3. Nelson Cruz, OF/DH, Projection: Astros

I think he's been the most underrated player in the MLB for quite some time now. He's easily one of the top three or four power hitters in the world, but he can also hit for average and drive in runs with base hits (as opposed to generating all production from the longball). He's a consistently dominant force in the middle of MLB lineups. The 'Stros don't like the way things went down against the Red Sox. They aren't going quietly in 2019. Cruz is the impact player they need and want.

2. Manny Machado, SS/3B, Projection: Phillies

Wowwww, how 'bout these Phillies? Pickin' up two of the top four free agents on the market? We'll see if that comes to fruition. We're splitting hairs with the man at the No. 1 spot, but Machado scared away some scouts and execs with his bizarre and unprofessional behavior throughout the postseason. Is he the leader you need for the salary he's going to command? Philadelphia isn't worried about that right now. They just want to dramatically improve their talent base, and who can blame them? Philly really could be the landing spot.

1. Bryce Harper, OF, Projection: Cardinals

For a long time, the Cardinals were the class of the NL Central; but then, Theo Epstein rebuilt the Chicago Cubs. Then the Brewers bolstered their already-potent offense with Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain. Josh Hader exploded onto the scene. All of a sudden, the once-invincible Cardinals started feeling like a middle-of-the-pack club in the Central. Now the front office is leaking things like, "We're not really that interested in Bryce Harper. Not as much as people think." Yeah, riiiiiiight. Sure, I believe that. That is classic disinformation through the media. If the Phillies favor Machado, I think Harper ends up in St. Louis. And one more thing...

Brian Cashman and the Yankees could always sneak up on you when you least expect it. 

Tuesday, November 6, 2018

NFL Head Coach Power Rankings, Part III: Has McVay Surpassed Almighty Belichick?

Earlier this season I ranked the worst head coaches in the NFL. Hue Jackson has since been fired, and hopefully Todd Bowles is next. In Part II of my coach rankings, we actually found a little hope. Young masterminds Matt Nagy and Kyle Shanahan led the way with creative playcalling and maximization of player skillsets.

Now it's time for the big boys. The best of the best. Let's get right into it...

10. Doug Marrone, Jaguars: Things have taken a turn for the worse in recent weeks, but you have to appreciate what Marrone did with an overachieving team last season. Preceding Marrone, Gus Bradley, Mike Mularkey and Mel Tucker couldn't do anything positive with the Jaguars. I'm telling you...it's really freakin' hard to win with Blake Bortles taking your snaps.

And yet, Marrone did that last season. His Jags were just a few plays away from upsetting the all-powerful Patriots in the AFC Championship Game. Marrone analyzed his personnel heading into the season, and he knew they'd have to be a "ground-and-pound" team. Last year's Jags were not all that dissimilar from the Mark Sanchez Jets. Marrone squeezes every possible ounce out of his personnel.

9. Mike Zimmer, Vikings: A steady force with more technical knowledge on the defensive side of the ball. It hasn't been as smooth this season, but the Vikings are still one of the better teams in the NFC. Clearly behind the Saints and Rams, though.

8. Ron Rivera, Panthers: "Riverboat" Ron, baby! This guy knows how to motivate his players. He never shows anything but the utmost confidence in his guys, and they have responded with four playoff appearances in the past five seasons. Cam Newton and Christian McCaffrey are rollin' right now, too. Riverboat is a reliable leader on the sidelines.

7. Pete Carroll, Seahawks: I wouldn't exactly call him an X's and O's guy, but his Seahawks have been steady for many years now. Carroll is like Rivera, just a bit more animated and energetic. Both guys are classic, old-school football coaches. You can't win if your players don't get behind you.

6. Doug Pederson, Eagles: Maybe I'm a liiiiiittle biased here? I mean, how awesome was that "Philly Special" in the Eagles' dramatic Super Bowl victory over the Evil Empire? That play spoke volumes about Pederson as a head coach and leader of men. He showed total trust in Nick Foles, who -- let's be honest -- is really just a back-up quarterback. But Foles knows his way around an NFL field. Pederson knew that. It's a player/coach decision that changed the history of football. I expect Pederson's Eagles to fly past Jay Gruden's Redskins before season's end.

5. Sean Payton, Saints: After a three-year run of 7-9 seasons, Payton and Hall of Famer Drew Brees have righted the ship, to the tune of 18 wins and just six losses in their last 24 regular-season games. They are back atop the NFC mountain. The message was clear to the Rams this weekend: this ain't your conference yet, kids.

4. John Harbaugh, Ravens: I just feel like the Ravens' front office never does enough. Or maybe Joe Flacco is just one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the league. It's probably a little bit of both. But Harbaugh maximizes production on both ends of the field, and he's a head football coach you can rely on. He's passionate, sharp and proven. Hopefully his brother will come coach my Jets.

3. Sean McVay, Rams: Anyone else watch that episode of Real Sports during the NFL offseason? McVay is a f***king beast! Awake before anyone else in the world, driving to the Rams' complex to study film like an addicted maniac. And that's what it takes. That's the type of head coach who single-handedly takes his team to the next level. If you want to make an argument that he's the best football coach in the world, I won't argue with you.

2. Andy Reid, Chiefs: Did we really expect him to win Super Bowls with Alex Smith? Playoff games...maybe. But Super Bowls? Nah. Reid maximizes what he has, every single season. It's clear that he's cultivated a fantastic working relationship with young superstar Pat Mahomes. Reid's Chiefs are smartly built, with explosive playmakers like Tyreek Hill, Kareem Hunt, Travis Kelce and Sammy Watkins surrounding Mahomes. Seems like Reid's boys are headed full steam ahead for...

1. Bill Belichick, Patriots: A Patriots-Chiefs AFC Championship Game seems likely, no? I mean, what else is there to say about Belichick at this point. He's the greatest football coach of all time. McVay is young, energetic, passionate and smart, but he's not Bill Belichick. That takes time. That takes Super Bowl titles. Maybe one day the kid will get there -- but until then, heavy lies Belichick's crown.

Saturday, October 27, 2018

NFL Week 8 Quick Picks: Giants Have Finally Fallen to Rock Bottom...and It's Time to Take Them

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After a busy couple months with my wedding and honeymoon, we're back in the swing of things here at John Frascella Sports. Don't forget to check out my NFL Team Power Rankings before diving in to my Week 8 picks against the spread. A quick season recap to this point:

Week 1: 9-7 (3-0 in best bets: Eagles, Dolphins and Redskins)

Week 2: 8-8 (0-3 in best bets: Steelers, Panthers and Broncos)

Week 3: 7-9 (2-1 in best bets: Redskins, Steelers and Chargers)

Week 4: 6-8-1 (3-0 in best bets: Patriots, Texans and Titans)

Weeks 5, 6 & 7: Wedding and honeymoon

Overall: 30-32-1 (8-4 in best bets) - you should probably go with my best bets instead of all my picks, haha. Okay, here we go...

Houston Texans over Miami Dolphins, 24-17 (Dolphins cover +7.5)

It's a revenge game for Brock Osweiler -- who has been surprisingly competent in the absence of Ryan Tannehill, who may actually be worse -- and Texans' HC Bill O'Brien has publicly admitted that Deshaun Watson is playing through a variety of injuries. Without Kenny Stills and Albert Wilson, I simply don't think the Dolphins are good enough to win this game outright, but they may squeeze out a cover if O'Brien leans on Lamar Miller to protect Watson. That will keep the clock running; Miami doesn't want to end up in a shootout.

Philadelphia Eagles over Jacksonville Jaguars, 24-16 (Eagles cover -3)

Both of these Final Four teams are shells of their former selves. Between Blake Bortles' porous play and Leonard Fournette's annoying injuries, Jacksonville's offense doesn't even exist at this point. They'll look for a boost from newly-acquired Carlos Hyde, but I don't think he's good enough to protect Bortles the way Fournette does when healthy. Doug Marrone knew he was walking a tightrope from the beginning with this group -- they have to play slow, drain the clock, limit turnovers and rely on defense and winning close games -- and that small window for success is only tightening now. The Eagles have a better chance to turn their ship around, and the line has already jumped from -2 to -3.5 on some sites.

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Pittsburgh Steelers over Cleveland Browns, 31-21 (Steelers cover -8)

The Hue Jackson Horror Show has to end eventually -- maybe this will be it. The Steelers' momentum hasn't started rolling yet, and this is a good place to start in a division statement game against hotshot rookie QB Baker Mayfield. The last meeting between these two teams ended in a 21-21 tie, and Mike Tomlin's boys were clearly embarrassed by the result. I expect Ben Roethlisberger, James Conner, Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster to pile up the offensive production in this one. The line has moved from -7.5 to as high as -9.5 on some sites.

Kansas City Chiefs over Denver Broncos, 35-27 (Broncos cover +10)

Oooooh, this is a tough one. The Broncos certainly seemed like they could hang with the high-powered Chiefs in their first meeting, but that was at Mile High Stadium. I can't really envision a scenario where the Broncos win outright at KC, but I think Denver is feeling a bit better about itself after an absolute drubbing of the lowly Cardinals. I see some line movement from -9.5 to as high as -11, but I don't trust Andy Reid's defense enough for KC to cover 10 points against a Denver offense led by solid producers in Emmanuel Sanders, Phillip Lindsay and Demaryius Thomas.

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Chicago Bears over New York Jets, 20-14 (Jets cover +7.5)

I have no faith in my Jets' offense against Khalil Mack, Danny Trevathan and the dangerous Chicago D, but 75% of the public is on the Bears and this line is just too high. If it was -3 moving to -3.5 I'd probably take the Bears, but at -7 moving to -7.5 I like the Jets to sneak in under the spread.

New York Giants over Washington Redskins, 24-21 (Giants cover +1) BEST BET

I've had a very good read on the 'Skins this season, including a couple of Best Bet victories with them on top. This week, it's 82% on the Redskins and everyone is dogging the Giants. The betting circumstances scream suckers, you gotta take the Redskins! which means I'm definitely going with the G-Men. I don't trust Pat Shurmur, Eli Manning or the depleted Giants' D, but sometimes you just have to make the right play. The Redskins are not a dominant division-leading team. Betting factors say ride with the Giants, here.

Detroit Lions over Seattle Seahawks, 28-24 (Lions cover -3)

This one could go either way, but it's 62% on the Seahawks at the moment. The public is feeling better about them now after a slow start, so it seems like a smarter play to lean Detroit at home. This particular spread will probably come down to the final two or three minutes of the game.

All right...I have to head out to my parents' 40th anniversary celebration!! Rest of the picks comin' in quick...

Cincinnati Bengals over Tampa Bay Bucs, 31-28 (Bucs cover +3.5)

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Baltimore Ravens over Carolina Panthers, 27-20 (Ravens cover -2.5) BEST BET - line moved from Panthers -1 to Ravens -2.5 and still only 44% on Baltimore.

Indianapolis Colts over Oakland Raiders 27-17 (Colts cover -3)

San Francisco 49ers over Arizona Cardinals 24-13 (49ers cover -2)

Los Angeles Rams over Green Bay Packers 35-31 (Packers cover +8.5)

New Orleans Saints over Minnesota Vikings, 31-24 (Saints cover -1) BEST BET

New England Patriots over Buffalo Bills, 38-3 (Patriots cover -14)

Good luck, everyone!

Thursday, October 25, 2018

NFL Week 8 Power Rankings: Do You Trust the Rams More than the Pats?

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Long time, no speak!

I'm back from my Honeymoon in Hawaii, and completely refreshed. Let's jump right into my Power Rankings...

PLEASE NOTE: I do NOT simply rank teams by current record. There would be no point in even doing this. I try to read between the lines and see where teams are headed as we move forward.

TIER 4: I Hope You Have Basketball or Hockey Teams to Watch

32. Oakland Raiders (1-5): Turmoil isn't even the word. Jon Gruden is cleaning house, but I wouldn't exactly say he's going about it the right way. Apparently he told his team Amari Cooper wouldn't be traded, and shortly after he was being yanked off the practice field. That doesn't inspire trust from your players. With Khalil Mack and Cooper gone, Derek Carr crying on the field and poor all-around personnel, these Raiders are currently the worst of the worst. 

31. Arizona Cardinals (1-6): I thought things would get better with Josh Rosen in place of Sam Bradford, but then I watched that Thursday Night Game against Denver. The Broncos aren't good, and yet the Cardinals made them look like a dominant, Super-Bowl caliber team. Rookie HC Steve Wilks and former OC Mike McCoy (fired this week) have done a horrendous job, and this club is going nowhere fast. 

30. Buffalo Bills (2-5): They looked a little more competent with rookie Josh Allen under center, but what can we really say about Derek Anderson and Nathan Peterman? Allen's elbow injury has him sidelined, and "Shady" McCoy picked up a head injury. This was already a piss-poor team, and now we're talking about two of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL, on top of a handful of key injuries. Every week I pick up the fantasy defense that is playing against Buffalo. 

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29. New York Giants (1-6): Anyone else getting the feeling that the Giants have absolutely no idea what they are doing? Last season Eli Manning bullied Bob McAdoo out of the logical decision to give Davis Webb a shot, and this season things are getting even worse. The Giants passed on Rosen, Allen and Sam Darnold for RB Saquon Barkley -- I'm sorry, this is not a running back-centric league -- because Eli convinced GM Dave Gettleman and HC Pat Shurmur that he had more left in the tank. He doesn't. That tank has been running on empty for quite a while. Now Gettleman traded CB Eli Apple, just as he was starting to come into his own. The Giants are a mess. There's no method to the madness. They'll need a new QB next year. 

28. San Francisco 49ers (1-6): The Jimmy Garoppolo and Jerick McKinnon injuries were season-killers, but Kyle Shanahan keeps this team respectable. They may not win many games with C.J. Beathard calling the signals, but they only lost by two to the Chargers (who are 5-2) and they hung around with the Chiefs and Vikings, as well. They come to play every week. They are the most competitive club in Tier 4. 

TIER 3: Mediocrity Reigns Supreme

27. Cleveland Browns (2-4-1): Baker Mayfield has given this lowly franchise a little spark, but they still have hapless Hue Jackson as their head coach, and now he's throwing OC Todd Haley under the bus. Talk about dysfunctional. Antonio Callaway has been a bust, and the Rashard Higgins injury certainly isn't helping Mayfield's development. The pair developed chemistry in the preseason, when Tyrod Taylor was running with the 1s. Good news for Cleveland is that Myles Garrett is panning out (7 sacks, 3 forced fumbles) and on the whole, Gregg Williams' D finds ways to create turnovers. There are some reasons for optimism, here. 

26. Indianapolis Colts (2-5): Depending on the format you are in, Andrew Luck is the 3rd, 4th or 5th-best fantasy quarterback this season. Not half bad, coming off a major injury and playing without T.Y. Hilton most of the time. I've never been the biggest Luck fan, but I can certainly appreciate his leadership, energy and competitiveness. He's getting a lot out of a little this season. Marlon Mack looks ready to bring stability to Indy's rushing attack, as well. 

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25. Denver Broncos (3-4): If only they could play the Cardinals every game. Emmanuel Sanders and Phillip Lindsay went bonkers against Arizona, while the Denver D picked up two pick-sixes (Todd Davis and Chris Harris). The Broncos have some respectable vets - Sanders, Demaryius Thomas, Harris and Von Miller -- but on the whole this is a run-of-the-mill team. I wouldn't count them out week to week, but the Chiefs and Chargers are clearly far superior clubs in the AFC West. 

24. Dallas Cowboys (3-4): Talk about a boring team. Most of the action comes from fans calling for Jason Garrett's head. We know who these guys are -- they wanna rush-protect, pound the rock with Ezekiel Elliott and play close, low-scoring games. It's the only way they can compete. They simply don't have the personnel. 

23. New York Jets (3-4): The Jets' skill players are droppin' like flies. Quincy Enunwa, Sam Darnold's favorite target, is injured; Terrelle Pryor got hurt and released, and now it appears that Bilal Powell's career is over. GM Mike Maccagnan responded with the signing of free agent Rishard Matthews, but I still don't think Darnold has enough weapons to win consistently in his rookie season. I'm thinking more like 2020.

22. Tennessee Titans (3-4): Boring.

21. Miami Dolphins (4-3): DeVante Parker's agent has been ripping HC Adam Gase to shreds in the media, but I still think Gase does a decent job with what he has. Was anyone really expecting these 'Phins to make a lot of noise this season? The fact is that Gase scrapped together four wins with a less-than-stellar personnel group.

20. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-4): Ah, how the mighty have fallen -- and yet, should we really be surprised? Doug Marrone's Jags were an easy regression candidate because of Blake Bortles, and the simple reality that they won a lot of close games last year. That's difficult to repeat; just ask the Panthers, who went 15-1 and then 4-12 the following year with essentially the same team. In addition, Jalen Ramsey did an awful lot of yappin' during the offseason, and that generally doesn't turn out well.

19. Houston Texans (4-3): HC Bill O'Brien has admitted that Deshaun Watson is playing hurt, but somehow these Texans have strung together four consecutive victories. J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney have led the way with inspiring defensive play. Regardless of the extent of Watson's injuries, you can never sleep on DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller through the air.

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18. Tampa Bay Bucs (3-3): They can't stop a high school team defensively, but ya know what? This is an offense-driven league, particularly this season, and Dirk Koetter's squad has talent with Jameis Winston, Mike Evans, DeSean Jackson and Chris Godwin. Winston has been better than expected since returning, so for this team to win going forward, they'll just need to have the ball last. They ain't makin' any stops.

17. Chicago Bears (3-3): I really, really like rookie HC Matt Nagy, but I think the early-season Hype Train got a little too hot, here. These young Bears are in an experienced division with Aaron Rodgers, Matt Stafford and a Vikings team that reached the NFC Championship Game last season, so I don't think it's quite their time, yet. I'm thinking 7-9 for Chicago, as the Packers and Vikings duke it out for the division title.

16. Detroit Lions (3-3): Rookie HC Matt Patricia's tenure got off to a rocky start with a shellacking at the hands of my Jets (on national TV, no less), but he has since righted the ship. These Lions are who we think they are -- they will end up around 8-8 -- but at least they have strong receiving talent with Kenny Golladay, Golden Tate and Marvin Jones. Stafford makes you competitive, generally speaking.

15. Philadelphia Eagles (3-4): Maybe I'm being a little too generous here, but I love these guys because they shocked smug Bill Belichick, Tom Brady and the annoying Pats in the Super Bowl, with a back-up QB at the helm, no less. Look, let's be real, the Eagles aren't the team they were last year. Carson Wentz still needs a lot of time to get right physically, and RB1 Jay Ajayi is out for the season. They blew a three-score lead this weekend against the Panthers. Doug Pederson's saving grace is that the Redskins are not a scary division leader.

14. Cincinnati Bengals (4-3): Kind of like the Lions, in that we know who they are. They aren't going anywhere in the long run, but at least they have a nice offensive foursome of Andy Dalton, Joe Mixon, A.J. Green and Tyler Boyd. The Tyler Eifert injury was a killer, though.

13. Washington Redskins (4-2): These 'Skins are mimicking last year's Jags in some ways -- they're winning the close ones against mediocre teams with some underwhelming offensive outputs, while losing to clearly superior squads. The way the NFC East looks right now, you can win the division with that pattern. Jay Gruden's boys don't do anything special, but they have a shot to squeak this division out.

12. Baltimore Ravens (4-3): John Brown (and the drafting of Lamar Jackson) has lit a fire under Joe Flacco, but these are mostly the same ol' Ravens. They aren't that dissimilar from the Lions and Bengals, in that we know what to expect from year to year. I think Baltimore is a bit better offensively with Brown, Michael Crabtree and Willie Snead, but I don't see a postseason threat here. I like John Harbaugh and their experience in tight games, though.

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11. Seattle Seahawks (3-3): Things were looking awfully shaky early, but Pete Carroll and Russell Wilson have steadied the boat since. These aren't the "Legion of Boom" dominant Seahawks, but when you're toiling in mediocrity, sometimes all ya need is a strong coach-QB combo. Seattle has that, and Doug Baldwin's presence in the passing game is a boost.

TIER 2: Six Quality QBs with Incomplete Teams

10. Atlanta Falcons (3-4): Obviously they have the worst record in my top 10, but the key is that the high-powered Atlanta offense is back this season. Matt Ryan has returned to elite form, spreading the ball around to Julio Jones, stud rookie Calvin Ridley and a handful of others. Kyle Shanahan was clearly missed last year, but the Falcons have made critical offensive adjustments in their second season without him calling the plays. Sure they have a losing record at the moment, but I expect the Falcons to reach the postseason for the third consecutive year. They'll outscore teams the rest of the way out. 

9. Carolina Panthers (4-2): I don't consider them a Super Bowl threat, but ya gotta like the toughness in leadership with Ron Rivera and Cam Newton. These Panthers don't quit, and they'll grind until the final whistle blows. 

8. Minnesota Vikings (4-2-1): In a vacuum, we all think Kirk Cousins is a better quarterback than Case Keenum, but something just doesn't feel right about this year's Vikings. Sure, they should have another in the win column -- since-released kicker Dan Carlson imploded against the Packers -- but things aren't really flowing on either side of the ball. We all remember the shocking loss to the Bills, and I wouldn't say Minnesota was very convincing against the young Jets this past weekend. Mike Zimmer's team is clearly talented, but his personnel needs to mesh better as the season progresses. 

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7. Green Bay Packers (3-2-1): If you wanna say Aaron Rodgers isn't 100 percent, go ahead -- that's probably (definitely) true. But he's still Superman. Two jaw-dropping comebacks already this season. We saw how awful Green Bay was without him last year, and his presence alone this season makes them a top-10 team. Like the Bucs and Falcons before them on this list, the Packers don't exactly play a lot of defense. They'll have to finish games with the ball in their hands. Or better yet, in Rodgers' right hand. 

6. Pittsburgh Steelers (3-2-1): All I hear about in the media is Le'Veon Bell, Le'Veon Bell, Le'Veon Bell...and yet James Conner has been one of the elite running backs in the NFL this season. We know we can trust Mike Tomlin, Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown to get it done down the stretch -- they have the "proven" factor. With many teams in the 3-3, 4-2 range, I'm always leaning in favor of experience and reliable winners. 

5. Los Angeles Chargers (5-2): They are doing what the Saints did last year. After three consecutive 7-9 seasons, the Saints' high-powered offense finally broke through for a convincing winning season in '17. Philip Rivers' Chargers have been floating aimlessly in mediocrity the past handful of years, and things are finally working out this season. We know the have the explosive talent in Melvin Gordon, Keenan Allen and more; the difference now is that the close games are resulting in victories. 

TIER 1: Super Bowl Contenders

4. New Orleans Saints (5-1): Is Drew Brees the best role model in all of sports? So happy for this guy and his family. His diminutive stature has caused scouts to doubt his ability throughout his football career, and yet here he is, at the top of the all-time heap. Sean Payton and Brees bring that coach-QB stability; the same we've seen from Belichick and Brady, Tomlin and Roethlisberger, Carroll and Wilson, and now Sean McVay and Jared Goff, as well as Andy Reid and Pat Mahomes. Noticing a trend?

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3. Kansas City Chiefs (6-1): I mean, how can you NOT love Mahomes? That switch-to-lefty throw mimicked Michael Jordan's pure athletic magic. I hope Mahomes sustains this over time, because we saw Deshaun Watson get off to a similar start to his career last year, and injuries have already gotten in the way of his development. Tyreek Hill is easily one of the best football players in the world. Kareem Hunt is an excellent back. It's definitely looking like a Chiefs-Pats AFC Championship Game, at this point. 

2. New England Patriots (5-2): Slow start, but they took down the Chiefs on a big stage. It's really simple with this team...if they are down 2 late, don't you think they are going to go down and win it with a field goal? If they are down 6 late, don't you expect a touchdown and extra point to win it? We expect these things because Brady and Belichick have delivered, time and time again. I can't put Reid and Mahomes ahead of them, yet. 

1. Los Angeles Rams (7-0): This is out of respect for being undefeated. Same thing I said about Mahomes...how can you NOT love McVay? A young, hungry, energetic, dedicated genius. The Rams have been technically flawless, thanks to McVay's preparation and positive leadership. I'm not sure I'd take them to beat the Pats in the Super Bowl, but they haven't lost a game yet. They've earned this No. 1 spot...for now.