Photo Credit: Rome Sentinel
To me, this was one of the more bizarre offseasons in NFL history. The Kansas City Chiefs are a legitimate Super Bowl contender, and they part ways with one of their best and most impactful players in Tyreek "Cheetah" Hill? And the Green Bay Packers do the exact same with megastar Davante Adams?
The landscape of the elite has now changed. Let's jump right on in to my predictions for this upcoming football season. Today we'll start with the AFC...
AMERICAN FOOTBALL CONFERENCE
AFC EAST
4. New York Jets
2021 Record: 4-13
2022 Over/Under via DK Sportsbook: 5.5
Frascella's 2022 Prediction: 5-12
Quick Take: GM Joe Douglas has done a nice job compiling talent at various positions, but the Jets can't make any serious noise with Zach Wilson, Joe Flacco and/or Mike White at quarterback throughout - what should be - a long season for Gang Green.
3. New England Patriots
2021 Record: 10-7
2022 Over/Under via DK Sportsbook: 8.5
Frascella's 2022 Prediction: 6-11
Quick Take: The Bill Belichick "Magic" has completely worn off. This offense will be atrocious without former OC Josh McDaniels.
2. Miami Dolphins
2021 Record: 9-8
2022 Over/Under via DK Sportsbook: 9
Frascella's 2022 Prediction: 8-9
Quick Take: Mike McDaniel is a rookie head coach and the Hype Train is chuggin' just a little too fast on this particular team.
1. Buffalo Bills
2021 Record: 11-6
2022 Over/Under via DK Sportsbook: 11.5
Frascella's 2022 Prediction: 13-4
Quick Take: I look at things in totality. When the Chiefs lose Tyreek Hill, the Patriots lose Josh McDaniels and the Titans lose A.J. Brown, a "perfect storm" starts gathering for the Buffalo Bills. The overall landscape of the AFC is falling in their favor. The AFC West teams will beat each other up to Buffalo's advantage across conference.
AFC NORTH
4. Cleveland Browns
2021 Record: 8-9
2022 Over/Under via DK Sportsbook: 8.5
Frascella's 2022 Prediction: 6-11
Quick Take: Jacoby Brissett is a fine backup quarterback in the NFL, but he'll be starting too many games for the Browns to crack that 8.5 threshold.
3. Pittsburgh Steelers
2021 Record: 9-7-1
2022 Over/Under via DK Sportsbook: 7.5
Frascella's 2022 Prediction: 6-11
Quick Take: I initially had this team down for an 8-9 record, but the recent Najee Harris and Diontae Johnson injuries have scared the heck out of me. I'm dropping them down to 6-11 for precautionary reasons.
2. Baltimore Ravens
2021 Record: 8-9
2022 Over/Under via DK Sportsbook: 9.5
Frascella's 2022 Prediction: 10-7
Quick Take: Everyone is heavy on the Lamar Jackson/Ravens bounce back trail, but I'm a bit more tempered in my assessment. The messy situations in Cleveland and Pittsburgh help me push the Ravens from 9 to 10 wins in this iteration.
1. Cincinnati Bengals
2021 Record: 10-7
2022 Over/Under via DK Sportsbook: 9.5
Frascella's 2022 Prediction: 10-7
Quick Take: The Joe Burrow emergency appendectomy is what keeps me from giving Cincy 11 wins. What if he takes a few big hits? I'm just a little worried about his physical sustainability this season.
AFC SOUTH
4. Houston Texans
2021 Record: 4-13
2022 Over/Under via DK Sportsbook: 4.5
Frascella's 2022 Prediction: 5-12
Quick Take: I actually don't mind what the Texans have in Davis Mills/Dameon Pierce/Brandin Cooks and Nico Collins, but this team ranked 27th in defense last year and I don't see things getting much better.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars
2021 Record: 3-14
2022 Over/Under via DK Sportsbook: 6.5
Frascella's 2022 Prediction: 5-12
Quick Take: Doug Pederson will step in here and settle things down a bit for Jacksonville, but it won't all come together in year 1. By next season I could possibly see them winning 8 games.
2. Tennessee Titans
2021 Record: 12-5
2022 Over/Under via DK Sportsbook: 9
Frascella's 2022 Prediction: 9-8
Quick Take: My first "push" of the season. I respect Mike Vrabel, Derrick Henry and Ryan Tannehill, but the A.J. Brown loss is a killer. We know Indy has possibly improved in every single aspect of the game, so I gotta drop Tennessee down a few victories.
1. Indianapolis Colts
2021 Record: 9-8
2022 Over/Under via DK Sportsbook: 10
Frascella's 2022 Prediction: 10-7
Quick Take: Two pushes in a row. What can I say? The linesmakers laid these ones down right. I'm not as high on Matt Ryan as everyone else seems to be this season, but I do know he'll make less unforced errors than Carson Wentz. Jonathan Taylor and Darius "Shaquille" Leonard are tonesetters on opposite sides of the ball.
AFC WEST
4. Denver Broncos
2021 Record: 7-10
2022 Over/Under via DK Sportsbook: 10
Frascella's 2022 Prediction: 9-8
Quick Take: Russell Wilson to the Broncos makes for a great story, but I don't think he can compete with Pat Mahomes and Justin Herbert at the very tip-top of this division. Denver will improve, but not enough.
3. Las Vegas Raiders
2021 Record: 10-7
2022 Over/Under via DK Sportsbook: 8.5
Frascella's 2022 Prediction: 10-7
Quick Take: Wow! That's a steep drop from the Sportsbook, there. The Raiders add Davante Adams, Chandler Jones and Josh McDaniels and drop 1.5 wins? I just don't see it. I still like this team a lot. Crowded division keeps me from giving them 11 victories.
2. Los Angeles Chargers
2021 Record: 9-8
2022 Over/Under via DK Sportsbook: 10
Frascella's 2022 Prediction: 10-7
Quick Take: I feel like the Chargers, Ravens and Colts are the "hype" teams in the AFC at large. I'm not dramatically buying into any of them, honestly. Herbert is absolutely one of the best players in the world and this team is very talented on both sides of the ball, but the Chargers are like the Clippers - nothing ever truly works out for this franchise.
1. Kansas City Chiefs
2021 Record: 12-5
2022 Over/Under via DK Sportsbook: 10.5
Frascella's 2022 Prediction: 11-6
Quick Take: I know Tyreek is a huge loss, but 10.5 is just a tad too low. Mahomes, Reid and Bienemy know how to win close games in the regular season, when it really comes down to it.
JOHN FRASCELLA'S AFC POWER RANKINGS
1. Buffalo Bills: 13-4
2. Kansas City Chiefs: 11-6
3. Cincinnati Bengals: 10-7
4. Los Angeles Chargers: 10-7
5. Las Vegas Raiders: 10-7
6. Baltimore Ravens: 10-7
7. Indianapolis Colts: 10-7
8. Tennessee Titans: 9-8
9. Denver Broncos: 9-8
10. Miami Dolphins: 8-9
11. Pittsburgh Steelers: 6-11
12. New England Patriots: 6-11
13. Cleveland Browns: 6-11
14. New York Jets: 5-12
15. Jacksonville Jaguars: 5-12
16. Houston Texans: 5-12
John Frascella is a published sports author who has been a Fantasy Football Analyst for 24 years. Follow him @LegendSports7 on Twitter for all things football.
