In terms of headlines and
storylines, this was one of the wildest quarterback offseasons in the history
of the NFL.
Tom Brady retires; then
unretires. “Big Ben” actually does retire. Russell Wilson goes to Denver.
Deshaun Watson to Cleveland. “Matty Ice” to Indy. Carson Wentz to Washington.
Quarterback controversy in San Francisco, never-ending drama surrounding Baker
Mayfield and… Mitch Trubisky and Drew Lock as starting QBs??
In my
last go around with this list, it was a bit too early
to see the diverging trajectories of guys like Matt Stafford, Joe Burrow (up,
up and away), Sam Darnold and Teddy Bridgewater (down into the abyss). Now, we
have all the updated information we need as we head into another set of
rankings and the highly anticipated 2022 NFL Draft.
50. Desmond Ridder,
Rookie: He gets a “spec” spot here, as we simply don’t know who the third
QB in this draft class will be. This
analyst actually does have Ridder as the No. 3. I’ve seen
some others make pretty compelling arguments, as well. I’d rather give an
unknown like Ridder a spot on my list than a “know what you’re gonna get” vet
like say, Colt McCoy, Tim Boyle, Matt Barkley, Joe Flacco or C.J. Beathard
(among many others).
49. P.J. Walker,
Carolina: I think we all know Carolina has to take a quarterback early in
this draft, but what if that QB simply isn’t ready to start in year 1? That
potentially opens the door to a playing time battle between P.J. and No. 40 on
my list. I’m actually surprised Carolina hasn’t given P.J. more opportunities,
given how bad the guy at No. 40 is.
48. Mason Rudolph,
Pittsburgh: Big Ben retires, and now we have Mitch Trubisky as Pittsburgh’s
starting QB? This creates the same situation as Carolina, really. Pittsburgh is
clearly on the market for a QB in this draft, but in the meantime Rudolph could
battle Trubisky for PT. P.J. Walker and Rudolph aren’t great, but they have
potentially easier pathways to playing time in comparison to guys sitting just
outside my top 50.
47. Carson Strong,
Rookie: Names really make a difference, I’m tellin’ ya. One example I
always give is, “If M. Night Shyamalan’s name was Elmer Clutterbuck, would he
be such a famous Director?” I always felt Andrew Luck benefitted from a good,
strong name too. A name is marketing. Sometimes you gotta “sound” the part. Carson
Strong benefits in this department. He might be the sixth-best QB in this
class, but I have him being selected as the fourth. He’s more of a name brand
than some of the others.
46. Tyrod Taylor, New
York: Didn’t agree with New York, here – I think they should have gone for
a stronger backup QB – but when you play behind “Danny Dimes” you have a
potential path to playing time. Tyrod had a good game or two in Houston, and
Daniel Jones could always slip up. New York should be looking at quarterbacks
in the draft, too.
45. Matt Corral,
Rookie: He looks like the No. 3 rookie, to me. You hear the buzzwords and
phrases like “upside,” “quick release,” “intriguing” and “untapped potential”. Former
NYJ GM Mike Tannenbaum has Corral going No. 32 overall
to Detroit, which does seem to make some logical sense.
44. Mike White, New
York: Hey, come on… this guy got
into the Hall of Fame after just one start! In all
seriousness, I might personally think he’s better than the kid I’m ultimately
ranking at No. 41. Based on the information and tape we have thus far, it’s
really splitting hairs. But the reality is, it’ll take an injury to the guy at
No. 41 for White to get any PT at all in (at least) the first half of this
upcoming season. Among my fellow NYJ fans, we were wondering if Seattle should
have been more interested in a kid like White than the QB I’m eventually
ranking at No. 38.
43 and 42. Malik
Willis & Kenny Pickett, Rookies: Detroit (No. 2 overall or No. 32)? NYG
(No. 5 or No. 7)? Carolina (No. 6)? Atlanta (No. 8)? Seattle (No. 9)?
Pittsburgh (No. 20)? And which rookie goes first in this class, Willis or
Pickett?
Each team directly
impacts the others. Which leaks to the press have legs? Which positional needs
trump the others? Which team reacts if Willis and/or Pickett fall further than
anticipated? So many questions, zero real answers at this particular point in time.
In terms of the two QBs
as individuals, I have Pickett as the steadier guy, and Willis as the upside
play. We know Carolina needs a QB. Then we have Pittsburgh, Seattle and
Atlanta, in no particular order. You put either Willis or Pickett in Seattle
with Tyler Lockett, DK Metcalf and Noah Fant and you start thinking, hmm,
this kid might work his way into the top 35 real quick. And as such, it’s
all about the landing spots. I think we all know that Willis and Pickett are
neck and neck right now. In the future, it’ll be all about their pro coaching,
development and surrounding personnel.
41. Zach Wilson, New
York: As I’ve written quite recently, I
think Wilson was basically the worst player in the league last year.
Look at the stats, or use The Eye Test – it doesn’t really matter. He was just
bad and overmatched. But… NYJ fans will be quick to tell ya that he didn’t turn
the ball over at all down the stretch of the season. Some mechanical things
seemed to have been cleaned up. Obviously, to some extent, we have to be
patient with a kid who is still just 22 years old. I gotta see it before I
believe it though, ya know?
40. Sam Darnold,
Carolina: Come on… you weren’t fooled when Carolina was 3-0 last year, were
you? Sam Darnold is who he is. In the grand scheme of things, he’s simply a
backup quarterback in this league. Too good to be a third stringer, too
inconsistent and mentally weak to be a starter. A dime a dozen, essentially.
39. Kyle Allen,
Houston: Sleeper alert, here? Couple seasons ago, Allen was looking pretty
safe as Washington’s starting QB (Ron Rivera has always taken a liking to him).
Then of course, the gruesome season-ending ankle injury. Rehab ensues, some
time off the radar altogether, now Allen pops up in a spot behind the kid at
No. 27 on my list. What if things go south for the latter? In terms of skillset
and execution, to me, Allen’s better than both P.J. Walker and Mason Rudolph;
so, those two may have even easier paths to short-term playing time, but
Allen’s overall ability gives him the higher ranking on my list for now.
38. Drew Lock, Seattle:
Yuck. Bodes well for Metcalf, at least, as Lock can only connect on streak
patterns down the right sideline. There’s simply no intermediate game for Lock.
He doesn’t make reads or decisions quickly enough. The ball comes out late, and
he’s far from accurate. Seattle should be hoping for Willis and/or Pickett to
fall. Would be far too early for Corral, Strong or Ridder.
37. Teddy Bridgewater,
Miami: For a while, everyone would just say, well, he’s not gonna kill
ya. And like, how far does that really get us? He’s a solid backup. That’s
about it. If he’s your starting QB, you aren’t going anywhere unless you have
the No. 1 overall defense in the league.
36. Marcus Mariota,
Atlanta: Gonna be awfully tough without Calvin Ridley. Rebuilding year for
Atlanta; Mariota is basically set up to fail, here. Decent quarterback, good
kid, very difficult situation from a personnel standpoint.
35. Justin Fields,
Chicago: I mean, it was almost as ugly as Zach Wilson on the whole, but we
saw glimpses of what Fields could potentially accomplish. And look, when we are
splitting hairs between middling quarterbacks, the dynamic rushing element
always helps. Josh Allen was still somewhat effective before he ever became an
accurate thrower at the pro level. Jalen Hurts helped turn Philly into a
surprise team with his legs. Lamar Jackson still holds onto the ball too
long, but he can always keep you in games with his overall athleticism. So if
we have to compare Fields to Darnold/Wilson/Lock etc. at this point in time,
we’ll take the more consistent rushing potential as the short-term deciding
factor.
34. Jared Goff,
Detroit: I’ve always been a modest defender of Goff, but last season was
just ugly. Now we all really see the power that Sean McVay has. Goff had some
good rallies, as always – sometimes, when behind, he just starts connecting on
every single throw – but he had uncharacteristically long stretches of particularly
putrid play. Detroit was competitive but losing early on, but then they
couldn’t be competitive at all when Goff was missing wide open receivers by
five or six yards. Maybe it was the system, maybe it was the personnel… maybe
Goff is just getting progressively worse as a quarterback at this level.
33. Andy Dalton, New
Orleans: As the backup to No. 26 on my list, the door is always slightly
ajar. Dalton, as we know, just knows the ropes at this point in his lengthy
career. As I’ve written in the past, he does – at the very least – get rid of
the rock quickly. That comes from two things: (1) Great understanding of
opposing defensive schemes and (2) Fear of getting crushed by explosive
defenders at his advanced age. I’m pretty sure Dalton will get snaps during the
2022 season. Not impossible to outplay the other guy.
32. Tyler Huntley,
Baltimore: I’m not the only one who was impressed by this kid, right? With
Lamar going down at a critical juncture in the season, Huntley stepped right in
and the Baltimore offense remained competitive. Sometimes, he seemed to be
making clearer and quicker decisions than Jackson. I started wondering if other
teams – desperate for better QB play – might start viewing Huntley as a backend
starting QB in this league. Well, as you can see, I am doing just the same. As
No. 32 on my list, with 32 overall teams, I actually do view Huntley as a
starter right now.
31. Case Keenum,
Buffalo: Arguably the toughest guy to rank on the first half of this list.
In an initial iteration, I had him as high as No. 22 overall. I mean, he took
Minnesota to the final four, right? He seemed to be as good or better than
Baker Mayfield in Cleveland last season, right? Case Keenum is just one of
those guys you wanna root for. An underdog. No team ever seems to fully commit
to him, and now he’s firmly in strict backup territory as the guy watching Josh
Allen do his thing. With a better opportunity, I think he really could be No.
22. But, in the spot he's in, it’s injury replacement or absolutely nothing at
all. Potentially off the radar, altogether.
(P.S. I like what Buffalo
has been doing, here. Last season Mitch Trubisky, this season Keenum. This is
an organization that doesn’t want to fold up the tent on its season if
something happens to its starting quarterback. I like and respect that manner
of organizational thinking.)
30. Daniel Jones, New
York: I’m sorry, but… enough already. It’s like Rachel McAdams in Mean
Girls, “Stop trying to make fetch happen! It’s not going to happen!”
It’s not gonna happen
with Danny Dimes. He’s in “The Group” (see
here.)
When you fall into “The Group” (my own personal designation), that means you
aren’t moving the needle for any NFL team. You are like, in essence, a
frontline backup. Any team tying their destiny to you needs a top-five defense,
like I said about Bridgewater. All quarterbacks in “The Group” show you
flashes. Sometimes you think, maybe this guy really can get the job done.
Other times, we think how is this guy even in the pros? And that’s
really the whole thing… to be a real starting QB at the top level, there has to
be a serious measure of high-quality consistency and repeatability. Daniel
Jones doesn’t project to have that long term.
29. Gardner Minshew,
Philadelphia: Not all that dissimilar from Keenum. Very similar situation,
all around, with the one difference being that Hurts is far easier to unseat
than Allen. Minshew has the moxie and the moustache, as we know. He doesn’t
back down. He’s not afraid. He believes in his ability and goes out there and
leaves it all on the field. But long term, the best evaluators worry about his
arm strength, particularly in reference to window throws. The worry is
warranted. Right now, I do think Minshew is a borderline starter in this
league, but long term he's simply in “The
Group” with Danny Dimes and many others of the like. There’s
a ceiling on what this kid can do, and what he can ultimately accomplish.
28. Trey Lance, San
Francisco: If Desmond Ridder was “on spec” at No. 50, this is a different
version of the same thing. We haven’t seen much of Lance at the pro level, just
yet. But think about what we know… San Fran drafted him high in the first
place. San Fran easily has some of the best coaches, evaluators and execs in
the league. San Fran has Jimmy G, who has gone to a Super Bowl and had another
decent playoff run. Yet, the ground is always very shaky beneath Jimmy G’s
feet.
San Fran seems to know
what it has in Lance. Between the two, he seems to be the guy who gives you the
chance to achieve more in the long run. Just a moment ago I wrote that Minshew
“has a ceiling” on what he can accomplish. Well, Jimmy G is a better version of
the same thing. San Fran doesn’t seem to truly believe they can win it all with
him, and I can’t say I disagree. The dynamic overall nature of Lance’s game is
what intrigues you. San Fran needs to see what it has, too.
27. Davis Mills,
Houston: Caught my eye, right quick. Looks the part – 6’4”, 225 lbs, stands
tall in the pocket, great athletic posture – and he’s not scared. Maybe that’s
what happens when you are the forgotten QB in your draft class. Nothin’ to
lose, right? Well, I honestly think Houston thinks they have something, here. I
can’t say I disagree, given Mills’ mechanics and arm strength.
301 yards, 3 TDs, 0 picks
vs. Tennessee. 254 yards, 2 TDs, 0 picks vs. LAC. 312 yards, 3 TDs, 0 picks vs.
New England. Sure, Mills’ better games came at home, but the road development
always tends to come down the line. I just like the efficiency in what we see,
here. Couple of good defensive units there in Tennessee and New England, too. I
just hope Mills gets the truly professional coaching he needs. I wonder about
the complexity and creativity of the X’s and O’s in Houston.
26. Jameis Winston,
New Orleans: Not really much to say, here. New Orleans simply isn’t the
same without Drew Brees. Now you have a head coaching downgrade from Sean
Payton to Dennis Allen. Jameis is also coming off a major injury. How much can
we truly expect, here? This is a middle-of-the-road ranking for a backend
starting QB, at best.
Be sure to tune in next
time for my top 25!
John Frascella is a
published sports author and Senior Writer for Aaron Torres Online. Follow him
on Twitter @LegendSports7 for original sports content.
