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Nevertheless, I am 1-0 (picked against Landry Jones in Week 1 before he was ruled out) in my guidance of others when it comes to selecting XFL games ATS. Let's see if we can keep the magic going in Week 2...
DC Defenders over the New York Guardians, 28-17 (take DC -7 or -6.5)
This analysis isn't going to be overly scientific - a lot of weight has to be placed upon the offensive performance of teams in Week 1. These guys didn't have much time to prepare and get fully acclimated, so if you dropped 31 points like the Defenders in their opener, you probably have some good coaching and somewhat advanced continuity relative to other teams. Pep Hamilton is the Defenders' head coach - I've never even heard of him, but it seems like he did a good job prepping for Week 1.
I could be wrong, but if my memory serves, the Guardians scored some sort of defensive touchdown in Week 1 - or, most of their success was on defense...something like that. Anyway, I'll take offense over defense in the early going of this incredible XFL season. That means we're going with QB Cardale Jones, WR Eli Rogers and the rest of the Defenders.
Yes, "incredible" was facetiousness.
Seattle Dragons over the Tampa Bay Vipers, 27-13 (take Seattle +3 or underdog moneyline)
The Vipers only scored 3 points in Week 1. Can they really turn it around that quickly? Aaron Murray had two picks and no touchdowns in the opener, so he's probably just washed up. Marc Trestman is their head coach - I think he was warmly regarded with the Bears at some point - so maybe he can coach these guys up a bit, but probably not this quickly.
Brandon Silvers, on the other hand, got to toss the rock around 40 times in Week 1 (tied with Kanoff for the most attempts), and he did okay with three touchdowns and two picks. At least he was able to get the ball into the endzone. His volume was likely a result of the Dragons being behind on the scoreboard; nonetheless, he definitely looked better than Murray. Seattle looks like a good value as a moneyline dog. I think they are +115 or +120. Check it out.
Dallas Renegades over the Los Angeles Wildcats, 17-14 (take LA +4 to cover by 1)
Neither team could score in Week 1. It's telling that the Renegades are -4 despite only scoring 9 points in their opener - that means they will probably win straight up (so I guess you could argue for a moneyline play on that?).
The Wildcats scored 17, but they were playing from behind like the Dragons. This one could go either way so you might as well take the points if you're going to play ATS.
Houston Roughnecks over the St. Louis Battlehawks, 31-20 (take Houston -9)
June Jones for Coach of the Year!
The Roughnecks looked good in Week 1 - not that I'd really know, because I didn't actually watch the game - so you gotta put a feeler out to see if they are just a step ahead of the field, right? I mean, they scored 37 points. That seems like a lot when you consider how horribly most of the teams played.
That means we're putting our faith in gunslinger P.J. Walker, who could be P.J. Tucker from the Houston Rockets and I wouldn't know the difference. Definitely couldn't pick the former out of a police lineup. Never even heard of the guy. But let's ride with him!
I'm sort of having second thoughts if you consider the intricacies of all the lines...why is Dallas favored over Los Angeles if the Renegades only scored 9 points? That means the linesmakers think St. Louis is better than it performed in Week 1 (they only scored 15 points, but beat the Renegades). That means, maybe the right play is taking STL +9, but I'm not gonna flip-flop at this point. Stickin' with my initial instincts, which were entirely based upon offense.
XFL, baby - this is what life is all about!
