Happy New Year, baseball fans! Our Fro Zone family wishes you and yours all the best, in what will hopefully be a very happy and prosperous new year for all.
Before I get into a pair of mega moves, we would like to thank the guys and gals at MLB Trade Rumors for featuring The Fro Zone on their "Baseball Blogs" segment in recent weeks. In addition, a special thanks goes out to the readers who took the time to comment on our pieces on MLB Trade Rumors, as well as our Fro Zone message boards. We've been working extremely hard on our offseason series, which includes these pieces to date:
1. Top 50 Free Agents
2. Did the Braves Overpay for Donaldson?
3. 10 Free Agents to Avoid
4. 10 Free Agent Sleepers
5. Should the Mets Trade Syndergaard?
6. Grading Free Agent Signings, Part I
7. Grading Free Agent Signings, Part II
As you can see, we haven't engaged in much trade discussion, so let's get down to business...
Reds acquire Yasiel Puig, Matt Kemp and Alex Wood from the Dodgers for Homer Bailey, Jeter Downs and Josiah Gray.
Reds Grade: A-
Dodgers Grade: B- (really depends on the rest of their offseason)
Going nowhere fast in recent years, this trade was a no-brainer for Reds GM Nick Krall. Cincinnati has won less than 70 games for four consecutive seasons, so it certainly appears to be time to shake things up.
Puig is still just 28 years old, and while he comes with baggage -- poor plate discipline, bizarre behavior and questionable effort -- he's a naturally-gifted ballplayer who should spark Cincy's dormant fans. Great American Ball Park is a banbox, so I'm sure Puig will put together some hot streaks throughout a typically up-and-down campaign. Puig's career-high in homers is 28, and I expect him to approach that number again in 2019. If everything breaks right, this could be the year he cracks 30.
Manager David Bell should just pencil Puig into the everyday lineup and leave him alone; past skippers Dave Roberts and Don Mattingly have benched him at different times for different reasons (usually disciplinary), but the Reds' organization would be best served by giving Puig the freedom to make mistakes. He needs to feel welcomed, valued and supported for him to approach the apex of his full potential. Obviously, the Reds have nothing to lose here.
Kemp is a steady vet and professional hitter. We know what to expect from him. He improves Cincy in the short-term, but isn't expected to be a part of the organization's long-term plan.
Wood steps in and -- in my eyes -- immediately becomes Cincinnati's ace. Youngster Luis Castillo (still just 26) has electric stuff and is coming off a strong second half, but lacks Wood's stability and polish. Castillo will certainly become The Guy down the line; but for now, Wood is a solid left-hander who knows exactly how he wants to attack opposing hitters.
For Los Angeles, apparently it saved $7 million in cash and $16 million in payroll. Is that enough to justify dumping three solid players at once?
Bailey's a goner, which leaves Downs and Gray. In November, one dedicated site ranked Downs as the No. 9 prospect in the Reds' system. He's an athletic all-around player with smooth defensive skills, but his .257 BA in A-ball is just a tad bit concerning. He was also gunned down stealing 10 times, which is abnormally high at that level of play.
On the optimistic end, Downs looks like a player whose best-case scenario at high levels of play is .260 with 18-22 HRs, 30-35 SBs and an OBP hovering around .350. He clearly has justifiable potential, and of course at age 20, the jury's still out no matter what. Overall, seems like a good get for the Dodgers.
As for Gray, the same site ranked him as the Reds' No. 12 prospect. He's a converted shortstop who is still developing on the hill, but his four-seam fastball sits in the low-to-mid 90s. To me, he doesn't appear to be a knockout prospect, and the Reds' quick abandonment speaks volumes. He's probably years and years away from having a shot at the bigs. The Dodgers' baseball men will work to polish his skills over time.
Cardinals acquire Paul Goldschmidt for Luke Weaver, Carson Kelly, Andrew Young, and a 2019 competitive balance round B draft pick.
Cardinals Grade: A-
Diamondbacks Grade: C-
Seems like clubs are getting antsy in the National League Central, right?
The Reds are clearly tired of bringing up the rear, and the Cardinals certainly didn't like finishing 7.5 games out of first and missing the postseason altogether. The Cubs have been the consistent stalwart in recent years, while the Brewers have emerged as a serious force to be reckoned with. Right now, in this division, those who hesitate are lost.
With no interest in such complacency, President of Baseball Operations John Mozeliak pulled the trigger on this blockbuster deal. The risk here is obvious: Goldschmidt only has one year remaining on his deal. Either Mozeliak can make rigorous efforts to extend him now; or he can gamble on a solid roster and baseball-savvy fan base. The Cardinals fans are awesome. Busch Stadium can be an exciting place to play when the gettin' is good.
Goldschmidt is joined in St. Louis' lineup by veteran producers Matt Carpenter (9th in MVP voting), Marcell Ozuna and Yadier Molina, as well as upside youngsters like Paul DeJong and Harrison Bader. The Cardinals have had rumored interest in Bryce Harper, too. Things could get real interesting in the next month or so.
For now, all we know is that Goldschmidt is a superstar in a possible one-and-done scenario.
For Arizona, well, it appears a rebuild is taking shape. Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe says Robbie Ray could be the next one to go. In the mean time, I don't think Weaver should be part of the D'Backs' long-term solution. Despite being drafted in the first round of the 2014 draft, he has a 4.79 career ERA in the bigs, with an alarming 1.45 WHIP and a fastball that gets tattooed when he misses his spots. Weaver doesn't pass the eye test for me.
It also seems like the Cardinals are selling high on Kelly's early hype. A fine defensive catcher, within the past year, Kelly was ranked as high as the No. 2 prospect at his position. The problem is his dwindling offensive upside. Kelly has minor league stats dating back to 2012 -- when he was just seventeen years old -- so it was easy to be optimistic about him, then. The old cliches were easy to throw around -- he just needs to fill out physically and he just needs time to develop his game. But now, after seven years, we pretty much know who he is: .270-.275 with 7-10 HRs and 40-50 RBI in minors-shortened seasons. He looks like a borderline starting catcher at the big-league level.
Young isn't considered much of a prospect, and we'll have to wait and see if GM Mike Hazen can turn a round B pick into anything of value.
All things considered, I'd rather be on the Cardinals' side of this one. Harper, strong team play and/or a great baseball town could all potentially convince Goldschmidt to stay.
Stay tuned for more trade and free agent analysis in the coming weeks!
