In perhaps the busiest and most jaw-dropping NBA offseason in league history, Chris Paul (Rockets), Paul George and Carmelo Anthony (Thunder), Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward (Celtics), Isaiah Thomas and Dwyane Wade (Cavs), Jimmy Butler (T'Wolves) and Paul Millsap (Nuggets) changed uniforms.
The entire landscape of the NBA changed, except for the fact that the Warriors and Cavs are still the favorites to meet in the NBA Finals. Oh well. Let's get into it...
(** EDITOR'S NOTE: The vast majority of this piece was written on Sunday, October 8. Some roster situations may have changed since then. **)
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Atlantic Division
5. New York Knicks
New York's new front office regime did the right thing by dealing Carmelo Anthony to the Thunder -- ending what has been a tiresome, toxic relationship -- but the rebuilding process could take 3-5 years. The good news is that new GM Scott Perry's braintrust welcomes offense in the form of SG Tim Hardaway, Jr., C Enes Kanter, SF Michael Beasley, SF Doug McDermott and PG Jarrett Jack.
I think HC Jeff Hornacek should forget about defense altogether. This roster simply doesn't have the personnel to be a top-tier defensive unit. I'd go all-in on the scorers by starting Jack, Hardaway, Beasley, Kristaps Porzingis and Kanter. I doubt Hornacek will concur, though. He'll also be considering Ramon Sessions, Frank Ntilikina, Courtney Lee, McDermott and Willy Hernangomez for starting spots. Jack or Sessions could end up cut, too.
Look, let's be real -- only the Cavs, Celtics, Wizards, Raptors and Bucks should be locks for East playoff spots. That means, if everything breaks right, any other team could reach the postseason. Yup...even the Knicks. Wouldn't shock me.
4. Brooklyn Nets
As a long-time Nets fan, I've always been a big Brook Lopez supporter. He's a consummate professional, and I love his high-percentage game. So, it took me a few weeks to digest his trade to the Lakers for D'Angelo Russell (whom I've bashed in the past), but I've come to terms with it now.
I understand what GM Sean Marks and HC Kenny Atkinson are doing. The league has transitioned to "3-and-D" and now the Nets have Russell, Jeremy Lin, Allen Crabbe, DeMarre Carroll, Caris LeVert, Sean Kilpatrick, Joe Harris and Spencer Dinwiddie. That's a lot of perimeter shooting.
I'm happy that this franchise is keeping up with the times, and that awareness alone could potentially help the Nets shock the consensus that considers them a joke. This club will go as Russell and Lin do.
3. Philadelphia 76ers
My loyal readers know that I refuse to buy a boarding pass for the Preseason Hype Train. Very rarely do the "hype" teams hit their projected marks. There's no question that the Sixers are one of the most talented squads in the East -- boasting Joel "The Process" Embiid, Ben Simmons, No. 1 overall pick Markelle Fultz and Dario Saric -- but Embiid and Simmons have concerning injury histories. Fultz hasn't played a game in the NBA yet.
Absolute best-case scenario for HC Brett Brown's Sixers is the 6-seed. The more likely scenarios are the 8-seed or missing the playoffs altogether.
2. Toronto Raptors
Could be addition-by-subtraction here. DeMarre Carroll is a solid, two-way NBA player, but the Raptors were never the right fit for him. Carroll thrived in Mike Budenholzer's unselfish, pass-and-cut offense with the Hawks, but when you play with DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry, the ball sticks. Dwane Casey's offense puts the ball in the hands of his stars, and they like to play one-on-one basketball.
For whatever reason, young swingman Norman Powell seems comfortable under those circumstances. He'll step up for the Raptors this season, and C.J. Miles was also a nice addition.
1. Boston Celtics
I've already tackled these Celtics, so I won't waste too much time here. Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward will require an adjustment period within Brad Stevens' offense, but they'll be ready come playoff time. No reason to expect the East Finals will be anything other than Cavs vs. Celtics.
Central Division
Yikes. Talk about a rebuild. Zach LaVine (knee) won't even be on the court until mid-November (the earliest), which means...umm...Kris Dunn and Denzel Valentine will carry this team? Good luck, Fred Hoiberg. That seat must be steaming hot.
4. Indiana Pacers
What an absolutely atrocious offseason for GM Kevin Pritchard. Just putrid. Shockingly bad. You're holding an incredibly-valuable trade chip in Paul George, and the best you can do is perennial underachiever Victor Oladipo? Not acceptable. Hope this team flops as a punishment for ineptitude, and it will.
3. Detroit Pistons
I think Stan Van Gundy is a good coach and talent evaluator, but it doesn't seem like anyone wants to play for him. Overall, this is a light team that will be leaning heavily on Avery Bradley and Tobias Harris for offensive production. Reggie Jackson has nagging knee and groin issues, and he isn't that valuable, anyway.
I'm only putting the Pistons third because SVG will maximize what he has, and Bradley is a winner. He'll assist Andre Drummond and Harris in leading this team.
2. Milwaukee Bucks
Jabari Parker (ACL surgery) won't be back until February the earliest, and that's a real shame. Seems like it's always one of the key guys for this team, right? Last year Khris Middleton didn't return from injury until the home stretch.
Overall, when healthy, this is an interesting and dangerous team. Jason Kidd gets his guys to compete. He has hustlers and dedicated team players like Matthew Dellavedova, Malcolm Brogdon and Tony Snell, and they mesh well with Middleton, Greg Monroe and Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee's most talented performers.
Giannis is seriously trending in the direction of LeBron James. The sky is the limit.
How come, when the Cavs signed Dwyane Wade, everyone's first reaction was, "Eh, he's old."
Like, show this dude some respect! I got a number of texts from avid sports fans saying "he won't make that much of a difference."
Well, with Isaiah Thomas out until January, I beg to differ. I think Wade will bring the poise, leadership and pure ability that LeBron James needs to keep Cleveland atop the East. It will be interesting to see how HC Tyronn Lue handles Wade's minutes in relation to Derrick Rose, J.R. Smith, Kyle Korver and Iman Shumpert. Lot of veteran mouths to feed.
In the end, this is all superfluous chatter. It all comes down to Cavs vs. Celtics and -- possibly -- Cavs vs. Warriors.
3. Denver Nuggets
1. Houston Rockets
Southeast Division
5. Orlando Magic
When owner Rich DeVos inevitably dismissed laughable GM Rob Hennigan, I wrote a long, detailed letter to Mr. Devos (as well Head Coach Frank Vogel and Basketball Analytics Manager David Bencs) suggesting ways for Orlando to overhaul its cluttered, clunky roster.
This organization is heavily invested in non-shooters like Elfrid Payton, Aaron Gordon and Bismack Biyombo. I recommended that DeVos clean house. Get hip to the times. Distance yourself from "key" players who can be left wide open by opposing, smart defenses.
I told them to draft Malik Monk, one of the purest shooters to come out of college in years. Instead they took Jonathan Isaac, another raw project. Needless to say, the organization didn't even have the decency to call or email me back. The preceding offseason I wrote a similar letter to the Knicks, and they were kind enough to give me a call to discuss the memo.
Can you imagine that? The Knicks being MUCH more professional than another NBA franchise?
Anyway, Gordon will be asked to lead this team...where exactly? I don't have a clue. He'll be good for fantasy purposes, but that's all. Another dreadful season for a pathetic organization going nowhere.
Well, maybe going backwards.
4. Atlanta Hawks
Every year they get worse on paper, but Mike Budenholzer is an excellent coach. If he can get to the playoffs with Kent Bazemore as his second-best player, then he truly is a miracle-worker. Of course I'm referring to the losses of Paul Millsap, Tim Hardaway, Jr., Dwight Howard and Mike Scott.
3. Miami Heat
Wow, this is reaaaally a tough one. I'm talking super close with the Hornets. I have nothing but the utmost respect for both Pat Riley and Erik Spoelstra; I just have a little hunch on the Hornets this year.
After losing LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, Ray Allen, Joe Johnson and Luol Deng over the course of the past 4-5 years, Riley and "Spo" have done a fantastic job rebuilding this club, finding absolute steals in C Hassan Whiteside, SG Dion Waiters, G Tyler Johnson and F James Johnson.
Like the aforementioned Bucks, these guys play for their coach. They leave it all on the floor. I hope they squeeze into a playoff spot. This organization and its players deserve it.
2. Charlotte Hornets
Maybe I just love Michael Jordan too much. I'm still rooting for him all these years later.
As an executive, MJ's M.O. is clear as day -- he wants college players from big schools with known pedigrees. Just look at his current roster: Kemba Walker and Jeremy Lamb (teammates and national champs at UConn), Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Malik Monk (Kentucky), Marvin Williams (North Carolina), Cody Zeller (Indiana) and Frank Kaminsky (NCAA Tournament superstar at Wisconsin).
While they were undoubtedly collegiate standouts, they aren't all-stars at the NBA level (with the exception of Kemba). However, collectively, they provide a nice balance of hustle, perimeter shooting and pure competitiveness. Kaminsky drastically improved in his second season as a pro, and I think Monk was a steal for MJ at No. 11 in this year's draft. I smell a bounce-back year for Steve Clifford's hardworking Hornets.
1. Washington Wizards
While they were undoubtedly collegiate standouts, they aren't all-stars at the NBA level (with the exception of Kemba). However, collectively, they provide a nice balance of hustle, perimeter shooting and pure competitiveness. Kaminsky drastically improved in his second season as a pro, and I think Monk was a steal for MJ at No. 11 in this year's draft. I smell a bounce-back year for Steve Clifford's hardworking Hornets.
Markieff Morris' hernia surgery worries me, but this club still has a relatively easy path to another division title. I don't like Jason Smith as a temporary replacement at the power forward position, but I think Mike Scott will end up stealing some of those minutes away from him.
You know the deal -- the Wizards franchise is currently in good hands with John Wall, Bradley Beal and Otto Porter leading the way. Three classy kids who lead by example and boast immense basketball talent.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
Northwest Division
5. Utah Jazz
Plain and simple: Quin Snider's team will miss Gordon Hayward and George Hill too much to repeat their success from last season. The T'Wolves and Nuggets made marquee acquisitions, so this division is going to be ultra-competitive. I'd be pretty shocked to see the Jazz in the postseason again.
4. Minnesota Timberwolves
I love the concept behind what Tom Thibodeau is doing -- acquiring Jimmy Butler and Taj Gibson brings familiarity and toughness from their days with the Chicago Bulls franchise. Butler and Gibson speak Thibs' language, and they can act as on-court surrogates as Karl-Anthony Towns, Andrew Wiggins, Jeff Teague and Jamal Crawford continue to feel their way around coach's system.
There's no question that Minnesota's front office had a wonderful offseason; just remember that this club only won 31 games last year. They have to show me something before I can put them ahead of the next three teams.
Paul Millsap is just one of those guys who always plays the game correctly. Knows when to shoot, pump-fake, pass, drive, help on defense, etc. He's a consummate professional and teammate. He and Nikola Jokic combine to form an outstanding frontcourt for Mike Malone's upward-trending Nuggets.
The question and deciding factor for Denver will be its backcourt. Is Jamal Murray the answer at the point? How will Emmanuel Mudiay's minutes be handled? Can Gary Harris stay healthy?
4. New Orleans Pelicans
I don't have the answers to any of those questions, and this is a backcourt-driven league. Feels like another late-season fight for a playoff spot.
2. Portland Trail Blazers
I like the fact that they stayed pat. Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum form an incredible backcourt. Starting center Jusuf Nurkic was and is a massive upgrade over Mason Plumlee (who the aforementioned Nuggets are stuck with now). Al-Farouq Aminu can be an interesting gadget player at the power forward position if Terry Stotts leaves him alone.
Above all, this group has continuity. They also experienced a wake-up call last season when, if not for the well-timed arrival of Nurkic, they would have missed the postseason after winning 44 games and grabbing the 5-seed the year before. They have a better understanding of effort level now. I think people are sleeping on them in the crowded West.
1. Oklahoma City Thunder
There are only two questions for Billy Donovan's team: (1) Are there enough shots to go around for Russell Westbrook, Paul George and Carmelo Anthony? And (2) will these "interesting" personalities make it through the season without killing each other?
I think, somehow, they will. Westbrook needed supporting talent to push OKC deeper into the postseason, and he has it now. They should take this division.
Southwest Division
5. Dallas Mavericks
The West is just too talented right now. Rick Carlisle's boys just don't have enough ability and/or explosiveness. Dennis Smith, Jr. absolutely looks like the real deal, but he won't be enough to make this team a contender.
The Pelicans are a perennial disappointment. I have no idea how Alvin Gentry keeps his job as head coach. It's truly mind-boggling. He's done a horrific job with this team.
I know they have DeMarcus Cousins these days, but Darius Miller, E'Twaun Moore and Solomon Hill are your perimeter shooters? I'm not buyin' it.
3. Memphis Grizzlies
I always find a way to doubt this team, and I just ain't doin' it anymore. Mike Conley and Marc Gasol are stable leaders atop this franchise. Zach Randolph will be dearly missed, but I like what I've seen in terms of JaMychal Green's development at power forward. He's a potential breakout player.
Tyreke Evans and Chandler Parsons are total crapshoots; but no matter what, I think David Fizdale will maximize his club's win total. He did a fantastic job in year one.
2. San Antonio Spurs
Kawhi Leonard (quad) still doesn't have a timetable for return. Now that is a concern. Gregg Popovich will figure it out -- as always -- but I can't put these guys ahead of James Harden and Chris Paul without Kawhi at 100%.
Whenever a Superteam is created, we hear the same ol' question: are there enough shots to go around? Now, I asked that question about the Thunder because it's relevant. Russell Westbrook and Carmelo Anthony are shoot-first players. They could potentially clash on-and-off the court.
But James Harden and Chris Paul? Sure, they have entirely different personalities -- CP3 is a balls-to-the-wall competitor, whereas Harden shrivels away into nothing under pressure -- but on the court we're talking about two of the most unselfish basketball players in the world.
Harden, arguably the most gifted one-on-one scorer of all, led the NBA with 11.2 assists per game. He can score when he wants, but he makes a conscious decision to keep his teammates involved. CP3 finished 4th with 9.2 per game, and his 8,251 assists are the most of any active player. These superstars will share the rock with one another, as well as productive teammates like Eric Gordon, Clint Capela, Trevor Ariza and Ryan Anderson.
Luc Richard Mbah a Moute should provide a lift defensively, as well.
Pacific Division
5. Phoenix Suns
They won 24 games last year. Only addition this year is interesting rookie Josh Jackson. This club isn't going anywhere.
This still feels like a dysfunctional family to me. Remember when GM Vlade Divac said he passed up a "better deal" after sending Boogie Cousins to the Pelicans for Buddy Hield, Tyreke Evans, Langston Galloway, a 1st and 2nd round pick?
Like, seriously, who says that?
I remember Vlade was a clown as a player, but does he have to continue being a clown as a "professional" executive? When you say you passed up a "better deal," what does that say to Hield, who is the centerpiece of the deal you actually made? It's totally nonsensical and unprofessional.
Luckily for Vlade, Hield played very well for the Kings, averaging 15.1 points per game on 48% shooting, after scoring only 8.6 PPG for the Pelicans. The Kings have some pieces now, with Hield, explosive rookie De'Aaron Fox, swingman Justin Jackson (another rookie) and free agent signee George Hill, but HC Dave Joerger has his hands full here.
How will he distribute the minutes between the veterans (Zach Randolph, Vince Carter and Kosta Koufos) and the upstarts (Skal Labissiere, Bogdan Bogdanovic and Willie Cauley-Stein)?
15. Chicago Bulls
I think there's a cutthroat, potentially-winning lineup here -- Fox, Hill, Hield, Randolph and Cauley-Stein -- but I'm not sure Joerger will find it. In today's hybrid league, just play your best players. On this team, that means Fox, Hill and Hield together. We'll see.
3. Los Angeles Clippers
Who the hell knows with this team? Isn't there something bizarre about Patrick Beverley, Lou Williams, Danilo Gallinari, Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan in the same lineup? It feels like, mashed together. It doesn't necessarily look cohesive, but Doc Rivers is one of the best in the biz.
His wild cards are PG Milos Teodosic and his son, Austin. They'll need to be a level above where they're expected to be. Doc will somehow get more out of this personnel than he should.
2. Los Angeles Lakers
I'm gonna be honest here -- I initially had the Clippers ranked ahead of them. I figured, in the end, Doc Rivers would coach his vets past Luke Walton's inexperienced kids.
But, ya know what? I can see these baby Lakers runnin' and gunnin' their way to success. With Lonzo Ball pushing the pace and looking to keep his teammates in rhythm, the production possibilities are there for Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Jordan Clarkson, Brandon Ingram, Julius Randle and Brook Lopez.
The Lakers' organizational plan is solid and logical: Luke Walton is a positive, energetic young head coach with a winning background (Warriors), and he's being given the opportunity to grow alongside his young, hungry players. Too bad the West is stacked right now.
1. Golden State Warriors
Same ol' story for these guys -- just gotta keep Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Kevin Durant and Draymond Green healthy. If they do that, we already know the result.
CONFERENCE RANKINGS AND PLAYOFF SEEDING
Eastern Conference (Playoff Teams in Bold)
14. New York Knicks
13. Orlando Magic
12. Indiana Pacers
11. Atlanta Hawks
10. Detroit Pistons
9. Brooklyn Nets
8. Philadelphia 76ers
7. Miami Heat
6. Charlotte Hornets
5. Milwaukee Bucks
4. Washington Wizards
3. Toronto Raptors
2. Boston Celtics
1. Cleveland Cavaliers
Western Conference
14. Dallas Mavericks
13. Utah Jazz
12. Sacramento Kings
11. New Orleans Pelicans
10. Los Angeles Clippers
9. Los Angeles Lakers
8. Memphis Grizzlies
7. Minnesota Timberwolves
6. Denver Nuggets
5. Portland Trail Blazers
4. San Antonio Spurs
3. Oklahoma City Thunder
2. Houston Rockets
1. Golden State Warriors
THE POSTSEASON
Western Conference Finals: Warriors over Rockets, 4-2.
NBA Finals: Golden State Warriors over Cleveland Cavs, 4-1. Sorry, but it's the most likely outcome (again).
