Ahhhh, Sunday mornings.
There was a time when worshipers would religiously wake up early, strap on their "Sunday best," enjoy a family breakfast, then stroll on over to the local church.
Fast forward to 2017, and the routine goes something like this:
Wake up with a smile, put up a glorious pot of coffee, whip out the smartphone, read the latest injury reports, check the weather for your home team's game, set your 4 season-long fantasy lineups, check the Vegas line movements, set your dozens of DFS lineups, then put in your bets.
The NFL owns Sunday, now.
So, without further ado, here come my 2017-18 NFL preseason predictions...
** EDITOR'S NOTE: I began writing this piece on Monday, August 14, so some of the information may be slightly dated. I will provide updates where applicable. **
AMERICAN FOOTBALL CONFERENCE
AFC EAST
My Jets have undoubtedly been the laughingstock of the NFL offseason.
Everyone knows that GM Mike Maccagnan is attempting to tank by cutting ties with big names like Brandon Marshall, Eric Decker, Nick Mangold and Darrelle Revis, as the organization positions itself for its first legitimate franchise quarterback since "Broadway" Joe Namath. The 2018 draft class features stud signal callers like Sam Darnold (USC), Josh Allen (Wyoming) and Lamar Jackson (Louisville), and Maccagnan isn't about to miss the boat.
Unfortunately, as any true Jet fan will tell you, things never go as planned for Gang Green. So, while I agree with the logic behind Maccagnan's master plan and believe in Darnold's immense talent, something will go wrong and blow the whole plan to smithereens. So what exactly is that something?
The Jets will play too well to be the worst team in the league. Here are some reasons why:
1. Their Vegas over/under is 4.5 wins, and EVERYONE is taking the under. Over the years, one thing has become overtly clear about football wagering: When the Public is heavy on one side, the "sharp" play is usually to go the other way. A quick example of the Public sentiment about the Jets: Colin Cowherd officially predicted that they would go 0-16.
2. The Jets' defensive line still boasts legit talents in Muhammad Wilkerson, Leonard Williams and Sheldon Richardson; Demario Davis, Darron Lee and Lorenzo Mauldin are good linebackers, and rookie SS Jamal Adams was considered by many to be the best player in the draft, relative to position. This defense may allow New York to win a few ugly, close, low-scoring games. Josh McCown is the right kind of quarterback for those types of games, too. He'll protect the ball and play with veteran moxie.
3. Opposing teams always seem to take the "worst" team lightly. Coming into the season as the consensus laughingstock can often become an advantage. Football's a game that can be won on fluke fumbles, tipped passes, blocked punts and/or missed field goals, so the ultimate goal is to stay within one score. If you do that, anything can happen. I think against lesser opponents, the Jets can do just that.
4. The Dolphins and Bills are weaker than they initially looked on paper. That's four interesting division games, right there.
In the end, the Jets will end up stuck in the middle because that's the worst place for them -- and their fans -- to be.
3. Buffalo Bills (5-11); Strength of Schedule: 5th
4. The Dolphins and Bills are weaker than they initially looked on paper. That's four interesting division games, right there.
In the end, the Jets will end up stuck in the middle because that's the worst place for them -- and their fans -- to be.
Nothing feels right for the Bills this season. The organization is seemingly always looking for ways to push Tyrod Taylor out the door; star WR Sammy Watkins has been traded to the Rams, where he's joined former WR2 Robert Woods; WR3 Marquise Goodwin is looking sharp for the 49ers and new head coach Sean McDermott is a defensive specialist replacing a mirror in Rex Ryan.
This organization doesn't feel like it controls its own destiny. They're just kind of floating in the wind like the feather at the end of Forrest Gump. I happen to like Taylor, but with the exception of LeSean McCoy, the weapons simply aren't there.
A weak division -- with the obvious exception of the Patriots -- and a potentially well-coached defense led by DTs Marcell Dareus and Kyle Williams, MLB Preston Brown and CB Tre'Davious White are the only things getting this club to 5 wins.
2. Miami Dolphins (8-8); Strength of Schedule: 6th
Man, I really feel badly about Ryan Tannehill -- what a crying shame. The questionable QB who always seemed destined for the "bust" label finally found what he needed in head coach Adam Gase, and of course he goes down without taking a regular-season snap in year two. Football is f'n unfair.
Gase did a fantastic job transitioning the Phins from the dead-end Joe Philbin era to immediate playoff relevancy in the AFC. This team has a significant amount of offensive talent at the skill positions with RB Jay Ajayi, WRs Jarvis Landry, DeVante Parker and Kenny Stills, and newly-acquired TE Julius Thomas, and Gase absolutely knows how to use it.
The bad news is he and GM Chris Grier have decided to put their faith in one of the NFL's biggest losers, underachiever Jay Cutler. He had finally reached his ultimate goal -- drinking beer on his couch with a ridiculous pile of money -- when his wife crushed his lofty dream of retirement. Cutler doesn't wanna play. He doesn't care. He never has.
On the bright side, when Cutler inevitably flops, Gase can turn to the polar opposite in inspirational veteran Matt Moore. The latter is a career-long class act who plays well and motivates his teammates whenever the opportunity befalls him. I've always felt he could start for around a dozen teams.
At the end of the day, the Tannehill injury stings, Cutler costs you a few games early, and you end up somewhere around 8-8.
1. New England Patriots (14-2); Strength of Schedule: 12th
The Jets, Bills, Dolphins and Patriots are in the same division, right?
The Patriots just won the Super Bowl again, right?
The Jets and Bills were shitty last season, right?
So explain this to me...why do the Patriots have an easier schedule than the Jets, Bills and Dolphins?
Clown commish Roger Goodell probably still feels badly about the 4-game Tom Brady suspension. What a joke. The good fortune never runs out for this franchise (official jinx, right there).
Anyyyway, do I really have to write much here? Bill Belichick is the best head coach in the history of professional sports. Brady is one of the greatest professional athletes of all time, and they've added WR Brandin Cooks, who is one of the quickest and fastest players in the entire NFL. You know the deal. It is what it is.
UPDATE: Julian Edelman is out for the season, but in the end it won't matter much. Chris Hogan, Danny Amendola and Malcolm Mitchell will be asked to pick up some of his slack.
UPDATE: Julian Edelman is out for the season, but in the end it won't matter much. Chris Hogan, Danny Amendola and Malcolm Mitchell will be asked to pick up some of his slack.
AFC NORTH
It's never promising when you head into a season with a three-way quarterback battle. I kind of think Brock Osweiler got a raw deal in Houston (though his ceiling is maybe the 25th best QB in the league), but he's not going to propel this Cleveland franchise to greatness; Cody Kessler is a nice little player, but his upside is also quite limited, and rookie DeShone Kizer simply isn't ready yet.
We can bullshit all you want about other positions, but success in the NFL boils down to the man taking the snaps. Just look at the Final Four last season: Falcons (Matt Ryan), Packers (Aaron Rodgers), Patriots (Brady) and Steelers (Ben Roethlisberger). You could easily make an argument that those are the top 4 quarterbacks in the world.
So, yeah, the Browns are inherently limited. I like the offensive talent in Isaiah Crowell, Duke Johnson, Kenny Britt, Corey Coleman and David Njoku, but none of these QBs can extract max performance from this core of skill players.
Defensively, the Browns are looking for an immediate boost from dynamic pass rusher Myles Garrett, but their overall talent pool is limited. Also, Hue Jackson is just a god awful coach. I mean, just atrocious. Really, really bad. The Pats have Brady and Belichick. The Browns have 3 stooges and Hue Jackson. Umm, yeah.
UPDATE: Kizer has won the starting job. That doesn't change my projected win total.
UPDATE: Kizer has won the starting job. That doesn't change my projected win total.
3. Baltimore Ravens (8-8); Strength of Schedule: 24th
Jeremy Maclin and Danny Woodhead are very solid NFL players -- but am I the only one who feels like the Ravens always acquire guys slightly after their physical primes? Generally speaking, that's not the best organizational philosophy.
Frankly, I'm concerned about Joe Flacco's back, but this team will hang around the .500 mark. John Harbaugh is one of the best in the business; this club just has a low ceiling.
2. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6); Strength of Schedule: T-27th
Every year I seem to question the stability of the Steelers, but I'm not going to fall into that trap this season. Ben Roethlisberger appears to be a couple hits away from the end of his career; Le'Veon Bell is always injured, suspended or holding out; Martavis Bryant is always smoking weed and their back-up QB situation sucks, but Mike Tomlin and Todd Haley just get it done. These dudes can coach.
Defensively, the unit-formerly-known-as "The Steel Curtain" has shown improvement the past couple seasons, and T.J. Watt, Cameron Sutton, Tyson Alualu and Coty Sensabaugh have joined the fray this year.
I've come to accept that this squad will be there come playoff time. I tip my cap to consistency.
I love when nobody's talkin' about a particular team. The Browns had an intriguing offseason. The Ravens added some familiar faces. The Le'Veon Bell Saga "steels" the Pittsburgh headlines. No one seems to care about the Bengals, and that is most certainly a good thing for them.
It's very simple for Cincy: They'll pile up a double-digit win total if the three-headed monster of Andy Dalton, A.J. Green and Tyler Eifert stays healthy.
I've never been a fan of Marvin Lewis -- he's essentially a figurehead and not a tactician in any way -- but this squad has won many games in spite of him. I think that'll continue this year. Rookie RB Joe Mixon is getting rave reviews, while Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard are seasoned pros.
Defensively, this unit is always decent, if unspectacular. Cincy is a consistently competitive club, but they're one of my top sleepers this year because no one seems to view them as a threat. That's a mistake, for sure.
4. Jacksonville Jaguars (6-10); Strength of Schedule: T-30th
AFC SOUTH
We officially have a quarterback controversy in Jacksonville...and does anyone really care other than the two players involved? Bust Blake Bortles broke the internet with this horrendous throw the other day, and WR1 Allen Robinson seems to be at the end of his rope with his broken-armed QB. Chad Henne took the first-team reps in practice recently, and can ya blame new head coach Doug Marrone?
While we're on the topic of Marrone; he's a polarizing figure, huh? With a low-ceiling team in Buffalo, he seemed to exceed expectations in the win column. When contract negotiations rolled around, he didn't like what he was hearing from Management; so he made the ballsy decision to bet on himself. He expected to be highly sought after on the open market, but ended up as the offensive line coach for the lowly Jags. Now he's worked his way up to the top spot, so the question is...can an Old School guy succeed in today's softer pro sports culture?
As a man, Marrone has a terrible reputation. He's been called "selfish," "greedy," shortsighted, stubborn, nasty and more of the like. Those qualities are a tough sell in an era defined by well-liked, team-first leaders like Dan Quinn, Jason Garrett, Mike Tomlin and Bill O'Brien. Over in the NBA, you have similarly-adored coaches like Steve Kerr, Brad Stevens, Erik Spoelstra and Mike Budenholzer. So, in essence, Marrone's "my way or the highway" philosophy represents the Old Guard making a final stand against the New Wave.
While all that makes for an interesting topic of conversation, the reality is that Marrone's Jags will be relying on Bortles and/or Henne. How far can you really go with either one of those guys? This club should probably be projected for 4 or 5 wins, but I'm giving Marrone credit for a couple close ones.
UPDATE: Bortles won the job. Sticking with 6 wins.
3. Indianapolis Colts (7-9); Strength of Schedule: 32nd
Indy's owner Jim Ersay recently said franchise quarterback Andrew Luck will be back "around" the start of the season. Reading between the lines, that means there's a high-percentage chance we'll be seeing either Scott Tolzien or Stephen Morris under center for the Colts' opener at the Los Angeles Rams. Luck had shoulder surgery in January, and his recovery hasn't been swift or smooth.
When you're a team that never rates well defensively, and you aren't particularly well-coached on either side of the ball, you end up relying on the strength and accuracy of your quarterback's throwing arm, right?
Well, it's looking like Luck is aiming for a Week 3 return vs. the Browns, and who's to say if he'll truly be ready then? How can I get behind a team with uncertainty surrounding its $140 million QB? I think Luck will be rusty/shaky through (at least) Week 6, and that's simply too deep into the 2017 schedule for this club to make a legitimate run at a postseason spot.
2. Houston Texans (8-8); Strength of Schedule: T-25th
While we're on the topic of Marrone; he's a polarizing figure, huh? With a low-ceiling team in Buffalo, he seemed to exceed expectations in the win column. When contract negotiations rolled around, he didn't like what he was hearing from Management; so he made the ballsy decision to bet on himself. He expected to be highly sought after on the open market, but ended up as the offensive line coach for the lowly Jags. Now he's worked his way up to the top spot, so the question is...can an Old School guy succeed in today's softer pro sports culture?
As a man, Marrone has a terrible reputation. He's been called "selfish," "greedy," shortsighted, stubborn, nasty and more of the like. Those qualities are a tough sell in an era defined by well-liked, team-first leaders like Dan Quinn, Jason Garrett, Mike Tomlin and Bill O'Brien. Over in the NBA, you have similarly-adored coaches like Steve Kerr, Brad Stevens, Erik Spoelstra and Mike Budenholzer. So, in essence, Marrone's "my way or the highway" philosophy represents the Old Guard making a final stand against the New Wave.
While all that makes for an interesting topic of conversation, the reality is that Marrone's Jags will be relying on Bortles and/or Henne. How far can you really go with either one of those guys? This club should probably be projected for 4 or 5 wins, but I'm giving Marrone credit for a couple close ones.
UPDATE: Bortles won the job. Sticking with 6 wins.
3. Indianapolis Colts (7-9); Strength of Schedule: 32nd
Indy's owner Jim Ersay recently said franchise quarterback Andrew Luck will be back "around" the start of the season. Reading between the lines, that means there's a high-percentage chance we'll be seeing either Scott Tolzien or Stephen Morris under center for the Colts' opener at the Los Angeles Rams. Luck had shoulder surgery in January, and his recovery hasn't been swift or smooth.
When you're a team that never rates well defensively, and you aren't particularly well-coached on either side of the ball, you end up relying on the strength and accuracy of your quarterback's throwing arm, right?
Well, it's looking like Luck is aiming for a Week 3 return vs. the Browns, and who's to say if he'll truly be ready then? How can I get behind a team with uncertainty surrounding its $140 million QB? I think Luck will be rusty/shaky through (at least) Week 6, and that's simply too deep into the 2017 schedule for this club to make a legitimate run at a postseason spot.
I'm beating a dead horse on this topic, so I'll leave it at this: Bill O'Brien is one of the elite head coaches in the NFL.
On paper the Texans always seem to be missing key ingredients of a winning formula, and yet, you look up at the standings at the end of the season and they either win the division or steal a Wild Card spot. This team competes, and that's a testament to their coaching staff and leaders, DE J.J. Watt, ILB Brian Cushing and WR1 DeAndre Hopkins. Watt and Cushing are textbook emotional leaders, while Hopkins' superb route running and extreme attention to detail allow him to lead by example.
The problem this year is that they're committing to QB Tom Savage out of the gate. Again, Osweiler was no world-beater, but he was beginning to trend in the right direction in terms of ball protection. I think the Texans' offense had the potential to become the mini-Chiefs. You may say that isn't striving for much, but when you're talking about Savage, Osweiler and Brandon Weeden, is it logical and/or realistic to strive for the offensive production levels of the Patriots, Packers or Falcons?
Of course it isn't. So, Osweiler was beginning to settle in toward the end of last year, when he passed for 253 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions in the final regular season game at the Titans, followed by 168 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions in a 27-14 playoff victory over the Raiders. In both games he also rushed for a TD. So between Osweiler and Savage, I take the former and try to turn him into Alex Smith.
Now this year, there's a different issue: Give Deshaun Watson the damn ball! He was an excellent, no-brainer draft selection by the Texans' front office, and there's no logical reason to start Savage over him. The Jets reached the AFC Championship in Mark Sanchez's first two seasons in the NFL, simply by managing the difficulty of his decisions and throws. Dak Prescott shined in a similar scenario last year.
So, hand the keys to Deshaun and let him drive. Savage isn't a strong enough alternative, anyway. I think this decision may cost the Texans a couple wins, and a playoff spot.
1. Tennessee Titans (9-7); Strength of Schedule: T-30th
All aboard! Last call for passengers on The Hype Train!
Ask any novice NFL fan who their "sleeper" team is this season, and there's a 90 percent chance they'll say the Titans. When everyone seems to agree on the "team to watch," flopping becomes a likely scenario. Luckily for the Titans, Luck's injury and Bortles' existence are good news. The Texans are mediocre enough for Tennessee to squeak out this division.
We all know the deal -- Marcus Mariota has been in desperate need of weapons, and here come Eric Decker and rookie Corey Davis. Unfortunately, Decker has proven to be quite injury-prone, and Davis' hamstring injury has turned his summer into a total bust. The talent pool has undoubtedly improved for the Titans, I just don't think they'll be running away with 11 or 12 wins.
4. Denver Broncos (6-10); Strength of Schedule: 1st
The problem this year is that they're committing to QB Tom Savage out of the gate. Again, Osweiler was no world-beater, but he was beginning to trend in the right direction in terms of ball protection. I think the Texans' offense had the potential to become the mini-Chiefs. You may say that isn't striving for much, but when you're talking about Savage, Osweiler and Brandon Weeden, is it logical and/or realistic to strive for the offensive production levels of the Patriots, Packers or Falcons?
Of course it isn't. So, Osweiler was beginning to settle in toward the end of last year, when he passed for 253 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions in the final regular season game at the Titans, followed by 168 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions in a 27-14 playoff victory over the Raiders. In both games he also rushed for a TD. So between Osweiler and Savage, I take the former and try to turn him into Alex Smith.
Now this year, there's a different issue: Give Deshaun Watson the damn ball! He was an excellent, no-brainer draft selection by the Texans' front office, and there's no logical reason to start Savage over him. The Jets reached the AFC Championship in Mark Sanchez's first two seasons in the NFL, simply by managing the difficulty of his decisions and throws. Dak Prescott shined in a similar scenario last year.
So, hand the keys to Deshaun and let him drive. Savage isn't a strong enough alternative, anyway. I think this decision may cost the Texans a couple wins, and a playoff spot.
1. Tennessee Titans (9-7); Strength of Schedule: T-30th
All aboard! Last call for passengers on The Hype Train!
Ask any novice NFL fan who their "sleeper" team is this season, and there's a 90 percent chance they'll say the Titans. When everyone seems to agree on the "team to watch," flopping becomes a likely scenario. Luckily for the Titans, Luck's injury and Bortles' existence are good news. The Texans are mediocre enough for Tennessee to squeak out this division.
We all know the deal -- Marcus Mariota has been in desperate need of weapons, and here come Eric Decker and rookie Corey Davis. Unfortunately, Decker has proven to be quite injury-prone, and Davis' hamstring injury has turned his summer into a total bust. The talent pool has undoubtedly improved for the Titans, I just don't think they'll be running away with 11 or 12 wins.
AFC WEST
In today's quarterback-crazy league, I give John Elway a lot of credit for putting together a defense-driven team that won the Super Bowl a few years ago. Unfortunately, the Broncos' outlook isn't as bright this season.
Elway's club still boasts an elite defense -- led by OLB Von Miller, CBs Chris Harris and Aqib Talib, DE Derek Wolfe and SS T.J. Ward -- but I have serious concerns about QBs Trevor Siemian and Paxton Lynch, the Raiders and Chiefs are a pair of legitimate playoff teams, and Denver has the toughest schedule in the entire NFL.
Siemian is about as vanilla as they come, and Lynch looks like he's going to be a bust to me. I think Elway will have to consider some dramatic changes after this season.
3. Los Angeles Chargers (7-9); Strength of Schedule: 3rd
In close games, the Chargers always seem to lose in excruciating fashion. This has been going on for years now. Maybe former HC Mike McCoy was bad luck (I actually thought he was a pretty decent X's and O's coach). I don't think Anthony Lynn will be an improvement from a tactical standpoint, but Philip Rivers doesn't need much assistance running the offense. Things have to even out eventually, right? I think they'll win a couple close ones this year.
I can't get too crazy with their record though, because the Raiders and Chiefs are pretty safe bets.
2. Kansas City Chiefs (10-6); Strength of Schedule: 2nd
Elway's club still boasts an elite defense -- led by OLB Von Miller, CBs Chris Harris and Aqib Talib, DE Derek Wolfe and SS T.J. Ward -- but I have serious concerns about QBs Trevor Siemian and Paxton Lynch, the Raiders and Chiefs are a pair of legitimate playoff teams, and Denver has the toughest schedule in the entire NFL.
Siemian is about as vanilla as they come, and Lynch looks like he's going to be a bust to me. I think Elway will have to consider some dramatic changes after this season.
3. Los Angeles Chargers (7-9); Strength of Schedule: 3rd
In close games, the Chargers always seem to lose in excruciating fashion. This has been going on for years now. Maybe former HC Mike McCoy was bad luck (I actually thought he was a pretty decent X's and O's coach). I don't think Anthony Lynn will be an improvement from a tactical standpoint, but Philip Rivers doesn't need much assistance running the offense. Things have to even out eventually, right? I think they'll win a couple close ones this year.
I can't get too crazy with their record though, because the Raiders and Chiefs are pretty safe bets.
Andy Reid is a wizard. He may never be able to win The Big One with Alex Smith calling his signals, but he knows how to pile up regular-season victories. Like Belichick, Reid meticulously studies the minutia and finds discreet weaknesses in his opponents. I can't give KC 12 wins like last season because they have the second-toughest schedule in the game, but they'll find a way to get 10.
UPDATE: RB1 Spencer Ware is out for the season, so I was considering dropping KC to 9 wins. However, whenever Jamaal Charles went down in the past, Reid found ways to squeeze productivity out of his backs. Kareem Hunt and Charcandrick West will be asked to carry the load, now. Sticking with 10 wins.
UPDATE: RB1 Spencer Ware is out for the season, so I was considering dropping KC to 9 wins. However, whenever Jamaal Charles went down in the past, Reid found ways to squeeze productivity out of his backs. Kareem Hunt and Charcandrick West will be asked to carry the load, now. Sticking with 10 wins.
1. Oakland Raiders (11-5); Strength of Schedule: 4th
I mean, some of these are pretty self-explanatory. As long as the Raiders can keep Derek Carr healthy, they are a top contender to meet the Patriots in the AFC Championship Game. Marshawn Lynch has been getting a lot of offseason hype, but I don't think he'll be that much more productive than Latavius Murray was. It's an upgrade, but it ain't gonna beat the Pats.
NATIONAL FOOTBALL CONFERENCE
NFC EAST
WR1 Alshon Jeffery will certainly help, but I'm not a big believer in either QB Carson Wentz or HC Doug Pederson. RB LeGarrette Blount will be a bust without Belichick, Brady and that offensive line.
3. Dallas Cowboys (8-8); Strength of Schedule: T-10th
What is wrong with Ezekiel Elliott? Like seriously, man, you have the world at your fingertips! Just stop f'n up!
Anyway, both Darren McFadden and Alfred Morris have a lot of mileage on their tired legs, so we're looking at a major drop off in production here. Dallas' offensive line is widely considered the best in the league, but that didn't seem to matter when they went 4-12 just two seasons ago.
Jason Garrett is coming off a fantastic season on the sidelines, and Dak Prescott showed me an awful lot about his mental toughness in the attempted playoff comeback against the Packers, but Elliott is just too big a loss for 6 games. It looks like a good year, bad year trend is in effect for Jerry Jones' high-profile franchise.
2. New York Giants (9-7); Strength of Schedule: T-8th
Toot toot! Preseason Hype Train, here we come again...
Brandon Marshall undoubtedly provides a lift, but I'm worried about Eli Manning. The following QBs had higher passer ratings than Eli last year: Jameis Winston (18 picks, only Rivers had more), Carson Palmer (who played the worst ball of his career) and Colin Kaepernick.
Yup, Colin Kaerpernick was better than Eli Manning last season.
And it's not only the stats; it's also The Eye Test. Eli didn't look like himself last year. He was super indecisive. He missed window throws he used to make with ease. His timing was clearly off. Now, Marshall is obviously supposed to open up some looks for him, but Odell Beckham is coming into the season limping, and the Giants' offensive line is notoriously shaky.
On the bright side, in the backfield, I happen to like first-year starter Paul Perkins, while DE Jason Pierre-Paul, DT Damon "Snacks" Harrison, SS Landon Collins and CBs Janoris Jenkins and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie will continue to lead this rock-solid defense that improved drastically last year.
1. Washington Redskins (10-6); Strength of Schedule: 7th
Anyway, both Darren McFadden and Alfred Morris have a lot of mileage on their tired legs, so we're looking at a major drop off in production here. Dallas' offensive line is widely considered the best in the league, but that didn't seem to matter when they went 4-12 just two seasons ago.
Jason Garrett is coming off a fantastic season on the sidelines, and Dak Prescott showed me an awful lot about his mental toughness in the attempted playoff comeback against the Packers, but Elliott is just too big a loss for 6 games. It looks like a good year, bad year trend is in effect for Jerry Jones' high-profile franchise.
2. New York Giants (9-7); Strength of Schedule: T-8th
Toot toot! Preseason Hype Train, here we come again...
Brandon Marshall undoubtedly provides a lift, but I'm worried about Eli Manning. The following QBs had higher passer ratings than Eli last year: Jameis Winston (18 picks, only Rivers had more), Carson Palmer (who played the worst ball of his career) and Colin Kaepernick.
Yup, Colin Kaerpernick was better than Eli Manning last season.
And it's not only the stats; it's also The Eye Test. Eli didn't look like himself last year. He was super indecisive. He missed window throws he used to make with ease. His timing was clearly off. Now, Marshall is obviously supposed to open up some looks for him, but Odell Beckham is coming into the season limping, and the Giants' offensive line is notoriously shaky.
On the bright side, in the backfield, I happen to like first-year starter Paul Perkins, while DE Jason Pierre-Paul, DT Damon "Snacks" Harrison, SS Landon Collins and CBs Janoris Jenkins and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie will continue to lead this rock-solid defense that improved drastically last year.
With QB Kirk Cousins in a contract year, there are a handful of different ways this season can shake out for HC Jay Gruden and his Redskins. By all accounts, after this year, Cousins is set to become the highest-paid player in NFL history. So the two obvious outcomes are: (1) He rises to the occasion and posts stats similar to or better than last season or (2) he collapses under the immense pressure and diminishes his value on the open market.
I happen to believe he'll fall somewhere in the middle, with the arrow leaning toward scenario #1. Cousins hasn't played well in The Big Game yet -- with last season on the line, he went 22 for 35 with only one touchdown and two ugly picks in the final game, at home, against the division-rival Giants -- but over the course of a long season he has the coaching and personnel to squeak out this division title.
WR1 Terrelle Pryor should be a significant talent/athleticism upgrade over departed vet Pierre Garcon (though it may take Cousins and Pryor a few games to find their rhythm as a tandem), WR2 Jamison Crowder thrives in this system, Jordan Reed is one of the most gifted players at his position in a long time, and RB1 Rob Kelley comes in as a better player than Matt Jones was at the beginning of last year.
CB Josh Norman leads the way defensively, and his value simply cannot be denied. His absence certainly played a role in Carolina's collapse last season. The Giants and Skins are going to take this division down to the wire.
NFC NORTH
As if this team didn't have enough problems...WR1 Cameron Meredith goes down with a season-ending injury in yesterday's preseason dress rehearsal. QB Mike Glennon isn't as bad as haters are saying, but moving the ball is going to be awfully difficult with Alshon Jeffery in Philly and Meredith on the operating table. RB Jordan Howard is clearly the centerpiece of this offense, but it's hard to run the ball effectively without the threat of a legitimate passing attack.
HC John Fox and Chicago's front office are going to have an awfully difficult decision on their hands: Is it too dangerous to let No. 2 overall selection Mitchell Trubisky play under these circumstances? Most expect Trubisky to take some snaps as the starter this season, but do you want to risk killing his confidence without any significant receiving options? I'll let them figure that one out.
3. Minnesota Vikings (9-7); Strength of Schedule: T-27th
Mike Zimmer's defense was fiery and ferocious last year. DE Everson Griffen provides pressure from the edge, NT Linval Joseph swallows up would-be rushers, CB1 Xavier Rhodes is one of the best in the business and CB Terence Newman supplies invaluable veteran leadership. With one of the easiest schedules in the league, these guys will be feasting on opposing offenses again this year.
Offensively, while he's never going to knock your socks off, I'll admit that Sam Bradford has played better for the Vikings than he did for the Eagles or Rams. Did you know that Bradford had a higher QB rating (99.3) than Cousins, Derek Carr, Andrew Luck, Marcus Mariota and Ben Roethlisberger last season?
Impressive. Yet and still, any team commandeered by Bradford has a low ceiling. They'll also have to figure out how to distribute their carries between Dalvin Cook, Latavius Murray and Jerick McKinnon.
2. Detroit Lions (10-6); Strength of Schedule: T-21st
I enjoyed watching Matthew Stafford play without Calvin Johnson last year. The former displayed far superior field vision than we'd seen from him in the past. I don't think much changes for the Lions this season, except that RB Ameer Abdullah provides an extra weapon for the arsenal if he can stay on the field.
1. Green Bay Packers (12-4); Strength of Schedule: 18th
It was nice to see WR Davante Adams break out last season. Heading into the prior year, he was everyone's favorite fantasy darling, and he totally flopped. Last season he was off the grid, and seemingly came from out of nowhere to pile up 997 yards and 12 touchdowns. At his position, his TD total was second to only one player...incredible teammate Jordy Nelson.
I mean, do I really have to say much about this offense? Aaron Rodgers is one of the top 2 or 3 quarterbacks of all time, RB1 Ty Montgomery is a major upgrade over fat Eddie Lacy, WR3 Randall Cobb still gets it done and TE Martellus Bennett was a tremendous offseason pickup.
So, at the end of the day, there are only two questions for this team to answer:
1. Can they make enough stops to beat the Falcons in the playoffs?
2. If applicable, can they make enough stops to beat the Patriots in the Super Bowl?
I just don't have a lot of confidence in this defense. We'll see.
NFC SOUTH
Now boarding all passengers for the final stop on the Preseason Hype Train!
Look, this one is simple: I like their personnel across the board, but I don't believe Jameis Winston can limit his mistakes enough for Dirk Koetter's team to reach the postseason.
If you've watched any of Winston's career to this point -- or even if you've only watched Hard Knocks this season -- then you understand the overarching issues. Koetter says, "Okay, game on the line offense, let's make the right play," and Winston proceeds to underthrow a pick into triple coverage. Then he says, "We can't turn the ball over in the redzone," and Winston, while falling to the ground, throws a pick into heavy traffic in the endzone.
WRs Mike Evans and DeSean Jackson, DT Gerald McCoy and LBs Kwon Alexander and Lavonte David are all frontline players, but they won't matter if Winston turns the ball over in make-or-break situations. I don't think he'll make the necessary mental adjustments.
3. Carolina Panthers (8-8); Strength of Schedule: 16th
They may never recover from letting Josh Norman walk in his prime. Ya gotta lock up prime players. Can't cheap out.
Meanwhile, who knows what to think about Cam Newton at this point? He had rotator cuff surgery this offseason, and he was an absolutely horrible leader last year. You can't be dabbing and celebrating when things are going well, then acting like a child and blaming your teammates when shit hits the fan. A true leader keeps his teammates up at all times.
On the flip side, rookie RB Christian McCaffrey should provide a lift as a dangerous receiver out of the backfield. That is, of course, if Newton isn't forcing the ball into tight windows downfield.
No one's talkin' about Drew Brees' boys, and you know I like that. After going 11-5 in 2013, the Saints have gone 7-9 in each of the last three seasons. During that time period, they've lost an excruciating number of tight games. I think that'll balance out this year. They'll steal a couple close ones.
I don't have to write anything else. You know the deal: Explosive offense, exploitable defense.
1. Atlanta Falcons (12-4); Strength of Schedule: 13th
Just typing "Atlanta Falcons" makes me cringe. That was the worst Super Bowl experience of my life. To this day, I'm still sick to my stomach. I hate the Patriots THAT much.
Anyway, this team has the potential to win 13-15 games, but there has to be some sort of SB hangover. Ultimately, I believe in Dan Quinn, Matt Ryan, Julio Jones and Devonta Freeman, so I think Atlanta will have another shot at it this postseason.
Yet in the back of my mind, we all saw what happened to the Panthers last season, after going 15-1 the year before. I think Ryan will have superior mental resiliency, though.
NFC WEST
New HC Kyle Shanahan is one of my least favorite people on earth. Why? WHY did he call a passing play when the Falcons were about to seal a Super Bowl victory with a field goal from automatic Matt Bryant? WHY? WHY GOD?!!
Yet and still, from a tactical standpoint, Shanahan will squeeze more out of this depleted 49ers' talent pool than he probably should. They'll probably win 5 or 6 games, but I'm making 4 my official prediction because I want Shanahan to suffer the sting of failure (again).
3. Los Angeles Rams (5-11); Strength of Schedule: 17th
New offensive-minded head coach Sean McVay is a step in the right direction for this organization, but I don't think he can turn things around as quickly as Adam Gase did in Miami. WRs Sammy Watkins and Robert Woods were perfectly logical pickups, but Jared Goff isn't ready yet. He may never be. McVay can coach him up all he wants; Goff's ceiling may just be inherently low.
DE Aaron Donald and LB Alec Ogletree will continue to lead this defense that tends to be a bit overrated.
2. Arizona Cardinals (9-7); Strength of Schedule: 23rd
I don't like Carson Palmer or Bruce Arians, but I have a gut feeling about this team. Last season was a total disaster for them, but I'm sensing that they will definitely hang around the playoff race this year. Maybe it's because cancerous WR Michael Floyd is finally gone, and I don't think very highly of the 49ers or Rams.
1. Seattle Seahawks (10-6); Strength of Schedule: T-25th
Funny that they splurged on Eddie Lacy and he might be the 4th-best running back on their roster. Thomas Rawls, if healthy, is a legitimate starter; C.J. Prosise is a burner who can break off a big play at any time, and youngster Chris Carson has impressed throughout offseason workouts and the preseason. Lacy has been one of the most overrated players in the NFL for the past 4-5 seasons.
Otherwise, you know the deal -- Pete Carroll, Russell Wilson, Doug Baldwin, Jimmy Graham, Richard Sherman, Kam Chancellor, Earl Thomas, Bobby Wagner and Michael Bennett. The usual suspects are back and intact.
THE POSTSEASON
NFC Playoff Seeding: (1) Packers (2) Falcons (3) Seahawks (4) Redskins (5) Lions (6) Saints
AFC Wild Card Weekend: Bengals over Chiefs and Steelers over Titans
NFC Wild Card Weekend: Seahawks over Saints and Redskins over Lions
AFC Semifinals: Patriots over Steelers and Raiders over Bengals
NFC Semifinals: Packers over Redskins and Falcons over Seahawks
AFC Championship Game: Patriots over Raiders, 31-24
NFC Championship Game: Packers over Falcons, 38-35
SUPER BOWL LII
I think the Falcons will get a little unlucky along the way, and I don't think the Packers can get enough clutch stops to beat the Pats in the world's biggest game.
They're gonna do it again. F**k my life.
