As my loyal readers already know, I hate these obligatory intros. Let's get right into my projections...
AMERICAN LEAGUE EAST
1. Boston Red Sox: No team in the AL East is unflappable. The Sox lost David Ortiz -- one of the best all-around hitters in the world and their premier clutch performer -- to retirement, and David Price is heading into the season with elbow issues. At full strength, they are the best team in this division on paper, but I doubt we'll see Price or Drew Pomeranz at their healthiest this year.
Of course, on the positive side, they have a ridiculous lineup boasting Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, Hanley Ramirez and Dustin Pedroia, with intriguing wild cards like Andrew Benintendi, Jackie Bradley, Sandy Leon and Mitch Moreland. There's a good chance this club will hit 1 through 9.
Clearly the pitching additions of Chris Sale and Tyler Thornburg are huge, but it's reasonable to doubt repeat performances from Rick Porcello and Steven Wright. And don't forget...this team absolutely flopped in the postseason. The Indians wiped the floor with them. Boston's explosive offense should carry them through the long haul of the regular season, but it will be difficult to be confident in them heading into the playoffs.
2. Toronto Blue Jays: The Sox lost Ortiz, and the Jays lost Edwin Encarnacion. This is a similarly devastating loss for them; I'm surprised they allowed him to get away to a fellow AL playoff contender (Indians). He'll be dearly missed, especially with Jose "Joey Bats" Bautista, Russell Martin and Troy Tulowitzki aging toward the twilight of their careers. Toronto's offense will still be better than average, but it won't strike fear, as it had in the recent past.
On the flip side, this is the best Jays rotation I've seen in quite some time. Aaron Sanchez has the highest upside of the group and is the only true "stud" in terms of stuff, while veterans Marco Estrada and J.A. Happ have aged like fine wine. Talk about "figuring it out" out of nowhere. Estrada gets by with a deceptive over-the-top delivery combined with slow, slower and slowest, but I suspect Happ is on something. Guy used to be a 5th starter/quadruple A player for the Phillies (throwing 88-90), and now he's an AL Cy Young candidate in the toughest offensive division in the game (throwing 93-95)? I'm sorry. Ya can't fool me.
The rotation rounds out with Marcus Stroman, who is a gamer that isn't as electric as many projected him to be, and Francisco Liriano who is definitely worth a shot as your 5th starter. Overall, the Jays are solid, but they won't be separating themselves from the pack. As we know, the Red Sox, Jays, Orioles and Yankees beat each other up all season long.
I'm putting the Yanks here because big league baseball really boils down to two things: You have to hit with runners in scoring position and hold on to close leads. Hitting with RISP can be random from season to season for any given club, but I KNOW the Yankees can hold leads with Dellin Betances and Aroldis Chapman at the back of their bullpen. The Royals did it with Kelvin Herrera, Wade Davis and Greg Holland a couple seasons ago, and the Indians did it last year with Bryan Shaw, Andrew Miller and Cody Allen. Stud bullpens have become immensely valuable; the only question is...who will be that third guy for the Yanks? I think Tyler Clippard is bordering on horrendous.
Offensively, the big question around the league is can Gary Sanchez repeat his astounding production from the second half of 2016? Talk about carrying an entire offense. We've seen Yoenis Cespedes do similar things for the Mets. I think Sanchez is a real deal, but I question his support in this lineup. Jacoby Ellsbury and Matt Holliday should be fine, but Didi Gregorius and Brett Gardner are the ones who need to step up. I've been impressed with Didi's development, whereas Gardner has been trending in the opposite direction for a couple years now. This is a bit of a strange team. Could go either way.
4. Baltimore Orioles: Zach Britton is having oblique issues and Chris Tillman is already on the shelf. This team doesn't have enough quality arms to withstand such major concerns. Manny Machado, Mark Trumbo and Chris "Crush" Davis will look to carry this high-powered offense, though you never know what you're going to get with Trumbo and Crush. Sure they have absolutely ridiculous pure power, but their strikeout-stuffed slumps can stall you. Trumbo slumped less than ever before last season. Will his stats normalize this year?
However, in the end, offense won't be this club's problem. Their starting pitching is super shaky. I still see Ubaldo Jimenez and Wade Miley penciled into slots. Yuck. This is a team that is clearly built upon offense + bullpen -- with Britton, Darren O'Day, Brad Brach and Mychal Givens -- which is an atypical construction, though we've seen it a bit more in the AL in recent years. It's almost as if the GMs and baseball ops people are saying, "Everyone in the league mashes, so starting pitching is irrelevant." We'll see if there's any truth to that notion. The Orioles' success will be dependent on their own mashing.
5. Tampa Bay Rays: I love an easy one: They'll pitch well enough (as always), but in the long run, won't hit enough to truly compete with the Red Sox, Jays and Orioles.
AMERICAN LEAGUE CENTRAL
Offensively, Jason Kipnis, Francisco Lindor and Carlos Santana were Cleveland's reliable performers last year, while Lonnie Chisenhall, Jose Ramirez and Tyler Naquin provided sparks at different times. Add Encarnacion and Brantley to that mix, and this offense will certainly be productive enough to win a second-straight division title.
In their rotation, everyone fits perfectly into their respective slots. Corey Kluber is a legitimate ace, Carlos Carrasco is an immensely talented No. 2, and so on down the line through Danny Salazar, Trevor Bauer and Josh Tomlin. Relative to their rotation slots, they can all be considered elite.
The Indians' bullpen should again be fantastic with Bryan Shaw, Andrew Miller and Cody Allen at the back. There's absolutely no reason to doubt repeat success from this club. It would take a slew of devastating injuries for them to disappoint.
2. Detroit Tigers: This is a well-rounded roster, with the exception being the bullpen arms leading up to one of the game's all-time great closers, Francisco "K-Rod" Rodriguez, who still finds a way to get it done.
Offensively, there's no way to argue with the nucleus of Miguel Cabrera, Ian Kinsler, J.D. Martinez, Justin Upton and Victor Martinez. A wonderful balance of batting average plus power. In their rotation, you have to like the threesome of Justin Verlander, Jordan Zimmermann and Michael Fulmer. So basically the question is...will the Tigers hold their leads in the middle innings, during the bridge from their starters to K-Rod?
Time will tell. They'll be in the AL Wild Card mix.
3. Kansas City Royals: I don't love this team on paper, but I think their championship experience and general competitiveness will keep them ahead of the White Sox and Twins. Kansas City's offense seems light without Kendrys Morales (casualty this offseason) and Ben Zobrist (year before), and I don't like the additions of Jorge Soler and Brandon Moss. Too many strikeouts. Too many easy outs. Too many sub-par major league at bats.
Ned Yost's starting pitching is average with Danny Duffy, Ian Kennedy and Jason Hammel expected to lead the way, and their once-dominant bullpen isn't nearly as intimidating. The Royals' World Series days are a thing of the past.
4. Chicago White Sox
5. Minnesota Twins
I don't like either of these teams. Chicago's starting pitching is shaky with a good-enough bullpen, while Minnesota's pitching is laughable top to bottom. These clubs have been struggling to get over the hump in recent years, and I don't see much changing this time around. Both teams should hit better than they pitch, as the White Sox still have Jose Abreu, Todd Frazier and Melky Cabrera, while the Twins cross their fingers, looking for upside production from Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton and Max Kepler.
My guess is the Twins will hit better than the ChiSox, while the latter will pitch better because of their bullpen led by David Robertson and Nate Jones. Neither club will compete with the Indians or Tigers in this division.
AMERICAN LEAGUE WEST
Offensively, they'll be carried by Adrian Beltre, Rougned Odor and Jonathan Lucroy, with questionable support from wild cards Mike Napoli, Carlos Gomez and Shin-Soo Choo, three guys in the latter third of their careers. Napoli's power production may have been fluky last season and if Gomez is truly good again, then he has to be back on the juice. That's roid rage if I've ever seen it.
Texas' rotation is solid with Yu Darvish, Cole Hamels, Martin Perez and A.J. Griffin, and their bullpen is very strong, boasting great stuff from Matt Bush, Jeremy Jeffress and Sam Dyson. This is a good all-around club, but the Astros and Mariners should be right there. This should be a three-way division race.
2. Houston Astros: This lineup is scary with Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Carlos Beltran and George Springer leading the assault. When you have four reliable bats like that -- a nice mix of youth, experience, power and athleticism -- that takes the pressure off your hit-or-miss guys. In this case, the second set of bats are Brian McCann, Josh Reddick, Yulieski Gurriel and Alex Bregman. With a lineup this deep, there is literally no pressure on Gurriel and Bregman, two guys who are new to the bigs with tremendous power potential. This lineup is just frightful, especially with a left-field fence that's about 300 feet.
Unfortunately, this club can't run away because its pitching is suspect, if I'm being polite. I'll buy into Lance McCullers (if healthy), but Dallas Keuchel, Collin McHugh and Mike Fiers have all peaked at different times in recent years. They aren't scaring opposing bats in the AL West, trust me.
Lastly, Houston's bullpen is arguably the weakest of the AL contenders. Ken Giles has always been highly-touted for his high 90s heater, but he's only had short streaks of success as a closer. That's to be expected in various situations around the league because closer is the most volatile position, but Will Harris and Luke Gregerson don't inspire confidence as the safety nets on the depth chart.
Like the Orioles, this club will have to hit its way to the Promised Land.
3. Seattle Mariners: Their starting outfield of Jarrod Dyson, Leonys Martin and Mitch Haniger is just bizarre to me. Obviously Dyson is intended to be the legs, Haniger is the bat and Martin is supposed to be a mild combination of both -- but is this an outfield of a club that's ready to outperform the Rangers and Astros?
Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz and Kyle Seager will again be asked to carry the offensive load, while "King" Felix Hernandez and Hisashi Iwakuma continue to sit atop Seattle's rotation. Felix's velocity is rapidly declining, so mercurial lefties James Paxton and/or Drew Smyly may have to step up. Both southpaws have been wildly inconsistent over the past couple seasons.
In the end, I can (mostly) get behind the Mariners' offense and starting pitching, but their bullpen is a MAJOR concern. Young closer Edwin Diaz is their only plus reliever (if I'm being generous because he doesn't have much of a track record), and their second-best -- the sometimes shaky Steve Cishek -- is beginning the season on the DL. This team has a playoff shot if everything breaks right, but in my opinion, they're a little behind the eight ball.
4. Oakland Athletics: I have a gut feeling Billy Beane's boys are going to hit well this season. We all suspect that steroids are an integral part of Oakland's "Moneyball" system -- Jason Giambi, Miguel Tejada, Eric Chavez, Billy Koch, Bartolo Colon, Scott Kazmir, Rich Hill, Stephen Vogt and now probably Khris Davis -- so I think we'll see some "surprising" production from newcomers Rajai Davis, Trevor Plouffe and Matt Joyce.
That doesn't change the fact that their starting pitching is shitty. Sonny Gray battled injuries and took a major step backward last season, and he's going to start this year on the DL with a lat strain. That means Kendall Graveman will again be asked to carry this staff, and he's just OK. He pitched well for my fantasy team last season, but he throws 90 and his offspeed stuff is unspectacular. The rest of Beane's starters are laughable and not worth my words.
Their bullpen should be workable with vets like Ryan Madson, Sean Doolittle, Santiago Casilla and John Axford. A few guys approaching retirement there; but good enough. The A's aren't a contender unless their starting pitchers juice up like the Monstars in Space Jam.
Can you imagine having the best position player in his physical prime, and yet your club keeps getting worse and worse, year after year? In theory, when you have a true franchise player like Mike Trout, you should be able to build something special around him. Instead, GM Billy Eppler goes out and grabs Luis Valbuena and Danny Espinosa, so they can strand Trout every time he's on base. I value professional at bats, and Valbuena and Espinosa are two of the LEAST professional hitters in the game. Holes in their swings like you wouldn't believe. Two of the easiest strikeouts in the league.
After Garrett Richards -- who I like and project to bounce back nicely this season -- the Angels' rotation is a trash pile consisting of journeymen and soft tossers. Speaking of juice...Matt Shoemaker was averaging 87-88 two seasons ago, but jumped to 93 last year. Magically, his stats improved. Weird how that happens.
Annnnyway, the Angels aren't going anywhere. Steve Jobs would be appalled by the management of this organization.
NATIONAL LEAGUE EAST
2. New York Mets
Oooh weeeeee, this was a close one. I'm taking the Nats over the long haul of the regular season because I really like what they've done to plug their lineup holes over the past two years. A few years ago I never really considered them a contender because they had too many guys who could be pitched to (for the Mets, that's Jay Bruce, Lucas Duda and Travis d'Arnaud). Now, in addition to prized incumbents Bryce Harper and Anthony Rendon, they have Daniel Murphy, Trea Turner, Adam Eaton and Matt Wieters. This fear-inducing lineup appears to be in the wrong league, does it not?
On the flip side, the Nats lack the bullpen stability that Jeurys Familia and Addison Reed provide for Terry Collins' Mets. Washington is all-in on offense and starting pitching, and that may come back to bite them in the postseason (though I expect GM Mike Rizzo will be on the market for a true closer throughout the year). The Mets are also deeper in starting pitching, and that is important when both clubs have injury concerns like Matt Harvey, Stephen Strasburg and Jacob deGrom.
It's splitting hairs between these two teams, but the Nats' bats will choke less than the Mets. Washington will hit with more consistency under pressure.
3. Atlanta Braves: Just as I had a gut feeling about the Houston Rockets heading into the NBA season, a similar feeling is festering about the Braves. I like the logic behind what they have done. Putting Matt Kemp behind Freddie Freeman turned this into an entirely different club last season, as they were one of the NL's best down the stretch. They have a nice mixture of "win now" and "prepare for later."
Brandon Phillips, Nick Markakis, Bartolo Colon, R.A. Dickey and Jaime Garcia are intended to help you win this season, with rapidly-approaching expiration dates. Dansby Swanson, Adonis Garcia, Mike Foltynewicz, Arodys Vizcaino and Mauricio Cabrera set you up for later.
I like a front office that makes logical decisions. You don't have to reinvent the wheel. Find a nice mixture of youngsters, primetime guys and vets. That's always been the key. The magic key isn't inside a tangential algorithm.
Keep your eye on this club. I'm not sleeping on them as a Mets fan.
4. Miami Marlins: Can't really say anything negative about the Marlins' lineup. Christian Yelich, Giancarlo Stanton and Marcell Ozuna continue to provide a solid nucleus for Miami's offense, while Martin Prado, J.T. Realmuto, Dee Gordon and Justin Bour should be quite helpful in supporting roles.
The more I look at this club's roster, the more I realize they aren't bad at all. The NL East is going to be a competitive nightmare this season. The glaring issue for the Marlins is of course, the devastating death of electric ace Jose Fernandez. Dan Straily and Edinson Volquez should be decent, cost-effective additions to the rotation, but you simply cannot replace a star in his prime like Jose.
However, Miami has an excellent bullpen featuring A.J. Ramos, Kyle Barraclough, Brad Ziegler, David Phelps, Junichi Tazawa and Dustin McGowan. All right-handers, but they all have a lot to offer in their respective roles. It pains me to say it...but there are 4 playoff contenders in the NL East.
5. Philadelphia Phillies: On a smaller scale than the Braves, this is another organization whose personnel moves are starting to make some sense. Unfortunately, the Phillies are trending in the right direction when their division is at its strongest in years.
Howie Kendrick and Michael Saunders are logical veteran additions who should be able to reap the benefits of Citizens Bank Park's little league dimensions. In the pitching department, the same goes for the pick-ups of Clay Buchholz and Joaquin Benoit. Philly's front office strategy is clear: Maybe these guys can help us win now, but even if they don't, we can deal them to contenders at the trade deadline. Makes plenty of sense to me.
The strength of this club is its starting rotation, with the addition of Buchholz -- who should find the NL to be a walk in the park after suffering for so long in the brutal AL East/Fenway Park -- to fellow vet Jeremy Hellickson and 3 up-and-comers in Vince Velasquez, Jerad Eickhoff and Aaron Nola. I don't expect the Phils to roll over for anyone this year.
1. Chicago Cubs: I think we're all pretty familiar with the Cubs' personnel at this point, so there are really only two keys to discuss:
The more I look at this club's roster, the more I realize they aren't bad at all. The NL East is going to be a competitive nightmare this season. The glaring issue for the Marlins is of course, the devastating death of electric ace Jose Fernandez. Dan Straily and Edinson Volquez should be decent, cost-effective additions to the rotation, but you simply cannot replace a star in his prime like Jose.
However, Miami has an excellent bullpen featuring A.J. Ramos, Kyle Barraclough, Brad Ziegler, David Phelps, Junichi Tazawa and Dustin McGowan. All right-handers, but they all have a lot to offer in their respective roles. It pains me to say it...but there are 4 playoff contenders in the NL East.
5. Philadelphia Phillies: On a smaller scale than the Braves, this is another organization whose personnel moves are starting to make some sense. Unfortunately, the Phillies are trending in the right direction when their division is at its strongest in years.
Howie Kendrick and Michael Saunders are logical veteran additions who should be able to reap the benefits of Citizens Bank Park's little league dimensions. In the pitching department, the same goes for the pick-ups of Clay Buchholz and Joaquin Benoit. Philly's front office strategy is clear: Maybe these guys can help us win now, but even if they don't, we can deal them to contenders at the trade deadline. Makes plenty of sense to me.
The strength of this club is its starting rotation, with the addition of Buchholz -- who should find the NL to be a walk in the park after suffering for so long in the brutal AL East/Fenway Park -- to fellow vet Jeremy Hellickson and 3 up-and-comers in Vince Velasquez, Jerad Eickhoff and Aaron Nola. I don't expect the Phils to roll over for anyone this year.
NATIONAL LEAGUE CENTRAL
(1) On the positive side, the 3-1 comeback against the Indians in the World Series allows them to turn the corner, mentally, as a group. They looked mentally feeble the preceding postseason in a gutless sweep at the hands of my Mets, and they weren't exactly convincing in series wins over the weaker Giants and Dodgers. Now, mentally, they should finally have some of that necessary invincibility. This will carry them a long way; similar to the Royals' follow-up the season after they reached the World Series for the first time in a long time.
(2) On the negative side, I'm not so sure Wade Davis is the answer in the closer's role. He's been overworked for many years now, and his dominance may finally have worn away. He had forearm issues last year, and he's been getting shellacked in the spring. Hector Rondon and Pedro Strop better be ready. I could see Theo Epstein snatching a headline closer at the deadline again.
All things considered, we know this is one of the teams to beat.
2. St. Louis Cardinals: I mean, they always just find a way, don't they?
Familiar faces return, with the notable additions being Dexter Fowler (free agency) and Lance Lynn (injury). Their starting pitching should be especially strong, and they always seem to have the mental toughness to hit with RISP. They'll be a central part of the abnormally deep NL Wild Card race.
3. Pittsburgh Pirates: My prediction for this year's Orioles is kind of what happened to the Pirates last season. You can only fight so hard for a stupid one-game playoff for so long. Pittsburgh has taken multiple losses in recent NL Wild Card games, and last season they just didn't have any fight left down the stretch. Unfortunately, they are going to be in a similar position in the standings this time around.
This organization continues to revolve around the talented outfield trio of Starling Marte, Andrew McCutchen and Gregory Polanco. I liked their rotation pick-up of Ivan Nova last year (I tend to like any NL pitching acquisition of a guy with decent-to-good stuff who under-performed in the AL, see the aforementioned Clay Buchholz), and he'll support ace Gerrit Cole as youngsters Jameson Taillon and Tyler Glasnow continue to develop. This is a rotation with good, pure stuff.
Bullpen is questionable patchwork, with Daniel Hudson and Tony Watson dueling for the closer's role. This is a nice team, but without even getting to the NL West, they're already in a Wild Card mosh pit with the Mets, Braves, Marlins and Cardinals. The sledding will be slippery and difficult.
4. Milwaukee Brewers: I see some good things here, but their overall talent level isn't significant enough to stay in the playoff hunt. Ryan Braun is a steady force in the heart of the order; Jonathan Villar and Hernan Perez bring speed, youth and exuberance, while Eric Thames, Travis Shaw and Keon Broxton are the wild cards. Thames was once a 4th or 5th outfielder for the Blue Jays, but he became a megastar overseas. He's another clear steroid candidate, so he should be in for a career year in the MLB.
I like the feisty Junior Guerra atop their rotation, but the rest are nothing to write home about. Their bullpen is predominantly a pile of rejects.
5. Cincinnati Reds: I'm getting bored and don't feel like writing much more, and fittingly, the Reds aren't a team to waste too many words on. Joey Votto, Adam Duvall and a bunch of scraps. Their ace, Anthony DeSclafani (who I actually do like), just got shut down as well. Should be a long season.
NATIONAL LEAGUE WEST
I'll let the photos do the talking here...
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4. Colorado Rockies
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3. San Francisco Giants
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2. Arizona Diamondbacks
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1. Los Angeles Dodgers
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THE POSTSEASON
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Wild Card Game: Mets over Giants, 3-1
NLDS: Mets over Cubs, 3-2 and Nationals over Dodgers, 3-1
NLCS: Mets over Nationals, 4-2
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Wild Card Game: Tigers over Astros, 6-4
ALDS: Indians over Tigers, 3-1 and Red Sox over Rangers, 3-1
ALCS: Indians over Red Sox, 4-1
WORLD SERIES
CLEVELAND INDIANS OVER THE NEW YORK METS, 4-1.
Our Mets fall short once again. What a surprise.
