If LeBron James takes his talents back to Cleveland, Kevin Love will follow. If LeBron stays in Miami, Chris Bosh will stay. If LeBron goes to Cleveland, Bosh goes to the Houston Rockets. If Bosh goes to the Rockets, Chandler Parsons goes to the Dallas Mavericks. If Bosh stays in Miami, Parsons stays in Houston.
You with me?
Yeah, me neither. I can barely follow that and I wrote it.
Let's start with Scenario #1...if LeBron and Love both end up in Cleveland, they will instantly be the clear-cut favorite to come out of the Eastern Conference. Love and Kyrie Irving will go from carrying sub-par teams and getting primary defensive attention, to playing off the ball more and reaping the benefits of LeBron's textbook drive-and-kicks. The looks Love and Irving will get will be almost too good to be true.
The Cavs will be far from a perfect team -- Irving, Dion Waiters and Love leave much to be desired defensively -- but they should be virtually unstoppable offensively, as Waiters and Tristan Thompson are also skilled on that end. LeBron will also get his teammates to elevate their collective defensive effort and effectiveness. They have enough athleticism to improve.
Scenario #2...if LeBron stays in Miami, Bosh will stay and of course Dwyane Wade remains. They also added Josh McRoberts and Shabazz Napier, who should certainly outperform Udonis Haslem and Mario Chalmers. Chalmers played the worst basketball of his life this postseason. Of course Napier is only a rookie, but he's already fearless and LeBron's wholehearted support doesn't hurt. McRoberts was also one of the most improved all-around players in the NBA over the course of the past two seasons. If LeBron stays they will be the clear favorites in the East, especially if Lance Stephenson leaves the Pacers.
What does this do for Houston? Not much, I don't think. Adding Bosh means losing Parsons, and I don't see much of a difference in value at this stage in their respective careers. Bosh complements Dwight Howard's game well, but a gaping hole emerges at the small forward position. I don't see Bosh propelling the Rockets to the very top of the West. I think they basically stay where they are, in the 3-to-6 range.
Scenario #4...Signing Bosh means the Rockets don't have the ability to keep Parsons, who then joins Monta Ellis, Dirk Nowitzki, Tyson Chandler and Rick Carlisle in Dallas. The NBA Playoffs are a long haul and people tend to forget what happened in the first round, but the Mavs forced the Spurs to a Game 7 this postseason. The same Spurs team that embarrassed the defending-champion Heat and upstart Portland Trail Blazers, in addition to disposing the dynamic duo of Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant. Carlisle is also the second-best head coach in the league (behind Pop, of course).
This would make the Mavs a serious contender, though I don't like the idea of Raymond Felton inheriting many of Jose Calderon's minutes. I think Carlisle will hate the way Felton plays. Devin Harris will probably be the starter and Dallas could potentially add another point guard at the deadline.
Scenario #5...Bosh and Parsons both stay put. This is pretty self-explantory -- the Heat and Rockets stay where they are in the grand scheme.
So what about the rest of the offseason frenzy?
Well, not surprisingly, I'm very happy to hear that Carmelo Anthony is staying with Phil Jackson and the Knicks. Gives me another team to watch when my Nets aren't on. The Knicks would have been completely unwatchable if Melo skipped town. I already like what the Zenmaster has accomplished, dumping Chandler and Felton's contracts and working diligently to do the same with Amar'e Stoudemire, though I don't see the latter happening. That would be nothing short of a miracle.
Not really sure where Stephenson will land. He's such a bizarre player I could see another team getting frustrated with his style. Some games he's your best all-around player, others he's a complete non-factor. He's a true wild card.
Guys like Vince Carter, Mike Miller, and Ray Allen don't matter until we see where the big dogs land. I'm curious about Greg Monroe, Luol Deng and Gordon Hayward as well.
All right, LeBron...make a decision! I'm dying here. Then we can see where the rest of the chips fall.
