NBA Top 100 Players: Five Megastars. Only One Can Be Number One.

Embed from Getty Images

Nearly every offseason, both Sports Illustrated and ESPN release their controversial NBA top 100 players lists (though the latter went with the top 100 of all time this year). More often than not, these lists are teetering on horrendous. ESPN is usually too obsessed with ridiculous metrics, and Sports Illustrated had a particularly rough offseason this year. 

So, as usual, it's my turn to clean up their collective messes. Some important notes before we get started:

1. I'm only going to include short blurbs for rankings that may be considered unorthodox, or require some specific sort of explanation. 

2. My abbreviated ranking system keeps the following in mind: 

(A) Offense is rarer than defense. (B) Can this player carry a team under playoff-type pressure? (C) Role players on top teams are glorified, but they're still just role players. (D) Teams cannot win in the postseason without stars who create for themselves and their teammates. (E) Last season's actual production is more important than this year's projections, but we still have to project a little (obviously in the case of impact rookies). (F) Durability is an invaluable commodity. 

3. Later in the week, I'm going to extend this post to the top 200 players. That should provide some more context. All right, let's go...

100. Marvin Williams, F, Charlotte Hornets (SI: 65)

99. Jarrett Jack, PG, Atlanta Hawks (SI: Unranked)

Jack is an un-flashy veteran coming off a major surgery, but did you know he was 8th in the NBA in assists per game last season (prior to injury)? We know he's always been a crafty one-on-one scorer, but he's also developed his distribution over the years. He's a mentally-tough player, and I respect his ability to hit big shots. 

98. Marcus Morris, F, Detroit Pistons (SI: Unranked)

97. Dennis Schroder, PG, Atlanta Hawks (SI: Unranked)

96. Avery Bradley, G, Boston Celtics (SI: 72)

95. George Hill, PG, Utah Jazz (SI: 56)

As you can see, Sports Illustrated severely overrated Hill. He's a smart, solid professional basketball player, but his lack of explosiveness makes him a liability as a starter at the most competitive position in the sport. His lack of foot speed makes him a weak penetrator, and you have to break down the opposing D to be truly successful in the NBA. Hill is just a nice player; he's not a near top 50 guy. 

94. Tyreke Evans, G/F, New Orleans Pelicans (SI: Unranked)

93. Zach LaVine, G, Minnesota Timberwolves

92. Markieff Morris, PF, Washington Wizards (SI: Unranked)

91. Thaddeus Young, F, Indiana Pacers (SI: 66)

90. Kenneth Faried, PF, Denver Nuggets (SI: 87, we almost agreed on this one)

89. Darren Collison, PG, Sacramento Kings (SI: Unranked)

Embed from Getty Images 

88. Enes Kanter, PF/C, Oklahoma City Thunder (SI: 88, wow!)

87. Tristan Thompson, C, Cleveland Cavs (SI: 52)

Remember what I said about the glorification of role players on high-quality teams? Need I say more right now? Nevertheless, I will. I actually really like Tristan -- I would certainly welcome him with open arms to my Nets or Knicks -- but he's essentially just a coordinated finisher and offensive rebounder. He doesn't work nearly as hard in the regular season as he does in the playoffs. You can't be the 52nd best player in the NBA, simply because you rebound well in a handful of higher-leverage games. 

86. Steven Adams, C, Oklahoma City Thunder (SI: 40!!!)

This SI ranking is bordering on insanity. Do you remember anyone gushing about Steven Adams during the regular season? No, he was just a solid big splitting minutes with Serge Ibaka and the aforementioned Enes Kanter. He contributes nicely during the postseason, so SI skyrockets him into the top 40? He's just a tough guy who is improving his finishing around the cup. Steven Adams is not an electric player. In the top 40 we should be talking about primetime guys. 

85. Chandler Parsons, SF, Memphis Grizzlies (SI: 51)

84. Deron Williams, PG, Dallas Mavericks (SI: Unranked)

I hate D-Will because of his shitty attitude when he played for my Nets, but the fact remains that he's a talented all-around point guard who can penetrate, knock down mid-range jumpers and treys, dish with the best of 'em and defend well when he wants to. The problems are keeping him healthy and happy. Easier said than done. 

83. Jamal Crawford, PG, Los Angeles Clippers (SI: Unranked)

You gotta be kidding me, Sports Illustrated! Cody Zeller (94), Mason Plumlee (93) and Bismack Biyombo (91) are on your list, but the greatest bench player of his generation is not? "J-Crossover" is a jaw-dropping solo offensive performer who leaves "lingerie on the deck," as the hilarious announcer and ex-coach Bill Raftery would say. That means he fakes defenders out of their clothes. Jamal is durable and dependable, and he can carry your offense through periods of stagnation. Seriously...Bismack F***in Biyombo?!!

82. Harrison Barnes, SF, Dallas Mavericks (SI: Unranked)

81. DeMarre Carroll, SF, Toronto Raptors (SI: 73)

80. Jabari Parker, F, Milwaukee Bucks

79. Kyle Korver, SF, Atlanta Hawks (SI: 70)

Embed from Getty Images 

78. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, SG, Detroit Pistons (SI: Unranked)

A young, versatile performer settling into his niche on a quality team in the midst of successful development. If they can survive temporarily without Reggie Jackson, the Pistons will further their collective improvement under Stan Van Gundy, and Kentavious will continue to knock down jumpers from all distances while providing useful length and athleticism for his position. 

77. Kent Bazemore, SG/SF, Atlanta Hawks (SI: 90)

76. Jeremy Lin, PG, Brooklyn Nets (SI: Unranked)

Lin was one of the most valuable players on an overachieving Hornets team last season, and now he's in Brooklyn to play second fiddle to Brook Lopez. If he stays healthy, Lin will post career bests across the board, with the exception being that astonishing run of "Linsanity" with the Knicks. He's a smart player who can penetrate and shoot, while always playing with a ton of passion. Brooklyn's fanbase is certainly going to love him. 

75. Tony Parker, PG, San Antonio Spurs (SI: Unranked)

Clint Capela (79) and Nikola Jokic (78) are in SI's top 80, and Tony Parker isn't on their list at all. I'm going to stop this blurb right here, before I have a coronary. 

74. Serge Ibaka, PF/C, Orlando Magic (SI: 42)

Another glorified role player. SI absolutely loves bigs and role players, so it makes sense to see Serge at 42 on their ridiculous list. He's a good mid-range shooter who has stretched beyond the three-point arc, but he's never developed a back-to-the-basket game or all-around offensive repertoire. His defense is overrated because he's a flashy shotblocker. He disappears for stretches of games and weeks of seasons. He'll help the Magic, but he's not a top 50 player. 

73. Evan Fournier, SG, Orlando Magic (SI: 95)

72. Monta Ellis, SG, Indiana Pacers (SI: Unranked)

Exactly the type of player SI doesn't like: A veteran guard with plenty of postseason experience who can create off the dribble for himself and others. A crunchtime player who has the balls to make big shots. A baller with basketball in his blood. 

71. Dwight Howard, C, Atlanta Hawks (SI: 34!!!)

I've always been a Dwight defender, but he can barely get up and down the court these days! He's taken a beating in the paint for many years now. His back, flexibility and athleticism simply aren't what they used to be. He'll defend and rebound when he's physically capable of doing so, which will be around half of the time. That's not the 34th best player in the NBA. 

70. Brandon Knight, PG, Phoenix Suns (SI: 98)

69. Ryan Anderson, PF, Houston Rockets (SI: 89)

68. Rudy Gobert, C, Utah Jazz (SI: 33!!!! I already discussed this travesty in another post.)

67. Eric Gordon, SG

66. Ben Simmons, G/F, Philadelphia 76ers (SI: Unranked)

We've all heard the hype that suggests he can become a top 10 all-around player, so I figured this was a nice, conservative projection based on his massive upside. His injury quickly knocked him out of top 50 consideration. Gotta love his size, athleticism, ball skills and versatility, though. 

65. J.J. Redick, SG, Los Angeles Clippers (SI: 59)

64. Emmanuel Mudiay, PG, Denver Nuggets (SI: Unranked)

Man, SI hates guards. Mudiay already flashed the ability to stuff the stat sheet as a rookie, he just needs to cut down on his turnovers. Denver is trending in the right direction, and Mudiay is positioned to grow alongside his young teammates Jusuf Nurkic, Gary Harris and Nikola Jokic (yes, I know I made fun of him before, but you'll see him in my top 200 later on this week). 

63. Derrick Rose, PG, New York Knicks (SI: Unranked)

Embed from Getty Images 

62. Rudy Gay, SF, Sacramento Kings (SI: 80)

61. Wesley Matthews, SG/SF, Dallas Mavericks (SI: 92)

60. Jordan Clarkson, SG, Los Angeles Lakers (SI: Unranked???)

Huh? A young, high-upside, super athletic combo guard who has already displayed consistent NBA productivity isn't a top 100 guy? I guess he needs to block more shots or be a limited role player. 

59. Greg Monroe, PF/C, Milwaukee Bucks (SI: 63)

58. Nicolas Batum, SG/SF, Charlotte Hornets (SI: 43)

57. Tobias Harris, F, Detroit Pistons (SI: 77)

56. Jae Crowder, SF, Boston Celtics (SI: 53)

55. Derrick Favors, PF, Utah Jazz (SI: 28???)

When did Derrick Favors become an international superstar? When the Jazz made their breakout playoff run? No, neither of those things ever happened. He's a solid all-around professional power forward; not the 28th best player in the game. Come on, now. I promise you either Rob Mahoney or Ben Golliver is a Jazz fan. Or both. 

54. Ricky Rubio, PG, Minnesota Timberwolves (SI: 71)

53. Devin Booker, G/F, Phoenix Suns

Embed from Getty Images 

52. Goran Dragic, PG, Miami Heat (SI: 61)

51. Victor Oladipo, SG, Oklahoma City Thunder (SI: 74)

50. Nikola Vucevic, C, Orlando Magic (SI: 75)

49. Marc Gasol, C, Memphis Grizzlies (SI: 22)

He's coming off injury and was already slow, lumbering and consistently overvalued. A savvy basketball player with an overrated skillset, Marc is right where he belongs at 49. Good defender, good passer, not a franchise player for an upper-echelon organization. 

48. Zach Randolph, PF, Memphis Grizzlies (SI: 64)

47. Jeff Teague, PG, Indiana Pacers (SI: 57)

46. Khris Middleton, SG/SF, Milwaukee Bucks (SI: 39)

45. Eric Bledsoe, G, Phoenix Suns (SI: 49)

44. Reggie Jackson, PG, Detroit Pistons (SI: 54)

43. Kristaps Porzingis, PF, New York Knicks (SI: 68)

When Steve Summer thinks I'm overrating someone, I'm obligated to explain: What more can you possibly want from a second-year player? Am I allowed to explain by asking a question? Porzingis is a friggin' giant with a ridiculous wingspan who can score, block shots and fit perfectly within an unselfish, team-oriented offensive system. He's the ideal pick-and-pop big -- who is gonna contest his silky, mid-range jumper with an Empire State Building release? Sky's the limit for this kid...corny pun intended. 

42. Kevin Love, PF, Cleveland Cavs (SI: 30)

41. Bradley Beal, SG, Washington Wizards (SI: 58)

Punished for constantly getting injured. Ya gotta stay on the court. Talent wise, he's probably closer to the top 30. 

40. DeAndre Jordan, C, Los Angeles Clippers (SI: 20)

My loyal readers know I absolutely despise DeAndre and his incessant hype, but I have to be unbiased here. I'm rewarding him for his durability, rebounding and shotblocking. I don't value role players highly on lists like these; but he's one of the better ones. 

39. Pau Gasol, C, San Antonio Spurs (SI: 41)

38. Jonas Valanciunas, C, Toronto Raptors (SI: 62)

One of my most improved players last season. Jonas' value was abundantly clear when he went down during the Raptors' ugly, opening-round playoff series against the Pacers. When he was on the floor, the Pacers were unable to get all the way to the rim, and it seemed impossible for them to come up with an offensive rebound. Jonas is humongous, coordinated, tough and diligent. He's uber-strong on the low block, and has a surprisingly nice touch at the foul line. Only reasons his numbers never balloon are hogs Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan. Keep the big fella involved!

37. Andrew Wiggins, SG/SF, Minnesota Timberwolves (SI: 67) 

We all knew about his showstopping athleticism coming out of college, but he's already a more well-rounded scorer than I thought he'd be. Wiggins averaged 20.7 points per game at age 20, ahead of proven studs like John Wall, Kyrie Irving, Chris Paul, Dirk Nowitzki and LaMarcus Aldridge. Gotta think Thibs is gonna make him even better. 

36. Gordon Hayward, SG/SF, Utah Jazz (SI: 27)

35. DeMar DeRozan, SG, Toronto Raptors (SI: 46)

Embed from Getty Images 

34. Mike Conley, PG, Memphis Grizzlies (SI: 26)

33. Giannis Antetokounmpo, G/F, Milwaukee Bucks

32. Dirk Nowitzki, PF, Dallas Mavericks (SI: 31)

31. Al Horford, C, Boston Celtics (SI: 18)

Notice anything about Bismack Biyombo, Thaddeus Young, Chandler Parsons, Serge Ibaka, Dwight Howard, Mike Conley and now Horford? SI got overexcited about players who got paid this offseason, or were involved in high-profile trades. It's a predictable psychological phenomenon -- the NBA offseason garners a significant amount of media attention, so these names seep into the collective unconscious of the writers, thus artificially inflating their values in lists like these. Horford is a technically-sound all-around basketball player, but there were many nights in Atlanta where you couldn't tell if he was better or more valuable than Jeff Teague, Kent Bazemore or Kyle Korver. His impact is surprisingly elusive at times. 

30. Danilo Gallinari, SF, Denver Nuggets (SI: 47)

A truly versatile scorer is the rarest commodity in professional basketball. Gallo can dribble drive left and right, pull-up, step-back, fade-away, pump-fake, draw contact, hit middies and treys. He's a go-to scorer, but he has to stay healthy. 

29. C.J. McCollum, SG, Portland Trail Blazers (SI: 50)

I don't think I've ever seen an NBA player complete a full transformation faster than C.J. McCollum. When he first came into the league he was overrated, overmatched and a little out of shape. He didn't know if he was a 2 or a 1, and neither did the Blazers. The result was an awkward player who was producing a net negative value rating. However, everything changed instantaneously during the opening round of the 2014-15 playoffs. The LaMarcus Aldridge/Nicolas Batum/Wesley Matthews era was coming to an unceremonious end during a first round beating at the hands of the higher-class Spurs, but one Blazer refused to go quietly: He was, of course, McCollum. In that series, C.J. dedicated himself to the "attack" message that Terry Stotts is always preaching, and the former's confidence has remained intact since. McCollum is now a lightning-quick, hyper-aggressive, dangerous volume scorer who keeps opposing defenders on their heels alongside Damian Lillard. Both Portland guards have blazing releases.

Embed from Getty Images 

28. Isaiah Thomas, PG, Boston Celtics (SI: 45)
27. Jimmy Butler, SG/SF, Chicago Bulls (SI: 16)
26. Hassan Whiteside, C, Miami Heat

25. Dwyane Wade, SG, Chicago Bulls (SI: 32)

Within the organization, the Bulls are calling it "Jimmy Butler's team," but I still think that under duress, D-Wade will carry you more effectively than Butler can. Wade was, once again, one of the premier offensive focal points last postseason. His pacing, control and crunchtime one-on-one prowess place him comfortably among the all-time greats. He's still a fantastic all-around player, and his big-game experience is invaluable. 

24. Draymond Green, F/C, Golden State Warriors (SI: 13)

23. Andre Drummond, C, Detroit Pistons (SI: 29)

22. Brook Lopez, C, Brooklyn Nets (SI: 38)

People always say I'm a "homer" when it comes to my Brook Lopez rankings, but I'm as unbiased as they come. When the Mets suck, I let everybody know about it, and when the Jets suck, I sing it to the world. So when I tell you that Brook Lopez is the 22nd best player in the world, rest assured you can believe me. 

Behind megastars like Shaquille O'Neal, Hakeem Olajuwon and David Robinson, Lopez is one of the best offensive centers I've ever seen. He's huge but has an unbelievably soft touch, which makes him a high-percentage finisher around the cup, as well as one of the elite mid-range shooters at his position. Brook is also extremely coordinated, and when you consider the headaches that bigs like Dwight Howard, DeAndre Jordan and Andre Drummond cause at the foul line, the former's 75-82% free throw shooting becomes invaluable. Brook's also a drastically underrated shot blocker.

21. LaMarcus Aldridge, PF, San Antonio Spurs (SI: 11)

Embed from Getty Images 

20. Paul Millsap, F/C, Atlanta Hawks (SI: 15)
19. John Wall, PG, Washington Wizards (SI: 17)
18. Kyle Lowry, PG, Toronto Raptors (SI: 14)
17. Klay Thompson, SG, Golden State Warriors (SI: 19)
16. Kemba Walker, PG, Charlotte Hornets

15. Carmelo Anthony, F, New York Knicks (SI: 24)

14. DeMarcus Cousins, C, Sacramento Kings (SI: 12)

I punished him for consistent disciplinary issues, as well as his inability to elevate the collective play of his surrounding cast. Cousins is an all-world, all-around talent who is limited by his childish behavior and lack of professionalism. 

13. Anthony Davis, PF/C, New Orleans Pelicans (SI: 8)

Davis is easier to get along with than Cousins, but has some similar issues: (1) Gets down on himself and teammates when things aren't going well. (2) Doesn't make his teammates any better. (3) Hasn't yet proven to be a go-to guy on a team to be reckoned with. Also, rather obviously, he's injury-prone. 

12. Blake Griffin, PF, Los Angeles Clippers (SI: 10)

11. Karl-Anthony Towns, C, Minnesota Timberwolves (SI: 23)

Not sure I've ever seen anyone quite like this kid -- he's a mentally and physically stronger version of Anthony Davis, with a more electric two-way repertoire. There's no question he'll end up one of the top 10 players in the universe; likely top 5. Just need to see the Wolves create a winning culture, first. 

10. Paul George, F, Indiana Pacers (SI: 9)

9. Damian Lillard, PG, Portland Trail Blazers (SI: 8)

8. Kyrie Irving, PG, Cleveland Cavaliers (SI: 25)

I've had so many arguments about Kyrie that I'm getting a bit sick of it, but I'll explain myself again briefly: How many players in the world can consistently get all the way to the rim with their right or left, draw fouls, post-up, pull-up, hit mid-range shots with ease, fade-aways and hit threes? The answer is LeBron James, Kevin Durant, James Harden, Kawhi Leonard and last but not least, Kyrie Irving. Stephen Curry and Russell Westbrook don't feature post-ups. That's how rare Kyrie is -- he's the perfect offensive machine. Not to mention that he has balls of steel and is an immensely entertaining player to watch. Kyrie's the man; you can't convince me otherwise. That SI ranking is a f--king tragedy. Open your eyes! Use common sense! Forget the absurd metrics. 

7. Kawhi Leonard, SF, San Antonio Spurs (SI: 6)

Embed from Getty Images 

6. Chris Paul, PG, Los Angeles Clippers (SI: 4)

5. James Harden, G/F, Houston Rockets (SI: 7)

4. Russell Westbrook, PG, Oklahoma City Thunder (SI: 5)

3. Kevin Durant, SF, Golden State Warriors (SI: 2)

2. Stephen Curry, PG, Golden State Warriors (SI: 3)

Splitting hairs between KD and Steph. I'm giving Steph the temporary nod because he was still the most dominant regular-season player for the second-straight year. Just needs to stop sucking in the NBA Finals.

1. LeBron James, SF, Cleveland Cavaliers: There is only one King. 

2016-17 NBA Preseason Predictions: The Warriors Have Kevin Durant. Should We Just Cancel the Season?

Embed from Getty Images

Between the simultaneous excitement of the MLB playoffs and NFL regular season, it's sometimes difficult for me to find the inspiration to write about the NBA this time of year. Unfortunately, my Mets were bounced quickly so I'm not as invested in the postseason. That leads us to this (comments will be short; I'll let the letter grades do the talking):

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Atlantic Division

1. Toronto Raptors - 2015-16 record: 56-26; 2016-17 projected record: 56-26

Starting five: A-, Bench: B-, Head Coach: B-

Rank in East: 2nd, Overall: 8th

I like the affordable pick-up of PF Jared Sullinger. He should outperform his contract, and there's no pressure on him playing alongside Kyle Lowry, DeMar DeRozan, DeMarre Carroll and Jonas Valanciunas. "Big V" showed some real solid improvement last season, and he should continue to deliver this year. 

Embed from Getty Images

2. Boston Celtics - 2015-16 record: 48-34; 2016-17 projected record: 50-32

Starting five: B+, Bench: B-, Head Coach: A-

Rank in East: 3rd, Overall: 9th

Al Horford will improve this team on both ends of the floor. Not enough to compete for a title, though. 

3. New York Knicks - 2015-16 record: 32-50; 2016-17 projected record: 42-40

Starting five: B, Bench: C, Head Coach: B

Rank in East: 8th, Overall: 20th

Phil Jackson did what he had to do -- without much in the way of trade assets, he acquired players that other teams are hesitant about, due to on or off-court issues; or in one case, both. If Derrick Rose is able to walk away from his serious legal problems without a massive suspension, he should be the 3rd scorer the Knicks are looking for next to Carmelo Anthony and Kristaps Porzingis. Head coach Jeff Hornacek is definitely an upgrade over both Derek Fisher and stopgap Kurt Rambis. This team should squeak into a back-end playoff spot, but Rose, Brandon Jennings and Joakim Noah are always at risk of injury. 

4. Brooklyn Nets - 2015-16 record: 21-61; 2016-17 projected record: 26-56

Starting five: D, Bench: B-, Head Coach: B

Rank in East: 14th, Overall: 28th

There isn't much talent on this roster, but my Nets will play right thanks to new head coach Kenny Atkinson and GM Sean Marks. The Nets will play unselfishly, move the ball and do everything they can to outwork their opponents on a nightly basis. This organization is headed in the right direction; they simply don't have the players right now. 

5. Philadelphia 76ers - 2015-16 record: 10-72; 2016-17 projected record: 16-66

Starting five: D+, Bench: D, Head Coach: D+

Rank in East: 15th, Overall: 30th

I could go on for days about this discombobulated franchise. I'll dedicate a separate column to that. For now, I'll just say that the Ben Simmons injury was a killer. No hope, yet. 

Central Division

1. Cleveland Cavaliers - 2015-16 record: 57-25; 2016-17 projected record: 57-25

Starting five: A, Bench: C+, Coach: B+

Rank in East: 1st, Overall: 4th

Embed from Getty Images

My only concern is their bench -- it looks a little thin. In the end, they just have to keep LeBron James, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love healthy. It's their conference to win or lose. They pretty much control their own destiny. 

2. Detroit Pistons - 2015-16 record: 44-38; 2016-17 projected record: 46-36

Starting five: B, Bench: B-, Head Coach: A

Rank in East: 5th, Overall: 11th

Ouch. The injury to Reggie Jackson stings. I was high on this team throughout the offseason. Luckily for the Pistons and their fans, Stan Van Gundy is a savvy all-around basketball mind, and he snatched Ish Smith for below his true market value. He will be a relatively productive replacement in the meantime. Having Tobias Harris for an entire season will certainly help, and I've always liked both Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Marcus Morris. Stanley Johnson is a tough kid, as well. 

3. Indiana Pacers - 2015-16 record: 45-37; 2016-17 projected record: 45-37

Starting five: B+, Bench: B, Head Coach: C+

Rank in East: 6th, Overall: 12th

Personnel upgrades in Jeff Teague, Al Jefferson and Thaddeus Young, accompanied by a head coaching downgrade from Frank Vogel to Nate McMillan. Larry Bird should have given Vogel another shot with this new talent pool. 

4. Chicago Bulls - 2015-16 record: 42-40; 2016-17 projected record: 35-47

Starting five: B, Bench: C+, Head Coach: D

Rank in East: 11th, Overall: 25th

Fred Hoiberg is one of the worst head coaches in the NBA, and a starting lineup featuring both Rajon Rondo and Dwyane Wade doesn't have enough perimeter shooting in today's trey-happy league. 

5. Milwaukee Bucks - 2015-16 record: 33-49; 2016-17 projected record: 29-53

Starting five: D+, Bench: B+, Head Coach: C+

Rank in East: 13th, Overall: 27th

This club can't survive the devastating injury to Khris Middleton. They simply need his perimeter shooting and all-around scoring. Head coach Jason Kidd alienates his players by altering his rotation on a nightly basis, and key pieces Greg Monroe and Michael Carter-Williams are already in limbo. Still can't believe they traded their primary scorer, Brandon Knight, for Carter-Williams a couple years back. Head-scratching move at the deadline. 

Southeast Division

1. Orlando Magic - 2015-16 record: 35-47; 2016-17 projected record: 47-35

Starting five: B-, Bench: B+, Head Coach: A

Rank in East: 4th, Overall: 10th

Serge Ibaka has been getting all of the offseason hype, but he's not the sole reason why the Magic are going to make "the leap" this season. It's really a combination of things: The obvious coaching upgrade to Frank Vogel, the combined additions of Ibaka, Bismack Biyombo, D.J. Augustin and Jeff Green, as well as the expected development of both Aaron Gordon and Mario Hezonja. This is a deep team with a lot of similar players, so it will be Vogel's job to manage the minutes correctly. I think he can do it. 

2. Washington Wizards - 2015-16 record: 41-41; 2016-17 projected record: 43-39

Starting five: B, Bench: B-, Head Coach: C-

Rank in East: 7th, Overall: 19th 

Embed from Getty Images

It's very simple for this team: They have to keep John Wall and Bradley Beal healthy, and Markieff Morris out of trouble. I always like when a team sneakily picks up Marcus Thornton for a bench spark. I don't know what to say about the hiring of Scott Brooks, though. The guy is literally a mindless robot. 

3. Charlotte Hornets - 2015-16 record: 48-34; 2016-17 projected record: 41-41

Starting five: C+, Bench: B-, Head Coach: A-

Rank in East: 9th, Overall: 21st

The costly losses of Jeremy Lin, Al Jefferson and Courtney Lee bring the Hornets down a notch. Steve Clifford is an underrated head coach, though. He'll keep them in the back-end playoff race with the Wizards, Knicks, Hawks and Bulls. 

4. Atlanta Hawks - 2015-16 record: 48-34, 2016-17 projected record: 38-44

Starting five: C+, Bench: C+, Head Coach: B+

Rank in East: 10th, Overall: 24th

Jeff Teague downgraded to Dennis Schroder and Al Horford downgraded to Dwight Howard. This organization is no longer heading in the right direction. 

5. Miami Heat - 2015-16 record: 48-34, 2016-17 projected record: 31-51

Starting five: D+, Bench: B+, Head Coach: A

Rank in East: 12th, Overall: 26th

Gone are productive vets Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, Luol Deng and Joe Johnson. What's left isn't a very good team. Erik Spoelstra is their second-most valuable asset behind Hassan Whiteside. 

WESTERN CONFERENCE

Pacific Division

Embed from Getty Images

1. Golden State Warriors - 2015-16 record: 73-9; 2016-17 projected record: 68-14

Starting five: A+, Bench: B+, Head Coach: A-

Rank in West: 1st, Overall: 1st

The Golden State Warriors now have Kevin Durant. Goodbye. 

2. Los Angeles Clippers - 2015-16 record: 53-29; 2016-17 projected record: 63-19

Starting five: A-, Bench: A-, Head Coach: A

Rank in West: 2nd, Overall: 2nd

They need to keep Chris Paul and Blake Griffin healthy, all the way through the playoffs. I like that Doc Rivers keeps fighting off the word "rebuild." The Clips have the talent...they just need to get lucky for once. 

3. Sacramento Kings - 2015-16 record: 33-49; 2016-17 projected record: 43-39

Starting five: B-, Bench: B, Head Coach: A

Rank in West: 7th, Overall: 13th

Finally, the dysfunctional Kings franchise did a few things that make logical sense! They canned toxic George Karl and hired uber-underrated Dave Joerger, and stabilized their shooting guard position with the un-flashy acquisition of Arron Afflalo. I think Joerger can clean up the mess in Sacramento. Furthermore, it's always nice to have talent like DeMarcus Cousins, Rudy Gay and even Darren Collison. 

4. Phoenix Suns - 2015-16 record: 23-59; 2016-17 projected record: 41-41

Starting five: B-, Bench: B+, Head Coach: B-

Rank in West: 9th, Overall: 15th

It's abundantly clear that young head coach Earl Watson loves his job and players. He's probably the most enthusiastic coach in the league at the moment. I like his decision to ask Brandon Knight to carry his second unit, and clearly Devin Booker is a breakout player to watch with the starters. Talk about a mature kid, both on and off the court. Alex Len should also emerge a bit more this season, as Tyson Chandler fades away toward eventual retirement. This is a spunky little team. I think they'll compete for a back-end playoff spot. 

5. Los Angeles Lakers - 2015-16 record: 17-65; 2016-17 projected record: 39-43

Starting five: B-, Bench: C+, Head Coach: A-

Rank in West: 12th, Overall: 18th

The most valuable quality that new head coach Luke Walton brings is the necessary ability to instill confidence in his players. He's going to pump these young kids full of unfounded swag. I've never been a D'Angelo Russell fan, but he did flash some ability to stuff the stat sheet during the second half of the 2015-16 campaign; I've always liked Jordan Clarkson, whereas Julius Randle is in the same boat with Russell; rookie Brandon Ingram needs to be a producer for this second unit, and I think Timofey Mozgov is going to surprise the haters out there. If everything breaks exactly right, the Lakers might stay in the playoff hunt with the Kings, Nuggets, Suns, Thunder, Rockets and Grizzlies. 

Southwest Division

1. San Antonio Spurs - 2015-16 record: 67-15; 2016-17 projected record: 62-20

Starting five: A-, Bench: B+, Head Coach: A+

Rank in West: 3rd, Overall: 3rd

Pau Gasol replaces Tim Duncan (thanks for a jaw-dropping career, Timmy!). Everything else is status quo in Pop's enviable organization. 

2. Dallas Mavericks - 2015-16 record: 42-40; 2016-17 projected record: 50-32

Starting five: B, Bench: B, Head Coach: A+

Rank in West: 6th, Overall: 7th

If Pop retired, Rick Carlisle would immediately ascend to the No. 1 spot on the coaches' chart. The guy just quietly goes about being a basketball genius. How did he make the playoffs in the West with a team that required key contributions from Salah Mejri and Raymond Felton? I'm quite confident that J.J. Barea was their best player at one point. Anyway, Warrior rejects Harrison Barnes and Andrew Bogut have been added to the Mavs mix, and I'm sure Carlisle will figure out the optimal ways to utilize them.  Wesley Matthews should be healthier and more consistently productive this season, and I like Dallas' young bench featuring the entertainingly energetic Justin Anderson, Dwight Powell and newly-acquired Seth Curry. This team isn't bad, and its record will end up even better than it should be. 

3. Houston Rockets - 2015-16 record: 41-41; 2016-17 projected record: 40-42

Starting five: B-, Bench: C+, Head Coach: A-

Rank in West: 11th, Overall: 17th

I like the additions of Mike D'Antoni, Ryan Anderson and Eric Gordon, but how the hell is this team going to defend without Dwight Howard protecting the rim? Howard's clearly on the downside of his career, but the Rockets have little-to-no presence in the paint. They should be among the team leaders in scoring, but they'll be in the bottom five or 10 defensively. A postseason appearance will be a tough sell. 

Embed from Getty Images

4. Memphis Grizzlies - 2015-16 record: 42-40; 2016-17 projected record: 39-43

Starting five: B, Bench: C+, Head Coach: C+

Rank in West: 13th, Overall: 22nd

Why any organization would willingly go from Dave Joerger to David Fizdale is beyond me. Joerger was one of the top overachievers in the game last season; he guided the beat-up and broken-down Grizz into the playoffs with Vince Carter and Matt Barnes leading the way. There's a title for someone who can do that: Miracle-worker. In other news, I'm just over this team. Marc Gasol has always been wildly overrated, Mike Conley hasn't been himself in recent seasons and Chandler Parsons is the Sam Bradford of the NBA: Looks good, sounds good, gets hurt all the time and never produces the way you think he will. I love my boy Zach Randolph, but I hope this team fails. 

5. New Orleans Pelicans - 2015-16 record: 30-52; 2016-17 projected record: 28-54

Starting five: C, Bench: C-, Head Coach: C

Rank in West: 15th, Overall: 29th

Anthony Davis is already banged up, Tyreke Evans has no timetable for return (as usual), Jrue Holiday has some serious family issues to attend to, Ryan Anderson and Eric Gordon are gone, and Alvin Gentry got absolutely nothing out of this team last year. It's looking grim once again. 

Northwest Division

1. Portland Trail Blazers - 2015-16 record: 44-38; 2016-17 projected record: 53-29

Starting five: B+, Bench: B, Head Coach: A

Rank in West: 4th, Overall: 5th

I've said this before and I'll say it again: The Blazers are the mini-Warriors. Think about it. You have the young, talented, shot-happy backcourt of Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum (their version of The Splash Brothers); Al-Farouq Aminu, the swingman who does a little bit of everything (Draymond), and a bunch of long, lanky, athletic hustlers who do whatever they can to help the team. For the Blazers that's Mason Plumlee, Ed Davis and Moe Harkless, and for the Warriors that's Andre Iguodala, Shaun Livingston and used to be Leandro Barbosa. Both teams feature head coaches who encourage their guys to play without fear, the severely-underrated Terry Stotts and of course, Steve Kerr. The Blazers even picked up Evan Turner who, I promise you, is going to be used exactly like Iguodala. Copycatting is real. 

2. Minnesota Timberwolves - 2015-16 record: 29-53; 2016-17 projected record: 51-31

Starting five: B+, Bench: B, Head Coach: A

Rank in West: 5th, Overall: 6th

Embed from Getty Images

I can't possibly fathom a coaching transition more influential than Sam Mitchell to Tom Thibodeau. Instead of developing his young, talented players, Mitchell was starting washed-up vets like Kevin Garnett and Tayshaun Prince. He literally had no idea what he was doing (kind of like Todd Bowles for my Jets). With "Thibs" now at the helm, it's all very simple: The right guys are going to play, they will exert defensive effort and young players will reach their potential. I think it'll be a quick and impressive transition. 

3. Denver Nuggets - 2015-16 record: 33-49; 2016-17 projected record: 42-40

Starting five: B, Bench: B, Head Coach: B-

Rank in West: 8th, Overall: 14th

I haven't had anything nice to say about the Nuggets for a long, long time, but things finally appear to be looking up for them. Mike Malone was surprisingly ineffective his first year on the job, but he should be able to turn it around with established players like Danilo Gallinari and Kenneth Faried, and rising contributors such as Emmanuel Mudiay, Nikola Jokic, Jusuf Nurkic and Gary Harris. Their talent pool has gradually expanded and they've been doing things the right way, so hopefully they'll be rewarded. It'll be a dogfight for the 8-seed. 

4. Oklahoma City Thunder - 2015-16 record: 55-27; 2016-17 projected record: 41-41

Starting five: A-, Bench: C-, Head Coach: B-

Rank in West: 10th, Overall: 16th

My gut tells me the Thunder will be better than my ranking system suggests. I have an inordinate amount of faith in Russell Westbrook, and I like OKC's bigs, Steven Adams and Enes Kanter. However, their bench looks crappy, I wasn't particularly impressed by Billy Donovan in year one and I'm up in the air on Victor Oladipo. He has talent, but I question his effort. He may not mesh with Russ and his balls-to-the-wall style. This is a difficult team to gauge. 

5. Utah Jazz - 2015-16 record: 40-42; 2016-17 projected record: 34-48

Starting five: C+, Bench: B, Head Coach: B-

Rank in West: 14th, Overall: 23rd

A bunch of mediocre players playing for a mediocre coach, and they won't be able to overachieve without Gordon Hayward at 100 percent. 

THE POSTSEASON

Eastern Conference Finals:  Cleveland Cavs over Toronto Raptors, 4-2

Western Conference Finals:  Golden State Warriors over Los Angeles Clippers, 4-2

NBA FINALS: GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS OVER CLEVELAND CAVS, 4-2

As always, all questions, comments and complaints are welcome. Thanks for reading!

Late-Night Boredom Reviews: The Shallows, The Walk and The Night Before

Embed from Getty Images

Anyone who has experience with adult relationships knows that most couples are split into two, distinct classifications: The Early Bird and The Night Owl. In my own personal relationship, my beautiful girlfriend is The Early Bird, and I'm The Night Owl. That means when she passes out around 10 p.m., I'm usually awake watching movies. 

And I'm certain I'm not the only one. So "Late-Night Boredom Reviews," as always, are dedicated to all of the lovers who stay up looking for random films to watch. 

THE WALK (2015)

Embed from Getty Images

The Walk is based on the true story of Philippe Petit (Gordon-Levitt), a high-wire artist who decided it would be a good idea to walk from one Twin Tower to the other back in 1974. The idea alone is fascinating; but the film takes a little too long to catch its footing. 

Gordon-Levitt is game and energetic as Petit, but the primary problem with his casting is that we know he isn't a Frenchman. That fact was immediately distracting to me; but Gordon-Levitt is so persistent that, thankfully, the distraction fades a bit as the movie progresses. As a man, Petit is a somewhat annoying, one-trick pony with little regard for others, so it's often difficult to care about him throughout the expository first half of the film.

However, Robert Zemeckis' wizardry in special effects elevates the second half and produces a number of exhilarating highs. For our casual moviegoers, Zemeckis is best known for directing smash hits such as Back to the Future, Forrest Gump and Cast Away. I would also recommend checking out his extraordinary effects in the Jodie Foster vehicle, Contact (1997). Once "The Walk" shifts away from Petit's background and toward the dogged pursuit of his dream, the momentum picks up and we begin to feel the magnitude of the stakes. 

Petit's plan -- which is often referred to as "The Coup" -- requires a handful of "accomplices," namely his girlfriend Annie (a likable Charlotte Le Bon), and a few of their friends. Of the supporting men, the only performance worth noting is that of James Badge Dale (whom you may recognize as the man who murdered Leonardo DiCaprio in The Departed). Dale, who was intentionally bland in The Departed, showcases a whole 'nother side here: He's versatile, funny and injects necessary energy into an otherwise forgettable ensemble. 

In the end, the strength of "The Walk" is, well, the walk itself. WARNING: If you have a perfectly-reasonable fear of heights (like me), the final half-hour of this film may be extremely hard to stomach. Let's just say that I'm glad I saw this in my bedroom on Starz, as opposed to an IMAX 3-D theater. I probably would have passed out. The climax is something I haven't seen before; so that's a victory in itself. 

** JOHNNY FRO'S RATING:  7 out of 10 **

THE SHALLOWS (2016)

Embed from Getty Images

I'm generally a sucker for ensembles overstuffed with A-list stars, so it's a bit abnormal for me to review consecutive films that revolve around one, single lead. "JGL" in The Walk, and now the lovely Ms. Lively (or should we say, Mrs. Reynolds?) in The Shallows. 

This film paints itself into a weird little corner; essentially, if you've seen the trailer, then you've seen the movie. One could reasonably think, given that information, that The Shallows should instantaneously be dismissed as cookie-cutter crap. And yet, somehow, it isn't. It's actually quite entertaining. 

Story wise, The Shallows is exactly what you think it is: Nancy (Lively) wants to get away from the world, so she seeks out a secluded beach for some peaceful surfing. Unfortunately, there's nothing peaceful about a f--king vicious shark attack. Nancy ends up stranded at sea, bouncing between rocks and buoys in a spirited effort to stay alive long enough for someone to find her. 

Yes, it's Cast Away with Lively's sexy body replacing Tom Hanks' hairy chest. She even has a sidekick like Wilson; hers is a loyal, wounded bird. The bird, like Wilson, is both cute and likable. 

I don't usually support movies that blatantly borrow from others, but The Shallows does enough visually and conceptually to distinguish itself as a standalone work. The fun of the film is watching Nancy's ingenuity in staying one step ahead of the unbelievably massive shark, which looks real to me (great CGI). Collet-Serra gives us a gorgeous location and some fancy directorial flourishes, while Lively carries the action with aplomb. 

The CGI is clean, the action is pulse-pounding and the editing is economical. The Shallows is a fun film if you watch it for what it is. 

** JOHNNY FRO'S RATING:  7.5 out of 10 **

THE NIGHT BEFORE (2015)

Embed from Getty Images

Within the first minute or two of The Night Before, I found myself thinking, this is going to be my kind of movie. We have Seth Rogen and JGL, two of my absolute favorite people in Hollywood, and a story that elicits some comparisons to my own personal life. The older I get, the more I realize that our favorite movies are those that speak to us at particular stages of our lives. 

But alas, The Night Before is not going to become one of my faves.  The setup is intriguing and well thought out -- three lifelong friends, Ethan (JGL), Isaac (Rogen) and Chris (Anthony Mackie) confront the end of a holiday tradition as they crossover into adulthood -- but the delivery just isn't there. The first 45 minutes or so are very funny, but Jonathan Levine (who wrote the successful Warm Bodies and directed the wonderful 50/50) starts running out of ideas around the midway point. 

The trio of leads exhibit completely believable chemistry, but their individual storylines burn out like Christmas Eve candles. We're waiting for Playstation 4 under the tree, and instead we get like, GameCube or Dreamcast. 

Nevertheless, The Night Before has its heart in the right place, and laughs are generated by Chris' "Social Media Game" and steroid use, as well as Isaac's unsuspected battle with a number of extremely potent drugs. Rogen and Mackie are the comic relief, as JGL holds down the emotional center of the story. 

Lizzy Caplan and Gordon-Levitt have a lovely ease to their romantic chemistry; the latter also paired well with fellow brunettes Zooey Deschanel (500 Days of Summer) and Anna Kendrick (50/50) in the past. This is a likable guy matched with equally likable women. It's a safe and logical Hollywood formula. 

The Night Before starts strong and ends pretty well, but stumbles through the middle innings. It's still funny at times and ultimately worth seeing. 

** JOHNNY FRO'S RATING:  7 out of 10 **

Many thanks for joining me for the Grand Opening of "Late-Night Boredom." Here's a list of possible reviews to come:

10 Cloverfield Lane (2016)

The Mexican (2001)

Atari: Game Over (2014)

Deadpool (2016)

Ghost World (2001)

Ratatouille (2007)

The Score (2001)

The Revenant (2015)

Untraceable (2008)

The Cabin in the Woods (2012)

A Perfect Murder (1998)

Sisters (2015)

Backdraft (1991)

The Royal Tenenbaums (2001)

And many more...

Sports Illustrated Doesn't Know Anything About Basketball

Embed from Getty Images

I happened to stumble upon reference to Sports Illustrated's Top 100 NBA Players when I was reading about my rebuilding Nets in the NY Post, and boy, was I astonished by SI's utter lack of knowledge and common sense. Here are some of their most appalling errors:

1. Rudy Gobert (#33) is better than Kemba Walker (#36)?

This one's real simple: Kemba single-handedly carried his Hornets to an overachieving 48-34 campaign and subsequent playoff appearance, while Gobert was unable to help his underachieving Jazz scrape out a postseason position in the weakest bottom of the Western Conference in decades. 

The 8-seed was up for grabs throughout the year, and yet Gobert, who SI apparently believes is one of the best players in the game, was unable to do anything to get his Jazz past the dysfunctional Rockets, who had no business being in the playoffs. The Rockets' unhappy family was a running joke around the league, and yet Gobert was unable to team with Gordon Hayward (#27?) and Derrick Favors (#28?) to outplay them. Someone on the SI staff is a big-time Jazz fan. 

Kemba Walker is the type of electric offensive performer who can carry a stagnant offense. Gobert is a long, lanky role player who blocks shots. These two guys aren't even in the same tier. 

2. DeAndre Jordan (#20) is better than Damian Lillard (#21), Carmelo Anthony (#24) and Kyrie Irving (#25)?

I'm already noticing an alarming trend; aren't you? SI clearly places zero weight on offense. Here's the problem with that: When Chris Paul and Blake Griffin went down for the Clippers in the postseason, was DeAndre Jordan able to carry them past the Blazers' high-powered offense?

Embed from Getty Images

No, as a matter of fact, they blew a commanding 2-0 series lead. Don't get me wrong, every team needs effective role players to complement their stars, but DeAndre Jordan simply cannot carry you when you're in need. You can't give him the ball and ask him to bail out your struggling offense. He's simply not capable of creating for himself or his teammates on the offensive end. Now, not all role players need to be scorers, but if you're ranked 20th overall, you better have an offensive repertoire. 

Think about SI's lack of logic here -- Kyrie Irving was the hero of the NBA Finals, showcasing jaw-dropping, showstopping offensive ability under the highest possible degree of pressure, yet he's ranked lower than DeAndre, who was bounced from the playoffs without so much as a whimper. There's a disconnect here. 

3. Derrick Favors (#28) is better than Andre Drummond (#29)?

One guy (Favors) was a role player on a boring, below-average team that missed the playoffs, and the other (Drummond) is the best rebounder in the world and was a legitimate MVP candidate on one of the exciting surprise playoff teams of the extremely competitive Eastern Conference. Moving on. 

4. Dwight Howard (#34) is better than Brook Lopez (#38), Isaiah Thomas (#45) and DeMar DeRozan (#46)?

Same story here -- defense over offense -- but SI is clearly missing the ultimate point:

Dwight Howard is finished physically. He's had a tremendous NBA career as a dominant rebounder and shotblocker, but he simply cannot move or play like he used to. I've always been a Howard supporter, but you're looking at 10 points and 12 rebounds per game here if you push him to his absolute limit. 

Lopez, on the other hand, is in his prime and one of the top three offensive centers in the world (his block totals also surprise a lot of people), while Thomas and DeRozan carry Eastern playoff offenses. These guys can still bounce around and carry their teams, while Dwight struggles to get up and down the court. Too many games and injuries for that old vet. 

Embed from Getty Images

5. Khris Middleton (#39) is better than Giannis Antetokounmpo (#48)?

Ask any Bucks fan, player or even head coach Jason Kidd who the best player on their team is, and they will all say Giannis Antetokounmpo. 

Well...they might say "The Greek Freak" because they can't pronounce his name. 

Regardless, Giannis is an all-around threat on the court, with the ability to dribble-drive, penetrate, score in the midrange, distribute, effectively guard multiple positions and control the game on both ends of the floor. He's an all-world talent. Khris Middleton is a good shooter. 

6. Steven Adams (#40) is better than Pau Gasol (#41) and C.J. McCollum (#50)?

Talk about overreacting to a decent postseason showing. I like to look closely at the playoffs as well, but a good run of stat lines doesn't change a player's repertoire or "game." Steven Adams is a garbage man. His finishing is undoubtedly improving around the rim, but he's another guy who essentially does dirty work in the paint. These guys are not rare; just look at SI's list: Cody Zeller (94), Mason Plumlee (93), Bismack Biyombo (91), Amir Johnson (86), Nerlens Noel (84), Andrew Bogut (83), Robin Lopez (82), Clint Capela (79), Ian Mahinmi (76), Marcin Gortat (55), Tristan Thompson (52), Serge Ibaka (42), Dwight Howard (34), Rudy Gobert (33), Derrick Favors (28), Marc Gasol (22) and Al Horford (18). 

I would argue that every single one of those bigs is severely overrated on SI's list. If you are big and can stand near the rim, Sports Illustrated loves you. They have Manute Bol as the #1 ranked player of all time. 

Just think about Adams in comparison to Pau...Pau is better at the foul line, in the midrange, from three and with his back to the basket. He's also a far superior playmaker and distributor, with coach-like acumen on the floor. He can lead your team when it is struggling. He can help a club find its rhythm. Steven Adams can pick up a loose ball. 

Embed from Getty Images 

7. Kyrie Irving is #25 and Tristan Thompson is #52? Tristan Thompson is better than Bradley Beal, Andrew Wiggins and Nikola Vucevic?

There's no way Kyrie and Tristan should be that close in the rankings. The inconsistency in SI's ranking system is laughable. I'm assuming Tristan received an awful lot of extra credit for his playoff contributions, so why doesn't Kyrie receive any? They are on the same team, they both won titles, Kyrie is a superstar and Tristan is a role player who snatches occasional offensive rebounds. 

Seriously, SI, hustle is important, but skill is FAR more important. Get your priorities straight. I could go on for days, but I don't get paid for this. 

You get the idea -- Sports Illustrated thinks picking up a loose ball is more important than putting the ball through the hoop. Sound logic, geniuses.

2016 NFL Preseason Predictions: Will Cam and the Panthers Avenge Their Super Bowl Loss?

Embed from Getty Images

Since my Mets have been making me sick all summer, you can imagine how eager I am to get the NFL regular season underway. Last year's predictions had some bright spots, as I correctly predicted the exact records of the Jets, Steelers, Jaguars, Eagles, Bears, Bucs and Falcons. But what's past is prologue, so let's move on to the 2016-17 NFL season...

AFC EAST

4. Miami Dolphins (7-9):  New head coach Adam Gase is expected to be a significant upgrade over clueless Joe Philbin, but you'll never sell me on Ryan Tannehill, and I wasn't particularly impressed by their offseason.

The Dolphins front office had an obvious plan: Acquire post-prime veterans who could still produce, while helping some of the youngsters along in their development. Those vets are Arian Foster, Mario Williams, Kiko Alonso and Byron Maxwell. I think Foster can still be effective, but he can never stay on the field; Williams' effort level has been questioned in recent years, so that doesn't bode well next to Ndamukong Suh; Alonso is oft-injured and has never lived up to the hype, and Maxwell generally rates as one of the worst corners in defensive metrics. All that, and they're still waiting for DeVante Parker to emerge in their passing attack. That day may never come. The same goes for Jay Ajayi in their running game. Miami's schedule isn't easy, either. 

3. Buffalo Bills (8-8):  As always, team success boils down to health. This team boasts a very talented offensive trio in Tyrod Taylor, LeSean McCoy and Sammy Watkins, but all three battled various injuries throughout the 2015 campaign. If those guys can operate at close to 100 percent, Buffalo has a shot to be better than 8-8. 

On the flip side, losing star NT Marcell Dareus for the early portion of the season surely stings. Also, when the going gets tough, HC Rex Ryan can be a deer in headlights on the sidelines. He's just not as prepared as most other NFL head coaches. 

Embed from Getty Images

2. New England Patriots (9-7):  I'm finally pulling the trigger! I'm always realistic about my Jets, so I consistently predict them to finish behind the Pats, but not this time. This time, I think Bill Belichick is putting TOO much faith in his "system" (which is essentially finding all of the dirtiest ways to cheat). This time, Tom Brady actually is suspended for the first four games of the season, and temporary replacement Jimmy Garoppolo has to be concerned about the injuries to Julian Edelman, Dion Lewis and Danny Amendola. Who will be on the field during Garoppolo's four starts? Who will be playing hurt? Who will be inactive?

The Pats have simply become too cocky for their own good. Even if Edelman and Amendola do play, they'll be at far less than 100 percent, and the organization is talking about journeyman Chris Hogan like he's the second coming of Jordy Nelson. Pleaseeee, people. Let's see how good a lifetime WR4 looks with Garoppolo under center. In addition, Belichick's faith in his program allowed him to dismiss star DE Chandler Jones without batting an eye. I personally felt he was New England's most impactful defensive player. 

In the end, I do believe in Belichick and Brady's "system." I'm not the kind of guy who denies obvious results. But this time, with the 9th toughest schedule and a possible 1-3 start without Brady, I don't think they have enough talent to win the division. It's that simple. 

1. New York Jets (9-7):  All right, so I'm copping out a little. I'm giving my Jets the tiebreaker for the AFC East crown, but our brutal opening schedule doesn't allow me to predict 10 or 11 wins. The Jets open up vs. Bengals, @ Bills, @ Chiefs, v. Seahawks, @ Steelers then @ Cardinals. 

ARE YOU F'N KIDDING ME?? SERIOUSLY??? HOW IS THAT FAIR???? I'M CONVINCED THAT BOTH THE NFL AND GOD HATE THE JETS. 

So, with that, there's a very good chance the Jets open at 3-3, or perhaps even 2-4. I never like falling behind, but this Jets roster has the pure talent to recover and persevere. It starts with our offensive skill players: Brandon Marshall, Eric Decker, Matt Forte, Bilal Powell and Quincy Enunwa. Marshall and Decker are two of the best and most consistent wide receivers in the world, Forte and Powell are both two-way threats in the rushing attack, and Enunwa's explosiveness makes him a major X-factor for Chan Gailey's intricately designed offense. 

Ryan Fitzpatrick has never been a great NFL quarterback, but he's always played his best with Gailey drawing up the X's and O's. As the old saying goes, they're a match made in heaven. I'm still not a true believer in Fitz, but GM Mike Maccagnan's talent pool is perfectly catered to his veteran quarterback's needs. Fitz will post another strong statistical season if his offensive line protects well enough. 

Defensively, Gang Green will miss NT Damon "Snacks" Harrison and top LB Demario Davis. Darrelle Revis and David Harris are declining a bit in their old age, so upstarts Marcus Williams and Lorenzo Mauldin will have to step up. 

In all honesty, the Jets are one of the most talented all-around teams in the NFL. The only thing holding them back will be their ridiculously unfair schedule.

AFC NORTH

4. Cleveland Browns (6-10):  Preseason Hype Train, comin' through...Robert Griffin III looks sharp in the early going, but I'm calling his Sam Bradford bluff here. Bradford set the world on fire in the preseason last year, but I correctly predicted that it was all smoke and mirrors (see Bradford's synopsis at #25. Nailed it.). I'll admit I'd probably take Griffin over Bradford right now, but I'd still rather see steady veteran Josh McCown under center for Hue Jackson's Browns. 

Embed from Getty Images

Cleveland has some interesting offensive personnel. Rookie WR Corey Coleman is generating some early hype, converted QB Terrelle Pryor has been looking like Teddy Ginn on go routes, Josh Gordon is due back for game 5, Duke Johnson is a splendid receiver out of the backfield and Gary Barnidge was a first tier tight end last season. 

This offense can't really hit its peak without Gordon, but I think McCown could do some serious damage with this unit beginning in game 5. I don't think Griffin can maximize what he has here. As the recently married Sam Ytuarte said, "It will boil down to what Griffin does after his first terrible game." I agree, and I don't think Griffin has the necessary mental toughness at this point. 

Defensively, this club is always hit or miss. They're never a dominant unit, but they surprise you with strong performances at times. Obviously they need to keep CB1 Joe Haden healthy, for once. 

3. Baltimore Ravens (8-8):  Last year I called out GM Ozzie Newsome for hanging Joe Flacco out to dry. He failed to provide "Joe Cool" with the weapons necessary to compete with the Steelers and Bengals. This season things have improved with the additions of Mike Wallace (I like his skillset in connection with Flacco's passing tendencies) and Ben Watson, but these aren't players who change the dynamics of an organization that is treading water. 

This team is mediocre, and adding FS Eric Weddle after his prime shows that Newsome is still trying to work with his struggling, over-the-hill core. After this middling season, the Ravens will likely need a roster overhaul and youth infusion. 

2. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7):  I really wanted to go 8-8 here, but in the end the superstar combo of Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown squeezes another win out of me. Too many question marks for this organization right now: Martavis Bryant is suspended for the season, Le'Veon Bell is suspended for the first three games, newly acquired TE Ladarius Green may have to retire, and can they keep Big Ben and C Maurkice Pouncey on the field for an entire season? They may simply be over the hill in terms of health. 

On the bright side, "The Steel Curtain" has rebounded in the past year and a half. Once one of the most consistently dominant defenses in the NFL, Pittsburgh fell to the bottom half of the league after the primes of Troy Polamalu, Casey Hampton, LaMarr Woodley and James Harrison (though the latter has surely revived himself with the assistance of PEDs). Now things are beginning to look up again, thanks in part to the outstanding linebacker tandem of Lawrence Timmons and Ryan Shazier. 

Obviously I'd like this team a lot better if they had Ben, Le'Veon, AB, Martavis and Ladarius out there at the same time, but that just isn't going to happen. Tread lightly with expectations, here. 

1. Cincinnati Bengals (9-7):  The Bengals are backing into a first place prediction here -- I don't trust RGIII and Josh Gordon, the Ravens are too mediocre and the Steelers are too injury prone. And yes, like the AFC East, this is another division tiebreaker scenario. 

I wasn't impressed by Cincinnati's offseason, and I think Andy Dalton will miss the combo of Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu more than the front office realizes. I expect Jones and Sanu to perform well in Detroit and Atlanta, respectively. In the past they have been viewed as talented guys who never quite reached their full potential, but at the same time their raw talent drew some defensive attention away from the great A.J. Green. Now Brandon LaFell and rookie Tyler Boyd are expected to fill those roles, and I'm not quite as confident in them. 

Also, obviously, Tyler Eifert's injury and LB Vontaze Burfict's suspension are serious concerns. The entire AFC North is plagued by fortune-changing question marks. 

AFC SOUTH

4. Tennessee Titans (6-10):  It pains me to rank the Titans so low because, as many of you know, I'm a big Marcus Mariota guy. I think if you give him weapons like Blake Bortles has in Jacksonville, you end up with a superstar quarterback with some big-time numbers. But alas, Mariota's starting wideouts are Rishard Matthews and Tajae Sharpe. Matthews is an interesting pick-up from the Dolphins, but perhaps Tennessee's brass is anointing him a WR1 a bit too quickly. This offense will improve, but not nearly enough. 

Defensively this squad is similar to the Browns. Sometimes they wow you with a lights out performance, but generally you can pick them apart. 

3. Houston Texans (7-9):  I'm not buying into Brock Osweiler. I think the Texans organization has painted itself into a corner here. The funny thing is that they would have been better off forgetting about Osweiler and Brian Hoyer, and instead sticking with Ryan Fitzpatrick from a few years ago. I think Fitz could take better advantage of DeAndre Hopkins and Lamar Miller than Osweiler ultimately will. 

We'll also have to wait and see how JJ Watt recovers from his back surgery. 

2. Indianapolis Colts (9-7):  Everyone knows I'm not an Andrew Luck guy, but he has to bounce back a bit this season. T.Y. Hilton, Donte Moncrief and Phillip Dorsett form a solid WR trio, and TE Dwayne Allen is always a contributor when healthy. Obviously people will be down on Luck after last season's debacle, so he'll play with something to prove this year. That type of motivation is always worth considering. Dorsett should also improve without vet Andre Johnson stealing some of his WR3 looks. 

I'm never fully committed to this team because I think Chuck Pagano is a fraud from a coaching standpoint. He's a nice guy, but his limited football intelligence holds this organization back. 

Embed from Getty Images

1. Jacksonville Jaguars (10-6):  Twelve teams in and I'm predicting the Jacksonville Jaguars for the most wins? Never thought I'd see the day, but this club is stacked with super talented players in their primes. It feels like their time is now. 

Blake Bortles impressed me last season despite a stupid name and noodly arm, thanks in large part to Allen Robinson, Allen Hurns, Julius Thomas and T.J. Yeldon. As I noted in the caption above, "The Allens" are easily one of the top 3 receiver combos in the game (along with the Jets and Broncos), Thomas is a gifted tight end who really started to find his rhythm with Bortles toward the end of last year, and Yeldon was a bouncy rookie back who should have received more touches (Toby Gerhart inexplicably stole goal line carries and Denard Robinson swiped midfield work). 

This season we can add RB Chris Ivory and WR Marqise Lee (back from injury) to the mix, and there's no question the Jags will boast one of most prolific offenses in the league. 

Defensively, don't sleep on this group. Highly-touted draft pick DE Dante Fowler is finally healthy, and star FS Tashaun Gipson has defected from Cleveland. The argument could be made that Gipson was the Browns best individual player. MLB Paul Posluszny will provide much needed veteran leadership, and I think ridiculously explosive LB Telvin Smith will be one of the top 5 defensive players in the world. 

HC Gus Bradley has to capitalize now, while Jacksonville has a light schedule and many of his studs are reaching their athletic peaks.

AFC WEST

4. Kansas City Chiefs (7-9):  Right off the bat, I don't like that both Justin Houston and Tamba Hali are injured. Andy Reid and Alex Smith's Chiefs are the type of ball management team that needs to win close games, and often those tight wins can be stolen by Houston and Hali's relentless pass rush.

And clearly, more than anything else, Kansas City needs to keep Jamaal Charles on the field. He's one of my favorite players to watch, but his health is really a year-to-year thing. We all feel like he could go down at any time because history has proven that to be true. If everything breaks right they can go 9-7, but I just don't feel like it will. 

3. San Diego Chargers (7-9):  They'll bounce back a bit with the return of Keenan Allen, the addition of burner Travis Benjamin and improved performance from Melvin Gordon. Their defense will get picked apart, as usual. 

Embed from Getty Images

2. Oakland Raiders (10-6):  Here is a team that is very similar to the aforementioned Jaguars. Oakland has been showing gradual improvement throughout the young Derek Carr era, thanks to meticulous work by GM Reggie McKenzie. 

Michael Crabtree proved to be an excellent investment last season, and core pieces like RB Latavius Murray, WRs Amari Cooper and Seth Roberts, and superstar LBs Malcolm Smith and Khalil Mack have been accumulated over the years. This offseason brings productive veterans, CB Sean Smith and FS Reggie Nelson, to Oakland's defensive backfield. 

Clearly, this organization wants to win now. And they just might. 

1. Denver Broncos (11-5):  The defending Super Bowl champs always have to worry about a possible hangover, but this is still the most talented all-around team in the conference. Mark Sanchez and Trevor Siemian are currently locked in a QB battle -- which I expect Sanchez to win -- but Denver proved that quarterback play didn't really matter last season. Peyton Manning was one of the worst statistical performers in the NFL last year, and yet the Broncos brought home the title. If Denver leaves Sanchez alone and lets him do his thing, he should be perfectly fine with the help of Pro Bowlers Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders. 

Defensively, you know the deal. Some pundits consider Von Miller the best overall player in football, while Chris Harris and Aqib Talib form a perfect combination at the corner position. Veteran DeMarcus Ware is somewhat of a health concern this season, but Denver's D has other studs like DE Derek Wolfe, NT Sylvester Williams, LB Brandon Marshall and SS T.J. Ward around to pick up the potential slack. 

John Elway's Broncos are still the team to beat in the AFC. 

NFC EAST

4. Philadelphia Eagles (4-12):  You know that phenomenon when everyone is down on a particular team, then they shock the world and break out for a big season? 

Well, the Eagles aren't going to be that type of team. Everyone thinks they suck, and they do. Former HC and quasi-GM Chip Kelly slowly dismantled the talent on this roster, parting ways with quality players like LeSean McCoy, Jeremy Maclin and DeSean Jackson. He hasn't left new HC Doug Pederson with much -- it's never good when you can make a plausible argument that Darren Sproles is the best player on an NFL team. I personally happen to like Sproles; but you get my point. 

Sam Bradford is an absolute joke, Jordan Matthews is coming into the season banged up, Nelson Agholor looks like another Chip bust and this defense is suspect, if I'm being polite. It's gonna be a longggg year in Philly. Yikes. 

3. Dallas Cowboys (9-7):  I like the talent pool on Jerry Jones' team, but my gut tells me Tony Romo won't be able to stay healthy. Like Ben Roethlisberger in Pittsburgh, Romo may simply be past the point of playing a full 16-game season. These are two veteran warriors who have taken a ridiculous number of vicious hits over the years. Unfortunately, Dallas will need Romo for the entirety of the season because the Redskins and Giants look like upper echelon NFC teams. 

Embed from Getty Images

The good news is that explosive rookie Ezekiel Elliott is expected to provide a major lift in the ground game, and Dez Bryant looks healthy thus far in the preseason. The Dallas D will be so-so, as usual. 

2. Washington Redskins (10-6):  I think HC Jay Gruden has finally figured things out in Washington. Some pundits have suggested that last season was a fluke, but I have some faith in the program that Gruden is building. 

From a pure skillset standpoint, I was never a Kirk Cousins fan, but Gruden has found a way to make him more efficient and less of a reckless gunslinger. He has veterans DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon on the outside, with solid slot man Jamison Crowder and star TE Jordan Reed always available in the middle of the field. RB2 Chris Thompson also provides a nice lift as an excellent receiver out of the backfield. Cousins has been given the proper accommodations to succeed, with a strong mix of talent and savvy coaching. 

Defensively, helloooo Josh Norman. That was a shock, wasn't it? To me, that was one of the top 2 or 3 stories of the offseason. An elite player at his position leaving a 15-1 team in his prime. Carolina probably should have just overpaid a bit. Rather overpay Norman than let him go to a legitimate conference contender like the 'Skins. Hopefully the Panthers aren't getting too cocky about their "system" over there; beginning to think they can let stars walk because they're better prepared than other teams. 

Here's a little secret: The best system is having more talented players than your competitors. 

This defense looks decent, but I'd like to see them re-sign FS Dashon Goldson if they have the cap room. They'd have one of the top 5 defensive backfields in the NFL if they do. 

1. New York Giants (10-6):  Karma is real, don't you think? The G-Men famously had some freaky plays during their two Super Bowl runs of the Eli Manning era, but when things aren't going well for them in a given season, they go realllly bad. Like, painfully bad. I feel like the Giants have lost more excruciatingly close regular season games in the past three seasons than any other team. Giants fans, you'll back me up on that, right?

Well, this year, I have a good feeling. DT Damon Harrison and CB Janoris Jenkins were totally appropriate offseason signings, and I think rookie Sterling Shepard can be the WR2 the organization has been looking for throughout Victor Cruz's perpetual struggle to get healthy (doesn't seem like that day will ever actually come; he's probably finished). 

This offense can reach its full potential if Eli gets receiving contributions from RB Shane Vereen, TE Will Tye and WR3 Dwayne Harris. One thing I always give Eli credit for is trusting his open targets, regardless of their individual skill level (remember Preston Parker?). And I agree with that philosophy -- if an opposing team wants to leave a professional receiver or tight end wide open, you have to throw them the ball. It's the right play. If they continue to screw up easy plays, the organization will obviously take note and move on from the player, as was the case with Parker. Now Eli should be able to successfully spread the ball around to Shepard, Harris, Vereen and of course, the amazing Odell Beckham, Jr. If you don't like watching him play, then you don't like football. 

The Giants have a very easy schedule, so my only hesitation is rookie HC Ben McAdoo. I easily could have predicted 11 wins here, but I'm shaving one off for head coaching inexperience. Nevertheless, the G-Men get the tiebreaker in this division. 

NFC NORTH

4. Chicago Bears (6-10): Has John Fox been a career-long fluke? For the most part, the guy has always been successful as a head coach, but is he like Chuck Pagano in that he's more of a motivator than a football genius? Personally, I'd rather my coach be an X's and O's genius like Belichick, Bruce Arians, Mike McCarthy or Gruden. Rah-rah guys are a dime a dozen. 

Anyway, as always, you can't win with Jay Cutler. Brings everyone down around him. The team has been fighting incessantly during practice. Cutler is the furthest thing from a fearless leader since Ryan Leaf. 

I also dislike some of the early reports on WR Kevin White. His supporters have always played up his supreme athleticism, but organizational insiders keep saying that he's "really raw" as a route runner. I just don't think the Bears can afford to be super patient with a developing receiver. Since they locked Cutler up long-term and he's running out of prime, they really need their receivers to be ready now. If they couldn't win with Alshon Jeffery and Brandon Marshall, how are they going to win now? They don't even have TE Martellus Bennett anymore. 

The only reason I'm giving them 6 wins is because they are tied for the second-easiest schedule in the NFL. 

3. Detroit Lions (7-9):  Maybe there will be a little addition by subtraction here. Of course everyone's initial reaction is, "Calvin Johnson retired unexpectedly? This team is really gonna suck!" But I'm not so sure. Maybe Matthew Stafford will commit more to full vision of the field, spreading the ball around to Marvin Jones, Golden Tate, speedy rookie T.J. Jones, Eric Ebron (if healthy) and elite receiving back, Theo Riddick. They also hope RB Ameer Abdullah will show a little more this season as well. 

Of course this defense is led by the monster known as "Ziggy" Ansah. Don't get on his bad side. Detroit also has quality defenders like Haloti Ngata, CB Darius Slay, FS Glover Quin and returning LB DeAndre Levy. If healthy, Levy is one of my favorite linebackers in the league, up there with Telvin Smith of the Jags and Malcolm Smith of the Raiders. 

Again, this is another squad with a very easy schedule. 

2. Minnesota Vikings (9-7):  Blair Walsh. Whyyyyy, Blair Walsh? I'm far from a Vikings fan in any way, shape or form, but how could you not feel bad for their die-hard fans? What a travesty that was. What could have been...

Now -- like the Redskins in the NFC East -- because they finished 1st in their division last season, the Vikings wind up with a more difficult schedule than their division rivals. It isn't one of the hardest schedules in the league, but it could definitely be the difference between Minnesota and Green Bay. We know they're close to begin with.

Embed from Getty Images

Rookie WR Laquon Treadwell will hopefully complement WR1 Stefon Diggs well, but there isn't much else to report. HC Mike Zimmer, one of the best in the game, likes his team. He has confidence in this group, but this season they have targets on their backs. Can't fly under the radar this time around. I'm not sure 9 wins will be enough.

1. Green Bay Packers (12-4):  Jordy Nelson is back, Eddie Lacy is in shape and they have the easiest schedule in the NFL? Shiiiiiiiiit. Need I say more?

NFC SOUTH

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-10):  Jameis Winston, Doug Martin and Mike Evans usually get a sizable portion of this team's press, but Tampa Bay's super talented defense is actually its strength. The Bucs have 6 top tier defenders in DT Gerald McCoy, LBs Lavonte David, Daryl Smith and Kwon Alexander, CB Brent Grimes and DE Robert Ayers. 

The Bucs certainly boast one of the most talented defenses in the game, but unfortunately their scheduling makes no sense. Can you explain this to me? How could the Panthers, who went 15-1, have an easier schedule than the Bucs when they are in the same division? Sometimes the NFL just doesn't make sense to me. 

So my issues with Tampa are its brutal schedule, turnovers from Winston, an improbable repeat campaign from Martin and the age and ineffectiveness of Vincent Jackson. This club has talent, but it isn't their time yet. 

3. Atlanta Falcons (7-9):  Did anyone else notice that last year's Falcons had the exact same season as the Broncos when they initially hired Josh McDaniels as their head coach? Atlanta hired Dan Quinn, who had been a successful coordinator for one of the league's elite teams (Seahawks), which is exactly what the Broncos did when they hired McDaniels (Patriots). Both teams proceeded to sprint out to 5-0 records under their new head coaches, then the wheels fell off and they ended up missing the playoffs. Throughout last season I felt the similarities were blatant and quite eerie. 

Anyway, I really like the Mohamed Sanu pick-up for Atlanta. This will finally take some of the pressure off Matt Ryan and Julio Jones. Sanu's hands can be shaky at times, but he has no problem getting separation and uses his size and athleticism quite well. This offense is talented, but their defense gets torched and they have the most difficult schedule of all. 

2. New Orleans Saints (9-7):  This could be the last hurrah for Drew Brees. He finished with strong stats again last season, but in the past two years he hasn't played well in meaningful games nor at meaningful moments in close games. That was the difference in the past -- he was able to carry this organization to victory when the going got tough. Now he's older, his arm is weaker and he fails to dominate against better competition. 

However, expectations are much lower this season. I like that. New Orleans' offensive core of Brees, Mark Ingram, Brandin Cooks, Willie Snead, Michael Thomas and the newly-acquired Coby Fleener is strong. With the exception of Brees, they aren't huge names, and I like that as well. Cooks finally started to make good on the excessive hype last year, Ingram is steady, Snead came out of nowhere to be solid and Fleener looks like a perfect fit on paper. Brees needs a makeshift Jimmy Graham, and he should have one now. 

But New Orleans comes in with the 4th hardest schedule, and we know its defense always gets lit up. That's why I have to cap them at 9 wins. They'll be a bit of an overachiever, though. 

Embed from Getty Images

1. Carolina Panthers (12-4):  As I detailed before, Josh Norman is a biiiig loss. This talented team will survive it, but there's no way they're winning 14 or 15 games this season. I was actually leaning closer to 11, but my faith in Cam Newton squeaked out an extra victory. 

Cam just has that "It" factor. He's cocky, determined and shows serious improvement year over year. He has the drive and relentlessness necessary to carry this offense once again, and the return of Kelvin Benjamin should help as a clear upgrade over departed vet Jerricho Cotchery. 

Carolina's defensive backfield will stumble sans Norman, but its defense still possesses the all-world linebacker tandem of Luke Kuechly and Thomas Davis. The Panthers will be a Super Bowl contender once again; last season left Cam with a bad taste in his mouth. He'll have extra motivation. 

NFC WEST

4. San Francisco 49ers (3-13):  Chip Kelly, a quarterback controversy between Blaine Gabbert and Colin Kaepernick, and they're tied for the hardest schedule in the NFL. Honestly, I feel like this one is self-explanatory. 

3. Los Angeles Rams (7-9):  During an episode of this season's Hard Knocks, head coach Jeff Fisher sternly told his players, "I'm not fucking going 7 and 9."

Umm, Jeff, I'm gonna have to beg to differ there. This has all the makings of another 7-9 campaign for the Rams. 

No. 1 overall pick Jared Goff doesn't appear ready to steal away the starting job, and Case Keenum is a 7-9 kinda guy. During Los Angeles' preseason opener, broadcaster and former Super Bowl champion head coach Jon Gruden rightfully asked, "Who are these quarterbacks going to throw to?"

Embed from Getty Images

If you've followed my NFL writing over the years, you likely know that I HATE teams that skimp out on their receiving corps. YOUR WIDE RECEIVERS HAVE TO GET CONSISTENT SEPARATION FOR YOUR TEAM TO BE SUCCESSFUL. For example, look at Tom Brady's Patriots and Cam Newton's Panthers against the Broncos vaunted defense in the postseason. Denver got pressure, New England and Carolina's receivers couldn't get separation from Harris and Talib, and two of the top three players in the world subsequently looked like back-up quarterbacks playing against first teamers. 

You HAVE to get separation. It's that simple. And washed up Kenny Britt ain't getting separation for the Rams. 

2. Arizona Cardinals (10-6):  You'll never win a Super Bowl with gutless Carson Palmer under center -- as we saw once again, convincingly, during his excruciatingly embarrassing playoff debacle against the Panthers -- but I doubted Bruce Arians in the regular season last year and he burned me. Out of respect for Arians' impressive football acumen, I'm tossing 10 wins to the Cards. They do have to worry about health at the wide receiver position, though. Larry Fitzgerald, John Brown, Michael Floyd...you know the deal. 

Arizona also added defensive stud Chandler Jones. 

But let me just go back to Palmer for a second here, because it makes me happy. I've always argued with people who have defended Palmer over the years. My response was always something like, "I was salivating before my Jets played him in the playoffs (when he was a Bengal), and he always proved me right." Palmer is the typical guy who pads his stats during the regular season, then blatantly chokes under playoff pressure. There's nothing else to it. He's a loser. He crumbles mentally and physically under pressure, unlike proven playoff QBs Brady, Rodgers, Ben, Eli, Brees, Flacco and the next man up, Russell Wilson. 

1. Seattle Seahawks (11-5):  I'm such a Russell Wilson guy, and with the exception of one horrific playcall in the Super Bowl, he has always proven me right. Here are the facts: He plays behind one of the absolute worst offensive lines in the world, constantly scrambling for his life while looking for his No. 1 receiver, Doug Baldwin. 

Yup. Doug Baldwin is his No. 1 receiver. Now, I actually happen to like him because he's tough, scrappy and makes some timely plays, but we all know the difference between Baldwin and a real No. 1 receiver. Antonio Brown, Odell Beckham, DeAndre Hopkins and Brandon Marshall are REAL No. 1 receivers. You see the difference. 

So the point is that Wilson's offensive circumstances are far from ideal, and yet he continues to amaze by showcasing drastic improvement. He maintains a positive attitude, never gets down on his teammates, scrambles when he needs to, makes beautiful window throws when he needs to and is simply an all-around superstar. Clearly, I could talk the kid up for days. 

Anyway, this is an experienced team that should do just fine this season. If Jimmy Graham can get healthy, I think we'll see improvement in his production as well. 

PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS

AFC Playoff teams:  1. Broncos 2. Jaguars 3. Jets 4. Bengals 5. Raiders 6. Patriots

NFC Playoff teams:  1. Packers 2. Panthers 3. Seahawks 4. Giants 5. Redskins 6. Cardinals

AFC Wild Card Weekend:  Jets over Patriots and Raiders over Bengals

NFC Wild Card Weekend:  Seahawks over Cardinals and Giants over Redskins

AFC Semis:  Broncos over Raiders and Jets over Jaguars

NFC Semis:  Packers over Giants and Panthers over Seahawks

AFC Championship:  Jets over Broncos, 24-20

NFC Championship:  Panthers over Packers, 34-31

SUPER BOWL 51

CAROLINA PANTHERS OVER NEW YORK JETS, 31-20. 

Looks like it's going to be a heartbreaking season for me. Bring on the harsh comments about these predictions!