Sunday, May 28, 2017

NBA Top 25 Players: The List of Superstars Gets Longer and Longer

Embed from Getty Images
I'm a belittled master of hyperbole, but I'm serious about this one: Today's NBA boasts the deepest talent pool in the history of the game. The list of legitimate stars is lengthier than ever before. With that in mind, it's friggin' impossible to rank them in order, but I'm gonna try. Here's my criteria:

1. With the exception of the unselfish, ball movement offenses of the Warriors and Spurs, most NBA teams rely on one-on-one play down the stretch of tight games. So, can this player use the drive/pass/shoot threat to effectively manipulate opposing defenses at crunchtime? Can this star lead his team to victory with controlled, high-percentage, high-IQ plays under pressure?

2. Does this player have a positive impact on the on-and-off court culture of his club? Basketball is a team game and rhythm sport, so a selfish star can spiral a team in the wrong direction. A good attitude is contagious. That's a cold you want to catch. 

3. Is this player consistently healthy?

(I'm not even going to mention physical ability because that's a given on this list, right? Well, I guess I just mentioned it anyway.) All right, let's go...

THE NEXT WAVE (Not there yet)

Devin Booker, SG, Phoenix Suns:  I mean, the kid scored 70 points in a game this year. Seventy!! And...he's 20 years old. And...I specifically remember that LeBron endorsed him prior to this season; handpicked him as a future superstar to watch. D-Book is one of those rare all-around scoring machines -- has plenty of range beyond the arc, can get to the cup and isn't afraid to lean on his deadly midrange game. His shot fakes and spacing techniques are scarily mature for his age.

Nikola Jokic, PF/C, Denver Nuggets:  Almost carried the under-the-radar Nuggets to the 8th seed in the West. Head coach Mike Malone nearly crushed Jokic's confidence during the first half of the season -- constantly changing his rotation and neglecting to consider complementary skillsets -- but the second half was an entirely different story. Jusuf Nurkic was dealt to the Blazers, Malone handed the keys over to Jokic and it became his team. He's an extremely talented all-around performer, and the Nuggets know who their Guy is going forward. 

Andrew Wiggins, SF, Minnesota Timberwolves:  Averaged 23.6 points per game this season after 20.7 last year and 16.9 before that. He's developing rapidly as a scorer, but why can't he generate wins playing alongside the ultra-talented Karl-Anthony Towns? These young Wolves need to figure out the fourth quarter. I'm surprised Tom Thibodeau wasn't able to help in year one. 

Hassan Whiteside, C, Miami Heat:  Can be a dominant two-way monster in the paint when he's on his game. His issues are unnecessary fouls and various injuries. Will continue to develop into an elite big under the tutelage of Pat Riley and Erik Spoelstra

Embed from Getty Images

Joel Embiid, C, Philadelphia 76ers:  I cannot believe how good this kid was. We had heard the hype and background noise during a couple seasons lost to injury, but I never expected him to average 20.2 points per game in just 25 minutes per night as a rookie. Simply incredible! He's a seven-footer with a beautiful midrange stroke, who also stretches beyond the arc with shocking comfort. In the paint, he's a Mutombo-esque eraser. "The Process" is under way, and the end result could be a dominant NBA superstar. 

HONORABLE MENTION

Draymond Green, F/C, Golden State Warriors:  Draymond can be annoying, and he relishes the "bad guy," big-mouth role, but I'd take him on my team any day of the week. As we know, he impacts the game as an all-around player, but I think his greatest strengths are on the defensive end. His foot speed, quickness and sheer effort provide him with the versatility to guard all five positions. Golden State's offense would still thrive without him, but its defense would not. He's just barely outside of my top 25 because as you will see, no role players made the final cut. He is the best role player in the game, though.

Paul Millsap, PF, Atlanta Hawks:  The guy is just a pure professional. He's tough, gets the absolute most out of his limited athleticism and plays smart, technical basketball. Millsap is a reliable midrange shooter who can also hit threes, rebound on both ends and block shots when you least expect it. He's a winning player.

Embed from Getty Images

Kyle Lowry, PG, Toronto Raptors:  Critics are tough on him because of his consistently disappointing postseason showings, but I think it's a matter of lacking the pure talent of the Russell Westbrook's, Chris Paul's and Kyrie Irving's of the world. Lowry puts up big numbers throughout the regular season because he always plays hard and leaves it all on the floor, but the playoffs aren't simply about that. Playing hard with some talent isn't enough to dominate in the NBA playoffs. Lowry is small and less gifted than the game's true superstars. However, like his predecessor Millsap, he gets the most out of his body and skillset. And you know what, people always seem to knock the Raptors, but they always end up in the playoffs, don't they? There's something to be said about the combined leadership of Lowry and DeMar DeRozan.

JOHNNY FRO'S TOP 25 NBA PLAYERS

25. C.J. McCollum, G, Blazers:  Hard not to love this kid. Class act all the way, super coachable, with a neck-snapping release -- blink and he's getting that jumper off in your eye. As I've written about him in the past, C.J. came into the league a little overweight and without a position, but in just a couple years he slimmed down, boosted his quickness and found confidence to rival his gun-slinging backcourt mate, Damian Lillard.

I think Dame and head coach Terry Stotts deserve some credit for McCollum's astonishingly quick development from a lost reserve to one of the world's premier perimeter shooting assassins. Confidence is the name of the game for shooters, and McCollum clearly has teammates and coaches who implore him to shoot the rock when the ball touches his hands. 

Just a random food-for-thought question...if you swapped Lowry and DeRozan for Lillard and McCollum, could the Raptors knock off the Cavs? Point being...reputation is a matter of circumstance. Statistical production in the NBA is also (often) a matter of circumstance. Lillard and McCollum are the backcourt of a back-end West playoff team, a reality that turns them into afterthoughts on "best" lists. In a vacuum, I'd take Lillard and McCollum over DeRozan and Lowry, even though the latter pair consistently earns a higher seed in the postseason.

24. Mike Conley, PG, Grizzlies:  Just a consummate all-around pro. Can dribble, drive and finish effectively with both hands, which makes him a constant headache for opposing defenses. Conley is quick, a solid perimeter shooter and savvy defensive player. He's the engine that makes the Grizz go; unfortunately, they are never talented enough to get over the hump in the playoffs. Nevertheless, Conley is one of those talented class acts that any team would welcome in a heartbeat. He leads by example, as well. 

23. Gordon Hayward, SG/SF, Jazz:  Hayward is a very, very good player, but also a strange one. He's displayed incredibly consistent development since losing to my UConn Huskies in the NCAA Tournament as a key member of Brad Stevens' Butler squad, but I don't think he's all the way there yet. That said, Stevens' Celtics are preparing to throw a boatload of money at him this offseason. I'm not sure Hayward's offensive style would necessarily complement Isaiah Thomas, but that's a story for a different day.

As far as Hayward's game, I think he lost a bit of his identity this season with George Hill running the point. Hill is an unselfish passer and wonderful teammate, but the sheer fact that he handles the ball has tinkered with Hayward's offensive game. In preceding seasons, Utah's lack of a quality point guard forced Hayward to handle the ball more, which in turn expanded his offensive repertoire. Many guards/swingmen produce better with the ball in their hands, which is why I wonder if Hayward could stomach Isaiah's ball dominance. 

I really like Hayward's skillset and demeanor, but you know how proven stars simply know what their shots are? Like, we saw the same moves from Michael Jordan, Kobe Bryant and Paul Pierce time and time again, right? Well, Hayward hasn't reached that stage of his career yet. He's still kind of taking opportunities as they come. To get into my top 15 or even 20, he'll have to define his game more. Maybe he will, maybe he won't. Will probably depend on which team he signs with long-term. 

22. Bradley Beal, SG, Wizards:  It's funny because Beal has exactly what Hayward doesn't -- a fully-defined offensive repertoire. To me, Beal has always fallen under the "pure scorer" category, but this season he really backed it up with statistical output. He went from 15.3 points per game in 2014-15, to 17.4 then 23.1 this year, ahead of big names like Klay Thompson, Blake Griffin and Carmelo Anthony

Perhaps even more importantly, his field goal percentage jumped from 42.7 to 44.9, then all the way to 48.2. This is a perimeter player improving to a shooting percentage that we see from some bigs who play 2 to 5 feet from the hoop. That's a reflection of the definition of Beal's game. He's a smooth three-point shooter, with an elite midrange game and the ability to score at the cup with both hands. 

Head coach Scott Brooks quickly instituted the same, simple philosophy that he leaned on in Oklahoma City with Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook: I'm going to put the ball in the hands of my top two offensive players, and let them do whatever they want. Total freedom to carry the offense. In this case, Beal's partner-in-crime is of course, John Wall. It's worked out well for Washington, as they have advanced to the second round of the playoffs in Brooks' first year on the job, a feat that has proved daunting in the past. In the end, I'm a big Beal fan, but in order to move into my top 20, he needs to produce more in other categories and stay consistently healthy, year over year. 

Embed from Getty Images

21. Kemba Walker, PG, Hornets:  This is a tough sell because the Hornets were completely out of the limelight this season. Last year they were a spunky underdog and scrappy sensation winning a befuddling 48 games, but this season they went back to being Kemba Walker and a bunch of scrubs. As I predicted, that had a lot to do with the departures of Jeremy Lin and Courtney Lee

Anyway, Kemba is essentially the less glamorous, right-handed version of Isaiah Thomas. And no, that is not a backhanded insult; that is absolutely a compliment. He's a confident and electric one-on-one scorer who can often carry an entire offense, particularly in the 4th quarter. However, he simply didn't have the supporting personnel necessary to return to the playoffs this year. 

And let's be real -- McCollum, Conley, Hayward, Beal and Kemba clearly aren't separated by much, if anything at all. So I'm giving Kemba the ever-so-slight edge because it's more difficult to average 23.2 points per game (a career high) when the opposing defense knows you are a one-man band. The preceding four get far superior support from talented teammates. Kemba also has that no-fear, killer instinct at crunchtime. Michael Jordan should be able to recognize that quality in a player, right?

20. Blake Griffin, PF, Clippers:  First thing that comes to mind is...I'm not sure how much longer we'll be seeing "Los Angeles Clippers" next to Blake's name. I understand why Doc Rivers wants to keep the gang together -- it's painfully difficult to rebuild a franchise to the point where you have a superstar duo like Blake and Chris Paul together for an extended period of time -- but at the same time, it may simply be time for change. I've been defending the Clippers' talent level for years now, but one way or another (usually by injury) they fall short of expectations. As a free agent, Blake has awesome options like the Rockets, Thunder or Celtics (cap permitting). It will take a masterful pitch to keep him a Clipper.

As a player, talent wise, Griffin is definitely one of the top 12 to 15 in the game. He's still an athletic freak with incredible footwork and full-court speed for his size, but my favorite aspects of his game are his pure basketball skills: Plus dribbler, passer, midrange shooter and all-around scorer for his position. He's an excellent rebounder when engaged as well, though he tends to defer to DeAndre Jordan (because that overrated bum has to do something, right?). Blake has even expanded out beyond the three-point line, a la Al Horford, Brook Lopez and Marc Gasol. Bigs are evolving these days.

In the end, I have Blake ranked 20th because he can't stay healthy. As I mentioned in the intro, that's going to be a major factor on my list this season (and really should be every year). Last year he knocked himself out for the season punching out a team employee. That's childish, reckless and detrimental to your team. Totally unprofessional. This year it was a broken toe derailing the Clippers' hopes of a deep run in the postseason. Blake will play well wherever he ends up, but will he be on the court when it matters the most?

19. Klay Thompson, SG, Warriors:  Klay can be a bit of a polarizing figure; some view him as a top 10 all-around player -- Charles Barkley even ranked him ahead of his two-time MVP teammate, Steph Curry -- while others pigeonhole him under the category of "shooter." I'm somewhere in the middle; as I tend to be. I think Klay is the second-best perimeter shooter in the world, and one of the greatest pure shooters of all time, but I don't view him as a standalone franchise player. He'd be a lights out shooter on any team in the NBA, but his overall value is at its peak on a team like the Warriors, playing alongside ball-dominant superstars like Steph and Kevin Durant

The situation he's been fortunate enough to blossom in has allowed him to gradually become a big name with both fans and analysts of the NBA. He's deserving of his stature because of the Warriors' success and his integral role in that success, but for the purposes of a list like this, I personally prefer a guy who can carry you by himself. Isn't that the true definition of a superstar? Isn't that was separates a franchise player from an all-star role player? Klay's average ballhandling and passing (if I'm being polite) make it impossible for him to carry you as a standalone. He needs fastbreaks, screens and/or set plays to get the looks he thrives upon. That's not a knock; it's simply categorizing him properly as a basketball player. I guess, if I'm being fair and consistent, that makes Klay the premier role player in the game, and not Draymond who I ranked 26th.

Embed from Getty Images

In conclusion, I was reading this article the other day and Danny Chau wrote, "After 12 undefeated games thus far in the Warriors’ postseason run, there’s one question my mind keeps circling back to. It doesn’t have anything to do with LeBron James or the Cavaliers, or the whereabouts of Steve Kerr or Klay Thompson." That final line certainly caught my attention. I've been watching the NBA Playoffs as intently as ever, but has Klay really played THAT poorly? Poorly enough to be considered a missing person?

Upon review of Klay's postseason gamelog, it's overtly clear that he hasn't been himself these playoffs. He averaged 22.3 points per game during the regular season, yet has only had ONE playoff game with 22 or more points (game 3 against the Blazers, where he went an underwhelming 8-of-21 for 24 points). That's ONE game out of 12. And we've seen this from him in the playoffs before. When he gets really hot he goes unconscious -- like the end of game 6 against the Thunder last year -- but in general, he's a little weird. Shot selection is a little off, shot making is off. He's just not as good in the playoffs so far. Klay's just a super role player in my eyes. 

Sorry, Chuck. 


18. Jimmy Butler, SG/SF, Bulls:  See, this is what I mean about circumstance. With a healthy Rajon Rondo, the Bulls were up 2-0 against the reeling Boston Celtics -- boasting two impressive road victories! -- and well on their way to one of the bigger postseason upsets in NBA history. Sure, this year's Celtics are one of the weakest 1 seeds of all time, but nevertheless we were on our way to an 8 over 1, ultra-rare upset. But, as we know, Rondo went down and the Celtics ran off four consecutive wins. 

So where does Jimmy Butler factor into all this? Well, what would people be saying about Butler if the much-maligned, dysfunctional Bulls ripped off a shocking series upset over a 1 seed?

"Jimmy Butler is a true franchise player." "Jimmy Butler is an ELITE two-way player." "Jimmy Butler is the most underrated superstar in the NBA."

That's what happens when things break your way. All of the question marks turn into exclamation points. All of the knocks seem to fade out of discussion. 

Jimmy Butler is a tough, athletic swingman who can drive, defend and has continued to improve his perimeter shooting throughout his NBA career. During the regular season, he averaged 23.9 points, 6.2 rebounds, 5.5 assists and 1.9 steals per game. If the Bulls were a top 3 seed with a better season story, he'd be a legitimate MVP candidate, right? 

That's why it's all relative. For example, I'm going to rank Damian Lillard 12th on this list. Skill for skill, how much better than Butler is he? If you decide to place more weight on individual defense than I do, can you even rank Lillard ahead of Butler? I think a deadly one-on-one scorer is the hardest thing to find, but maybe you don't. Circumstance and subjectivity. 

Long story short, I'm giving Jimmy the nod over Klay because I can give him the ball and say, "Drive to the hoop here and draw some contact. Get me a high-percentage attack of the rim."

17. DeMarcus Cousins, PF/C, Pelicans:  As I say every time, DeMarcus Cousins is one of the most talented basketball players in the world. He is a stat stuffer and fantasy darling. But, at the end of the day, I'm tired of his shit. His teams don't win, and his childish behavior is a disabling distraction, on and off the court. It's the same old story with this guy. I'm not going to go on forever here.

16. Paul George, F, Pacers:  Here, I'm forced to go back to circumstance. When you bring in Jeff Teague and Thaddeus Young -- two guys who aren't shy about looking for their own shot -- you know you are impeding Paul George's ability to control your offense. And if you anoint Paul George your Franchise Player, you want him to be the focal point of your offense, right?

"PG" averaged a career-high 23.7 points per game on 46.1% shooting this season, but he didn't make "the leap" like the aforementioned Beal, Towns, DeRozan and Antetokounmpo. He merely jumped from 23.1 ppg to 23.7 because his surrounding cast restricted his overall opportunity to shine. 

Look, I'm not going to go on forever here either, because I feel like a lot of these players are similar in terms of talent and statistical production. At the end of the day, Paul George is a great all-around basketball player who needs to make a savvy decision in free agency. Pick the right spot and he can ascend into the top 10. Go the wrong route, and he could fall as low as 20 or 25. Circumstance. 

Embed from Getty Images

15. Karl-Anthony Towns, C, Wolves:  25.1 points, 12.3 rebounds, 1.3 blocks and 1.2 threes per game...for a 21-year old center. 

I mean...seriously? The kid's a freak. 

Super nice, super coachable. I'm truly shocked that the Timberwolves were as bad as they were this season. With Towns -- who on paper, is an undeniable superstar -- and Andrew Wiggins who is an electric scorer, I really thought they'd compete for a playoff spot with Tom Thibodeau at the helm. Maybe his stern, old school ways aren't right for this young group of players. Time will tell. Small sample size so far. 

Anyway, there isn't much doubt that "KAT" is going to quickly become a top 10 overall player. He's a one in a million talent with as high an upside as I've ever seen. Maybe Zach LaVine's season-ending injury is what ultimately derailed the Wolves. I dunno. I'm still scratching my head over their utter lack of success, given the pure skill and talent they have. 

Maybe as the old saying goes, they just don't know how to win yet. They better be better next year. If they aren't, maybe raw talent isn't as important as it once was. 

14. DeMar DeRozan, SG/SF, Raptors:  I'm just going to get this right out in the open...I am NOT a DeMar DeRozan guy, by any stretch of the imagination -- but as the years fly by, I'm trying harder and harder to be as unbiased as humanly possible. 

DeMar DeRozan had an OUTSTANDING 2016-17 season. His 27.3 points per game trailed only Westbrook, Harden, Isaiah and Anthony Davis, and he shot a truly surprising 46.7% from the floor. This is a guy who shot 42.2% in 2011-12, 42.9 in 13-14 and 41.3 in 14-15. This drastically improved efficiency indicates DeMar's conscious effort to improve shot selection and drive to the rack with even greater frequency. DeMar's usually among the leaders in free throw attempts, and I love a scorer who racks up easy points at the charity stripe. 

In another era he might be viewed as a front-line superstar, but backcourt play is too crowded these days. There are a scary number of immensely talented shooting guards and swingmen. I mean, DeMar efficiently scored more points per game than LeBron, Kawhi, Steph and Durant

Does anyone talk about him like he belongs in that group?

13. Giannis Antetokounmpo, G/F, Bucks:  Man, I gotta tell ya, the advanced scouts got this one right. You wanna read something depressing? How about a quick glance at this: 

The latest evidence comes out of Dallas. The Mavericks owned the 13th pick in that 2013 draft, and president of basketball operations Donnie Nelson wanted Antetokounmpo, according to The Dallas Morning News' Eddie Sefko

Owner Mark Cuban shot that idea down. Instead of using the 13th pick, the Mavs traded down to select point guard Shane Larkin with the 18th pick, as the Mavs hoped a little salary savings could help them pay a free agent that summer. Dwight Howard was the main target, but it didn't happen. And while Larkin was involved in the trade that helped Dallas acquire Tyson Chandler this offseason, hindsight says the Mavericks missed an opportunity.


Cuban is still confident that he made the right call.
"He's making us look bad for sticking to our plan," Cuban said Tuesday. "The whole point was that I wanted to stick to the plan and Donnie was like, this guy's going to be good. I'll risk everything that he's going to be good. I said, 'I believe you Donnie.'
Ouch. Anyway, a lot of teams and scouts felt that way about Giannis from the get go. When I first saw "The Greek Freak" in game action, I wasn't quite sure what position he would end up playing. I mean, who wants a swingman who can't really shoot these days?

But, young Giannis has rapidly developed into a hybrid point guard, a la LeBron James and James Harden. They aren't ONLY point guards, but they can dribble, drive, penetrate, dish and score in a seemingly endless variety of ways. 

Embed from Getty Images

Giannis Antetokounmpo is a special, special player, and he's still only 22 years old. He averaged 22.9 points, 8.8 rebounds, 5.4 assists, 1.9 blocks and 1.6 steals per game. Honestly, I don't even know what to say about that. 

Giannis and Towns undoubtedly represent the next wave of NBA megastars. 

12. Damian Lillard, PG, Blazers:  Damian Lillard is a showstopper. His swag is undeniable, and he's simply one of those ballers who has no fear of The Moment. Some very talented players hesitate, and Dame just ain't one of them. 

Only Steph Curry can rival Dame's seemingly-unlimited range beyond the arc, and his release is equally as blinding. Lillard is a flashy ballhandler with slippery ability in the paint, I just wish he'd stay more committed to the drive. Of course, the flip side for undersized drivers is nagging injuries, a la Allen Iverson, Kyrie Irving and recently Isaiah Thomas. But, Lillard would be utterly unstoppable if he drove as frequently as say, Harden, DeRozan or Kyrie. 

Nevertheless, he's still a showstopping scorer. His long-term outlook is very simple: (1) He has to use the constant threat of his own shot to increase his assist average from 5+ to 9+ and (2) The Blazers will never go deep into the playoffs until their leaders become consistent defenders. I'm telling you, defense is all about effort. You think Damian Lillard lacks the physical ability to be an excellent NBA defender?

Of course he doesn't. He's lighting-quick, ultra-athletic and swift enough to maneuver around screens. There's no physical reason why he shouldn't be an impact defender at the point guard position. It's simply a matter of mental commitment. To this point in his impressive career, Dame has not shown that commitment, and the Blazers are limited because of that. That's why he's not in my top 10. 

11. John Wall, PG, Wizards:  What an incredible season this kid had. As a former No. 1 overall selection, we've always known about Wall's all-world skillset, but this year he really put it all together. Please do not give more credit to "The Robot" Scott Brooks than you should. 

John Wall is absolutely one of the premier passers and playmakers in the game -- his 10.7 assists per game were second-best in the league -- and his breakneck ballhandling makes him a recurring nightmare in transition. 

I love the way he keeps his entire team in rhythm. Ultimately, he's falling just shy of my top 10 because he's not as consistent a defender as he should be, and he can't shoot like the superstars in my top group. You know me...in the closing moments of a critical game...is the opposition petrified about leaving you open? Sure, he hit this one to push the East semifinals to a Game 7 (and it was awesome), but he closed that Game 7 going 0-of-10 from the floor. Does a top 10 player go 0 for 10 with the season on the line?

Embed from Getty Images

10. Isaiah Thomas, PG, Celtics:  I feel like I've been talking about this guy allllll postseason, non stop. Sam Ytuarte, Jimmy Kelly, Andrew Meyer, Steve Summer and I have been engaged in a heated, ongoing debate about Isaiah's place in the landscape of the league, and more specifically, his ability under pressure in comparison to LeBron James

My stance is as follows...Game 7 of the NBA Finals...less than 2 minutes remaining...you need to lean on one player to make big shots for you -- and more often than not, opposing defenses will force you into perimeter attempts under those circumstances (think about Michael Jordan or Kobe Bryant in those spots) -- who do you go to in today's NBA?

In the past, we would quickly say "Michael." After that we'd say "Kobe." Does everyone really say "LeBron" now?

LeBron James is the best basketball player in the world; no questions asked. (Yes, I just gave away the No. 1 spot on my list, but who is really surprised?) But...he's not necessarily "The Guy" under the circumstances I've laid out. Furthermore, what about clutch scenarios when his team falls behind and really seems lost -- like Game 4 against the Celtics, when Boston went up 16 early, carrying over their momentum from their gritty Game 3 victory -- was LeBron the one who took the ball and said, I'm single-handedly going to get us out of this hole?

No, he wasn't. Kyrie Irving was The One who stepped up, and we've seen that storyline before.

He doesn't have blind confidence, and that's exactly what I'm looking for in those types of situations. Not blind, reckless confidence -- like say, Russell Westbrook -- but blind, controlled confidence like Kyrie, Kawhi Leonard and Isaiah. And that's exactly what I told Sam Ytuarte: Final two minutes? I'm taking 1. Kyrie 2. Kawhi 3. Isaiah and 4. LeBron in that order.

To be honest, from a mental standpoint, I think Kemba Walker and Damian Lillard have more confidence than LeBron in those situations as well, but they don't have the postseason track record, and if I'm going to take one guy WITHOUT the track record, I'm taking Isaiah because he's been setting 4th quarter scoring records over the course of the past two seasons.

As far as full-game stats, in the past three seasons, "IT2" has jumped from 15.2 points per game, to 22.2 and now 28.9 on 46.3% shooting (both career highs). His 28.9 ppg were third only to Westbrook and James Harden, our two leading MVP candidates. The clear reality is that Isaiah Thomas is a rapidly-developing scoring machine who is accelerating toward his apex. He stretches you out with the range of his three-point stroke, then slithers inside around screens for deadly midrange jumpers. Although he's listed at just 5'9" -- which we all know, means he's probably shorter -- he has no fear of engaging the "trees" and attacking the rim.

If I find the time, I'll whip up another article fleshing out the LeBron/Isaiah clutch debate.

9. Kyrie Irving, PG, Cavs:  I mean, many of you already know how I feel about Kyrie Irving. He's my favorite player in the world. He has the magic, intangible "it" factor. I've fleshed out my opinions about him a couple of times in the past, so I'll borrow from the last time:

How many players in the world can consistently get all the way to the rim with their right or left, draw fouls, post-up, pull-up, hit mid-range shots with ease, fade-aways and hit threes? That's how rare Kyrie is -- he's the perfect offensive machine. Not to mention that he has balls of steel and is an immensely entertaining player to watch. Kyrie's the man; you can't convince me otherwise.

That just about sums him up. The reasons he isn't higher on the list are strikingly similar to Damian Lillard's: Doesn't use his uncanny scoring ability to open up opportunities for his teammates (just 5.8 assists per game for a ball-dominant "point guard") and rarely shows commitment to the defensive end of the floor. He saves it for the NBA Finals, haha. In a vacuum, you need all three of those qualities to be a franchise player. Right now, Kyrie is part of a perfect duo with LeBron, one hand washes the other, but what if they separate down the line? Can Kyrie propel an entire franchise the way LeBron does? 

No, I don't believe he can, and that's the difference between the top 10 and top 5. 

Embed from Getty Images

8. Anthony Davis, PF/C, Pelicans:  In terms of pure talent, "AD" is probably top 5, but he hasn't been a winner at the NBA level and his injury history is simply unacceptable. Regardless, he's one of the most freakish players to ever lace up basketball sneakers. The best way to show you how SCARY this kid is, is to highlight some of his individual games from this season:

October 26th against the Nuggets: 50 points, 15 rebounds, 5 assists, 5 steals, 4 blocks with only 3 turnovers. 

October 28th, his very next game, against the WARRIORS: 45 points, 17 rebounds, 2 steals, 2 blocks and only 1 turnover!

November 23rd against the Wolves: 45 points and 10 rebounds. 

November 29th against the Lakers: 41 points and 16 rebounds. 

January 9th against the Knicks: 40 points and 18 rebounds. 

All-Star Game: 52 points and 10 rebounds. That's just for shits and giggles. 

March 11th against the Hornets: 46 points and 21 rebounds!

And, as a throw-in, he had a 59 and 20 game against Andre Drummond (a tough match-up) and the Pistons last year. Check out this interesting article about the scope of AD's statistical production. 

I don't need to interpret these numbers for you. With his length, speed, quickness, athleticism and pure basketball talent, Anthony Davis is doing things that past bigs would never have dreamed of. He's an athletic and statistical freak. Plain and simple. 

7. Chris Paul, PG, Clippers:  Chris Paul is a basketball savant. He's a complete player who controls games and manipulates opposing defenses, a la LeBron James. I love Chris Paul's skill, tenacity and mind for the game. When I begin to write about him, my mind gets pulled in 100 different directions. 

I think, to the general public, that he has the reputation as a guy who simply can't get it done. To me, that makes him one of those tragic sports figures like Ted Williams, Dan Marino, Charles Barkley, Karl Malone, John Stockton, Patrick Ewing, Jim Kelly, and to a lesser extent, former local stars Carlos Beltran and Stephon Marbury.

I HATE when the media and public have loftier expectations of an athlete than they should. If a guy never wins a championship and has one or two bad moments under pressure, his career ends up defined by those individual failures. Yes, Beltran struck out looking to end the 2006 NLCS, but he also hit 8 homers in a single postseason for the Astros, which tied Barry Bonds' record at the time. Statistically, he's actually one of the best postseason performers of his era. 

Well, the same could be said of Chris Paul. He's had a couple of bad moments, sprinkled somewhere within hundreds and hundreds of smart, clutch plays. He knocked the defending-champion Spurs out with a Game 7 winner on one leg. For his postseason career -- nine total appearances -- CP3 has averaged 21.4 points, 9.4 assists, 2.2 steals and 1.5 threes per game on incredible 48.4% shooting from the floor. This is a guy who averages only 18.7 points on 47.3% shooting during the regular season, so he has always turned it up a notch in the playoffs. Compare him to guards like Harden and Westbrook, whose playoff shooting percentages dip dramatically. 

Chris Paul has all of the attributes of a player you want to carry you under duress. He's a legendary ballhandler and passer, and his midrange jumper is automatic. He weaves through defenders going both right and left, while keeping his turnovers down. He's never afraid to take and make a big three. He only attempts 3.2 threes per game during the regular season, but has averaged over 5 attempts per game in each of his past four postseason runs. He doesn't shy away from The Moment. He wants to shoulder greater responsibility, and does so with skill and crazy efficiency. 

I'll always be a CP3 guy, but in the end, I agree with those who say the Clippers are cursed. No matter what, they just can't seem to get it done. What bothers me are the idiots who blame him for the failure. Chris Paul is one of the greatest all-around basketball players of our generation, on lazy regular season nights AND pressure-packed playoff platforms. 

6. Stephen Curry, PG, Warriors:  I really, really wanted to rank Steph 4th overall because I'm pissed at the next two guys on the list. What's holding me back is the reality that the next two are simply better all-around basketball players. Nevertheless, there's no doubt in my mind that Steph Curry is the best shooter in the history of the sport. His perimeter shot versatility is unparalleled, as he can dribble full-speed into pull-up threes, sprint around screens and/or hit wild contested fadeaways. There is no 3-ball he isn't comfortable with.

At the end of the day, so much has been written about Steph that I find him a boring topic, so I'll summarize by saying that he's the best version of the Kyle Lowry, Kemba Walker, Damian Lillard, Isaiah Thomas and Kyrie Irving point guard group. Stylistically, they are all similar smallish, shoot-first point guards, and Steph is the best of the best. He just doesn't have the physicality or potential solo dominance of the superstars in my top five.

5. James Harden, G, Rockets:  Throughout the regular season, I was 100% confident that James Harden was the second-best basketball player in the world. I'm not talking about MVP voting or the race with Westbrook, I'm talking about ranking the best players in the game (like, LeBron isn't going to win MVP, but he is the best player). 

And I'll admit it, Harden tricks me. Every regular season I absolutely love tuning in to his games. He toys with opposing defenses with his drives, passes, finishes, free throws and jumpers. This year Mike D'Antoni rightfully gave him the keys to the Porsche, and "The Beard" responded by running the offense to the tune of one of the greatest statistical seasons in the history of the game. Harden is the perfect offensive machine. 

But, the playoffs rolled around, and the real James Harden reared his ugly head once again. A couple of years ago, I pointed out that he acts strange during the postseason, and his disappointing numbers support that sentiment. I'll make this as simple as possible: He doesn't play the way he does during the regular season. Harden seems relaxed, smooth and unstoppable throughout the regular season. His posture, demeanor and swag indicate that he knows he can get whatever drive, kick or shot he wants. No team defense can stop him because he's such a willing passer once he penetrates into the lane. 

That James Harden doesn't exist in the playoffs. When the going gets tough, Harden starts to act like he doesn't care. Drives to the hoop in slow motion, makes lazy passes, takes contested long twos and threes. Is that the mark of a legitimate superstar? Is that the attitude you want from your franchise player?

No one needs to bother answering those questions. In Game 6 of the Western Conference semifinals, with the Rockets' season on the line and Kawhi Leonard out of commission for the Spurs, Harden responded with 10 points on 2-of-11 shooting, to go along with 6 turnovers and 6 fouls. This is a player who averaged 29.1 points per game this season, 29.0 the year before that, and so on. 

Embed from Getty Images

You get the idea. Harden already had the record for most turnovers in a postseason game. He's a loser. He folds under pressure. He lets his teammates down. He doesn't have the heart of a champion. He should be the second-best basketball player on the planet, but I'm ranking him 5th because I wouldn't want him on my team in a big game. I'm done wasting words on this punk. 

4. Russell Westbrook, PG, Thunder:  Here's another guy who just doesn't get it. Like Harden, Westbrook had one of the greatest statistical seasons in the history of basketball, but has similar postseason troubles. I say "similar" because both Harden and Westbrook play below their potential in the playoffs, but the specific nature of their failures is different. 

Harden gets passive. He shies away from the pressure, while Russ runs straight for it. He wants to do everything. He wants to push the ball faster than any player to come before him. He wants to take and make every single shot for his team. He wants to dominate every individual stat category. 

But it doesn't work out that way because Russ fails to understand the concept of shot selection. He's been in the NBA for 9 seasons, and he still doesn't know a good shot from a bad one. You can't be a champion until you understand what good basketball is. Russell Westbrook takes all of the shots he can get off, but Russell Westbrook is the most (or second-most) physically unstoppable athlete in the league. You can see why that's a problem. Just because you can get a shot off, doesn't mean you should take it; so when you can get any single shot you want, things can really spiral out of control. 

And that's Russ in a nutshell. Physically, he's either the best or second-best player in the world. He's faster, more explosive and determined than anyone. He can do it all on the court. But he lets his emotions get the best of him. He loses trust in his teammates. He doesn't choose his shots wisely, especially when the game is close late. 

If you go back and review the tape, the Thunder actually had a shot to beat the Rockets this postseason. Player for player, Houston was a MUCH better team, but Russ is the great equalizer. OKC had chances to steal multiple wins, but Russ made the wrong plays at the wrong times. Forcing up long threes early in the shot clock, driving into triple teams and refusing to pass, etc. Make some mental adjustments, dude!

Russell Westbrook will never be postseason great, unless he learns how to play basketball the right way. That's a sad thought for a 9-year veteran, isn't it?

3. Kawhi Leonard, SF, Spurs:  You couldn't create a more perfect basketball concoction in a lab. Kawhi Leonard is a flawless basketball robot: He's big, strong, agile, long, talented, confident and coachable. He's a coach's dream AND a teammate's dream. He's the total package on both ends of the floor. 

I mean, I want to feel bad for the Spurs that he went down at exactly the wrong time against the Warriors, but San Antonio has had plenty of incredible fortune in the past. Maybe they were due for a bad break. Anyway, Kawhi was already an NBA Finals MVP in the past, and he has only gotten better and better since then. 

I never thought he would become the type of franchise player who you could just give the ball to and say, okay, take this home for us, but Kawhi has really developed as a ballhandler and primary playmaker. He's a student of the game with the best teacher of them all, Gregg Popovich

Try to knock Kawhi's game. Go ahead. Seriously. He's a super-high percentage three-point shooter, a super high-percentage midrange shooter, strong finisher of both dunks and lay-ups, improved ballhandler, excellent free throw shooter and multiple-time Defensive Player of the Year. 

Kawhi Leonard leads by example and is a role model in the ilk of Derek Jeter. Just a class act and consummate professional. If Kawhi had stayed healthy and the Spurs pulled off that Game 1 upset of the Warriors on the road -- which it certainly seemed like they were going to do -- who knows? Maybe they would have shocked the world and knocked off the Warriors. 

But like I've been saying all along...circumstance. A poorly-timed injury derails your once promising season. All of these rankings and standings are so delicate. Seasons and franchises can crumble due to devastating injuries. Hopefully Kawhi will come back at 100% next season, and he'll have the opportunity to move up to the No. 2 overall spot. 

2. Kevin Durant, F, Warriors:  Basketball had never before seen a player like Kevin Durant. He's an alien. As a seven-footer with a true center's wingspan, in the old days he'd be playing 2 to 3 feet from the hoop. 

But not KD...KD is a seven-footer (yes, he finally admitted that he's 7 feet tall with his basketball sneakers on) who dribbles like a point guard, shoots like a shooting guard, defends like a forward and blocks shots like a center. I mean seriously, what is that? He's definitely an alien. 

You've all seen Kevin Durant play before; tell me this...how can a guy who shoots so many outside shots be connecting on 53.7% from the floor? How is that humanly possible? He's a 48.8% lifetime shooter, but in the past five seasons he shot 51.0, 50.3, 51.0, 50.5 and of course, 53.7. There's no such thing as efficiency like that when a player is often far from the rim (KD attempted 5.0 threes per game this season, 6.7 last year). 

I could go on for days about this guy, but I'm getting tired of writing. My only knock on him is injuries; but he's more talented than Kawhi, and his mental makeup is a happy medium between Harden and Westbrook, so he truly belongs at the No. 2 spot. It's crazy that the Warriors have 3 of the greatest shooters of all time in the same starting lineup. Unfair. 

Embed from Getty Images

1. LeBron James, G/F, Cavs:  If you don't think LeBron James is the best all-around basketball player on the planet, then you are an idiot. Goodbye.

So that concludes my list...please bring on the heated debates!

Tuesday, April 11, 2017

2017 New York Mets: My Suggestions For Improving Offensive Production

Embed from Getty Images
At 2-3 with a handful of pathetic offensive performances under their collective belt, I was already prepared to stop watching the 2017 New York Mets; not because I don't believe in them long-term -- in fact, I predicted that they would return to the World Series (and lose) -- but because stranding runners in scoring position is the most frustrating thing in the world. 

No one strands runners in scoring position as frequently as the Mets. I just can't handle it emotionally. 

However, I kept watching (as always) and was pleasantly surprised by back-to-back competitive victories over the Marlins and Phillies. Sunday night's game was tight at 3-2, but New York was able to pull away with timely bombs from Jay Bruce and Michael Conforto

Good sign #1: Tacking on runs when ahead. 

Last night was even better, thanks to controversial headhunting and Bruce's lefty-on-lefty f**k you blast in the 8th, which put the Mets ahead 4-2, after trailing 2-0 in the early going. Jacob deGrom was shaky out of the gate -- no thanks to poor defensive reads by Jose Reyes and Curtis Granderson -- but a critical 1-2-3 double play allowed deGrom to escape a potentially damning hole. From there, the Mets were able to hang in until Bruce provided two momentum-swinging shots. 

Embed from Getty Images

Good sign #2: Fighting back from an early deficit. 

Unfortunately, the construction of the batting order is still a disaster. The Mets can optimize their win total with the correct full-time starters hitting in the appropriate lineup slots. Here's my list of suggestions:

1. Conforto should be the everyday centerfielder. Granderson still has pop in his bat, but he rarely squares a ball up. His at bat quality is unacceptable. He often goes down on 3 or 4 pitches. He's old and his days as a full-time player are likely over. 

2. Wilmer Flores should be the everyday third baseman. An aging Reyes should be a 2B/SS/3B utility man at this stage of his career. The Mets could also release Reyes and call up Matt Reynolds for that role. I like Reynolds' versatility and professionalism.

3. Asdrubal Cabrera should lead off. Neither Reyes or Granderson get on base enough to occupy such a crucial spot in the lineup. 

4. Here's my everyday lineup:

Embed from Getty Images

1. Asdrubal Cabrera - SS
2. Michael Conforto - CF
3. Yoenis Cespedes - LF
4. Jay Bruce - RF
5. Neil Walker - 2B
6. Wilmer Flores - 3B
7. Lucas Duda - 1B
8. Travis d'Arnaud - C

What do my fellow Mets fans think about that?

Tuesday, March 14, 2017

Johnny Fro's 2017 MLB Preseason Predictions: Is It the Indians' Time to Celebrate?

Embed from Getty Images
As my loyal readers already know, I hate these obligatory intros. Let's get right into my projections...

AMERICAN LEAGUE EAST

1. Boston Red Sox:  No team in the AL East is unflappable. The Sox lost David Ortiz -- one of the best all-around hitters in the world and their premier clutch performer -- to retirement, and David Price is heading into the season with elbow issues. At full strength, they are the best team in this division on paper, but I doubt we'll see Price or Drew Pomeranz at their healthiest this year. 

Of course, on the positive side, they have a ridiculous lineup boasting Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, Hanley Ramirez and Dustin Pedroia, with intriguing wild cards like Andrew Benintendi, Jackie Bradley, Sandy Leon and Mitch Moreland. There's a good chance this club will hit 1 through 9. 

Clearly the pitching additions of Chris Sale and Tyler Thornburg are huge, but it's reasonable to doubt repeat performances from Rick Porcello and Steven Wright. And don't forget...this team absolutely flopped in the postseason. The Indians wiped the floor with them. Boston's explosive offense should carry them through the long haul of the regular season, but it will be difficult to be confident in them heading into the playoffs. 

2. Toronto Blue Jays:  The Sox lost Ortiz, and the Jays lost Edwin Encarnacion. This is a similarly devastating loss for them; I'm surprised they allowed him to get away to a fellow AL playoff contender (Indians). He'll be dearly missed, especially with Jose "Joey Bats" Bautista, Russell Martin and Troy Tulowitzki aging toward the twilight of their careers. Toronto's offense will still be better than average, but it won't strike fear, as it had in the recent past. 

On the flip side, this is the best Jays rotation I've seen in quite some time. Aaron Sanchez has the highest upside of the group and is the only true "stud" in terms of stuff, while veterans Marco Estrada and J.A. Happ have aged like fine wine. Talk about "figuring it out" out of nowhere. Estrada gets by with a deceptive over-the-top delivery combined with slow, slower and slowest, but I suspect Happ is on something. Guy used to be a 5th starter/quadruple A player for the Phillies (throwing 88-90), and now he's an AL Cy Young candidate in the toughest offensive division in the game (throwing 93-95)? I'm sorry. Ya can't fool me. 

The rotation rounds out with Marcus Stroman, who is a gamer that isn't as electric as many projected him to be, and Francisco Liriano who is definitely worth a shot as your 5th starter. Overall, the Jays are solid, but they won't be separating themselves from the pack. As we know, the Red Sox, Jays, Orioles and Yankees beat each other up all season long. 

3. New York Yankees:  I guess this ranking is a little controversial. I was going to put the Orioles here because that's the safe way to go, but I wonder if another Wild Card game loss was just too much for Baltimore to take. Buck Showwalter blew the season by leaving Zach Britton unused in the bullpen, and now they have injuries and question marks heading into the new campaign. Anyway, this section is supposed to be about the Yankees.

I'm putting the Yanks here because big league baseball really boils down to two things: You have to hit with runners in scoring position and hold on to close leads. Hitting with RISP can be random from season to season for any given club, but I KNOW the Yankees can hold leads with Dellin Betances and Aroldis Chapman at the back of their bullpen. The Royals did it with Kelvin Herrera, Wade Davis and Greg Holland a couple seasons ago, and the Indians did it last year with Bryan Shaw, Andrew Miller and Cody Allen. Stud bullpens have become immensely valuable; the only question is...who will be that third guy for the Yanks? I think Tyler Clippard is bordering on horrendous. 

Embed from Getty Images

Offensively, the big question around the league is can Gary Sanchez repeat his astounding production from the second half of 2016? Talk about carrying an entire offense. We've seen Yoenis Cespedes do similar things for the Mets. I think Sanchez is a real deal, but I question his support in this lineup. Jacoby Ellsbury and Matt Holliday should be fine, but Didi Gregorius and Brett Gardner are the ones who need to step up. I've been impressed with Didi's development, whereas Gardner has been trending in the opposite direction for a couple years now. This is a bit of a strange team. Could go either way. 

4. Baltimore Orioles:  Zach Britton is having oblique issues and Chris Tillman is already on the shelf. This team doesn't have enough quality arms to withstand such major concerns. Manny Machado, Mark Trumbo and Chris "Crush" Davis will look to carry this high-powered offense, though you never know what you're going to get with Trumbo and Crush. Sure they have absolutely ridiculous pure power, but their strikeout-stuffed slumps can stall you. Trumbo slumped less than ever before last season. Will his stats normalize this year?

However, in the end, offense won't be this club's problem. Their starting pitching is super shaky. I still see Ubaldo Jimenez and Wade Miley penciled into slots. Yuck. This is a team that is clearly built upon offense + bullpen -- with Britton, Darren O'Day, Brad Brach and Mychal Givens -- which is an atypical construction, though we've seen it a bit more in the AL in recent years. It's almost as if the GMs and baseball ops people are saying, "Everyone in the league mashes, so starting pitching is irrelevant." We'll see if there's any truth to that notion. The Orioles' success will be dependent on their own mashing. 

5. Tampa Bay Rays:  I love an easy one: They'll pitch well enough (as always), but in the long run, won't hit enough to truly compete with the Red Sox, Jays and Orioles. 

AMERICAN LEAGUE CENTRAL

1. Cleveland Indians:  Terry Francona's boys are a no-brainer atop this division, though I always like the Tigers better than most. The Indians are a complete team, top to bottom, and now they welcome the aforementioned Edwin Encarnacion to the middle of their already solid lineup. Their fingers are crossed about Michael Brantley's return as well.

Offensively, Jason Kipnis, Francisco Lindor and Carlos Santana were Cleveland's reliable performers last year, while Lonnie Chisenhall, Jose Ramirez and Tyler Naquin provided sparks at different times. Add Encarnacion and Brantley to that mix, and this offense will certainly be productive enough to win a second-straight division title.

In their rotation, everyone fits perfectly into their respective slots. Corey Kluber is a legitimate ace, Carlos Carrasco is an immensely talented No. 2, and so on down the line through Danny Salazar, Trevor Bauer and Josh Tomlin. Relative to their rotation slots, they can all be considered elite.

The Indians' bullpen should again be fantastic with Bryan Shaw, Andrew Miller and Cody Allen at the back. There's absolutely no reason to doubt repeat success from this club. It would take a slew of devastating injuries for them to disappoint.

2. Detroit Tigers:  This is a well-rounded roster, with the exception being the bullpen arms leading up to one of the game's all-time great closers, Francisco "K-Rod" Rodriguez, who still finds a way to get it done.

Offensively, there's no way to argue with the nucleus of Miguel Cabrera, Ian Kinsler, J.D. Martinez, Justin Upton and Victor Martinez. A wonderful balance of batting average plus power. In their rotation, you have to like the threesome of Justin Verlander, Jordan Zimmermann and Michael Fulmer. So basically the question is...will the Tigers hold their leads in the middle innings, during the bridge from their starters to K-Rod?

Time will tell. They'll be in the AL Wild Card mix.

3. Kansas City Royals:  I don't love this team on paper, but I think their championship experience and general competitiveness will keep them ahead of the White Sox and Twins. Kansas City's offense seems light without Kendrys Morales (casualty this offseason) and Ben Zobrist (year before), and I don't like the additions of Jorge Soler and Brandon Moss. Too many strikeouts. Too many easy outs. Too many sub-par major league at bats.

Ned Yost's starting pitching is average with Danny Duffy, Ian Kennedy and Jason Hammel expected to lead the way, and their once-dominant bullpen isn't nearly as intimidating. The Royals' World Series days are a thing of the past.

4. Chicago White Sox 
5. Minnesota Twins

I don't like either of these teams. Chicago's starting pitching is shaky with a good-enough bullpen, while Minnesota's pitching is laughable top to bottom. These clubs have been struggling to get over the hump in recent years, and I don't see much changing this time around. Both teams should hit better than they pitch, as the White Sox still have Jose Abreu, Todd Frazier and Melky Cabrera, while the Twins cross their fingers, looking for upside production from Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton and Max Kepler.

My guess is the Twins will hit better than the ChiSox, while the latter will pitch better because of their bullpen led by David Robertson and Nate Jones. Neither club will compete with the Indians or Tigers in this division.

AMERICAN LEAGUE WEST

1. Texas Rangers:  This division was a tough one. I liked the Rangers' lineup better with Carlos Beltran in it, and now he's suiting up for the rival Astros. However, in the end, Texas is more versatile than any of its primary competitors.

Offensively, they'll be carried by Adrian Beltre, Rougned Odor and Jonathan Lucroy, with questionable support from wild cards Mike Napoli, Carlos Gomez and Shin-Soo Choo, three guys in the latter third of their careers. Napoli's power production may have been fluky last season and if Gomez is truly good again, then he has to be back on the juice. That's roid rage if I've ever seen it. 

Texas' rotation is solid with Yu Darvish, Cole Hamels, Martin Perez and A.J. Griffin, and their bullpen is very strong, boasting great stuff from Matt Bush, Jeremy Jeffress and Sam Dyson. This is a good all-around club, but the Astros and Mariners should be right there. This should be a three-way division race. 

Embed from Getty Images

2. Houston Astros:  This lineup is scary with Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Carlos Beltran and George Springer leading the assault. When you have four reliable bats like that -- a nice mix of youth, experience, power and athleticism -- that takes the pressure off your hit-or-miss guys. In this case, the second set of bats are Brian McCann, Josh Reddick, Yulieski Gurriel and Alex Bregman. With a lineup this deep, there is literally no pressure on Gurriel and Bregman, two guys who are new to the bigs with tremendous power potential. This lineup is just frightful, especially with a left-field fence that's about 300 feet. 

Unfortunately, this club can't run away because its pitching is suspect, if I'm being polite. I'll buy into Lance McCullers (if healthy), but Dallas Keuchel, Collin McHugh and Mike Fiers have all peaked at different times in recent years. They aren't scaring opposing bats in the AL West, trust me. 

Lastly, Houston's bullpen is arguably the weakest of the AL contenders. Ken Giles has always been highly-touted for his high 90s heater, but he's only had short streaks of success as a closer. That's to be expected in various situations around the league because closer is the most volatile position, but Will Harris and Luke Gregerson don't inspire confidence as the safety nets on the depth chart. 

Like the Orioles, this club will have to hit its way to the Promised Land. 

3. Seattle Mariners:  Their starting outfield of Jarrod Dyson, Leonys Martin and Mitch Haniger is just bizarre to me. Obviously Dyson is intended to be the legs, Haniger is the bat and Martin is supposed to be a mild combination of both -- but is this an outfield of a club that's ready to outperform the Rangers and Astros?

Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz and Kyle Seager will again be asked to carry the offensive load, while "King" Felix Hernandez and Hisashi Iwakuma continue to sit atop Seattle's rotation. Felix's velocity is rapidly declining, so mercurial lefties James Paxton and/or Drew Smyly may have to step up. Both southpaws have been wildly inconsistent over the past couple seasons. 

In the end, I can (mostly) get behind the Mariners' offense and starting pitching, but their bullpen is a MAJOR concern. Young closer Edwin Diaz is their only plus reliever (if I'm being generous because he doesn't have much of a track record), and their second-best -- the sometimes shaky Steve Cishek -- is beginning the season on the DL. This team has a playoff shot if everything breaks right, but in my opinion, they're a little behind the eight ball. 

4. Oakland Athletics:  I have a gut feeling Billy Beane's boys are going to hit well this season. We all suspect that steroids are an integral part of Oakland's "Moneyball" system -- Jason Giambi, Miguel Tejada, Eric Chavez, Billy Koch, Bartolo Colon, Scott Kazmir, Rich Hill, Stephen Vogt and now probably Khris Davis -- so I think we'll see some "surprising" production from newcomers Rajai Davis, Trevor Plouffe and Matt Joyce

That doesn't change the fact that their starting pitching is shitty. Sonny Gray battled injuries and took a major step backward last season, and he's going to start this year on the DL with a lat strain. That means Kendall Graveman will again be asked to carry this staff, and he's just OK. He pitched well for my fantasy team last season, but he throws 90 and his offspeed stuff is unspectacular. The rest of Beane's starters are laughable and not worth my words. 

Their bullpen should be workable with vets like Ryan Madson, Sean Doolittle, Santiago Casilla and John Axford. A few guys approaching retirement there; but good enough. The A's aren't a contender unless their starting pitchers juice up like the Monstars in Space Jam

5. Los Angeles Angels:  Some franchises are so poorly managed that it makes knowledgeable baseball people cringe. I'm a knowledgeable baseball person, and my stomach hurts the instant I think about the disaster that are the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.

Can you imagine having the best position player in his physical prime, and yet your club keeps getting worse and worse, year after year? In theory, when you have a true franchise player like Mike Trout, you should be able to build something special around him. Instead, GM Billy Eppler goes out and grabs Luis Valbuena and Danny Espinosa, so they can strand Trout every time he's on base. I value professional at bats, and Valbuena and Espinosa are two of the LEAST professional hitters in the game. Holes in their swings like you wouldn't believe. Two of the easiest strikeouts in the league. 

After Garrett Richards -- who I like and project to bounce back nicely this season -- the Angels' rotation is a trash pile consisting of journeymen and soft tossers. Speaking of juice...Matt Shoemaker was averaging 87-88 two seasons ago, but jumped to 93 last year. Magically, his stats improved. Weird how that happens. 

Annnnyway, the Angels aren't going anywhere. Steve Jobs would be appalled by the management of this organization. 

NATIONAL LEAGUE EAST

1. Washington Nationals
2. New York Mets

Embed from Getty Images

Oooh weeeeee, this was a close one. I'm taking the Nats over the long haul of the regular season because I really like what they've done to plug their lineup holes over the past two years. A few years ago I never really considered them a contender because they had too many guys who could be pitched to (for the Mets, that's Jay Bruce, Lucas Duda and Travis d'Arnaud). Now, in addition to prized incumbents Bryce Harper and Anthony Rendon, they have Daniel Murphy, Trea Turner, Adam Eaton and Matt Wieters. This fear-inducing lineup appears to be in the wrong league, does it not?

On the flip side, the Nats lack the bullpen stability that Jeurys Familia and Addison Reed provide for Terry Collins' Mets. Washington is all-in on offense and starting pitching, and that may come back to bite them in the postseason (though I expect GM Mike Rizzo will be on the market for a true closer throughout the year). The Mets are also deeper in starting pitching, and that is important when both clubs have injury concerns like Matt Harvey, Stephen Strasburg and Jacob deGrom

It's splitting hairs between these two teams, but the Nats' bats will choke less than the Mets. Washington will hit with more consistency under pressure. 

3. Atlanta Braves:  Just as I had a gut feeling about the Houston Rockets heading into the NBA season, a similar feeling is festering about the Braves. I like the logic behind what they have done. Putting Matt Kemp behind Freddie Freeman turned this into an entirely different club last season, as they were one of the NL's best down the stretch. They have a nice mixture of "win now" and "prepare for later." 

Brandon Phillips, Nick Markakis, Bartolo Colon, R.A. Dickey and Jaime Garcia are intended to help you win this season, with rapidly-approaching expiration dates. Dansby Swanson, Adonis Garcia, Mike Foltynewicz, Arodys Vizcaino and Mauricio Cabrera set you up for later. 

I like a front office that makes logical decisions. You don't have to reinvent the wheel. Find a nice mixture of youngsters, primetime guys and vets. That's always been the key. The magic key isn't inside a tangential algorithm. 

Keep your eye on this club. I'm not sleeping on them as a Mets fan.

4. Miami Marlins:  Can't really say anything negative about the Marlins' lineup. Christian Yelich, Giancarlo Stanton and Marcell Ozuna continue to provide a solid nucleus for Miami's offense, while Martin Prado, J.T. Realmuto, Dee Gordon and Justin Bour should be quite helpful in supporting roles.

The more I look at this club's roster, the more I realize they aren't bad at all. The NL East is going to be a competitive nightmare this season. The glaring issue for the Marlins is of course, the devastating death of electric ace Jose Fernandez. Dan Straily and Edinson Volquez should be decent, cost-effective additions to the rotation, but you simply cannot replace a star in his prime like Jose.

However, Miami has an excellent bullpen featuring A.J. Ramos, Kyle Barraclough, Brad Ziegler, David Phelps, Junichi Tazawa and Dustin McGowan. All right-handers, but they all have a lot to offer in their respective roles. It pains me to say it...but there are 4 playoff contenders in the NL East.

5. Philadelphia Phillies:  On a smaller scale than the Braves, this is another organization whose personnel moves are starting to make some sense. Unfortunately, the Phillies are trending in the right direction when their division is at its strongest in years.

Howie Kendrick and Michael Saunders are logical veteran additions who should be able to reap the benefits of Citizens Bank Park's little league dimensions. In the pitching department, the same goes for the pick-ups of Clay Buchholz and Joaquin Benoit. Philly's front office strategy is clear: Maybe these guys can help us win now, but even if they don't, we can deal them to contenders at the trade deadline. Makes plenty of sense to me.

The strength of this club is its starting rotation, with the addition of Buchholz -- who should find the NL to be a walk in the park after suffering for so long in the brutal AL East/Fenway Park -- to fellow vet Jeremy Hellickson and 3 up-and-comers in Vince Velasquez, Jerad Eickhoff and Aaron Nola. I don't expect the Phils to roll over for anyone this year.

NATIONAL LEAGUE CENTRAL

Embed from Getty Images

1. Chicago Cubs:  I think we're all pretty familiar with the Cubs' personnel at this point, so there are really only two keys to discuss:

(1) On the positive side, the 3-1 comeback against the Indians in the World Series allows them to turn the corner, mentally, as a group. They looked mentally feeble the preceding postseason in a gutless sweep at the hands of my Mets, and they weren't exactly convincing in series wins over the weaker Giants and Dodgers. Now, mentally, they should finally have some of that necessary invincibility. This will carry them a long way; similar to the Royals' follow-up the season after they reached the World Series for the first time in a long time. 

(2) On the negative side, I'm not so sure Wade Davis is the answer in the closer's role. He's been overworked for many years now, and his dominance may finally have worn away. He had forearm issues last year, and he's been getting shellacked in the spring. Hector Rondon and Pedro Strop better be ready. I could see Theo Epstein snatching a headline closer at the deadline again. 

All things considered, we know this is one of the teams to beat. 

2. St. Louis Cardinals:  I mean, they always just find a way, don't they?

Familiar faces return, with the notable additions being Dexter Fowler (free agency) and Lance Lynn (injury). Their starting pitching should be especially strong, and they always seem to have the mental toughness to hit with RISP. They'll be a central part of the abnormally deep NL Wild Card race. 

3. Pittsburgh Pirates:  My prediction for this year's Orioles is kind of what happened to the Pirates last season. You can only fight so hard for a stupid one-game playoff for so long. Pittsburgh has taken multiple losses in recent NL Wild Card games, and last season they just didn't have any fight left down the stretch. Unfortunately, they are going to be in a similar position in the standings this time around. 

This organization continues to revolve around the talented outfield trio of Starling Marte, Andrew McCutchen and Gregory Polanco. I liked their rotation pick-up of Ivan Nova last year (I tend to like any NL pitching acquisition of a guy with decent-to-good stuff who under-performed in the AL, see the aforementioned Clay Buchholz), and he'll support ace Gerrit Cole as youngsters Jameson Taillon and Tyler Glasnow continue to develop. This is a rotation with good, pure stuff. 

Bullpen is questionable patchwork, with Daniel Hudson and Tony Watson dueling for the closer's role. This is a nice team, but without even getting to the NL West, they're already in a Wild Card mosh pit with the Mets, Braves, Marlins and Cardinals. The sledding will be slippery and difficult. 

4. Milwaukee Brewers:  I see some good things here, but their overall talent level isn't significant enough to stay in the playoff hunt. Ryan Braun is a steady force in the heart of the order; Jonathan Villar and Hernan Perez bring speed, youth and exuberance, while Eric Thames, Travis Shaw and Keon Broxton are the wild cards. Thames was once a 4th or 5th outfielder for the Blue Jays, but he became a megastar overseas. He's another clear steroid candidate, so he should be in for a career year in the MLB. 

I like the feisty Junior Guerra atop their rotation, but the rest are nothing to write home about. Their bullpen is predominantly a pile of rejects. 

5. Cincinnati Reds:  I'm getting bored and don't feel like writing much more, and fittingly, the Reds aren't a team to waste too many words on. Joey Votto, Adam Duvall and a bunch of scraps. Their ace, Anthony DeSclafani (who I actually do like), just got shut down as well. Should be a long season. 

NATIONAL LEAGUE WEST

I'll let the photos do the talking here...

5. San Diego Padres

Embed from Getty Images


4. Colorado Rockies

Embed from Getty Images


3. San Francisco Giants

Embed from Getty Images


2. Arizona Diamondbacks

Embed from Getty Images


1. Los Angeles Dodgers

Embed from Getty Images

THE POSTSEASON

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Wild Card Game:  Mets over Giants, 3-1
NLDS:  Mets over Cubs, 3-2 and Nationals over Dodgers, 3-1
NLCS:  Mets over Nationals, 4-2

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Wild Card Game:  Tigers over Astros, 6-4
ALDS:  Indians over Tigers, 3-1 and Red Sox over Rangers, 3-1
ALCS:  Indians over Red Sox, 4-1

WORLD SERIES

CLEVELAND INDIANS OVER THE NEW YORK METS, 4-1.

Our Mets fall short once again. What a surprise.