If you're entering in medias res -- in the middle of the action -- then don't forget to check out Part I of this series, which featured players 250 down to 240. No time to waste; let's get right back into it...
239. Michael Wacha, SP, Cardinals: Came up as one of the most-hyped young hurlers in the game, and he didn't disappoint with consecutive ERAs of 2.78, 3.20 and 3.38. He took a major step back in 2016, but started to regain his better form last season, striking out close to a batter per inning. He could really right the ship this year. We'll see which version of Wacha-flocka we get.
238. Jose Urena, SP, Marlins: A power sinkerballer who impressed me with his live arm out of the bullpen in '16. His numbers weren't good, but he was still feeling his way around the majors, figuring out the optimal way to use his unpredictable stuff. He really settled in last season as a starter, going 14-7 on a non-contender with a much-improved 3.82 ERA. Urena will serve as Miami's ace, and he can be particularly effective if he attacks the zone and lets his natural sink illicit ground balls and double plays. His movement has some similarities to Jeurys Familia.
237. Wilson Ramos, C, Rays: Tampa has stripped away most of its "name" talent, so Ramos is undoubtedly one of its pivotal power bats. As one of the most dangerous offensive catchers in the league, Ramos tore the cover off the ball in '16, stacking 22 HRs and 80 RBI up against his shiny .307 BA. Those are numbers we simply don't see from catchers these days. Unfortunately, his first season with the Rays was hampered by a lengthy recovery from a torn ACL. It wasn't all bad, though, as Ramos limped out to a batting average under .200 before sprinting to the finish line at .260 with 11 HRs in just 64 games. He was excellent down the stretch. I have a good feeling about him this year.
236. Eric Thames, 1B, Brewers: He was the best power hitter in baseball for about a month and a half, before big-league pitchers and coaches re-figured him out. He played his way out of the league once, and his putrid second half of '17 made us all wonder again. Thames finished with 31 blasts, though, so we'll see what he's really made of this season. My guess is Domingo Santana finds his way into the everyday lineup. That may leave Thames out in the cold.
235. Jedd Gyorko, 3B, Cardinals: Has been a fairly reliable power source over the past two seasons or so. Averaging around .260 with 25 homers and 200 TBs. However, he wasn't in today's Opening Day lineup against my Mets. Maybe the Cards could have used him.
234. Dellin Betances, RP, Yankees: You wonder how a kid with stuff like this could completely lose his confidence. Did you know he's been an AL all-star the past four seasons in a row? He has the respect and awe of teammates, opposing players, coaches and fans. And yet, in the second half of '17 and the postseason, he completely lost the strikezone. His WHIP was a career-worst 1.22 -- which would be quite decent for many others -- and he fell behind David Robertson, Tommy Kahnle and (sometimes) Chad Green in the Yankees' bullpen pecking order. Dellin Betances throws 97-100 MPH with one of the most vicious hammers in the game. If he doesn't regain his dominant form, that's a damn shame.
233. Brandon Belt, 1B, Giants: So I was doing some scouting for the MLB fantasy season, at which point I stumbled upon Fangraphs' 2018 projections...and they had Belt reaaally high. I mean like, I did a double-take. Fangraphs, this very respectable, analytics-based baseball site, projected Belt to outperform Gary Sanchez, Joey Gallo, Cody Bellinger, Yoenis Cespedes and even his own teammate and captain, Buster Posey. I can't go that far and follow them off the ledge, but I will note that Belt hit 18 homers in just 382 ABs, CRUSHING any and all of his prior production paces. This is a lefty bat who was averaging 18 homers in 500-525 at bats; so, to do the same in 382 ABs, that does catch one's eye. The additions of Andrew McCutchen and Evan Longoria help in lineup protection, as well.
232. Jose Bautista, OF, Free Agent: Poor Joey Bats can't even find a team. How quickly the mighty fall from grace, no? This is a cocky, power-hitting ballplayer who was an all-star as recently as 2015. He was an all-star every season from 2010 through '15. He put up 40 HRs and 114 RBI just three seasons ago. Last year he mashed 23 dingers, but his BA dropped all the way down to .203. Seems like everyone thinks he's finished. Something tells me he will "find a new workout regimen" and help a contender during the second half. I haven't given up on you yet, Joey. I know you find creative ways to increase production.
231. Stephen Piscotty, OF, Athletics: OMG what a fuss Billy Beane made over this kid. He had been making calls to John Mozeliak of the Cardinals as far back as August. Goin' crazy over a kid who hit .235 last season and got demoted to the minors. Easy there, Billy Boy. Moneyball's at it again. On the bright side, Piscotty was always a highly-touted talent, and in '16 he hit 22 HRs and drove in 85 runs. Is this another Beane-inspired addition to Shakespeare's Much Ado About Nothing? Too early to say, but I love rooting against the perennial loser who was portrayed by Brad Pitt. Maybe Ryan Gosling will play John Frascella in a movie.
230. Jameson Taillon, SP, Pirates: More empty hype, here? As the second overall selection in the 2010 MLB Draft, Taillon has always been viewed as a big-ticket item. We'll give him an OBVIOUS pass for last season's discouraging results -- Jameson courageously battled cancer -- but I just don't know enough to rocket him up my rankings. Only 43 big-league starts. A 3.98 career ERA. He has the raw stuff and the toughness, so let's see if he puts it all together.
No. 229 down, coming soon...
Thursday, March 29, 2018
Monday, March 26, 2018
MLB Top 250 Players, Part I: Can Overmatched Ohtani Squeak His Way Onto My List?
In June of 2017, I posted my last MLB Top 200 players list, and it was met by some pretty harsh criticism from members of my very own Hot Takes Team, including senior analysts Steven Summer and Frank Valeriano. Some of the primary arguments revolved around Robbie Ray vs. Jake Arrieta and Freddie Freeman vs. Joey Votto. You can see how difficult it is to produce a list like this, when we're splitting hairs to that degree. This is truly an impossible task.
When prepping a list like this in the middle of the season (like last time), the general logic is as follows: you have to take the production you've seen to that point, then project where that particular player is headed. Is the guy performing over his head in the first couple months? Well, then, you don't want to jump the gun and overrate them. Same idea with underrating a reliable player who is off to a slow start.
But now, starting from scratch at the beginning of a season, things change a bit. Here's the general criteria for this list:
1. 45% of the weight will be placed upon 2017 production.
2. 45% of the weight will be placed upon projecting the player's 2018 production, taking history into account, as well as the player's health and team situation.
3. 10% of the weight will be placed upon 2016 production.
Almost ready to get started, but one VERY important note:
Last season, the Major League RECORD for home runs was broken. Thirty teams and hundreds of players combined to knock 6,105 balls out of the park. As a frame of reference, the previous record -- set in 2000, during The Steroid Era -- was 5,693. Four hundred twelve MORE home runs hit than the most explosive season of The Steroid Era.
Suspicious, anyone? Whether it's juiced bats, balls, players or friendly parks, something is pushing home run totals through the roof. In 2016, there were 5,693 dingers, good for third in the history of the game. Do we want to give "launch angle" all of the credit for this home run revolution? Feel free to laugh that one off, but at the end of the day, we have to bump up the value of quality pitchers. With balls flying out of the park at a record pace, good, consistent pitching will be harder to find than ever.
That means, when in doubt, I'm leaning in favor of the man on the mound. All right, let's get to work...
250. Shohei Ohtani, SP and OF, Angels: Offensively, the early reviews of Ohtani have been scathing and merciless, but we're talking about a raw, 23-year old kid who will obviously need time to adjust to curveballs and sliders at the major league level. No one expects offensive production out of the gate; but on the mound, his strikeout-to-walk ratio has been excellent, and his pure stuff is pretty good. I mean, we're talking about number 250 here, not the top 100; this is a mega-priced, two-way player who deserves a back-end spot on spec alone.
249. Ozzie Albies, 2B, Braves: Debuted in the bigs as a 20-year old baby, but played like a grown man hitting .286 with 6 HRS, 28 RBI and 8 SBs in just 217 ABs. Obviously he's young and green, but Albies is expected to be a high-upside fantasy play at his position this season. He'll get every opportunity to shine on an Atlanta club that remains in rebuilding mode.
248. Gerardo Parra, OF, Rockies: A solid lefty bat whose decent numbers jumped to "quite strong" (Meet the Parents, anyone?) upon his career transition to Coors Field. His .309 BA was tied for 9th in the NL, slightly ahead of big names like Freddie Freeman, Anthony Rendon, Paul Goldschmidt and Kris Bryant. There isn't much else to Parra's game, though.
247. Yasmany Tomas, OF and 3B, Diamondbacks: Injury derailed his 2017 campaign and there are unrelenting concerns about his defensive ineptitude, but this big boy bashed 31 homers in '16. Tomas has a pretty swing, ton of pop and a second chance due to the unfortunate injury to Steven Souza. I have a feeling he's going to take advantage of this window of opportunity. Yasmany is a cocky hitter and he has the thunder to back it up.
246. Lonnie Chisenhall, OF and 3B, Indians: Just a professional hitter who can never seem to stay completely healthy. Lonnie is one of only a couple dozen who hit at least .280 in 3 of the past 4 seasons. In today's era of flamethrower after flamethrower, handled optimally by managers who are better prepared than ever, respectable batting averages are becoming increasingly more rare. Lonnie is comfortable hitting at the big-league level, and he's always been willing to play whatever position the organization thrusts him into.
245. Neil Walker, 2B, Yankees: Another sneaky and savvy pick-up by mastermind GM Brian Cashman. Walker was expected to do some heavy lifting for weak Mets lineups the past couple seasons, but now he's an afterthought behind studs like Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, Giancarlo Stanton and Didi Gregorius. No one's going to be particularly worried about pitching to Walker at the bottom of this order, and he should be able to capitalize as a seasoned switch hitter reaping the benefits of hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium. He's already a mellow player; so he should be especially comfortable in this low-profile, last-minute signing situation. Stanton and Aaron Boone will be the ones feeling the pressure in the Bronx.
244. Max Kepler, OF, Twins: Minnesota has built itself a nice, fun, lovable little team over the course of the past few years. Along with Miguel Sano, Eddie Rosario and another youngster you'll be seeing in a future installment of this list, Kepler is at the heart of every Twins fan's renewed optimism. He's more of an empty power hitter than I'd like him to be -- meaning he doesn't hit for average and most of his RBI come via the longball -- but his BA jumped 8 points from one season to the next. Minnesota is one of the toughest places to hit homers, but Kepler's raw power led him to 17 HRs in just 396 ABs ('16) and 19 HRs in 511 ABs last year. I'd say he's heading towards 25 HRs and 80 RBI this season, and in another, friendlier park that could be 30 and 90.
243. Manuel Margot, OF, Padres: Here's a nice up-and-coming ballplayer who finished 6th in the NL Rookie of the Year voting. Margot is a fun kid to watch; hits the ball hard, blazes around the bases and impacts the game in just about every way possible. It's been a long struggle for San Diego and its fans, but things are finally looking up a bit with Margot, Wil Myers and new franchise cornerstone, Eric Hosmer. I like Margot's flair and natural ability. I could definitely see him moving up next time.
242. Brandon Drury, 3B/2B, Yankees: See the first sentence of the Walker paragraph. Brandon is only 25 years old, and over the past two seasons he averaged roughly .275 with 15 HRs, 60 RBI and 35 doubles. That was particularly strong production out of the second base spot, but he'll be asked to man the hot corner this year. Either way, Drury is a young player who has already shown flashes of very useful production, and like Walker, he'll be operating as an afterthought to opposing pitchers. This was another low-risk, high-upside acquisition by Cashman.
241. Alex Reyes, P, Cardinals: This kid has top-five stuff in the world. In his 2016 introduction to the bigs, he went 4-1 with a 1.57 ERA and 52 Ks in 46 IP. His average fastball was 96.5 MPH. He's coming off a major injury so the Cards will be watching his pitches and innings, but in a couple seasons we could be talking about a top-50 player here.
240. Kole Calhoun, OF, Angels: A solid, spunky all-around player who should benefit from the additions of Zack Cozart and Ian Kinsler, not to mention Justin Upton for an entire season. This Angels lineup has boasted Mike Trout for a number of years now, but they finally have the lineup protection that could push them into a legitimate playoff threat.
Players 239 down to 230, coming VERY soon...
When prepping a list like this in the middle of the season (like last time), the general logic is as follows: you have to take the production you've seen to that point, then project where that particular player is headed. Is the guy performing over his head in the first couple months? Well, then, you don't want to jump the gun and overrate them. Same idea with underrating a reliable player who is off to a slow start.
But now, starting from scratch at the beginning of a season, things change a bit. Here's the general criteria for this list:
1. 45% of the weight will be placed upon 2017 production.
2. 45% of the weight will be placed upon projecting the player's 2018 production, taking history into account, as well as the player's health and team situation.
3. 10% of the weight will be placed upon 2016 production.
Almost ready to get started, but one VERY important note:
Last season, the Major League RECORD for home runs was broken. Thirty teams and hundreds of players combined to knock 6,105 balls out of the park. As a frame of reference, the previous record -- set in 2000, during The Steroid Era -- was 5,693. Four hundred twelve MORE home runs hit than the most explosive season of The Steroid Era.
Suspicious, anyone? Whether it's juiced bats, balls, players or friendly parks, something is pushing home run totals through the roof. In 2016, there were 5,693 dingers, good for third in the history of the game. Do we want to give "launch angle" all of the credit for this home run revolution? Feel free to laugh that one off, but at the end of the day, we have to bump up the value of quality pitchers. With balls flying out of the park at a record pace, good, consistent pitching will be harder to find than ever.
That means, when in doubt, I'm leaning in favor of the man on the mound. All right, let's get to work...
250. Shohei Ohtani, SP and OF, Angels: Offensively, the early reviews of Ohtani have been scathing and merciless, but we're talking about a raw, 23-year old kid who will obviously need time to adjust to curveballs and sliders at the major league level. No one expects offensive production out of the gate; but on the mound, his strikeout-to-walk ratio has been excellent, and his pure stuff is pretty good. I mean, we're talking about number 250 here, not the top 100; this is a mega-priced, two-way player who deserves a back-end spot on spec alone.
249. Ozzie Albies, 2B, Braves: Debuted in the bigs as a 20-year old baby, but played like a grown man hitting .286 with 6 HRS, 28 RBI and 8 SBs in just 217 ABs. Obviously he's young and green, but Albies is expected to be a high-upside fantasy play at his position this season. He'll get every opportunity to shine on an Atlanta club that remains in rebuilding mode.
248. Gerardo Parra, OF, Rockies: A solid lefty bat whose decent numbers jumped to "quite strong" (Meet the Parents, anyone?) upon his career transition to Coors Field. His .309 BA was tied for 9th in the NL, slightly ahead of big names like Freddie Freeman, Anthony Rendon, Paul Goldschmidt and Kris Bryant. There isn't much else to Parra's game, though.
247. Yasmany Tomas, OF and 3B, Diamondbacks: Injury derailed his 2017 campaign and there are unrelenting concerns about his defensive ineptitude, but this big boy bashed 31 homers in '16. Tomas has a pretty swing, ton of pop and a second chance due to the unfortunate injury to Steven Souza. I have a feeling he's going to take advantage of this window of opportunity. Yasmany is a cocky hitter and he has the thunder to back it up.
246. Lonnie Chisenhall, OF and 3B, Indians: Just a professional hitter who can never seem to stay completely healthy. Lonnie is one of only a couple dozen who hit at least .280 in 3 of the past 4 seasons. In today's era of flamethrower after flamethrower, handled optimally by managers who are better prepared than ever, respectable batting averages are becoming increasingly more rare. Lonnie is comfortable hitting at the big-league level, and he's always been willing to play whatever position the organization thrusts him into.
245. Neil Walker, 2B, Yankees: Another sneaky and savvy pick-up by mastermind GM Brian Cashman. Walker was expected to do some heavy lifting for weak Mets lineups the past couple seasons, but now he's an afterthought behind studs like Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, Giancarlo Stanton and Didi Gregorius. No one's going to be particularly worried about pitching to Walker at the bottom of this order, and he should be able to capitalize as a seasoned switch hitter reaping the benefits of hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium. He's already a mellow player; so he should be especially comfortable in this low-profile, last-minute signing situation. Stanton and Aaron Boone will be the ones feeling the pressure in the Bronx.
244. Max Kepler, OF, Twins: Minnesota has built itself a nice, fun, lovable little team over the course of the past few years. Along with Miguel Sano, Eddie Rosario and another youngster you'll be seeing in a future installment of this list, Kepler is at the heart of every Twins fan's renewed optimism. He's more of an empty power hitter than I'd like him to be -- meaning he doesn't hit for average and most of his RBI come via the longball -- but his BA jumped 8 points from one season to the next. Minnesota is one of the toughest places to hit homers, but Kepler's raw power led him to 17 HRs in just 396 ABs ('16) and 19 HRs in 511 ABs last year. I'd say he's heading towards 25 HRs and 80 RBI this season, and in another, friendlier park that could be 30 and 90.
243. Manuel Margot, OF, Padres: Here's a nice up-and-coming ballplayer who finished 6th in the NL Rookie of the Year voting. Margot is a fun kid to watch; hits the ball hard, blazes around the bases and impacts the game in just about every way possible. It's been a long struggle for San Diego and its fans, but things are finally looking up a bit with Margot, Wil Myers and new franchise cornerstone, Eric Hosmer. I like Margot's flair and natural ability. I could definitely see him moving up next time.
242. Brandon Drury, 3B/2B, Yankees: See the first sentence of the Walker paragraph. Brandon is only 25 years old, and over the past two seasons he averaged roughly .275 with 15 HRs, 60 RBI and 35 doubles. That was particularly strong production out of the second base spot, but he'll be asked to man the hot corner this year. Either way, Drury is a young player who has already shown flashes of very useful production, and like Walker, he'll be operating as an afterthought to opposing pitchers. This was another low-risk, high-upside acquisition by Cashman.
241. Alex Reyes, P, Cardinals: This kid has top-five stuff in the world. In his 2016 introduction to the bigs, he went 4-1 with a 1.57 ERA and 52 Ks in 46 IP. His average fastball was 96.5 MPH. He's coming off a major injury so the Cards will be watching his pitches and innings, but in a couple seasons we could be talking about a top-50 player here.
240. Kole Calhoun, OF, Angels: A solid, spunky all-around player who should benefit from the additions of Zack Cozart and Ian Kinsler, not to mention Justin Upton for an entire season. This Angels lineup has boasted Mike Trout for a number of years now, but they finally have the lineup protection that could push them into a legitimate playoff threat.
Players 239 down to 230, coming VERY soon...
Friday, March 16, 2018
NFL Free Agent Frenzy, Part III: Report Cards for Richard Sherman, Jimmy Graham and More...
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Our "Hot Takes Team" sincerely thanks you for your questions and comments about the first two editions of this fast-paced NFL series. A brief recap, before we get into Round 3:
Part I: Covered Kirk Cousins, Sammy Watkins, Case Keenum, Sam Bradford, Andrew Norwell, Allen Robinson and more.
Part II: Covered Malcolm Butler, Danny Amendola, Trumaine Johnson, Muhammad Wilkerson, Josh McCown, Teddy Bridgewater and more.
Who else got PAAAAID? Let's find out...
1. LT Nate Solder gets 4 years, $62 million from the Giants.
New GM Dave Gettleman and head coach Pat Shurmur look to be starting from the ground up. A former New England Patriot, Solder has long been considered one of the best and most reliable tackles in the game. We've all heard announcers say something like, "Tom Brady looks like he has enough time to read War and Peace back there." Well, of course, Solder was a major contributor to that protection. Now, he'll be asked to protect Eli Manning -- or perhaps a big-name rookie?
GIANTS GRADE: A-
2. RB Jonathan Stewart gets 2 years, $6.9 million, also from the Giants.
While we're on the topic of the Giants and their front line, we turn our attention to Jon Stewart, who will be running behind Mr. Solder. I think Stewy is a replacement-level player at this stage of his lengthy NFL career. Running backs historically have very short lifespans, and he will be entering his 11th season at football's highest level. He's coming from a sophisticated and successful rushing scheme in Carolina, so this could be a difficult transition. He's CLEARLY an upgrade over Paul Perkins; but in a vacuum, I'm not sure he's much better than Orleans Darkwa.
GIANTS GRADE: C
3. RB Jerick McKinnon inks a 4-year, $30 million deal with the 49ers.
Ooooh, that Kyle Shanahan is sneaky. This is a killer fit. McKinnon has always impressed me when he gets extended opportunities -- even though it took an Adrian Peterson injury the first time, and Dalvin Cook the next -- and we know his new head coach will find creative ways to get him the ball in space. McKinnon moves decisively, and with a purpose, and he's much better in the redzone than you'd expect. He may be one of the NFL's true breakout players this season.
It's funny...I started writing this yesterday (but didn't finish), so when I got home I was catching up on signings. In the process, fittingly enough, I read this quote from Coach Shanahan, "I got lost watching McKinnon's game tape. There's so many things I liked about him; just visualizing how I would use him and the stuff that we would do."
Sounds like a deadly duo is about to get to work.
49ERS GRADE: A
HOT TAKES TEAM: "Shanahan is real smart. Jerick McKinnon." - Me
"[The Jets] have 3 backs, John." - Billy Valeriano
"Come on, Elijah McGuire is a clown and Bilal Powell is aging."
"I think McGuire showed some good burst, and you can't invest a lot in that position." - Billy
"Actually, the teams that did well last season had a lot invested in running back." - Me
"Just 2-3 interchangeable guys. Thunder and Lightning combos don't work because of predictability." - DJ Toby
"Patriots had Lewis, White, Burkhead, Gillislee and Bolden. Eagles had Ajayi, Blount, Clement, Smallwood and Sproles. Cook, Murray and McKinnon for the Vikings." - Me
"John, McKinnon is a guy you add when you're close [to winning]." - Billy
I guess that isn't our Jets.
4. TE Jimmy Graham signs for 3 years, $30 million with the Packers.
My initial instinct is that this is fool's gold. When the Packers signed Martellus Bennett last season, I thought that was a great idea. When they had the highly-touted Jermichael Finley, I thought he would perform well. Neither ended up doing anything of note. Tight end just doesn't seem like an important passing option to head coach Mike McCarthy or Aaron Rodgers.
We all thought Seattle would eventually find a way to force-feed Graham, but it never really worked out. He spiked with some flashes of productivity, but never became a necessity to head coach Pete Carroll or Russell Wilson. On an empty field, Graham is still one of the best players at his position; but will he ever find another situation like New Orleans?
PACKERS GRADE: B-
5. CB Richard Sherman gets 3 years, $27 million from the 49ers.
I think everyone knows that Sherman's on the backside of his career, but Shanahan's 49ers are looking to get real serious, real quick. Jimmy Garoppolo, all alone, proved that he can win hotly-contested, tight games. Now McKinnon and Sherman are tossed into this very interesting mix.
Sherman will not rate among the best at his position, but I don't think that's his purpose in San Francisco. I think he's been signed to teach these kids about winning. To teach them about grinding out physical battles when a target is on your back. These 49ers are going to be a sexy pick this year, and their opponents will know all about the hype. Sherman is in San Fran to weather the storm.
49ERS GRADE: B
6. ILB Demario Davis signs for 3 years, $24 million with the Saints.
His results have been inconsistent throughout his career, but Demario is coming off a high-impact season with my Jets. He's a fantastic one-on-one tackler, and hopefully the Saints are catching him at exactly the right time. New Orleans is coming off its best defensive season in maybe 15-20 years. Demario should provide another productive presence.
SAINTS GRADE: B
7. WR Jordy Nelson inks a 2-year, $15 million deal with the Raiders.
Jon Gruden is laughing all the way to the metaphorical bank on this one. What an ABSOLUTE steal. Jordy is certainly injury-prone and there are questions about his performance without Rodgers, but at this price tag he's a total no-brainer. We know Gruden will coach him up, and I'm sure Derek Carr will enjoy Jordy on one side, with Amari Cooper on the other. There are contrasting -- but potentially favorable -- skillsets at play here.
RAIDERS GRADE: A-
8. TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins gets 2 years, $10 million from the Jaguars.
I think ASJ became a bit overrated in New York -- that's what happens when your team is projected to go 0-16, then you play halfway decent -- but this is a very affordable contract for Jacksonville, as they continue to change the public perception of a franchise that used to be the butt of the joke. I don't view ASJ as a top-tier tight end, but he's a reasonably good football player and the Jags paid a fair price for his services.
JAGUARS GRADE: B
HOT TAKES TEAM: "I think Eric Ebron is better than Seferian-Jenkins." - Me
"Ebron is a wayyyy better athlete; just can't stay healthy." - DJ
"I like him, but he probably wants a lot of money." - Billy
"He's the best available, though."
9. DT Haloti Ngata signs a 1-year, $3 million deal with the Eagles.
I know Haloti is an old man, but interior defensive linemen can have long lifespans like kickers, punters and (sometimes) quarterbacks. Has his play deteriorated this much, that he's only getting $3 mil for a season? Or is this well-liked vet looking for one last shot at a Super Bowl? Probably a little bit of both. Nevertheless, this particular Eagles group is defined by high-character guys. Ngata will fit right in.
EAGLES GRADE: B
Our "Hot Takes Team" sincerely thanks you for your questions and comments about the first two editions of this fast-paced NFL series. A brief recap, before we get into Round 3:
Part I: Covered Kirk Cousins, Sammy Watkins, Case Keenum, Sam Bradford, Andrew Norwell, Allen Robinson and more.
Part II: Covered Malcolm Butler, Danny Amendola, Trumaine Johnson, Muhammad Wilkerson, Josh McCown, Teddy Bridgewater and more.
Who else got PAAAAID? Let's find out...
1. LT Nate Solder gets 4 years, $62 million from the Giants.
New GM Dave Gettleman and head coach Pat Shurmur look to be starting from the ground up. A former New England Patriot, Solder has long been considered one of the best and most reliable tackles in the game. We've all heard announcers say something like, "Tom Brady looks like he has enough time to read War and Peace back there." Well, of course, Solder was a major contributor to that protection. Now, he'll be asked to protect Eli Manning -- or perhaps a big-name rookie?
GIANTS GRADE: A-
2. RB Jonathan Stewart gets 2 years, $6.9 million, also from the Giants.
While we're on the topic of the Giants and their front line, we turn our attention to Jon Stewart, who will be running behind Mr. Solder. I think Stewy is a replacement-level player at this stage of his lengthy NFL career. Running backs historically have very short lifespans, and he will be entering his 11th season at football's highest level. He's coming from a sophisticated and successful rushing scheme in Carolina, so this could be a difficult transition. He's CLEARLY an upgrade over Paul Perkins; but in a vacuum, I'm not sure he's much better than Orleans Darkwa.
GIANTS GRADE: C
3. RB Jerick McKinnon inks a 4-year, $30 million deal with the 49ers.
Ooooh, that Kyle Shanahan is sneaky. This is a killer fit. McKinnon has always impressed me when he gets extended opportunities -- even though it took an Adrian Peterson injury the first time, and Dalvin Cook the next -- and we know his new head coach will find creative ways to get him the ball in space. McKinnon moves decisively, and with a purpose, and he's much better in the redzone than you'd expect. He may be one of the NFL's true breakout players this season.
It's funny...I started writing this yesterday (but didn't finish), so when I got home I was catching up on signings. In the process, fittingly enough, I read this quote from Coach Shanahan, "I got lost watching McKinnon's game tape. There's so many things I liked about him; just visualizing how I would use him and the stuff that we would do."
Sounds like a deadly duo is about to get to work.
49ERS GRADE: A
HOT TAKES TEAM: "Shanahan is real smart. Jerick McKinnon." - Me
"[The Jets] have 3 backs, John." - Billy Valeriano
"Come on, Elijah McGuire is a clown and Bilal Powell is aging."
"I think McGuire showed some good burst, and you can't invest a lot in that position." - Billy
"Actually, the teams that did well last season had a lot invested in running back." - Me
"Just 2-3 interchangeable guys. Thunder and Lightning combos don't work because of predictability." - DJ Toby
"Patriots had Lewis, White, Burkhead, Gillislee and Bolden. Eagles had Ajayi, Blount, Clement, Smallwood and Sproles. Cook, Murray and McKinnon for the Vikings." - Me
"John, McKinnon is a guy you add when you're close [to winning]." - Billy
I guess that isn't our Jets.
4. TE Jimmy Graham signs for 3 years, $30 million with the Packers.
My initial instinct is that this is fool's gold. When the Packers signed Martellus Bennett last season, I thought that was a great idea. When they had the highly-touted Jermichael Finley, I thought he would perform well. Neither ended up doing anything of note. Tight end just doesn't seem like an important passing option to head coach Mike McCarthy or Aaron Rodgers.
We all thought Seattle would eventually find a way to force-feed Graham, but it never really worked out. He spiked with some flashes of productivity, but never became a necessity to head coach Pete Carroll or Russell Wilson. On an empty field, Graham is still one of the best players at his position; but will he ever find another situation like New Orleans?
PACKERS GRADE: B-
5. CB Richard Sherman gets 3 years, $27 million from the 49ers.
I think everyone knows that Sherman's on the backside of his career, but Shanahan's 49ers are looking to get real serious, real quick. Jimmy Garoppolo, all alone, proved that he can win hotly-contested, tight games. Now McKinnon and Sherman are tossed into this very interesting mix.
Sherman will not rate among the best at his position, but I don't think that's his purpose in San Francisco. I think he's been signed to teach these kids about winning. To teach them about grinding out physical battles when a target is on your back. These 49ers are going to be a sexy pick this year, and their opponents will know all about the hype. Sherman is in San Fran to weather the storm.
49ERS GRADE: B
6. ILB Demario Davis signs for 3 years, $24 million with the Saints.
His results have been inconsistent throughout his career, but Demario is coming off a high-impact season with my Jets. He's a fantastic one-on-one tackler, and hopefully the Saints are catching him at exactly the right time. New Orleans is coming off its best defensive season in maybe 15-20 years. Demario should provide another productive presence.
SAINTS GRADE: B
7. WR Jordy Nelson inks a 2-year, $15 million deal with the Raiders.
Jon Gruden is laughing all the way to the metaphorical bank on this one. What an ABSOLUTE steal. Jordy is certainly injury-prone and there are questions about his performance without Rodgers, but at this price tag he's a total no-brainer. We know Gruden will coach him up, and I'm sure Derek Carr will enjoy Jordy on one side, with Amari Cooper on the other. There are contrasting -- but potentially favorable -- skillsets at play here.
RAIDERS GRADE: A-
8. TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins gets 2 years, $10 million from the Jaguars.
I think ASJ became a bit overrated in New York -- that's what happens when your team is projected to go 0-16, then you play halfway decent -- but this is a very affordable contract for Jacksonville, as they continue to change the public perception of a franchise that used to be the butt of the joke. I don't view ASJ as a top-tier tight end, but he's a reasonably good football player and the Jags paid a fair price for his services.
JAGUARS GRADE: B
HOT TAKES TEAM: "I think Eric Ebron is better than Seferian-Jenkins." - Me
"Ebron is a wayyyy better athlete; just can't stay healthy." - DJ
"I like him, but he probably wants a lot of money." - Billy
"He's the best available, though."
9. DT Haloti Ngata signs a 1-year, $3 million deal with the Eagles.
I know Haloti is an old man, but interior defensive linemen can have long lifespans like kickers, punters and (sometimes) quarterbacks. Has his play deteriorated this much, that he's only getting $3 mil for a season? Or is this well-liked vet looking for one last shot at a Super Bowl? Probably a little bit of both. Nevertheless, this particular Eagles group is defined by high-character guys. Ngata will fit right in.
EAGLES GRADE: B
Thursday, March 15, 2018
Meet Our "Hot Takes Team" - Some of the Best and Brightest Sports Minds in the Country
Over the course of the past few days, the Hot Takes Team has worked diligently, reading hundreds of articles and updates to stay step-for-step with the rapid-fire action of NFL Free Agency. Please check out their quotes and analysis in Part I of our series. When you're done with that, why not take a look at Part II? We hope to bring you Part III by the end of the week. We'd also like to thank our readers, as always.
With housekeeping out of the way, please allow us the opportunity to introduce our best and brightest...
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| Billy V (2nd from right) enjoying his crosstown rivals, the Mets. |
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| Frank glaring in at the signs for Adelphi. |
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| DJ playing football in college. |
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| Stevo ready to mash one in college. |
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| Doug the fearsome lax player. |
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| Jimmy (center) with his long-time baseball teammates. |
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| Jamie (right) winning, as always. |
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| Matt doing some scouting for our site at Fenway. |
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| What a lefty stroke. Chris demolishes softballs. |
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| Dan (center) celebrating back-to-back titles. |
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| There's John...looking down on Sandy Alderson. |
Wednesday, March 14, 2018
NFL Free Agent Frenzy, Part II: Report Cards for the 2nd Wave of Signings
Earlier in the day I was spewing venom because my Jets didn't land Kirk Cousins, leaving them with "rumored" interest in Teddy Bridgewater or Josh McCown. Excuse me if I didn't find those consolation names exciting after losing out on a talented quarterback in his prime. If you didn't catch my analysis (and the invaluable contributions of my Hot Takes Team), by all means, please go back and check out Volume I.
Here we are, hours later, and the Jets are in an entirely different position. Let's take a look at how things changed, rather quickly...
1. CB Trumaine Johnson signs with the Jets for $15 million per season (years undisclosed).
Considered by most to be the premier corner on the market, the Jets now have their best CB in his prime since Darrelle Revis. Veteran Morris Claiborne did an admirable job as New York's CB1 last season, but he's injury-prone and inconsistent when considering the entirety of his enigmatic career. GM Mike Maccagnan may very well bring Claiborne back as his CB2; but in the meantime, Johnson joins safeties Jamal Adams and Marcus Maye in what looks to be a very promising secondary for DB-obsessed head coach Todd Bowles.
$15 million seems like an awful lot per season, though.
JETS GRADE: B
HOT TAKES TEAM: "There we go Money Magsssss! We needed a corner. That's a huge signing -- Johnson is an awesome player relative to his position." - DJ Toby & The Valeriano Brothers
2. ILB Avery Williamson also expected to sign with the Jets.
Sometimes individual defensive players can get lost in the shuffle of their team's schemes, but Williamson has always stood out to me during Titans telecasts. He has natural instincts at the inside linebacker position, is an elite run-stuffer and flies to the ball without hesitation or second-guessing. He's a decisive defensive playmaker, and there's absolutely no way to knock the Jets' interest in him.
Here's a very interesting blurb on him, courtesy of Rotoworld.com: "Williams just turned 26 last week and was the top free-agent inside linebacker on the market. A 59-game starter for the Titans the last four seasons since being drafted in the fifth round, Williamson had a breakout 2017, grading out as Pro Football Focus' No. 3 inside linebacker, behind only Luke Kuechly and Bobby Wagner."
That'll put a smile on the face of a fellow Jet fan.
JETS GRADE: A
HOT TAKES TEAM: "Let's go, baby! We needed a legit linebacker because Demario Davis is gone. I like Williamson, fellas. We needed a corner. We needed a linebacker. The Jets' defense is looking stacked." - The Valeriano Brothers
3. RB Isaiah Crowell signs with the Jets for three years (details still unclear).
I like the Williamson move the best of the three. Crowell is a decent professional running back, but I question both his vision and ball security. He flashes legitimate explosiveness at times, but I'm not sure he can thrive in the Jets' offensive system with questionable offensive line play and uncertainty at the quarterback position. Judging Crowell's potential value will be easier after New York rounds out its offensive personnel.
At least one thing is for sure: Crowell is clearly better than recent retiree, Matt Forte. It's an upgrade for the Jets, no matter how you look at it.
JETS GRADE: B-
HOT TAKES TEAM: (Prior to Johnson and Williamson) "We made a move!!!" - Frank Valeriano
"I like Crowell! He was underutilized in Cleveland, and now he's extra motivated." - DJ
"You sure it's not Germane Crowell? Never know with the Jets." - Sam Ytuarte, former all-state left-handed pitcher and legendary playground quarterback
"Vomit. I don't even like Crowell. Fumbles a lot. Not shifty. Runs into walls. He blows. I hate everything." - Me
"John, just go put on the spring training game, relax with a beer and watch some of the Mets get injured." - DJ
4. CB Malcolm Butler gets 5 years, $61 million from the Titans.
That Super Bowl controversy still creeps me out. Was Butler insignificant enough for Bill Belichick to feel comfortable benching him for the biggest game in the world? Obviously there were some off-field issues at play, but are Butler's on-field skills already in decline? Ya gotta hand it to Belicheat; he really knows how to get inside people's heads. I'm not sure what to think about Butler at this point.
One thing's for sure -- $12.2 million per season seems a tad too high to me. I think Tennessee got a little overexcited, here. Nevertheless, I know Butler's (at least) a very solid player at his position.
TITANS GRADE: B-
5. RB Dion Lewis gets 4 years, $20 million, also from the Titans.
No need to go crazy, here. This is an affordable, smart move. Lewis' legs are fresher than DeMarco Murray's (who will be signing elsewhere), and the former will create a nice mix-and-match combo with the ever-dangerous Derrick Henry.
TITANS GRADE: A
6. WR Danny Amendola signs for 2 years, $12 million with the Dolphins.
Is that price tag a joke? Maccagnan and the Jets were asleep at the wheel on this one. With the most cap space on the market, New York should have offered $15 million and stolen away this talented veteran receiver. The knock on Amendola is obvious -- he gets hurt, often -- but this contract is just too agreeable to pass up. There's very little risk for the Dolphins, here. Great move.
DOLPHINS GRADE: A-
7. DE Muhammad Wilkerson inks a 1-year deal with the Packers for $5 million.
One word...steal.
"Mo-Will" got tired of playing and losing in New York, so he mailed it in the past couple years. The change of scenery will work wonders for him. You can dog it around Todd Bowles, Maccagnan and Christian Hackenberg, but that shit ain't gonna fly with Mike McCarthy, Aaron Rodgers and Clay Matthews. The Packers are a higher-level organization. A serious organization. Mo-Will will show them what he's capable of, and Green Bay will be laughing about that measly $5 million tab. This is a great match for both sides.
PACKERS GRADE: A-
8 and 9. The Jets sign QBs Josh McCown and Teddy Bridgewater to 1-year deals.
Let the competition begin. The Jets may very well draft another quarterback, too. Bridgewater obviously has more upside because of his age, but McCown is coming off one of the best years of his lengthy professional career. In the back of my mind, I kind of feel like the Jets organization views McCown as a future high-level coach. Maybe an eventual replacement for overmatched Bowles? Quarterbacks coach?
We'll see, but, Maccagnan did what he had to do with Cousins, Brees and Keenum off the market. That doesn't mean I'm happy about the situation, though.
HOT TAKES TEAM: "McCown's not locked into the starting spot, now." - Billy
"Gotta draft the best quarterback available. Let him hold the clipboard year one. Try to improve your offensive line in the meantime." - Doug Muhlbauer
"I don't think we're drafting a quarterback. I want us to trade down to get some monster offensive linemen. Trade with the Bills." - DJ
"You are 100 percent right. We're not taking a quarterback at No. 6, but we are definitely taking one within the first two rounds. What if we traded down and got Baker Mayfield at like 15?" - Billy
"I'm okay with that as long as we have another first-round pick."
"I read that the Jets LOVE Mayfield." - Chris Dickie
"If we don't take a quarterback in the first round, you're all dead." - Me
"I agree, John. Look around the NFL - 70 percent of the starters are first-round picks." - Billy
"Teddy was a first-round pick." - DJ
Here we are, hours later, and the Jets are in an entirely different position. Let's take a look at how things changed, rather quickly...
1. CB Trumaine Johnson signs with the Jets for $15 million per season (years undisclosed).
Considered by most to be the premier corner on the market, the Jets now have their best CB in his prime since Darrelle Revis. Veteran Morris Claiborne did an admirable job as New York's CB1 last season, but he's injury-prone and inconsistent when considering the entirety of his enigmatic career. GM Mike Maccagnan may very well bring Claiborne back as his CB2; but in the meantime, Johnson joins safeties Jamal Adams and Marcus Maye in what looks to be a very promising secondary for DB-obsessed head coach Todd Bowles.
$15 million seems like an awful lot per season, though.
JETS GRADE: B
HOT TAKES TEAM: "There we go Money Magsssss! We needed a corner. That's a huge signing -- Johnson is an awesome player relative to his position." - DJ Toby & The Valeriano Brothers
2. ILB Avery Williamson also expected to sign with the Jets.
Sometimes individual defensive players can get lost in the shuffle of their team's schemes, but Williamson has always stood out to me during Titans telecasts. He has natural instincts at the inside linebacker position, is an elite run-stuffer and flies to the ball without hesitation or second-guessing. He's a decisive defensive playmaker, and there's absolutely no way to knock the Jets' interest in him.
Here's a very interesting blurb on him, courtesy of Rotoworld.com: "Williams just turned 26 last week and was the top free-agent inside linebacker on the market. A 59-game starter for the Titans the last four seasons since being drafted in the fifth round, Williamson had a breakout 2017, grading out as Pro Football Focus' No. 3 inside linebacker, behind only Luke Kuechly and Bobby Wagner."
That'll put a smile on the face of a fellow Jet fan.
JETS GRADE: A
HOT TAKES TEAM: "Let's go, baby! We needed a legit linebacker because Demario Davis is gone. I like Williamson, fellas. We needed a corner. We needed a linebacker. The Jets' defense is looking stacked." - The Valeriano Brothers
3. RB Isaiah Crowell signs with the Jets for three years (details still unclear).
I like the Williamson move the best of the three. Crowell is a decent professional running back, but I question both his vision and ball security. He flashes legitimate explosiveness at times, but I'm not sure he can thrive in the Jets' offensive system with questionable offensive line play and uncertainty at the quarterback position. Judging Crowell's potential value will be easier after New York rounds out its offensive personnel.
At least one thing is for sure: Crowell is clearly better than recent retiree, Matt Forte. It's an upgrade for the Jets, no matter how you look at it.
JETS GRADE: B-
HOT TAKES TEAM: (Prior to Johnson and Williamson) "We made a move!!!" - Frank Valeriano
"I like Crowell! He was underutilized in Cleveland, and now he's extra motivated." - DJ
"You sure it's not Germane Crowell? Never know with the Jets." - Sam Ytuarte, former all-state left-handed pitcher and legendary playground quarterback
"Vomit. I don't even like Crowell. Fumbles a lot. Not shifty. Runs into walls. He blows. I hate everything." - Me
"John, just go put on the spring training game, relax with a beer and watch some of the Mets get injured." - DJ
4. CB Malcolm Butler gets 5 years, $61 million from the Titans.
That Super Bowl controversy still creeps me out. Was Butler insignificant enough for Bill Belichick to feel comfortable benching him for the biggest game in the world? Obviously there were some off-field issues at play, but are Butler's on-field skills already in decline? Ya gotta hand it to Belicheat; he really knows how to get inside people's heads. I'm not sure what to think about Butler at this point.
One thing's for sure -- $12.2 million per season seems a tad too high to me. I think Tennessee got a little overexcited, here. Nevertheless, I know Butler's (at least) a very solid player at his position.
TITANS GRADE: B-
5. RB Dion Lewis gets 4 years, $20 million, also from the Titans.
No need to go crazy, here. This is an affordable, smart move. Lewis' legs are fresher than DeMarco Murray's (who will be signing elsewhere), and the former will create a nice mix-and-match combo with the ever-dangerous Derrick Henry.
TITANS GRADE: A
6. WR Danny Amendola signs for 2 years, $12 million with the Dolphins.
Is that price tag a joke? Maccagnan and the Jets were asleep at the wheel on this one. With the most cap space on the market, New York should have offered $15 million and stolen away this talented veteran receiver. The knock on Amendola is obvious -- he gets hurt, often -- but this contract is just too agreeable to pass up. There's very little risk for the Dolphins, here. Great move.
DOLPHINS GRADE: A-
7. DE Muhammad Wilkerson inks a 1-year deal with the Packers for $5 million.
One word...steal.
"Mo-Will" got tired of playing and losing in New York, so he mailed it in the past couple years. The change of scenery will work wonders for him. You can dog it around Todd Bowles, Maccagnan and Christian Hackenberg, but that shit ain't gonna fly with Mike McCarthy, Aaron Rodgers and Clay Matthews. The Packers are a higher-level organization. A serious organization. Mo-Will will show them what he's capable of, and Green Bay will be laughing about that measly $5 million tab. This is a great match for both sides.
PACKERS GRADE: A-
8 and 9. The Jets sign QBs Josh McCown and Teddy Bridgewater to 1-year deals.
Let the competition begin. The Jets may very well draft another quarterback, too. Bridgewater obviously has more upside because of his age, but McCown is coming off one of the best years of his lengthy professional career. In the back of my mind, I kind of feel like the Jets organization views McCown as a future high-level coach. Maybe an eventual replacement for overmatched Bowles? Quarterbacks coach?
We'll see, but, Maccagnan did what he had to do with Cousins, Brees and Keenum off the market. That doesn't mean I'm happy about the situation, though.
HOT TAKES TEAM: "McCown's not locked into the starting spot, now." - Billy
"Gotta draft the best quarterback available. Let him hold the clipboard year one. Try to improve your offensive line in the meantime." - Doug Muhlbauer
"I don't think we're drafting a quarterback. I want us to trade down to get some monster offensive linemen. Trade with the Bills." - DJ
"You are 100 percent right. We're not taking a quarterback at No. 6, but we are definitely taking one within the first two rounds. What if we traded down and got Baker Mayfield at like 15?" - Billy
"I'm okay with that as long as we have another first-round pick."
"I read that the Jets LOVE Mayfield." - Chris Dickie
"If we don't take a quarterback in the first round, you're all dead." - Me
"I agree, John. Look around the NFL - 70 percent of the starters are first-round picks." - Billy
"Teddy was a first-round pick." - DJ
Tuesday, March 13, 2018
NFL Free Agency Frenzy: Report Cards for Today's Big Spenders
How quickly will Kirk Cousins sign on the dotted line? Is Drew Brees a lock to re-sign with the Saints? What about big names like Ndamukong Suh, Jimmy Graham and DeMarco Murray? Let's get some answers, right now.
1. WR Sammy Watkins signs a 3-year, $48 million deal with the Chiefs.
When Watkins first entered the league as a Buffalo Bill, he looked like he could emerge as a legitimate, all-around No. 1 receiver. However, various injuries and inconsistency of performance have relegated him to more of a WR2. That works out well in this case because blazer Tyreek Hill should remain Kansas City's No. 1 wideout. Watkins fell behind Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp last season with the Rams, but this isn't a bad landing spot for him as Hill, star TE Travis Kelce and emerging RB Kareem Hunt will take plenty of defensive attention away from him.
The plan is clear -- the Chiefs want to make Pat Mahomes' transition to starter as smooth as possible. The more dangerous weapons, the easier the kid's job will be.
CHIEFS GRADE: B-
2. WR Allen Robinson signs a 3-year, $42 million deal with the Bears.
Quick thought - I'd rather have Robinson for $6 million less than Watkins, no?
Robinson is a bit of a wild card, coming off a season-long injury and disappointing year before that, but he's a talented kid who can be particularly good in the redzone. He must be a glutton for punishment, though. During the preseason he was complaining about Blake Bortles' inaccurate passing in Jacksonville, and now he's running routes for Mitchell Trubisky?
This is clearly a financial decision by Robinson, but it could be very frustrating for his football-playing career. It's a no-brainer move from Chicago's perspective, but I don't like it for A-Rob.
BEARS GRADE: B+
Random Hot Take From Our Team: "I love that we (the Jets) have the 2nd-most cap space and we're only rumored to be interested in one player." - DJ Toby, former cornerback at Maritime College and lacrosse captain
3. QB Drew Brees re-signs with the Saints for 2 years, $50 million.
Some "mutual interest" was reported with the Vikings, but most felt that was customary gamesmanship. Brees and Sean Payton have formed an iconic coach-quarterback combo, and Breezy is just too comfortable for change at this point. Besides, New Orleans was one freak Stefon Diggs TD away from another shot at the Super Bowl.
SAINTS GRADE: A+
Random Hot Take From Our Team: "Why would Kirk Cousins' team leak that he's "leaning" in favor of the Vikings? I think they are trying to leverage more money out of the Jets." - Frank Valeriano, former pitcher at Adelphi University
4. QB Kirk Cousins signs a 3-year, $84 million deal with the Vikings.
And like that, all of the drama ends. This deal makes complete sense for both sides -- Cousins escapes losing cultures in Washington and New York, and the Vikings ink a quarterback who gives them far more security than Case Keenum, Teddy Bridgewater or Sam Bradford ever could. The Jets are too far away from winning, so Cousins went with Diggs, Adam Thielen, Kyle Rudolph and Dalvin Cook. Can't blame the guy one bit. The Vikes are once again an NFC Championship contender.
VIKINGS GRADE: A
Random Hot Takes From Our Team: "[The Jets] will be 6-10 next year. No one even MET with us! We're like the kid in high school who ate by himself at lunch every day." -DJ Toby
"Damn, almost $30 million a year...for the 14th-best quarterback in the league." - Steven Summer, legendary first baseman out of Mercy College
"I would love Josh Rosen for the Jets. I want our own franchise guy. Rosen won't need more than one year of development; he is extremely polished. We can add wide receivers for nothing. If not, we'll draft Baker Mayfield." - Billy Valeriano, former right fielder for Dowling College
"Cousins was not worth that price. He's a mid-level quarterback with zero playoff wins. 4-19 record against winning teams. Jets should draft a QB and use their cap space on offensive linemen." - Doug Muhlbauer, former SUNY Cortland lacrosse player
"Part of me enjoys seeing Cousins get $86 million guaranteed. Gets drafted by the same team who mortgaged everything on RGIII in the first round. They don't really give him a chance to compete for the starting job. When he finally does get his opportunity, he performs well. Redskins decide to get cheap and don't pay him. Then he plays under the franchise tag...twice. Kirk Cousins has done everything the right way. He deserves this." - Jimmy Kelly, former all-county shortstop and soccer defenseman
"I WANT REX RYAN BACK!" - DJ Toby
"Re-sign Josh McCown and load up on offensive linemen and skill players." - Doug Muhlbauer
"Cousins is dead to me." - Frank Valeriano
"John Frascella is contemplating if killing himself is the best option." - Chris Dickie, softball cleanup hitter
5. G Andrew Norwell gets 5 years and $66.5 million from the Jaguars.
I'm not going to sit here and act like I'm an expert on individual offensive linemen. I will say, Norwell is coming from Carolina where Cam Newton + whatever running back end up with solid all-around rushing numbers. Doug Marrone clearly knows what he's doing, and I'm sure Leonard Fournette will be happy to have Norwell in front of him. Jacksonville is looking to take another meaningful step forward, and offensive linemen are generally a sound financial and strategic investment.
JAGUARS GRADE: B (price tag seems a bit too high)
6. WR Paul Richardson gets 5 years and $40 million from the Redskins.
Financially this seems like a better contract than Watkins and Robinson, but I'm not sure I like Richardson's skillset in relation to Alex Smith's throwing patterns. Richardson is best deep down the field, and we all know Smith lives on intermediate routes and throws. On the plus side, in the past couple years Smith has opened up a little more due to Tyreek Hill's explosive downfield ability. He'll look to develop a similar (occasional) chemistry with Richardson. Jordan Reed, Jamison Crowder, Josh Doctson and Chris Thompson are Smith's other expected weapons.
REDSKINS GRADE: B
7. QB Sam Bradford gets 2 years, $40 million from the Cardinals.
Looks like the Cards are going to be one of the worst teams in the NFL. Has Sam Bradford ever been a good thing for any organization? How did it go with the Rams, Eagles and Vikings? All he does is get hurt and under-perform. I was never a big Carson Palmer fan, but the recent retiree is definitely better than Bradford. Arizona is in big, big trouble.
And...FORTY MILLION? SERIOUSLY? FOR THIS GUY? COME ON.
CARDINALS GRADE: F
8. QB Case Keenum signs for 2 years, $36 million with the Broncos.
Hahahahaha. Bradford gets 2 years, 40 mil, and poor Keenum gets only 36. That's a travesty. Keenum stayed healthy and played extremely well for the Vikings this past season. He was a legitimate mid-level MVP candidate. Meanwhile, again, Bradford gets hurt every year and doesn't play very well, even when he is out there. I don't feel like looking up the agents, but Bradford's deserves a raise. Keenum's should probably get canned.
Easy move for John Elway and the Broncos. They knew they weren't getting Brees or Cousins, so Keenum is a very reasonable upgrade over Trevor Siemian, Brock Osweiler and megabust Paxton Lynch.
Wishing Keenum the best of luck because the Vikings had some choice words for him on his way out the door. Totally unprofessional and uncalled for. Show some appreciation for a guy who played his heart out for you.
BRONCOS GRADE: B+
Hot Take From Our Team: "Can't believe Mike Zimmer took a shot at Keenum. He essentially said that he didn't know which version of him he would get -- the one from the Rams, or the successful one he saw this season. That was unnecessary. He questioned if he could be the same type of QB this season." - Matt DeSantis, Director of Marketing
9. QB Teddy Bridgewater is close to signing with the Jets.
This makes perfect sense, as the Jets were unable to land Cousins, and the other ex-Vikings already signed contracts elsewhere. Of course Bridgewater's long-term health is a major concern, but I'd rather have him than Bradford, going forward. His performance level is a total question mark, but the landing spot is a win-win for both sides. The Jets needed a quarterback -- any quarterback, really -- with some upside, and Bridgewater wanted a legit opportunity to be a No. 1 guy. We'll see if the Jets also re-sign Josh McCown and/or draft a QB in the first round this year.
JETS GRADE: B-
Random Hot Takes From Our Team: "I kind of like Teddy -- he has the most upside besides Cousins. He still hasn't peaked yet." - DJ Toby
"This is a good spot for Teddy, considering that he has to rebuild his value. He wasn't bad prior to the injury. Wouldn't mind re-signing McCown, either." - Jamie Garland, former pitcher at C.W. Post
"It would be nice if Robby Anderson could stop driving 130 MPH and running from the cops." - Chris Dickie
1. WR Sammy Watkins signs a 3-year, $48 million deal with the Chiefs.
When Watkins first entered the league as a Buffalo Bill, he looked like he could emerge as a legitimate, all-around No. 1 receiver. However, various injuries and inconsistency of performance have relegated him to more of a WR2. That works out well in this case because blazer Tyreek Hill should remain Kansas City's No. 1 wideout. Watkins fell behind Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp last season with the Rams, but this isn't a bad landing spot for him as Hill, star TE Travis Kelce and emerging RB Kareem Hunt will take plenty of defensive attention away from him.
The plan is clear -- the Chiefs want to make Pat Mahomes' transition to starter as smooth as possible. The more dangerous weapons, the easier the kid's job will be.
CHIEFS GRADE: B-
2. WR Allen Robinson signs a 3-year, $42 million deal with the Bears.
Quick thought - I'd rather have Robinson for $6 million less than Watkins, no?
Robinson is a bit of a wild card, coming off a season-long injury and disappointing year before that, but he's a talented kid who can be particularly good in the redzone. He must be a glutton for punishment, though. During the preseason he was complaining about Blake Bortles' inaccurate passing in Jacksonville, and now he's running routes for Mitchell Trubisky?
This is clearly a financial decision by Robinson, but it could be very frustrating for his football-playing career. It's a no-brainer move from Chicago's perspective, but I don't like it for A-Rob.
BEARS GRADE: B+
Random Hot Take From Our Team: "I love that we (the Jets) have the 2nd-most cap space and we're only rumored to be interested in one player." - DJ Toby, former cornerback at Maritime College and lacrosse captain
3. QB Drew Brees re-signs with the Saints for 2 years, $50 million.
Some "mutual interest" was reported with the Vikings, but most felt that was customary gamesmanship. Brees and Sean Payton have formed an iconic coach-quarterback combo, and Breezy is just too comfortable for change at this point. Besides, New Orleans was one freak Stefon Diggs TD away from another shot at the Super Bowl.
SAINTS GRADE: A+
Random Hot Take From Our Team: "Why would Kirk Cousins' team leak that he's "leaning" in favor of the Vikings? I think they are trying to leverage more money out of the Jets." - Frank Valeriano, former pitcher at Adelphi University
4. QB Kirk Cousins signs a 3-year, $84 million deal with the Vikings.
And like that, all of the drama ends. This deal makes complete sense for both sides -- Cousins escapes losing cultures in Washington and New York, and the Vikings ink a quarterback who gives them far more security than Case Keenum, Teddy Bridgewater or Sam Bradford ever could. The Jets are too far away from winning, so Cousins went with Diggs, Adam Thielen, Kyle Rudolph and Dalvin Cook. Can't blame the guy one bit. The Vikes are once again an NFC Championship contender.
VIKINGS GRADE: A
Random Hot Takes From Our Team: "[The Jets] will be 6-10 next year. No one even MET with us! We're like the kid in high school who ate by himself at lunch every day." -DJ Toby
"Damn, almost $30 million a year...for the 14th-best quarterback in the league." - Steven Summer, legendary first baseman out of Mercy College
"I would love Josh Rosen for the Jets. I want our own franchise guy. Rosen won't need more than one year of development; he is extremely polished. We can add wide receivers for nothing. If not, we'll draft Baker Mayfield." - Billy Valeriano, former right fielder for Dowling College
"Cousins was not worth that price. He's a mid-level quarterback with zero playoff wins. 4-19 record against winning teams. Jets should draft a QB and use their cap space on offensive linemen." - Doug Muhlbauer, former SUNY Cortland lacrosse player
"Part of me enjoys seeing Cousins get $86 million guaranteed. Gets drafted by the same team who mortgaged everything on RGIII in the first round. They don't really give him a chance to compete for the starting job. When he finally does get his opportunity, he performs well. Redskins decide to get cheap and don't pay him. Then he plays under the franchise tag...twice. Kirk Cousins has done everything the right way. He deserves this." - Jimmy Kelly, former all-county shortstop and soccer defenseman
"I WANT REX RYAN BACK!" - DJ Toby
"Re-sign Josh McCown and load up on offensive linemen and skill players." - Doug Muhlbauer
"Cousins is dead to me." - Frank Valeriano
"John Frascella is contemplating if killing himself is the best option." - Chris Dickie, softball cleanup hitter
5. G Andrew Norwell gets 5 years and $66.5 million from the Jaguars.
I'm not going to sit here and act like I'm an expert on individual offensive linemen. I will say, Norwell is coming from Carolina where Cam Newton + whatever running back end up with solid all-around rushing numbers. Doug Marrone clearly knows what he's doing, and I'm sure Leonard Fournette will be happy to have Norwell in front of him. Jacksonville is looking to take another meaningful step forward, and offensive linemen are generally a sound financial and strategic investment.
JAGUARS GRADE: B (price tag seems a bit too high)
6. WR Paul Richardson gets 5 years and $40 million from the Redskins.
Financially this seems like a better contract than Watkins and Robinson, but I'm not sure I like Richardson's skillset in relation to Alex Smith's throwing patterns. Richardson is best deep down the field, and we all know Smith lives on intermediate routes and throws. On the plus side, in the past couple years Smith has opened up a little more due to Tyreek Hill's explosive downfield ability. He'll look to develop a similar (occasional) chemistry with Richardson. Jordan Reed, Jamison Crowder, Josh Doctson and Chris Thompson are Smith's other expected weapons.
REDSKINS GRADE: B
7. QB Sam Bradford gets 2 years, $40 million from the Cardinals.
Looks like the Cards are going to be one of the worst teams in the NFL. Has Sam Bradford ever been a good thing for any organization? How did it go with the Rams, Eagles and Vikings? All he does is get hurt and under-perform. I was never a big Carson Palmer fan, but the recent retiree is definitely better than Bradford. Arizona is in big, big trouble.
And...FORTY MILLION? SERIOUSLY? FOR THIS GUY? COME ON.
CARDINALS GRADE: F
8. QB Case Keenum signs for 2 years, $36 million with the Broncos.
Hahahahaha. Bradford gets 2 years, 40 mil, and poor Keenum gets only 36. That's a travesty. Keenum stayed healthy and played extremely well for the Vikings this past season. He was a legitimate mid-level MVP candidate. Meanwhile, again, Bradford gets hurt every year and doesn't play very well, even when he is out there. I don't feel like looking up the agents, but Bradford's deserves a raise. Keenum's should probably get canned.
Easy move for John Elway and the Broncos. They knew they weren't getting Brees or Cousins, so Keenum is a very reasonable upgrade over Trevor Siemian, Brock Osweiler and megabust Paxton Lynch.
Wishing Keenum the best of luck because the Vikings had some choice words for him on his way out the door. Totally unprofessional and uncalled for. Show some appreciation for a guy who played his heart out for you.
BRONCOS GRADE: B+
Hot Take From Our Team: "Can't believe Mike Zimmer took a shot at Keenum. He essentially said that he didn't know which version of him he would get -- the one from the Rams, or the successful one he saw this season. That was unnecessary. He questioned if he could be the same type of QB this season." - Matt DeSantis, Director of Marketing
9. QB Teddy Bridgewater is close to signing with the Jets.
This makes perfect sense, as the Jets were unable to land Cousins, and the other ex-Vikings already signed contracts elsewhere. Of course Bridgewater's long-term health is a major concern, but I'd rather have him than Bradford, going forward. His performance level is a total question mark, but the landing spot is a win-win for both sides. The Jets needed a quarterback -- any quarterback, really -- with some upside, and Bridgewater wanted a legit opportunity to be a No. 1 guy. We'll see if the Jets also re-sign Josh McCown and/or draft a QB in the first round this year.
JETS GRADE: B-
Random Hot Takes From Our Team: "I kind of like Teddy -- he has the most upside besides Cousins. He still hasn't peaked yet." - DJ Toby
"This is a good spot for Teddy, considering that he has to rebuild his value. He wasn't bad prior to the injury. Wouldn't mind re-signing McCown, either." - Jamie Garland, former pitcher at C.W. Post
"It would be nice if Robby Anderson could stop driving 130 MPH and running from the cops." - Chris Dickie
Monday, March 12, 2018
NL East Predictions: Should We Just Give the Nationals the Division, Now?
When front-line starter Jake Arrieta was initially rumored to have interest from the Nationals, I was ready to wrap up the NL East, throw on a bow and ship it over to Washington. Luckily for fans of the division's other teams, the all-star right-hander ultimately signed a three-year, $75 million deal with the Philadelphia Phillies.
Philly's statement-making acquisition doesn't change the fact that the Nats are the clear front-runners to win this division, but at least it saves everyone the trouble of having to face Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez and Arrieta in the same rotation.
Does this big-money move mean President Andy MacPhail and GM Matt Klentak are going for it this year? The Phils haven't won more than 73 games in any of their past five seasons; perhaps the front office is simply fed up. Or is this the beginning of a master plan that leads to an all-in pitch to future free agent superstar Bryce Harper?
Time will tell. Okay, let's get into my projections...
(Oh, by the way, don't forget to check out my AL East predictions.)
5. Miami Marlins - Frascella's projection: 59-103
Derek Jeter is going all Sam Hinkie on us. I feel like "The Process" is starting all over again, this time in Miami. Gone are the franchise's elite players -- Giancarlo Stanton, Marcell Ozuna, Christian Yelich and Dee Gordon -- and manager Don Mattingly is left with J.T. Riddle and Derek Dietrich.
Who? Yeah, that's exactly the point.
This is a classic hatchet job. The Marlins are tanking real hard, and everybody knows exactly what's going on. C J.T. Realmuto and 1B Justin Bour have become the de facto leaders of this depleted offense, while Dan Straily and Jose Urena will be asked to carry Miami's unsightly pitching staff. No need to go on, here.
4. Atlanta Braves - Frascella's projection: 73-89
Not much has changed from last year. Freddie Freeman continues to be Atlanta's franchise player, with Ender Inciarte and Nick Markakis as his unspectacular offensive sidekicks. Manager Brian Snitker -- I really don't know who that is -- will be looking for youngsters Ozzie Albies, Dansby Swanson, Johan Camargo and Ronald Acuna to step up a level this season. Acuna, Camargo and Albies all look quite promising to me. In a couple of years we could be looking at 85+ wins here.
On the bump, who knows what to expect from Julio Teheran? His results have been all over the place in the past 4-5 seasons. I don't think he'll bounce back much because his stuff simply isn't sharp any more. He's a grinder now, and soft-tossing grinders get hammered in today's MLB climate. When I see Brandon McCarthy and Scott Kazmir in a rotation, I think old guys who will get injured.
In the pen, ya gotta like the hard-throwing duo of Jose Ramirez and Arodys Vizcaino. These kids don't mess around when they take the ball, and they have the pure stuff to support their bravado.
Be patient, Braves fans. It isn't your time...yet.
3. New York Mets - Frascella's projection: 78-84
The Wilpons and GM Sandy Alderson just don't want to win. Either that or they're the three-headed equivalent of The Stooges.
I look around the league and I see the Yankees trading for Stanton. The Sox shell out for J.D. Martinez. The Cards nab Ozuna. Even the Padres empty the bank on Eric Hosmer. These are big-time ballplayers who are ready to make an immediate impact.
So what do the lowly Mets do? They get Adrian Gonzalez, Todd Frazier and Jason Vargas, three old men who are replacement-level players. Alderson could have done absolutely nothing and gotten the same production from Wilmer Flores, Brandon Nimmo and Zack Wheeler (with Jay Bruce at first). These are purely "name" moves. Nothing more. They have no real impact. They may, in fact, be negatives.
Even worse, franchise cornerstone Michael Conforto is entering the season with a continuing shoulder issue. He's due back around May 1, but will he truly be himself?
The only bright spots of the offseason are new manager Mickey Callaway and pitching coach Dave Eiland. The hope is that these experienced pitching experts can straighten out some of New York's wild cards like Wheeler, Matt Harvey, Steven Matz, Robert Gsellman and Rafael Montero. Not a chance they can all be fixed, though.
In the end, we all know the deal -- this club can only compete for a playoff spot if Noah Syndergaard, Jacob deGrom, Jeurys Familia, Yoenis Cespedes and Bruce all stay healthy and have huge years. And we're talking about the Mets here...so what are the odds of that happening?
2. Philadelphia Phillies - Frascella's projection: 81-81
Slowly but surely, the Phillies' rebuild is taking shape. Carlos Santana and Arrieta have been signed to catch the attention of Bryce Harper (and to help this season, of course). Cesar Hernandez, Maikel Franco and Odubel Herrera are solid big leaguers. Aaron Nola, Jerad Eickhoff and Vince Velasquez provide upside assistance for Arrieta in the rotation.
The back of Philly's bullpen looks strong with Luis Garcia, flamethrower Tommy Hunter and tricky Pat Neshek leading up to ascending closer Hector Neris.
So the big question for rookie manager Gabe Kapler will be his power-hitting outfielder Rhys Hoskins. The 24-year old slugger crushed 18 homers in just 170 major league ABs last season. He was demolishing baseballs. It honestly seemed like he was mashing a homer every game (though the actual math was one HR every 2.7 games).
The obvious question...is production like that even close to sustainable for such a young and green hitter? An effective scouting report has to emerge, right?
We can't possibly have the answers yet, but the Phillies will be counting on Hoskins no matter what. If they want to hold off the Mets for second, Hoskins and Velasquez are the momentum-swinging players who need to deliver.
1. Washington Nationals - Frascella's projection: 94-68
My only concerns pertain to Daniel Murphy: (1) How will his offseason knee surgery affect his performance and (2) Can he really continue producing at an all-world level, anyway? I have to think he comes back to earth some this year.
Elsewhere, ya can't knock this club, particularly considering their competition in this division. Harper, Anthony Rendon and Trea Turner are primetime players, Ryan Zimmerman, Adam Eaton and Howie Kendrick are solid vets and, of course, Scherzer, Strasburg and Gio are as scary as they come atop a rotation. I think Tanner Roark has a bounce-back year as well.
In years past, Washington's obvious weakness was its bullpen; but experienced GM Mike Rizzo has cleaned up a mess with Sean Doolittle, Ryan Madson, Brandon Kintzler and Joaquin Benoit. New manager Dave Martinez has multiple options to close, and Doolittle's left arm allows for him to be used in different high-leverage situations. With Madson and Kintzler both fully capable of closing, perhaps Martinez will occasionally use Doolittle the way Cleveland flexes Andrew Miller.
No matter what the strategy, the Nationals are winning the NL East. Maybe the Mets should have considered signing some real players.
Philly's statement-making acquisition doesn't change the fact that the Nats are the clear front-runners to win this division, but at least it saves everyone the trouble of having to face Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez and Arrieta in the same rotation.
Does this big-money move mean President Andy MacPhail and GM Matt Klentak are going for it this year? The Phils haven't won more than 73 games in any of their past five seasons; perhaps the front office is simply fed up. Or is this the beginning of a master plan that leads to an all-in pitch to future free agent superstar Bryce Harper?
Time will tell. Okay, let's get into my projections...
(Oh, by the way, don't forget to check out my AL East predictions.)
5. Miami Marlins - Frascella's projection: 59-103
Derek Jeter is going all Sam Hinkie on us. I feel like "The Process" is starting all over again, this time in Miami. Gone are the franchise's elite players -- Giancarlo Stanton, Marcell Ozuna, Christian Yelich and Dee Gordon -- and manager Don Mattingly is left with J.T. Riddle and Derek Dietrich.
Who? Yeah, that's exactly the point.
This is a classic hatchet job. The Marlins are tanking real hard, and everybody knows exactly what's going on. C J.T. Realmuto and 1B Justin Bour have become the de facto leaders of this depleted offense, while Dan Straily and Jose Urena will be asked to carry Miami's unsightly pitching staff. No need to go on, here.
4. Atlanta Braves - Frascella's projection: 73-89
Not much has changed from last year. Freddie Freeman continues to be Atlanta's franchise player, with Ender Inciarte and Nick Markakis as his unspectacular offensive sidekicks. Manager Brian Snitker -- I really don't know who that is -- will be looking for youngsters Ozzie Albies, Dansby Swanson, Johan Camargo and Ronald Acuna to step up a level this season. Acuna, Camargo and Albies all look quite promising to me. In a couple of years we could be looking at 85+ wins here.
On the bump, who knows what to expect from Julio Teheran? His results have been all over the place in the past 4-5 seasons. I don't think he'll bounce back much because his stuff simply isn't sharp any more. He's a grinder now, and soft-tossing grinders get hammered in today's MLB climate. When I see Brandon McCarthy and Scott Kazmir in a rotation, I think old guys who will get injured.
In the pen, ya gotta like the hard-throwing duo of Jose Ramirez and Arodys Vizcaino. These kids don't mess around when they take the ball, and they have the pure stuff to support their bravado.
Be patient, Braves fans. It isn't your time...yet.
3. New York Mets - Frascella's projection: 78-84
The Wilpons and GM Sandy Alderson just don't want to win. Either that or they're the three-headed equivalent of The Stooges.
I look around the league and I see the Yankees trading for Stanton. The Sox shell out for J.D. Martinez. The Cards nab Ozuna. Even the Padres empty the bank on Eric Hosmer. These are big-time ballplayers who are ready to make an immediate impact.
So what do the lowly Mets do? They get Adrian Gonzalez, Todd Frazier and Jason Vargas, three old men who are replacement-level players. Alderson could have done absolutely nothing and gotten the same production from Wilmer Flores, Brandon Nimmo and Zack Wheeler (with Jay Bruce at first). These are purely "name" moves. Nothing more. They have no real impact. They may, in fact, be negatives.
Even worse, franchise cornerstone Michael Conforto is entering the season with a continuing shoulder issue. He's due back around May 1, but will he truly be himself?
The only bright spots of the offseason are new manager Mickey Callaway and pitching coach Dave Eiland. The hope is that these experienced pitching experts can straighten out some of New York's wild cards like Wheeler, Matt Harvey, Steven Matz, Robert Gsellman and Rafael Montero. Not a chance they can all be fixed, though.
In the end, we all know the deal -- this club can only compete for a playoff spot if Noah Syndergaard, Jacob deGrom, Jeurys Familia, Yoenis Cespedes and Bruce all stay healthy and have huge years. And we're talking about the Mets here...so what are the odds of that happening?
2. Philadelphia Phillies - Frascella's projection: 81-81
Slowly but surely, the Phillies' rebuild is taking shape. Carlos Santana and Arrieta have been signed to catch the attention of Bryce Harper (and to help this season, of course). Cesar Hernandez, Maikel Franco and Odubel Herrera are solid big leaguers. Aaron Nola, Jerad Eickhoff and Vince Velasquez provide upside assistance for Arrieta in the rotation.
The back of Philly's bullpen looks strong with Luis Garcia, flamethrower Tommy Hunter and tricky Pat Neshek leading up to ascending closer Hector Neris.
So the big question for rookie manager Gabe Kapler will be his power-hitting outfielder Rhys Hoskins. The 24-year old slugger crushed 18 homers in just 170 major league ABs last season. He was demolishing baseballs. It honestly seemed like he was mashing a homer every game (though the actual math was one HR every 2.7 games).
The obvious question...is production like that even close to sustainable for such a young and green hitter? An effective scouting report has to emerge, right?
We can't possibly have the answers yet, but the Phillies will be counting on Hoskins no matter what. If they want to hold off the Mets for second, Hoskins and Velasquez are the momentum-swinging players who need to deliver.
1. Washington Nationals - Frascella's projection: 94-68
My only concerns pertain to Daniel Murphy: (1) How will his offseason knee surgery affect his performance and (2) Can he really continue producing at an all-world level, anyway? I have to think he comes back to earth some this year.
Elsewhere, ya can't knock this club, particularly considering their competition in this division. Harper, Anthony Rendon and Trea Turner are primetime players, Ryan Zimmerman, Adam Eaton and Howie Kendrick are solid vets and, of course, Scherzer, Strasburg and Gio are as scary as they come atop a rotation. I think Tanner Roark has a bounce-back year as well.
In years past, Washington's obvious weakness was its bullpen; but experienced GM Mike Rizzo has cleaned up a mess with Sean Doolittle, Ryan Madson, Brandon Kintzler and Joaquin Benoit. New manager Dave Martinez has multiple options to close, and Doolittle's left arm allows for him to be used in different high-leverage situations. With Madson and Kintzler both fully capable of closing, perhaps Martinez will occasionally use Doolittle the way Cleveland flexes Andrew Miller.
No matter what the strategy, the Nationals are winning the NL East. Maybe the Mets should have considered signing some real players.
Saturday, March 10, 2018
AL East Predictions: Can Stanton and the Yankees Live Up to the Hype?
Headlined by the young, powerful duo of Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez, the New York Yankees already boasted one of the more intimidating lineups in the MLB. Now, with Derek Jeter stripping his Miami Marlins down to spare parts, his former organization is reaping the benefits in the form of super slugger Giancarlo Stanton.
But, as the old saying goes, with great power comes great responsibility.
Will Stanton be able to withstand the unrivaled pressure of performing in New York? Can he possibly meet the expectations of a fanbase dead set on World Series-or-bust?
Over at Fenway, big-money free agent signee J.D. Martinez will be asked to replace the clutch hitting of "Big Papi" David Ortiz. The Boston Red Sox won 93 games en route to an AL East division title last season, but for the second straight year, fell completely flat in the postseason. While youthful all-around talents like Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi and Rafael Devers hold down the fort during the regular season, Martinez will be leaned upon for timely, high-priced production in the playoffs. We'll see if Stanton and Martinez can meet unrealistic expectations.
5. Toronto Blue Jays - Frascella's projection: 74-88
Not too long ago the Jays were defined by their homer-smashing trio of Edwin Encarnacion, Jose "Joey Bats" Bautista and Josh Donaldson. Boasting that triumvirate of studs, Toronto was able to compete with the big boys from New York and Boston.
Now, just a few years later, Donaldson is the only remaining basher. Encarnacion sits in the middle of the Cleveland Indians' order, while Joey Bats sits, unsigned, on the abnormally-crowded free agent market.
I just don't like what President/CEO Mark Shapiro and GM Ross Atkins are doing with this roster. Honestly, they seem out of touch. Troy Tulowitzki and Russell Martin are already past their primes, and now they add Curtis Granderson as a semi-regular in their outfield? Where's the upside, here? Just watch their outfielder strikeouts pile up with Grandy alongside Randal Grichuk, another offseason addition. Grichuk makes a bit more sense -- he's a young player who flashed some pop with the St. Louis Cardinals -- but it seems like his offensive holes are unfixable. Don't pitch this kid middle-in, and you'll be okay. Sliders and fastballs down and away.
Devon Travis is another kid who always seems to generate positive buzz, but never delivers in any meaningful way. I'm not a fan.
On the bright side, I think Justin Smoak has finally turned the corner in his enigmatic career; Kevin Pillar is a solid and spunky all-around ballplayer; Kendrys Morales is a reliable professional hitter, and of course Donaldson is a fine centerpiece.
In the pen, closer Roberto Osuna is coming off a sparkling season, but I don't think he's untouchable long-term. We'll see how the newly-acquired ex-Cardinals closer Seung Hwan Oh bounces back after a disappointing and injury-riddled 2017 campaign.
All in all, no one's afraid of this Blue Jays club. I really can't see a scenario where they make any serious noise in this crowded division.
4. Tampa Bay Rays - Frascella's projection: 76-86
On paper, since the Jays have some recognizable names like Donaldson, Tulowitzki and Stroman, I feel like most would assume they'll finish ahead of the bargain-basement Rays. However, I simply think the Rays are better prepared and managed than the Jays.
President Brian Auld and GM Erik Neander essentially do what Billy Beane has always done in Oakland, but they do it a little better. A handful of years ago, the Rays were ahead of the curve on defensive shifting, and since owner Stu Sternberg's spending is similar to John Fisher's and Stephen Schott's, Auld, Neander and their forward-thinking team are forced to explore creative ways to steal some wins.
Also, I think Kevin Cash is a more open-minded manager than traditionalist John Gibbons.
In terms of personnel, gone are Evan Longoria, Steven Souza, Corey Dickerson, Logan Morrison, Jake Odorizzi and Alex Cobb, among others. But the question is, at this stage in their respective careers, do any of those guys make-or-break a franchise? On the whole they will be missed, but these Rays only won 80 games last year. Let's not get carried away, Dick Vitale.
I mean, let's be real about it -- the Rays need a miracle to outplay the Yankees, Red Sox and Orioles. They might as well save money on payroll, right? Sternberg relies more on Cash, Auld and Neander than his players.
On the field, I think catcher Wilson Ramos is in for a nice bounce-back year. Kevin Kiermaier is probably their best all-around player, and maybe SS Adeiny Hechavarria will make "the leap" this season. But, honestly, there isn't much here offensively.
The strength of Cash's team, if any, will be his pitching. I think Chris Archer puts it all together this year. Front-line ace. Lefty Blake Snell never seems to be able to harness his ability, and Nathan Eovaldi is one of those guys who looks good, but one way or another, the wheels fall off. Jacob Faria is a decent middle-of-the-rotation hurler.
Joining Archer as strengths of this team, are closer Alex Colome and setup man Daniel Hudson. Tampa's pen should be solid at the back, but the middle innings are shaky with scraps like Sergio Romo.
That's probably too many words for a team that isn't making the playoffs.
3. Baltimore Orioles - Frascella's projection: 84-78
If everything breaks right, Buck Showalter's club could return to playoff relevancy. If the bumps in the road are continuous, well, you saw what happened to them last year. After a respectable 89-win total in 2016, the O's tumbled down to 75 in '17. Manny Machado got off to a brutal start. Chris "Crush" Davis was horrible. Mark Trumbo fell from grace, and all-star closer Zach Britton only threw 37 innings.
The bad news is that Britton is again on the DL, and that will last (at least) a couple months. The good news is that Brad Brach, Darren O'Day and Mychal Givens are quality big-league relievers. I'd say Baltimore has to worry more about its starting pitching than relief. SP3 Andrew Cashner is coming off a shockingly good year, but it had to be a fluke. He somehow produced a 3.40 ERA pitching in Texas, despite striking out only 86 in 166 innings. I have a feeling his ERA will approach 5.00 this season.
Kevin Gausman should normalize in the opposite direction, while Dylan Bundy hangs around his 2016 and '17 average stats. After Cashner, the back-end of this rotation is a disaster. Chris Tillman looked finished last year.
The extent of the Orioles' success will hinge on the production levels of unpredictable guys like Trumbo, Davis, Beckham, Gausman and Cashner. I think they come up short.
2. Boston Red Sox - Frascella's projection: 89-73
Some (minor?) concerns that can chop a few wins off your total: (1) Emotional leader and steady contributor Dustin Pedroia (knee) is out until at least mid-May. (2) Drew Pomeranz, who is probably Boston's second-best starting pitcher, is heading into the season with left forearm "tightness." The lumbering left-hander threw over 170 innings back-to-back years, despite never exceeding 97 in his preceding five seasons. I wouldn't touch him in fantasy drafts this year. (3) Smooth, hard-throwing lefty Eduardo Rodriguez (knee) is also beginning the season on the DL. We're not talking about megastars here; but these are three key contributors.
Otherwise, Alex Cora's club should be able to hang with the hated-rival Yanks throughout the year. Martinez, Betts, Benintendi and Devers will lead the way offensively, with respectable contributions from Hanley Ramirez, Xander Bogaerts and perhaps Jackie Bradley.
Superstar Chris Sale heads up Dave Dombrowski's rotation; but you can't be too sure about Pomeranz, veteran David Price or up-and-down righty Rick Porcello. The latter won the 2016 AL Cy Young, only to follow up that career-best campaign with an 11-17 record and an ugly 4.65 ERA. The real Porcello sits somewhere between the two, around 4.25 or 4.30.
Generational closer Craig Kimbrel holds down the 9th inning, with flamethrower Joe Kelly and wild card Carson Smith leading up to him.
This is a rock solid all-around ballclub, and I DO think Martinez will deliver in a major way for them. However, in the end, I don't think the core of this particular Red Sox group can match the moxie of their dire enemies from the Bronx. I just don't like what I saw from Boston in the playoffs the last couple years.
1. New York Yankees - Frascella's projection: 95-67
Right off the bat -- there's just no way Giancarlo Stanton can repeat his production from last season. Now, I know that's not exactly going out on a limb -- the guy hit 59 homers and drove in 132 runs -- but I think we'll see a significant drop off. You might be fooled, considering the favorable transition from massive Marlins Park to the Yankee Stadium bandbox, but the greater considerations are unattainable expectations and meaningful, high-pressure ballgames. The Marlins were never a serious contender last year, and they had about 11 people at their low-intensity games. Stanton was comfortable. Just playing ball and having fun with no expectations or unwanted scrutiny.
Last year he hit .281 with 59 HRs and 132 RBI, and this season I say he drops to .257, 36 HRs and 103 RBI. Not exactly an MVP-type year.
Regardless, the success of Brian Cashman's club clearly doesn't hinge on one player. As I've been saying to many of my friends in private conversations, I believe that Aaron Judge has the chance to become a LeBron James-type star for the MLB. He has the size, intimidation, physical gifts and marketability to become the face of the league. I love his plate coverage -- I mean, who doesn't? -- and the fact that he simply doesn't miss mistakes. If you make your pitches you can get him out, but if you miss, he's going to make you pay. His improvement from 2016 to '17 was unparalleled. Not quite sure I've ever seen anything like that. Judge is just a special talent.
Speaking of improvement, SS Didi Gregorius gets better and better every year. Can you imagine trying to fill the vacated shoes of the legendary Derek Jeter? Well, Didi has been more than up to the task. His homers have jumped from 9 to 20 to 25, RBI from 56 to 70 to 87 and BA from .265 to .276 to .287. That's accelerated development. Didi just has that "it" factor. He's confident and plays with a chip on his shoulder. He's my kind of ballplayer.
Gary Sanchez has the swag of a kid who was born to crush baseballs. Most righties don't have "loose" swings -- that terminology is usually reserved for sweet-swinging lefties like Ken Griffey Jr., Robinson Cano and Rafael Palmeiro -- but Sanchez's stroke looks awfully pretty to me. Sometimes he looks like he's ready to take a nap up there. Don't make a mistake inside to him. He'll hammer the baseball down to the size of a golf ball. It's funny...his approach, swing and demeanor at the plate all remind me of Manny Ramirez; lo and behold, the Marketing Director of John Frascella Sports, Matt "Marty" DeSantis, texted this to me last night.
1B Greg Bird is an unpredictable wild card; 2B Brandon Drury was a nice, sneaky pickup; Brett Gardner is good, if a bit enigmatic, and OF Aaron Hicks was a find. Man, Cashman is a savage. Might be the best exec in all of sports.
On the bump, I don't think Luis Severino's good year-bad year trend will continue. He's ready to string together his second-straight, high-quality season. Masahiro Tanaka and CC Sabathia are calming influences -- though Sabathia will not be able to replicate his success from last year -- and Sonny Gray is above average. I like young lefty Jordan Montgomery. It wouldn't surprise me if he ends up the third-best pitcher in Larry Rothschild's rotation.
Then there's the bullpen. I mean, what can I say? This is one of the most talented bullpens in MLB history. Aroldis Chapman is the hardest thrower in the history of the game. David Robertson has been a top-tier reliever throughout his lengthy career. Dellin Betances may have the best pure stuff in the world. Tommy Kahnle is a flamethrowing bulldog. Chad Green is the best middle reliever in either league, and Adam Warren is a very respectable long man.
In the end, the Red Sox are very good.
But these Yankees are great.